Vol 6 Chapter 278: Intersection

The reason why this question is difficult to answer is not because Feng Yiping doesn't know how to answer this question, but how to answer it, which makes Lazier satisfied.

Regardless of the issue of position, from the facts, Feng Yiping knows that there are many reasons for the huge trade deficit in Sino-US trade. The exchange rate is one aspect, but the exchange rate is definitely not the main reason.

However, he is not sure whether his answer like this will cause a dispute between himself and Lazier.

Because, judging from the performance of the Bush administration, whether they understand the reasons for this or not, they have always categorically equated the trade deficit between the two countries with my country’s exchange rate.

Therefore, this actually shows that they understand that the exchange rate is not the main cause, but they must take the exchange rate issue as the main cause.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers has two main responsibilities: assessing various economic policies of the government and preparing the president's annual economic report.

As the head of this committee, the White House made such a strong statement, presumably Lazier personally, will certainly agree.

Of course, expressing agreement does not mean that he really agrees, but in any case, he must agree with the president on such an issue, otherwise, he will be unstable in his seat.

And even if he didn't agree with him in his heart, it is also certain that he would never show such an attitude in front of Feng Yiping.

Therefore, Lazier should be unhappy to say that it is not because of the exchange rate, but Feng Yiping is really unable to do this.

But considering Lazier’s position in Bush’s economic team and the attacks he might encounter next, obviously, if his answer does not match the attitude Lazier must show, then he does not rule out the opposite. This old version of Professor X will hand over a small comment at a critical time.

That would be an irritating situation.

"Professor, let's put aside all other factors and discuss this as an academic issue, how about?" Feng Yiping said.

Lazier glanced at Feng Yiping, smiled, showing a few teeth, "Okay!"

Basically, both of them are smart people. Basically, Feng Yiping's beginning has explained his views on this matter.

However, when he said this, he expressed his attitude and would not cause the two of them to have a direct confrontation.

Lazier nodded silently in his heart, as expected of Feng Yiping.

Feng Yiping raised his glass, "Cheers!"

Lazier also raised his glass, "Cheers!"

That's good, then there will be controversy, which will only be a difference in academic views.

"Because of my career, I have actually been paying attention to this aspect of the problem," Feng Yiping said. "We can clearly see that from 2005 to now, the renminbi has appreciated against the U.S. dollar by approximately 20%, but from the latest According to the data, China’s exports to the United States will at least maintain an average annual growth rate of about 18.2%."

"The so-called fact is better than eloquence, right?"

Lazier nodded. He knew Feng Yiping hadn't finished explaining his views, so he didn't rush to interrupt.

"But this is only one aspect,"

"Judging from the current trend, I think both you and me can conclude that from next year, China's exports to the United States will definitely decline."

Lazier nodded again, it was inevitable.

By next year, because of the limitation of the ability to pay, the American people's willingness to consume will definitely drop significantly, that is, the demand will decrease. Then, China's exports to the United States will naturally decrease.

"I can also make a bold prediction about our country's monetary policy next year, and even the next two years."

"First of all, the renminbi cannot depreciate,"

Lazier smiled and nodded again.

The economic situation of the entire world next year will definitely be more difficult. Under such circumstances, if the RMB depreciates, it will definitely trigger a sharp rebound in Europe and the United States.

At the same time, that will also affect China's international reputation.

Unlike rogue countries like the United States, China has always been a particular country internationally.

"Secondly, it is impossible for the renminbi to appreciate," Feng Yiping continued.

Lazier thought for a while and continued to nod.

Not only the United States, but also Europe’s demand next year will also decline. Then, China’s total exports will definitely decline.

Under such a premise, no matter how the United States and Europe pressure, the people will definitely not appreciate.

"Let's look at the U.S. monetary policy for the next two years," Feng Yiping started talking about the United States after talking about China.

"First of all, it is impossible for the dollar to appreciate,"

This is of course certain.

There is a high probability that the subprime mortgage crisis will break out next year. If the United States can take positive and decisive measures to contain it before it continues to expand, the losses it will cause to the U.S. economy must certainly not be underestimated.

Under such circumstances, how could the United States be so stubborn to let the dollar appreciate and weaken the competitiveness of its products in the international market?

"Considering that this crisis originated on Wall Street, considering that this crisis has already caused and will also bring losses to all countries in the world, and considering some possible operations and the international pressures they face,"

"I don't think the dollar will depreciate next,"

The crisis caused by you has caused us huge losses. Under such circumstances, do you want to depreciate the dollar? Where is such a good thing?

Feng Yiping believes that no matter how hooligans the United States is, it is impossible to do such a thing.

Because that is equivalent to a person driving a luxury car on the road, because he was too unscrupulous, so he suddenly hit a large area of ​​pedestrians walking normally on the sidewalk, and there were many injured.

When everyone saw him and his license plate clearly, he also chose to drive away.

That can only be a choice made by an idiot.

Driving a luxury car is equivalent to the United States, and the innocent pedestrians hit by a luxury car are other major economies in the world.

Under the full view of the public, the United States' attempt to play rogues, the initiator, will inevitably lead to a collective counterattack from everyone who cannot bear it, including their allies.

You can't bully like that, can you?

"To sum up, that is, in the past few years, when the renminbi has appreciated, China's exports to the United States will still maintain high growth,"

"Next, but when the exchange rates of the two countries remain relatively stable, China's exports to the United States will decline instead,"

"So it is clear that the most influential issue for China's trade deficit will never be the RMB exchange rate."

"To solve the related trade deficit, I think the United States needs to find out more from its own reasons. The simple point is not to impose restrictions or restrict sales to China on some products that are in high demand in China," Feng Yiping Draw my own conclusion.

"Your analysis makes sense," Lazier said.

He did not argue about Feng Yiping's misjudgment on the future development of the situation.

Because although some things have not happened yet, he believes that the future will definitely develop in accordance with Feng Yiping's analysis.

"It's just that, have you ever considered a problem. The reason why the RMB has appreciated but the trade deficit with the US is still growing is precisely because the people are seriously undervalued. Therefore, only a 20% appreciation does not solve the problem?" Lacy Er said.

Feng Yiping's analysis has clear arguments and reasonable logic. He really can't find any refutation at all.

They can only continue to play along their usual caliber. The renminbi is seriously undervalued.

"Does the renminbi appreciate by 50%? I think no country will accept such conditions since the Plaza Accord in 1985."

How can it be possible for China, which has relied heavily on exports these years, to accept such conditions?

Lazier smiled, a little embarrassed.

Indeed, if China is to accept such conditions, unless it is to start a war.

But there is no such option.

More than 50 years ago, they had already been defeated by the Chinese, but China now is not the same as it was then.

Seeing the old gentleman somewhat embarrassed, Feng Yiping said with a smile, "In fact, there are some problems, it doesn't matter whether they are right or wrong,"

"For example, in the U.S., darker skin is popular here, which is the so-called wheat-colored skin, because only those who have money and leisure to sunbathe on the beach ~www.wuxiaspot.com~ will have that skin tone,"

"But in our country, we pursue a whiter complexion, because generally speaking, only successful people do not have to work in the sun to have very white skin."

"One popular black, one popular white, simply looking at the result can be said to be a natural opposition, but analyzing the connotation, it is actually a high degree of unity."

"Hehe, you are right," Lazier laughed.

Feng Yiping’s analogy is indeed more appropriate, "Cheers for this high degree of unity,"

They finally finished the main course, and they were very tacitly aware that no one asked that question again, because they all knew that such a discussion was just like discussing whether Saddam had weapons of mass destruction at the time, and it was completely meaningless.

There is no reason why some problems are problems. It is just that some people, or some interest groups, hope that they are problems.

"Feng, you may not know, I also have another part-time job at the same time,"

"Oh, I would like to hear the details,"

"I am also a member of Governor Schwarzenegger's Council of Economic Advisors," Lazier said with a smile.

Feng Yiping couldn't help but stunned, "I really don't know this,"

Therefore, each industry is actually a circle, which seems to be very large, but it is not.

"It's just that the relevant aspects of California don't support us too much,"

In order to prevent him from saying something for Schwarzenegger, Feng Yiping said this sentence first.

"This situation, I think it may change soon," Lazier said. "You may not know how active Governor Schwarzenegger and California are currently in action."

"Really?" Feng Yiping asked.

As for this, it's not really surprising.