Vol 6 Chapter 692: Public hope

Feng Yiping and the others were not the only ones who learned that Qimonda was going to be cold, so they were not the only ones who felt happy at this time.

Objectively speaking, after knowing this news, some people were happy, that was several times that of Feng Yiping and the others.

Looking forward to the stars and the moon, I finally hoped that one of my colleagues would fall down. On such a good day, which coincides with the traditional Chinese festival Spring Festival, this kind of good news has attracted many people from Korea, Japan, and across the Strait. The impulse to put off the fireworks and firecrackers.

In fact, the entire industry has waited for such good news for too long, too long!

The memory industry is an important part of the semiconductor market, and this is an industry with a certain large demand.

Like all semiconductor-related products, it originally originated in the United States, but like other manufacturing industries in the United States, it was later transferred to Japan and South Korea.

Generally speaking, there are currently four major forces in the memory chip field.

South Korea's two major chaebol groups, Samsung Electronics and Hyundai's Samsung Electronics and Hynix, are provided by South Korea; in order to compete, Japan integrated the storage businesses of Hitachi, nec, and Mitsubishi Electric in 1999 to form Elpida; Germany; Qimonda, a subsidiary of Infineon.

These are the three most influential giants in the industry. They account for more than 70% of the market. The two in South Korea account for more than 20%, and Qimonda and Elpida both exceed 10%.

At the moment, Micron, a few foundries across the Taiwan Strait, and many other small companies without names, which are still quite ordinary at the moment, are the fourth party, sharing the remaining less than 30% of the share.

Although there is a huge market demand, these memory manufacturers, like our domestic pig farms, often suffer losses. The main reason is not because of the decline in demand, but because there are too many pigs for slaughter and the market is oversupply. And caused.

The core element of the competition in the memory industry lies in the manufacturing process and the scale effect, which makes it different from the vertical division of labor of other products in the semiconductor industry. The memory industry basically adopts the idm model, that is, it has its own wafer manufacturing plant and packaging and testing. Factory, to achieve the advantages of internal integration of resources, has a higher profit margin.

The reason why South Korea is currently the leader in this area is mainly because they have once again adopted the trick of successful countercyclical investment in other industries in this field.

The so-called counter-cyclical investment is when it is determined that an industry will have huge demand, in order to get rid of opponents and finally establish their leading position in the industry, they are in a trough in the industry, and it is logical that when everyone wants to reduce the scale of production, they tend to contrarian On the contrary, the new production line has been launched, and the production scale has been greatly expanded.

This approach is a bit of a rogue, that is, we are not better than making money, we are better than losing money, to see who can sustain it in the end.

If you can't stand the bankruptcy, the market belongs to me.

But this method is indeed effective.

At the beginning, Samsung relied on this trick to leave behind the Japanese companies that originally occupied the leading position in this industry.

Soon after Samsung launched its own memory in September 1984, the market price dropped rapidly. At the beginning of the year, one piece could sell for $4, and in 1985 it could only sell for 30 cents. At this time, Samsung’s production cost was $1.3 per piece. Just sell a piece and lose one dollar.

By the end of 1986, Samsung Semiconductor had a cumulative loss of US$300 million, and its equity capital was completely in deficit.

But they insisted that there was strong support from the Korean government behind them. Not only did they still open up sales, they also increased their investment in product research and development.

Later, due to the market downturn, Intel withdrew from the memory market and focused on producing more profitable CPUs. At that time, they were fighting each other, and they were not integrated into Elpida's several Japanese companies, and they also reduced their investment scale and production capacity.

Soon after that, the market turned around...Samsung finally became the industry leader as hoped.

The main reason for the current downturn in the storage market is the same.

In 2007, the growth rate of market demand has been slowing down. In 2007, it was 7% lower than the previous year, and in 2008 it was 19.8% lower than that in 2007.

However, under such circumstances, the two South Korean companies still ignored the declining demand and still invested a lot of money to expand production capacity. As a result, the industry was naturally hit by oversupply and falling prices, so that the market conditions worsened. .

At this time, the big basket smashed by the dying Wall Street broke out completely, and the decline in consumption in Europe and the United States made the memory market, which was already making money at a loss, even worse.

In September last year when Wall Street’s troubles broke out, the price of memory officially fell below the cash cost of 1.3-1.5 US dollars. After that, some manufacturers in the Gulf Bay that could not hold it began to reduce production, although it led to the addition of Elpida and even Hynix. , But it can't stop the price like a wild horse all the way down.

By the fourth quarter of last year, the price was only 0.6-0.7 US dollars, which is actually lower than the material costs of various manufacturers.

From then to the present situation, from the industry leader below Samsung, the entire industry is losing money more than anyone else, or in other words, waiting for who can not persist first.

Because once a company collapses, the market it occupies will be vacated, which is equivalent to a further reduction in production in the entire industry, which means that there is hope for market prices to rebound.

Everyone is guessing that the South Korean two that started to lose money in the fourth quarter of last year will definitely be able to survive because they have the South Korean government behind them.

Qimonda should be no problem, the parent company is strong, it is still a seedling of old Europe, and it should be able to get support from the government.

Those companies in Micron and Bay Bay, because of their small share and relatively small losses, should be able to survive for a while.

However, Elpida is already burdened with high debts, and I am afraid it will be difficult to survive such losses.

No one thought that Qimonda would be the first to dump it!

Because Qimonda made an investment proposal to them regardless of their face, the investment was not reached, but everyone knew the fact that it was about to go bankrupt.

Don't blame us for being cruel. It's really bad age. Everyone's life is not easy. It is really difficult for the landlord's family to have surplus food.

For these companies, if they want to write an article "On the Fall of Qimonda", then the central idea of ​​this article they wrote will be unprecedentedly consistent: sacrifice you and make thousands of families happy, ah friend Goodbye, goodbye friend...

As long as Qimonda collapses, other companies maintain the same rate of production reduction, and the market will continue to reduce supply by more than 10%, then the selling price is likely to rise to the cash cost, which is 1.3-1.5 US dollars.

In this way, everyone can at least make do with it.

…………

In the rapid development of Samsung's semiconductor business, he played an important role. He officially became the president of Samsung Semiconductor in May last year. This strong man who will lead the entire Samsung in the future has not had a good time recently.

Feng Yiping bought the arm, which made them suddenly vigilant, after all, they also bought the IP of the arm.

Looking at Feng Yiping's posture, I kind of want to build a complete industrial chain around smart phones and mobile devices, and this is what Samsung wants to do.

So, now we are ready to help promote Android, are we assisting our future opponents?

In this regard, the relevant countermeasures department is studying the countermeasures.

The more direct pressure is that he has just taken over, and the semiconductor department has ushered in losses after a few years.

This of course makes him unhappy, he knows the bad temper of the boss Lao Litou very well.

Well now, after hearing the news, he felt that he could finally go to the Spring Festival with peace of mind. .

The same is true for other Hynix and Elpida leaders. Whoops, spring is coming!

American Micron also breathed a sigh of relief, patted his chest and said with some fear, it's okay, it's okay, it's okay to have you dead ahead.

On the other side of Wanwan, there are two companies that would be a little uncomfortable.

Although Qimonda has its own factory ~www.wuxiaspot.com~, because the cost in Germany is too high, it still finds a foundry.

One of them is Huaya Technology, a subsidiary of Formosa Plastics. Due to the accounting period, there are currently 3 billion Taiwan dollars of receivables. Although a lawyer was immediately sent to it, it is estimated that it is difficult to recover.

Another Qimonda foundry, Winbond, also faced this problem.

But when encountering such a creditor, they can only look forward, hoping that Qimonda’s fall will make the price rise, so that they will be better off from another aspect...

In short, on the eve of the Spring Festival, everyone was eagerly looking forward to Qimonda’s official bankruptcy. At this time, they actually envied Goldman Sachs. I really imagined that, like Goldman Sachs, when their peers encountered a crisis, they would quietly kick back. Let him die a little more rounded, faster.

At this time, Feng Yiping was taking Huang Jingping and Amanda on the way to Germany overnight.

At this time, he didn't know that his trip would break some people's dreams.