Chapter 996 Western Population Forecast

The First Five-Year Plan focused on the development of the west. Beginning in 1900, East Africa's investment in western towns, mines, and agriculture increased significantly. In particular, cities such as Cabinda, Luanda, Benguela, Kinshasa, and Bangui received far more practical policies. Higher than the Thunderous and Rainy Small Dar es Salaam City Circle, or Oriental Province’s self-financed Greater Mombasa Plan.

“During the First Five-Year Plan, more than 200 new towns will be built in the west, especially in the vacuum area between the coast and the center, that is, Kasai Province, Lunda Province, Okavango Province and other regions. It is planned to introduce a large number of new towns. population to settle and work locally.”

"At the same time, the population size of important cities such as Cabinda and Luanda will be supplemented. During the First Five-Year Plan, at least two emerging cities with a population of more than 500,000 will be built in the west to balance the city of Dar es Salaam in the east. and the city of Mombasa.”

It goes without saying that the two cities must be Luanda and Cabinda, Cabinda corresponds to Mombasa, and Luanda corresponds to Dar es Salaam.

The development of the new western part of East Africa can be compared to the development of the West Coast by the United States, or the development of the Far East by Russia. Of course, the natural conditions of western East Africa are better than those of the western United States, and Russia’s investment in the development and construction of the Far Eastern Empire is very large. It is difficult to achieve results.

“In the past ten years, we have renovated and constructed Angola’s industries and original infrastructure based on the original colony of Angola. With the efforts of millions of black workers and more than four million East African people, Angola’s overall transportation has now improved. , water conservancy, etc. have been fully improved. In contrast, the local population is unevenly distributed, especially the population is too sparse compared to the central and eastern areas, and the situation of sparsely populated areas is very serious. "

With a population of four million (not counting black people), this level is even lower than that of Russian Siberia. In the last Russian census in 1897, the total population of Russian Siberia was more than five million, close to six million.

So Ernst said: "During the First Five-Year Plan, the total population of Angola will exceed at least 10 million, so that it can take on the important task of becoming a new pillar of national economic construction."

"Rational use of the sea and land advantages in the western region will focus on the development of industries such as equipment manufacturing and electric power industry, especially the promotion of urbanization, converting the agricultural population in eastern East Africa into urban population here, and promoting the progress of urbanization in East Africa."

There is no doubt that the focus of the East African government has completely shifted to the stage of industrialization, so East Africa does not pay much attention to improving agriculture in the west.

Because during this period, even the more developed central and eastern regions of East Africa were actively carrying out depopulation of agriculture.

Therefore, the construction in Angola is completely different from the past immigration and development process in East Africa. In the past, East Africa started with agriculture and then industry, but now East Africa's agricultural production activities are approaching their peak.

Of course, depopulation of agriculture does not mean not developing agriculture, but rather no longer developing labor-intensive agriculture, but promoting mechanized agriculture, thereby reducing the demand for agricultural population.

Although agricultural construction has a positive significance for the population growth of East Africa, East Africa cannot bear the trend of continued high-speed population growth. Today, the population of East Africa has exceeded 80 million (excluding black people), second only to Russia in the world, and is still in a difficult situation. in the high growth stage.

If the industrial structure of East Africa is not adjusted in a timely manner and industry is vigorously developed, East Africa is likely to fall into a vicious cycle in which economic growth is held back by population growth.

In fact, the East African government has felt the pressure and has significantly increased social expenditures such as medical care and education. However, agricultural production activities cannot support these expenditures because agricultural profits are far less than those of industry. Even if the agricultural sales in East Africa are unimpeded, the income will only be will continue to fall.

On the one hand, the development of their own countries or their colonies by countries around the world has led to continued growth in the output and categories of food, dairy products, and cash crops, further intensifying competition in world agriculture.

A typical example is the sharp increase in Argentina's dairy and livestock products, which is bound to have an impact on the dairy and livestock markets in other countries and regions. Argentina has a vast territory and sparse population, favorable climate conditions, and low shipping costs. Its exported dairy and livestock products are of high quality and low price. At least the livestock industry in East Africa is difficult to compete with Argentina overseas.

The advantage of East African agriculture lies in tropical cash crops. In this field, East Africa undoubtedly ranks first in comprehensive strength in the world. However, Brazil, India, Southeast Asia, and the Caribbean are also developing, and the technical threshold is not high, so they are also facing greater challenges. Competitive pressure.

If the population of East Africa is only 20 to 30 million, or 40 to 50 million, and remains stable at this value, then agricultural profits are still very promising, but the population of East Africa is second only to European, American and Asian countries in the world, and the population is growing rapidly. , and with agricultural profits continuing to decline, industrial development is currently the only way out for East Africa.

This is easy to understand. Among countries with similar area and large population, the only objects that East Africa can refer to are the United States and Tsarist Russia. Although the population data of countries such as Britain, France, and Germany are not bad, their area is too small to be of reference significance.

There is no doubt that Tsarist Russia is a country with more agriculture than industry, while the United States is already a relatively developed industrial country. The future situation of the two countries in the previous life is also very clear, that is, the domestic crisis in Tsarist Russia will become increasingly serious, and the regime will eventually change, while the United States will take over world hegemony.

Although the Soviet Union later emerged and led the former Russian region to become the first level of world hegemony, the gap between the Soviet Union and the United States had widened by that time. The gap between the two countries was at least forty or fifty years. Even under the Soviet model The Soviet Union's economy grew rapidly, but it was difficult to close the gap.

The most representative data is the urbanization rate of the two countries. By the 1980s, the urbanization rate of the Soviet Union barely reached 60%, while other developed countries generally reached more than 70%.

Therefore, it is very important for East Africa to seize the economic development window in the early 20th century, including taking advantage of opportunities such as economic crises and wars.

During the World War in the previous life, the original production activities of European countries were completely turned to the military industry, and they were thrown into the bottomless pit of war. You must know that before the war, Europe was the most developed industrial region in the world, and the production activities of European civilian industries stagnated due to the war, and the world market share given up was also the largest.

In the previous life, the world's largest market given up due to the war was almost eaten up by the United States alone, and the improvement of American industry and society is inestimable.

The World War is undoubtedly also a huge opportunity for East Africa, but if you want to seize this opportunity, East Africa must first build its own industrial foundation. In this case, it can make a fortune from the war.

Therefore, in the first decade of the 20th century, Ernst went all out for the industrial construction of East Africa. Only countries with developed industries and outside the European region can enjoy the dividends of the war economy more comfortably.

This is to mention the Far Eastern Empire. In the previous life, the Far Eastern Empire's economy actually enjoyed the dividends of the First World War. During this period, national capitalism achieved leapfrog growth, or a chance to breathe, but because of its weak industrial foundation, the war dividends it received were not even as good as those of Japan.

After all, Europe's demand for all kinds of materials due to the war was almost unlimited, and only industrial countries outside Europe could get the bulk of the war dividends.

In the previous life, there were only two developed industrial countries outside Europe, the United States and Japan. In this time and space, because of the sudden rise of East Africa, there should be three. The industrial level of East Africa may be different from that of European and American countries, but its strength is far above that of Japan. And because of its geographical location, East Africa is easier to eat both ends than the United States. The trade between the United States and Europe is completely dependent on the Atlantic Ocean, which is bound to be restricted by Britain, while East Africa can transport resources to the two major camps through the Atlantic and Indian Oceans.