Chapter 1013: Standing on the Side

"Your Highness, now is the time to express our country's attitude. Based on the various intelligence we have compiled, it can be basically concluded that Tsarist Russia and Japan will eventually have a war, and both sides are making preparations for this war," Felix said.

"Russia has internally revealed its thoughts on war with Japan. According to gossip, the Russian government has long concluded that war with Japan will occur between 1903 and 1905."

"So, the attitude towards war is not a sudden idea, but a major event that Russia has planned for a long time. The intelligence we collected from Europe and the Far East also pointed out that the Russian government is strengthening its military strength in the Far East recently."

"So the war news leaked from Russia is obviously not groundless. They are likely to be the first to launch an attack on Japan."

Ernst basically agreed with Felix's inference. However, the Russo-Japanese War in the previous life began with Japan's sneak attack on the Russian army. However, Felix could not have thought of Japan, a "small" country, so unreasonable. Martial ethics.

Of course, Ernst did not interrupt Felix, but allowed him to continue.

"At the same time, Japan is also actively preparing for war. Especially after signing relevant agreements with the United Kingdom, military cooperation between the two countries has become increasingly frequent. It is estimated that behind Japan there is support from the United States and the Far Eastern Empire."

It is impossible to imagine that cooperation between the United Kingdom and Japan is not frequent. After all, most of the ships in the Japanese fleet come from or imitate the United Kingdom.

It is not surprising that the Far Eastern Empire supports Japan. This is not a random speculation by East African officials, but has real evidence. Although there is no official statement, there are already many important figures in the Far Eastern Empire who have contacts with Japan. There is obviously something behind this. Government instructions.

But this is understandable. Although the two countries have had a war, Tsarist Russia now poses a far greater threat to the Far Eastern Empire than Japan.

Now Tsarist Russia's Pacific Fleet is stationed in Lushun, and many military forces have illegally entered the territory of the Far Eastern Empire. Therefore, from a bright perspective, Tsarist Russia has caused serious damage to the core interests of the Far Eastern Empire.

Of course, from the 19th century to the early 20th century, “any country would be so wary of being a neighbor to Tsarist Russia, because the paper data of Tsarist Russia were too exaggerated. From today’s perspective, just putting Russia there is quite scary.” of.

Ernst also said at this time: "The possibility of a war breaking out between Russia and Japan is now at least 90%, and it is very likely to break out within this year or next year. Now the Japanese naval expansion is nearing completion. When the Japanese government The Sixty-sixth Fleet plan is completely completed, and war is not far away. "

"According to the estimates of our intelligence personnel, the Sixty-Six Fleet Plan should be completely completed next year, and the Japanese government cannot maintain this huge army. They can only maintain the operation of their country by launching wars."

"So Japan will definitely launch a war next year at the latest, and the only opponent Japan can target is Tsarist Russia or the Far Eastern Empire. Between the two countries, Tsarist Russia has the greatest chance."

Japan has always been on the road of light military force and militarism, so it is impossible to stop. As for Russia, it is not easy to be sure.

However, as long as either of the two countries is determined, this war will be inevitable. Therefore, Ernst determined that the probability of war breaking out next year is more than 90%, and Japan must be the first to strike.

Because Russia has only now begun to borrow money from everywhere, this reflects to a certain extent Russia's hesitation in its attitude towards the Japanese war. This hesitation was also one of the important factors in Russia's failure in the previous life.

If Russia pays more attention to Japan, it may change the direction of the war. However, judging from the various information Ernst has obtained now, there is a high probability that Russia will return to the mistakes of its previous life.

Sweet asked: "Your Highness, what role should we play in this very likely war? Should we support Russia or Japan?"

Ernst said: "But who wins between Japan and Russia has little impact on us, and in my opinion, Japan has a high probability of winning the war, but even if we are on the side of the winner, we in East Africa cannot Be the first winner.”

"If Russia wins, France will undoubtedly benefit the most. If Japan wins, the people who benefit the most will be Britain and France. So there is no need for us in East Africa to take sides easily."

“For us now, that is to actively seek benefits from this war as much as possible without affecting the economic development of our country. Among Japan and Russia, our interests in Russia are the greatest, so we must try our best to benefit from this war. Russia reaps the benefits.”

Russia is one of the largest markets in East Africa and is very rich in resources. In addition, Russia's Black Sea has direct access to the east coast of East Africa, which makes Russia an important economic partner in East Africa.

Therefore, compared with Japan, Russia is more important to East Africa. Therefore, when betting between the two countries, Ernst must choose Russia, even if Russia has a high probability of losing in the war.

"Russia is one of the most important markets for my country's agricultural products and industrial products, especially high-end industrial products such as automobiles and electricity. However, in Japan, our interests are almost negligible. The Japanese economy is mainly controlled by the United Kingdom and the United States. Even if we try hard, it's impossible to squeeze in, and it's difficult for Japan to offer the bargaining chip that makes us excited."

"In the end, whether it is Russia or Japan, their expansion in the Far East may ultimately harm our interests, so if Russia and Japan can both lose, that is the best news for us."

In Ernst's view, Russia is most likely to be defeated. After all, the Russian navy is just a show. Although the Japanese navy is not as large as the Russian navy, it is not inferior to any country in the Far East.

This also further strengthened Ernst's attitude of limited support for Russia. For many countries in the world, Russia is very unpopular.

But for East Africa, it is just the opposite. At least at this stage, East Africa and Russia are highly complementary economically, which makes the relationship between the two countries relatively harmonious because of interests.

Therefore, East Africa will never offend Russia. Instead, it must support Russia. This support cannot make Russia win the war, but only make Russia fail more slowly and consume more of Japan's potential.

So Ernst said: "We can give Russia some support in areas such as funding when negotiating with the Tsarist Russian government, but Russia also needs to show sincerity to make it easier for our industrial and agricultural products to enter the Russian market. At the same time, Russia should expand the scope of trade with East Africa, especially to make the import of products such as oil smoother."

Russia's oil costs are relatively low. Now Russia's developed oil fields are mainly located on the coast of the Caspian Sea. As long as they are transported by land, they can reach East Africa through the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Red Sea, etc.

Although Romania and Austria-Hungary have more advantages in transportation costs, their production is relatively low and there are many competitors, which also makes Russia's oil resources account for an increasing proportion of East Africa's imported oil.

The development of East Africa's oil industry and internal combustion engine vehicles has made East Africa's demand for oil resources increasingly strong, all of which makes it impossible for East Africa to ignore Russia's oil resources.

And oil is just a typical resource. East Africa's demand for other Russian products is also prominent, including high-quality wheat, oats, etc. The two countries have strong agricultural complementarity. A tropical country and a cold temperate country make the two countries' advantageous crops just not conflict.

Moreover, the quality of Russian agricultural products, especially grains, taste and nutrition are better than those of other European countries, and much better than those of East Africa. Currently, except for rice, East African grains are more developed towards the direction of industrial production raw materials because the quality and taste can no longer meet the needs of the people.