Chapter 961 Danger and Opportunity

Of course, the United States is also aware of this problem, so now the United States has picked up the script of Britain's "free trade" and vigorously developed its naval strength.

In the original history, the United States came up with the so-called "open door policy" in September this year, demanding more opportunities for "fair competition".

East Africa has not yet developed to the stage of the United States, but with the development of East African industry, East Africa will also support the United States' proposition in a few years.

After all, the world rules are now formulated by traditional European powers such as Britain and France. Other countries are more willing to break this old world system, and East Africa is no exception.

"Continue to increase diplomatic, cultural, and political exchanges with South American countries, especially to support our agents. Now the international market is almost divided up, and wanting to eat more means that someone will give up the interests in their hands, which is obviously not easy to do, so we can only continue to work hard, open up more new tracks, avoid direct competition, or improve our industrial standards and improve the competitiveness of goods." Ernst said.

A good ironmaker must have a strong body. If the industrial level of East Africa is further improved, the industrial products of East Africa can compete with other countries. In the end, it depends on whose industrial strength is strong. After the industrial level is improved, it will naturally drive the development of other fields.

Just like the United States, its foreign policy change is also due to the rapid expansion of its industry. Industrial development has driven the improvement of the United States' strength. This is the premise for the development of the US Navy today and the guarantee for the victory of the Spanish-American War.

Today, the industry of East Africa has not yet risen in quantity, and naturally cannot be compared with other powers. However, as time goes by, the industry of East Africa will also enter a new period of outbreak.

In 1899, the previous industrial reforms in East Africa were basically completed, and a large number of new factories were built in the east, central and western regions. The north and south also realized the industry from scratch.

In the central and eastern regions, a number of emerging industries in East Africa are growing rapidly, and several industries such as electricity, machinery, petroleum, chemical industry and machinery have achieved leapfrog development.

In particular, industries such as electricity and automobiles have not only grown in scale, but also accumulated a lot of technological advantages. As time goes by, East Africa will have great competitive advantages in the market of these industries in the next 20 to 30 years.

At the same time, this also means that by 1899, the previous round of industrial investment in East Africa had been completed, and the subsequent period was the process of East Africa's industrial investment starting to recover.

This is also the main reason why East Africa actively develops new consumer markets such as South America. After all, after industrial products are produced, it is impossible for them to be digested only by the domestic market in East Africa. The international market is even more important.

In the international market, after removing the colonies and spheres of influence of various countries, there are not many regions and countries for East Africa to choose from. South America is also the only region that East Africa has not yet entered on a large scale.

So Ernst said: "In terms of exports, our main markets are now Europe, the Far East and the Middle East. Europe is the main market for East African industrial and agricultural products, while the Far East and the Middle East are advantageous markets. On this basis, South America will be the fourth largest market for East African trade in the future."

"And the most important thing for the development of new markets is to bind interests, so that we can achieve certain breakthroughs in the current environment of high tariff barriers."

According to Ernst's memory, there were several economic crises in the early 20th century in his previous life, especially the economic crisis in 1913, which directly led to the outbreak of the World War.

So throughout the early 20th century, competition in the industrial field will only become more and more fierce, but the impact on East Africa should not be great. On the one hand, East Africa's domestic market is not yet saturated. As an agricultural country, East Africa's domestic market demand is relatively strong.

Like tractors, power equipment, automobiles, etc., East Africa's self-production and sales are currently greater than exports, and these industries rely on emerging industries, which are much more capable of coping with economic crises than traditional industries.

In the previous round of industrial investment in East Africa, an industrial upgrade has been completed, and most of the backward production capacity has been eliminated. In the context of other countries' vigorous military expansion, East Africa has invested more funds in technology and equipment updates, scientific research, education and other fields, which has taken advantage of itself.

Of course, this does not mean that the path chosen by other countries is wrong. If more colonies and markets can be occupied by military expansion, economic risks can naturally be dealt with.

But Ernst is not optimistic about this path. At least for the current stage, military expansion is more harmful than beneficial to national development.

At present, the strength of various powerful countries is relatively balanced, which makes it difficult for countries to make up their minds to go to war. If they do not fight, they will naturally not be able to redistribute the cake. Of course, the Spanish-American War should be an exception, but the Cuba and Philippines acquired by the United States are not large in size, which is just a drop in the bucket for the United States.

This is the same as East Africa's purchase of Mindanao. Mindanao has a small population and cannot be effectively developed. East Africa cannot obtain benefits from Mindanao for the time being.

Moreover, the equipment technology is in a period of rapid iteration, especially the navy. The expansion of the US Navy is actually to buy early and enjoy early, while Ernst's naval development route is to buy late and enjoy discounts. Before the appearance of the dreadnought, the East African Navy did not plan to expand the number of warships on a large scale in the past four or five years.

In Ernst's view, in the next few years, until 1905, the focus of the development of East African countries is to vigorously develop the economy, especially to enhance the industrial strength of East Africa. After 1905, it will not be too late to consider changes in the international situation and formulate a development strategy for East Africa.

Of course, the frequent economic crises in the early 20th century are indeed worthy of Ernst's vigilance. Although history has changed a lot, the general trend of world economic development should remain unchanged. It is necessary to prevent the economic crises of other countries from being transmitted to East Africa and disrupting the layout of East Africa.

Of course, this worry is somewhat redundant. Other countries may only have high tariff barriers, and most of East Africa is still in a closed state except for coastal cities.

With this firewall, even if the economic crisis really affects East Africa, it will only have an impact on the economy of coastal areas.

Moreover, the economic crisis is not a bad thing for East Africa at present. The crisis also represents opportunities, which is more conducive to East Africa's acquisition of advanced technology and equipment from other countries.

Although East Africa itself has many industrial highlights, it is limited to emerging industries. The gap with other countries in traditional industries is still difficult to close, and the economic crisis is East Africa's opportunity.

Of course, the introduction of technology and equipment in East Africa today is very different from the 1970s. In the economic crisis of the 1970s, East Africa mainly solved the problem of starting from scratch, while the most important thing for East Africa in the new century is to make up for the shortcomings of East Africa's industry and check for deficiencies in East Africa's industrial system. There is a big difference between the two.

However, this also made Ernst quite regretful, that is, in the early 20th century, East Africa could not play the role of the former Soviet Union. Although the economic system of East Africa had some similar characteristics to that of the Soviet Union, East Africa had already invested funds in industrial development in advance.

However, this was not a bad thing. The Soviet Union did achieve rapid industrialization during the economic crisis in the 1930s and enjoyed the dividends of the economic crisis in Europe and the United States. Although it was also a shock to the Soviet Union's own industry and scientific research, it could be avoided if the degree was well controlled.

In comparison, East Africa took a completely different route. After all, Ernst had always pursued steady progress. In Ernst's view, it might not be a good thing to expand East Africa's industry rapidly in a short period of time. Otherwise, the excavation of gold mines in Hechingen Province could solve the capital demand for East Africa's industrial development.