Chapter 2312: Another Conspiracy
"I never thought that Croatia joined the Eurozone by cheating!"
He Chaoling couldn't help but complain: "And why is there a shadow of the foundation in this?"
Chen Mo smiled faintly and said, "Where there is huge profit, there will be a foundation. The nickname of the cancer of the world is not for nothing."
Then Chen Mo continued to tell the story of Ke Guo’s “suicidal journey”.
After joining the euro zone, Croatia obtained a financing cost of 3% and began to borrow frantically.
The debt-to-GDP ratio exceeded 100% and never came down.
From 2001 to before its bankruptcy in 2009, 70% of Croatia's economy was driven by debt, 52% of its GDP came from the service industry, of which 20% was tourism, and industrial output accounted for only 14% of GDP.
Croatia's economic structure is a very typical export-oriented economy.
Once there is a major change in the external environment, Croatia's economy will collapse.
But Croatian officials do not realize how fragile their economy is.
Like Greece, Croatia has become extravagant in spending on social welfare.
One of the focuses of debt expansion is actually social welfare.
The better a country's social welfare is, the more serious its national debt problem will be.
Like Greece, Croatia has comprehensive tuition fees from primary school to university, free medical care, all companies have to pay 16 months' salary each year, and there are at least 100 days of paid vacation a year. The official department's staff are given out free of charge.
Croatia's top leaders even went to Greece for in-depth study.
The result of deep learning is that we have learned all the bad habits of the Greeks, and they are even more serious!
The Croatian people are completely immersed in the enjoyment of issuing bonds.
But Ke Guo didn't know that Gaosheng had already started shorting it in secret.
The hedging agreement that Will Bank made with Gaosheng dragged down the largest bank of Australia, the most powerful economy in Australia, several years later.
Gao Sheng is very insidious.
If this bomb in the Kingdom of Ke explodes and it is Ouzhou that collapses, Gaosheng can earn huge compensation and profits, and can also accept customers who escape from Ouzhou. By the way, its boss, the Foundation, can also go out to reap the benefits.
It can be said that it kills three birds with one stone.
The situation in Country K was far more serious than Gao Sheng had imagined.
The guarantor of Croatia's national debt is the European Central Bank, and the largest holder is the French Empire, the second largest economy in the European Union.
If Croatia's national debt really collapses, the entire Ou League may be buried with it!
In fact, in Chen Mo’s memory of his previous life, one year later, the Kingdom of Ke really went bankrupt, and Ouzhou was almost destroyed because of its bankruptcy.
however……
Is this something that the Kingdom of Croatia should be concerned about?
In the previous life, from 1996 to 2009, the Croatian government had been living by issuing bonds.
The ideas of the top officials are surprisingly consistent.
How to reduce the fraudulent debt is a matter for the next term!
This time, they only need to maintain superficial prosperity and then get votes.
However, the bubble that is blown bigger and bigger will eventually burst.
Chen Mo's recent move caused the subprime mortgage crisis to arrive half a year earlier, and also dealt a devastating blow to Croatia's tourism and shipping industries.
The number of tourists from Baguo and Oumeng decreased by 19.3% and 25% respectively, and tourism revenue plummeted by 30.2%.
The sharp drop in tax revenue caused by the economic downturn means a sharp drop in fiscal revenue.
In order to maintain the welfare system and daily expenditures, Croatia's debt issuance has skyrocketed.
Fiscal revenue plummeted and fiscal expenditure skyrocketed.
The difference between the two is a huge increase in the fiscal deficit.
If there are no strong means to save the situation, bankruptcy is the only outcome!
After sorting out the situation, Chen Mo smiled and asked, "Secretary He, what do you think would happen if I exposed the fact that Croatia joined the Eurozone by fraud and then lived on crazy debt?"
He Chaoling's eyes lit up: "The credibility of Croatia will collapse even faster than that of Greece!"
Chen Mo looked like a teachable boy: "Bin Gou! You got it right! Greece at least joined the Eurozone by relying on its own hard power, but Croatia is different!
I don’t even need to use a large amount of money to short sell, Croatia will go bankrupt!!!”
He Chaoling asked: "Then... the foundation will not take action? If the Kingdom of Ke is bankrupted by you again, the helper of the public opinion of the Ou League will probably no longer exist.
Moreover, the economy of the Ou League and the Hegemony is integrated. If you continue to short sell endlessly, the anger of the Ou League will backfire on the Hegemony. "
Chen Mo smiled: "Gao Sheng himself has bought a large amount of products to short the country, will the foundation be willing to lose money to help?
I don’t think these capitalists are going to do good things.”
"But it doesn't matter even if they did it. If the Foundation helps, I will expose the fact that Gaosheng United Will Bank shorted the country.
By then, the fragile alliance between the Foundation and the Guilin Alliance will collapse.
It would be even better if the Foundation did not intervene. Who would be willing to be its ally if it watched the country go bankrupt while the instigator hid behind the scenes and did nothing? "
He Chaoling heard this and exclaimed, "Another conspiracy! If the foundation intervenes, you win. If the foundation doesn't intervene, you still win. I'm convinced!"
