Chapter 1334 The world's third most populous country (two in one)

Mbeya City.

The current round of census work in East Africa is much more difficult and workload than it was ten years ago.

Ten years ago, it was still in the era of complete planned economy. At that time, population mobility in East Africa was weak, and the direction of population movement was very clear and clear. Due to policy restrictions, traveling to other regions required various procedures.

Since the opening of the market, East Africa's population control has been greatly reduced. Under the economic market, the mobility of people has increased, and the regularity is not strong. After all, at this time, population mobility is completely driven by money. Where can you earn more? Money and population will naturally flow there.

The ways to make money are diversified and unpredictable at all, so this makes the population flow in East Africa completely chaotic.

Town of Ortwis.

This is a town under the jurisdiction of Mbeya City. In order to investigate the regional population situation, staff from the Mbeya City Statistics Bureau had to go deep into the rural grassroots.

Now Wundt and Rhine, staff members of the Mbeya Municipal Bureau of Statistics, are conducting surveys in the village of Amforst under the town of Otwis.

Both Wundt and Rhine were young people. At this time, they were talking to the village chief Dill at the village committee of Amforst village.

Wundt took a document and said to the village chief of Dill: "Mr. Dill, the document in my hand is a summary of the household registration records of the town of Ottervis. According to the archives of the town of Ottervis, The village of Amforst under its jurisdiction, which is where you live, has a total registered population of 3,208 people. After our verification, the current actual resident population of this village is 2,097 people. "

"We want to know the specific whereabouts of the 1,111 people who are not in the village. We also want to know the recent births and deaths in the village. Do you know anything about this?"

Facing two public officials coming from above, the village chief of Dier said with a smile: "The current population of our village is roughly the same as the data. Although I don't remember the specific number of villagers in our village, it is more than three thousand. Definitely."

"As for those who are not in the village, I don't know the specific whereabouts. In the past, if everyone wanted to leave the village and needed a letter of introduction or other documents, they would ask me, the village chief, to get it stamped."

"However, since 1910, the country no longer restricts the normal flow of the population. If villagers leave the village, they no longer need to go through the review process. They may go to other places because of a random idea."

"With the opening up of policies in recent years, many people have chosen to work in other places to support their families, especially during the slack season. Some people even stay away all year round, and some have already moved their household registration to other places."

With the passing of the era of completely planned economies, people in East Africa now have greater freedom of travel, and the village of Amfoorst is a typical example. Almost half of the village's population is outside, and this is obviously not all.

For example, in some families, the couple may go out to work together, and there is a high probability that they may give birth outside the home. This may cause the child to have no time to return to the village to register his household registration.

In addition, in the early days of East Africa's economic opening up, social order was relatively turbulent and social security issues were chaotic. It is possible that some people disappeared due to accidents, but their household registrations were still in Amforst Village, or other factors distorted the population data. This All require verification by the East African government.

In the following days, Wundt and Rhine, as well as the grassroots cadres of Amforst Village, began to focus on these detailed issues through inspections, visits, phone calls, etc., to confirm that Amforst Village the actual population situation.

And just from the situation in the village of Armforst, we can see the difficulty of the census work. In the village of Armforst alone, the phone calls are almost smoking in order to check the population.

Therefore, it is difficult to complete the census work solely by relying on the East African Bureau of Statistics. Other departments of the East African government have also joined in or actively cooperated with the census work.

But even so, in the end, the East African government cannot guarantee the complete accuracy of statistical data. In fact, even in the 21st century, an era of highly developed information, it is difficult to ensure complete accuracy in census work.

…

Although the census work is progressing slowly, the East African government still obtained the approximate population data of East Africa.

This is actually normal. East African citizens are bound to their household registration. Except for some who have not had time to register their population, or who have not had time to update due to unexpected events (such as disappearances and deaths) or who have illegal households, the household registration situation of most East African residents is normal. .

Therefore, the East African government only needs to conduct preliminary statistical compilation and summary of the national household registration to obtain the general population situation of the country. This is also the "preliminary verification". As for other unexpected situations, the data distortion and error caused by it will actually have an overall impact. Very little, especially for a country as populous as East Africa.

After all, East Africa was a large country with a population of over 100 million as early as ten years ago. For a family, losing one person would definitely be a big deal. But for a country with a large population like East Africa, unless it is caused by war, plague, etc. Except for large-scale population extinction, some details are less important.

Rhine city.

Director of the East African National Bureau of Statistics Langfurter and Minister of Civil Affairs Wollnitz and other departments reported the preliminary population statistics of East Africa to Ernst.

"Your Majesty, based on the preliminary collation of domestic household registration data, without considering other factors, by the end of 1918, my country's total population reached 163 million, with urban population accounting for more than 34%, or about 55.4 million, and rural population at more than 107 million."

"That is to say, my country's current population size is roughly the same as that of Tsarist Russia before the war, but considering that Russia's land area has shrunk significantly, coupled with the current Russian civil war, and the previous war between Russia and the Allies."

"Russia's population is definitely not increasing but decreasing, which means that without considering colonies, my country has officially replaced Russia and become the world's third most populous country, a step further than the last statistics."

Before World War I, Russia's population fluctuated between 160 million and 180 million. This is based on the last population statistics of Russia in the last century, as well as the birth and death rates of Russia.

The last official population census of Tsarist Russia was in the 1990s, when Russia advertised that it had a population of more than 130 million.

Moreover, Tsarist Russia was in its twilight years at that time, occupying a large amount of land in Ukraine, Poland and other places. However, after the Russian Labor Party came to power, it lost a large amount of land, and Russia's land area shrunk from more than 20 million square kilometers to nearly 20 million square kilometers.

The areas lost by Russia are all densely populated areas in Europe or along the Black Sea coast. Coupled with the brutal civil war in Russia today, Russia's population may even fall below 100 million.

And even if Russia may regain lost territory in the future, it is impossible to surpass East Africa in terms of population size. After all, according to the data of the previous life, after the end of the Russian Civil War, even if Russia took back the land of the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk because of the defeat of the Allies, the official data of the Soviet Union later showed that Russia's population still dropped sharply.

According to the initial population data, East Africa has replaced Russia and officially become the third most populous country in the world. The Far Eastern Empire and Britain ranked before East Africa.

The population of Britain can rank second in the world mainly because of India, so whether it is calculating Britain or comparing India alone, it does not affect East Africa's status as the third most populous country in the world.

This data does not include the population of East African colonies. After all, East Africa does not care about or pay attention to the specific population of colonies. The population of colonies has always been relatively rough, and the East African government will not seriously check it.

After all, the local population verification work alone has made East African government departments exhausted, and it also consumes a lot of manpower, material resources and financial resources. If the colony population is verified, it will be too difficult for East African government staff.

Generally, the population census of East African colonies is solved and reported by the colonial government itself. The East African government only needs to have a general understanding. For the East African government, the more colonial population, the better. After all, the colony is the future East African population reservoir built by Ernst to deal with the future local aging and other problems.

Therefore, as long as it can be determined that the colonial population has been increasing, Ernst's psychological expectations can be met. In fact, it is difficult for the colonial population in East Africa not to increase, which does not require a lot of support from the East African government.

After all, the fertility level of the population that can immigrate to the East African colonies will not be lower than that of the local area, even if the living standards of the colonies are far different from those of the East African mainland.

Compared with the colonies, the local population data is obviously more meaningful to Ernst, and after learning that the population of East Africa has exceeded 160 million, Ernst is indeed very happy.

Although this data is only the preliminary result of statistics based on household registration records, it is not necessarily accurate, but the final population data of East Africa should be similar to this data.

At this population scale, even if there are a few million more or less people, the impact on East Africa is already very weak.

However, it is highly likely that the final data will be higher than the preliminary result, so 160 million is just a conservative number.

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Ernst said: "Our population has exceeded 160 million, which also confirms the fact that our country has become the third most populous country in the world, and population represents productivity."

"The urban population has exceeded 50 million. I am afraid that only the United States can reach this level in the world. Even our urban population is larger than that of France or the United Kingdom."

In 1918, the population of the United States was close to 100 million, but the urbanization level of the United States was higher than that of East Africa, and it may even be close to 50%, which means that the urban population of the United States is likely to be around 50 million.

Of course, in this way, the urban population of East Africa is only about 5 million more than that of the United States, which is obviously somewhat unreasonable. After all, East Africa has replaced the United States as the world's first industrial power, and the quality of industrial development in East Africa is slightly inferior to that of the United States.

That is to say, the industrial profits of the United States are higher than those of East Africa at the same volume, not to mention that the service industry and financial industry in the United States are more developed than those in East Africa, and these industries can also support the development of cities.

Therefore, considering all factors, if the urban population in East Africa is only five million more than that of the United States, it would be unreasonable for East Africa's industrial output value to surpass that of the United States and become the world's number one. After all, the quality of industrial development in East Africa is not as good as that of the United States.

Soon, Ernst realized this problem. He told Langfurter, director of the National Bureau of Statistics: "Our country's urban population should be more than this! After all, our industrial production capacity surpassed the United States a few years ago and became the The world’s largest industrial country.”

Langfurter, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said: "We are actually very aware of His Majesty's doubts, but this is not a mistake in our work, but a normal phenomenon."

"This time we only collected preliminary data on urban household registration, so we finally came up with a value of 34% of the urban population. However, many years ago, my country's urbanization level exceeded 3%. ten."

"In recent years, East Africa's economic and industrial development has been accelerated by the impact of war, so the 34% figure seems a bit unreasonable at first glance."

"But we cannot ignore that the current urban population structure in East Africa has changed. In the era of planned economy, my country's urban household registration population basically conforms to the overall urban population data."

"But since 1910, when my country opened up a series of policies and relaxed restrictions on freedoms, the value of household registration has been greatly reduced in East Africa."

"Many people with non-urban household registrations are pouring into cities. Many of them have not become urban residents, but still retain rural household registrations, but these people are indeed living in cities."

"Therefore, the current permanent population in my country's cities is definitely much higher than the 34% ratio. According to our estimates, if the permanent population with non-urban household registration is included, the proportion of urban residents nationwide may exceed 34%. forty."

"However, the accurate data ultimately depends on the final accounting data at the end of the year, and the preliminary calculation is only suitable for a rough reference."

As Langfult explained, Ernst and other high-level officials in East Africa suddenly realized that this was the difference between the registered population and the permanent population.

Ernst was deeply touched by this in his previous life. In his previous life, the Far Eastern Empire had many residents with non-urban registered permanent residence living in cities. Take the capital of the Far Eastern Empire as an example. Its registered population is only over 10 million, and when counting the permanent population, it can Reaching more than 20 million, it will only be even more exaggerated if some floating populations are included.

Therefore, the urban population in East Africa, if calculated in terms of permanent population, is very likely to exceed 60 million or even higher.

In this case, the resident population in rural areas of East Africa may not reach the level of more than 100 million. Of course, this is a good thing for East Africa. With development to this day, unless East African society stops progressing, the rural population will inevitably decline. To be gradually reduced.

For the time being, the urbanization level in East Africa is estimated to be 40%, which is already a very good result for East Africa.

After all, the more populous a country is, the more difficult it is to industrialize. If it wants to further support the industrial development of East Africa, it can only steal food from the established imperialist powers.

The tens of millions of extra industrial people in East Africa have ruined many people's jobs. After all, the growth rate of the world market is far slower than the expansion rate of industrial production capacity. This is also the case since the mid-to-late 19th century, when the world economic crisis concentrated. Causes of violent and frequent occurrence.

Of course, this also shows that from the 19th century to the beginning of the 20th century, countries around the world were at the forefront of whether they could achieve success in one fell swoop. If they grasped this opportunity, they could quickly become industrial countries and become members of imperialist countries.

In the mid-19th century alone, there were five emerging industrial countries: Germany, Russia, the United States, East Africa, and Japan. This era was a truly diversified era. As long as the contradictions between major powers were well utilized, one could profit from it.

Under unipolar hegemony, the mobility of technology, knowledge, and talents is the worst. Just like in the 21st century, the world order was almost stagnant. Even if many countries worked hard enough, they eventually fell on the eve of victory and became the hegemon of the United States. harvested leeks.