1050 Real Probability And Fake Probability

After coming up with this idea, Qiao Liang was first shocked by himself. He felt that he might have been overthinking. However, the more he analyzed it, the more he felt that it was possible.

There must be a deeper meaning behind Boss Pei's actions!

For a game like the Fitness Battle, the specifics of how the lucky draw system was done did not affect the game's profitability.

Players would still draw even if it was a regular lucky draw.

Since Boss Pei had so aggressively made the lucky draw system into its current state, he must have had some intentions.

Such intentions could not be seen at the moment, but Boss Pei might have predicted the reactions of the players.

Thus, he had to start from the players' reactions to truly analyze Boss Pei's intentions.

Qiao Liang immediately searched for a post on the internet regarding the lucky draw of the Fitness Battle and analyzed the different users.

He quickly found many cases.

That was because the gamers of 'Fitness Battle' seemed to have a much higher desire to do solo work than other games.

Whether it was those who were extremely lucky or those who were extremely unlucky, they were all very passionate about showing the results of the lucky draw online.

According to the analysis of traditional games with paywalls, players who knew how to spend money were generally divided into small paywalls, medium paywalls, and high paywalls. The boundaries were more vague and could be mutually modified. However, the overall boundaries were based on how much money they could spend.

However, this method of differentiation did not seem to work in the Fitness Battle.

For example, if someone charged a 100,000 yuan, left his favorite orders and refunded everything else, and only spent a little more than a 1,000 yuan in the end, would that be considered medium or high?

Such a situation was rare but it definitely existed.

Qiao Liang read many cases online and realized that there were all sorts of strange things.

For example, someone had drawn five ten consecutive draws, but the results were all blue skies and white clouds. There was only one purple item, and it was not what he wanted.

Thus, the man did not know whether to laugh or cry as he refunded everything.

If this was any other game, he might have asked the customer service for an explanation. However, since he could refund the game freely, he would come back three days later.

There were also people who drew three consecutive 10 draws. All of them were bursting with orange. At first, he had planned to choose the one with the best results to keep. The other two 10 draws would all be refunded. Now, he no longer wanted a refund and was showing off excitedly online.

There was another oddity. He had really only drawn 50 odd 10 consecutive draws. He had kept a 10 consecutive draw that had exploded by two oranges. He had refunded all the other draws. He had even proudly posted that he was the 'King of Good Deals' and suggested that everyone learn from him and make Tengda bald.

Some people even treated the lucky draw system as a test site. In any case, they could refund all of the prizes. Refunding the prizes would be equivalent to not spending any money. They could enjoy the lucky draw.

Such strange situations were never seen in other games' lucky draw systems.

Even if other gamers were to show off, there would only be two outcomes: 'Super lucky' and 'Unlucky'. Of course, the 'Super lucky' ones might be very lucky, but the 'Unlucky' ones might not be too bad either.

"Tengda's lucky draw mechanism… seems to be real?"

Qiao Liang suddenly had an idea. He listed out the difference between the traditional lucky draw model and the lucky draw model of Fitness Battle.

The 'real probability' was relative to the 'fake probability'.

It would be a huge mistake to think that the traditional lucky draw model was purely based on probability.

Qiao Liang had also consciously filled in the knowledge of game design. He knew very well that the lucky draw in the game was never a real probability but a fake probability.

Of course, the fake probability was not only for the merchants to earn money, but also to ensure the players' feelings.

This could only be understood with a relatively basic knowledge of probability.

For example, it was already very high for merchants to set a certain product to have a drop rate of 20%.

In that case, if there were enough players and the sample size was big enough, the number of players who took out this product for the first time would be about 20%. That was very understandable.

However, the probability of not even drawing five times was five 80% multiplicative, which was 0.32768. This meant that about 30% of players would not even draw five times.

On the other hand, the probability of not drawing ten times was about 80% multiplication, which was about 0.1, which was 10%.

A prop with a 20% drop rate. According to probability, 10% of players would not even draw ten times.

On the other hand, if he were to add it, the probability that he would not even draw twenty times was 1%.

If 100,000 people participated in the lucky draw, 1% would be 1,000 people.

Would they be able to accept that a thousand people would not be able to produce a drop rate of 20% even if they tried twenty times?

This obviously did not match their instincts: wouldn't something with a 20% drop rate come out after five tries?

However, probability differed from person to person. A 20% drop rate did not necessarily mean that it would be produced every five times. It could not even be guaranteed that it would be produced every ten times.

Probability could not be precise to an individual. Only when the data sample was large enough would the real probability be infinitely close to the theoretical data.

In other words, anything could happen if he drew once. However, if he drew a hundred million times, the chances of it happening would be infinitely close to twenty million.

However, those who did not know the basics of probability would not know this.

One could only imagine how much pressure it would generate if these 1,000 people failed to produce anything with a 20% drop rate.

What's more, most of them were players with high paywalls or high paywalls. If they obtained such a lucky draw experience, would they still participate in activities in the future? They would be considered good-tempered if they did not directly unload the game.

Therefore, many game manufacturers would set false probabilities in the game to prevent such situations from happening.

In other words, if a player did not get a 20% drop rate item the first time, the drop rate for the second time would be slightly higher. If it did not drop by the fifth time, 100% would be given.

That way, no matter how bad the players' luck was, there would always be a guarantee.

From this point of view, the fake probability did have the effect of protecting players.

However, the problem was that since the game developers had already made fake probabilities, they could not only protect the players' interests. They naturally had to protect their own interests.

For example, even if the drop rate was 0.1% for a very precious prop that was worth tens of thousands of yuan, if 100,000 players participated in the lucky draw, 100 lucky people would be so lucky that they would get it on their first try and 90 lucky people would get it on their second try…

It would not matter if it was a precious item that did not have a limit.

However, what if the official platform wanted to limit the number of copies to 500 or 1,000 just so that this prop could be retained?

According to this method, the people who really got the props were not the ones who charged the most, but the real Godd*mn lucky winners.

Perhaps ballers would not pay even if they charged a few thousand yuan, but someone would.

The ballers would feel unbalanced if they were selected by the Godd*mn lucky winners. That was because even if they were selected, they would definitely spend much more than the Godd*mn lucky winners.

Luck and money were not balanced.

Therefore, the game developers would often set a prerequisite. They would only be able to draw this item after accumulating the amount of money spent on XX. The more money they charged, the higher the chances of drawing it.

This was in line with most players' expectations: I only drew once, it was normal that it did not happen; it was reasonable for ballers to draw dozens of times.

However, in reality, this was all arranged by the game developers through fake probability.

In this way, the game developers would ensure that the ballers had a good sense of spending. That way, they would be able to keep their own profits and reputation.

They were sacrificing the interests of a small group of pure Godd*mn lucky winners. However, that did not matter because they did not know that they were pure Godd*mn lucky winners. They did not know that they could take out this precious item in one shot. They thought that it was normal that they did not get it.

What's more, gamers could not verify the authenticity of the data. That was because the detailed rules of the lucky draw and the data after the lucky draw were all in the hands of the game company. Gamers had no means of contacting them.

On the other hand, Boss Pei's lucky draw model was obviously a real probability. In other words, 20% meant 20%. It did not matter if a thousand people could not even draw 20 times. All they had to do was to refund all of them.

After comparing the two different lucky draw models, Qiao Liang suddenly had an idea.

"Could it be that Boss Pei wants to use this new lucky draw model to deconstruct the traditional lucky draw model? To let some players realize that the lucky draw they think is only done under the framework drawn by the game company?"

"Tengda's lucky draw is actually taking the initiative to break this framework and give gamers an absolute fair but slightly uncomfortable probability?"

"That… that's an almost impossible task!"

Qiao Liang could not help but respect Boss Pei.

Fake probability had long appeared with the lucky draw system. Some websites and APPs had even done it before many games produced the lucky draw function.

However, after so many years, very few people questioned this.

On the other hand, more and more players began to get used to it and became passionate about the lucky draw. More and more merchants developed the lucky draw that could take care of the players' feelings on the surface but was actually more convenient for them to earn money.

On the other hand, the lucky draw system was like a stable money tree to the game developers. Thus, whether it was client-side games, mobile games, or even random events, many merchants would conduct lucky draws frequently.

If someone made a profit, someone would naturally make a loss.

They would definitely not lose out if the games company liked to do lucky draws so much.

Wouldn't it be obvious who would lose out?

Boss Pei's lucky draw system was obviously going to expose this veil and tell the players the cruel truth to change this situation!

Of course, the current situation was not optimistic.

That was because most gamers did not have the relevant knowledge about game design. What's more, humans love to try their luck and take advantage of others.

Many people liked to play lucky draws. Even if you told him seriously about probability, expectations, and lucky draw, he would not listen at all. He would definitely think that he was lucky. He might even be cheated, spend a huge sum of money to take out a pile of rubbish, and still insist that he was just unlucky this time. He would definitely be able to get what he wanted next time.

Ordinary merchants would obviously try their best to tell consumers that the lucky draw was a kind of preferential activity. Players and merchants were mutually beneficial. It was very worth it to conduct a lucky draw.

At most, he would use a very small line of words to hint at the lucky draw: There are risks in the lucky draw. You have to be cautious when charging.

However, this hint would definitely be very small and most people would not take it to heart.

After this analysis, Qiao Liang came to a rather shocking conclusion.

"Isn't Boss Pei cutting off all avenues of profit for the lucky draw?"

"It might not necessarily succeed but Boss Pei is indeed working hard to contrast the other lucky draw through the lucky draw of Fitness Battle, so that everyone can see the so-called lucky draw more clearly."

"Even if not many people would appreciate it in the end, even if it would attract the crazy attacks of other companies who were hoping to earn money from the lucky draw, they would not care."

"How thoughtful!"

Qiao Liang could not help but feel emotional. Only Boss Pei would dare to do something like that!

However, most people were too slow to understand Boss Pei's intentions.

He had to come up with a video to explain the key points. He could not let Boss Pei's efforts go to waste!

The lucky draw activities of Finger Games and Long Yu Corporation seemed very conscientious, but that only appeared conscientious compared to the other blackhearted lucky draw prizes.

In fact, they were still thinking of ways to earn money from players even if they had a 70% discount!

What conscience was there to speak of compared to Tengda's actions?