Chapter 296: The words are not amazing

Compared with a few years ago, Xiao Yuanzheng has gained a lot of weight. The middle-aged man who originally looked very capable, now has a beer blessing. Obviously, he has not escaped the law of middle-aged fatness. Fortunately, his hair is still there.

I said, Director Li, it's really not easy to find you! I called your garment factory based on the phone number you left, but no one answered. Later, I found out that the garment factory had closed down. , and then I asked around again, and then I found out what electric furnace factory you went to...

Xiao Yuanzheng's words must be exaggerated. With his ability, it is not difficult to find Li Weidong, although it is not easy.

Mr. Xiao, I really didn't expect you to look for me! If I had known earlier, I would definitely have come to visit, how dare you condescend to come to Qinghe! Li Weidong laughed and then asked: Mr. Xiao is still working on it now. Foreign trade?

No, I was transferred to the State-owned Assets Administration last year. Xiao Yuanzheng said.

The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission was established in 2003. Before that, the representative of the State-owned Assets Administration was the State-owned Assets Administration. .

Mintai Foreign Trade was originally a state-owned foreign trade company, and Xiao Yuanzheng was also a cadre of the state, and it was normal to be transferred to the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau.

Li Weidong nodded suddenly, and immediately said: Mr. Xiao is now Gao Sheng, no, I can't teach you President Xiao anymore, I have to call you Director Xiao!

What is Director Xiao, I am a junior director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau. Xiao Yuanzheng replied with a smile.

Li Weidong knew, however, that within the system, the title Director was the most fascinated, and you never knew how big an official the Director was.

Xiao Yuanzheng continued: Director Li, I haven't seen you for the past few years. You are also a big business. Your electrical appliance factory is not small, and you also have a production line for microwave ovens, which are high-end household appliances. And I heard Said you still have an agricultural machinery factory?

It's just some larger workshops, not worth mentioning. Li Weidong said with a smile.

Li Weidong is not humble. In front of the leaders of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Bureau, his industry is really similar to a big workshop.

The two exchanged a few more words before Li Weidong asked, Director Xiao, you came to Qinghe specifically to find me, do you have any instructions?

I asked you to write an article. Xiao Yuanzheng said.

Writing an article? Li Weidong was stunned for a moment, and then said, I'm not a writer, so it's not my turn to write an article!

It's up to you to do this! Xiao Yuanzheng continued: You still remember, when we first met,

Tell me a little bit about the economic situation in Japan!

Li Weidong nodded. At that time, in order to make Xiao Yuanzheng not underestimate himself, he did talk about the development trend of Japan's economy after the Plaza Agreement.

Xiao Yuanzheng went on to say: When I went home, I mentioned the things you mentioned to my old man. The old man thought it was very interesting, so he asked me to organize a report and show it to him back. This is a serious matter, so I simply wrote some content and handed it in.

Who knew that two days ago, the old man found me again, saying that the Japanese economic development predicted in that report had all come true! So the old man asked me to write another report to talk about the economic development trend of Japan in the next four to five years. But I don't know this, so I came to you!

Li Weidong's heart suddenly tightened, and he asked, Director Xiao, do you want to give this report to the leader again?

It should be. Otherwise, the old man in the family wouldn't specifically ask me to take out the report. Xiao Yuanzheng nodded.

Li Weidong hesitated for a moment, and finally asked: Director Xiao, I also know that there are some things I shouldn't ask, but I still have to confirm that if this report is written, which leaders can see it? I also have a bottom in my heart.”

I don't know! Xiao Yuanzheng smiled and then said: I really don't know, but even I don't know, it's definitely not a general level leader. If you are specific, you can understand it yourself.

I understand. Li Weidong nodded, and then said, Then I will write a more detailed report, you can choose some suitable ones and report to the leader.

Don't, don't be like this! Xiao Yuanzheng shook his head: I'm very busy over there, I don't have the mind to intervene in this matter. If the leader takes a fancy to it, let me write four or five reports, predicting I can't bear to predict the economic development of the United States and Europe! You will write this report and send it with your signature, and I will be able to distance myself from this matter!

My signature! Li Weidong was startled, and he instantly realized that this was a big opportunity!

Xiao Yuanzheng continued: I have already told the old man at home that the report back then was written as you said, so this time I will let you sign it directly. If the leaders want to read the report again in the future, let me They're looking for you directly! I won't be this microphone anymore!

...

The report is to be handed over to the leaders, and Li Weidong naturally needs to be extra careful.

In later generations, too many scholars have studied the rise and fall of Japan's economy, and various conclusions have emerged one after another, and the research and analysis of many scholars are also very reasonable.

Although scholars have different opinions on the Japanese economy, one thing is certain, that is, the Japanese economy has really lost one of them for three decades.

When this statement was first proposed, it was in 2011. At that time, Japanese economists wrote a book Lost Twenty Years, which said that the Japanese economy has grown in the 20 years from the 1990s to 2010. matter.

As a result, in 2020, the Japanese economy is still the same half-dead old state, so the lost 20 years will become the lost 30 years.

According to Xiao Yuanzheng's request, let Li Weidong write a forecast of the Japanese economy for the next four years, probably until 1995.

However, Li Weidong felt that it was obviously too mediocre to only predict until 1995. If he wanted to show his face in high-level leaders, he had to make bold predictions for two years. It was more appropriate to predict before the Asian financial crisis.

1995 was the peak of the Japanese economy, at least numerically.

That year, although Japan's real estate and stock market collapsed, and a lot of capital was trapped, the exchange rate of the yen reached its peak, and Japan's GDP reached 5.45 trillion US dollars.

After that, Japan's GDP began to decline, dropping by one-fifth within three years. Even in 2020, Japan's GDP will only be 5.05 trillion US dollars, far less than in 1995.

The same is true of per capita GDP. In Japan in 1995, per capita GDP was 43,000 US dollars, and in 2020 it was 40,000 US dollars. Not only did not increase, but the rate of decline was one tenth.

For those who study economics, it is easy to predict an upward economy, just follow the economic growth rate and gradually increase the model, this is not a skill, any college student who studies economics can do it.

But it is much brighter to be able to predict an economy from prosperity to decline, because this is not a judgment made by simply calculating a data model.

Li Weidong felt that he finally had the opportunity to show his face in front of the leader, and it was estimated that he would have this opportunity in his life.

Therefore, in the report, Li Weidong not only stated the problems of the Japanese economy, but also predicted in detail what will happen to the Japanese economy in the next few years, as well as what measures the Japanese government will introduce, and predicted the Japanese economy. , will peak in 1995 and then decline.

In economics, there are actually many predictions like this, but almost all of them are guessing, and none of them can be predicted accurately. It's not so much a prediction as it is a blogger's eyeball.

But as long as one can predict accurately, it will probably be worshipped as a master of economics.

...

At this time in his last life, Li Weidong had already arrived in Japan, and he was working hard to learn Japanese in order to get a job opportunity.

In order to master Japanese as soon as possible, Li Weidong will stare at the news on TV whenever he has time, practice listening and speaking, so Li Weidong has a very good understanding of the current political and economic situation in Japan during this period.

It took Li Weidong three days to finally write the report, and then hand it over to Xiao Yuanzheng.

Let me appreciate Director Li's masterpiece first! Xiao Yuanzheng took the report and read it carefully.

In order to cope with the possible recession in the economy, the Japanese government will reform the currency, adopt a vigorous expansionary monetary policy, and adjust interest rates. , to zero interest rates in four years!”

Xiao Yuanzheng's eyes widened, and he continued, Director Li, you really dare to predict that the Japanese government has just raised interest rates five times. I remember that the interest rate in Japan is about 6% now, right? How can it be lowered? to zero interest!

Yes, this is my judgment. I think Japan will eventually fall into the liquidity trap! Li Weidong said.

The liquidity trap is a concept in economics. It was proposed by economist Keynes. It refers to the fact that when the interest rate level in a certain period is reduced to a lower level, the elasticity of demand may become infinite. At this time, no matter how much money is added, will be stored by people.

Once in the epidemic trap, monetary policy will not be able to change the interest rate market. Throughout the world, only Japan has entered the liquidity trap.

Xiao Yuanzheng shook his head and said: The stock market and real estate in Japan are now falling, and many economists predict that Japan will cut interest rates, but it is estimated that a reduction of only 1% to 2% is enough to reduce the stock market and real estate. The market has recovered. Moreover, Japan's current economy has always maintained growth, so how could it fall into a liquidity trap!

Li Weidong smiled slightly: Let's just wait and see.

Xiao Yuanzheng continued to look down, his brows wrinkled again: It is expected that starting from 1992, the Bank of Japan will increase the issuance of bonds, and it is estimated that 45 trillion yen will be issued within three years! 45 trillion, I am not mistaken! According to the current day The exchange rate between the dollar and the dollar is equivalent to... do you have a calculator here?

Don't forget, it's equivalent to 350 billion US dollars! Li Weidong replied.

Yeah, 350 billion US dollars, how is this possible! Japan's GDP last year was just over 3 trillion US dollars! How could it be possible to find so many national debts! ​​Xiao Yuanzheng shook his head and said.

Director Xiao, you can see clearly. The 45 trillion yen I mentioned is the additional issuance of government bonds on the basis of the original. The original normal issuance of government bonds is not included in this. Li Weidong replied with a smile.

Your prediction is less reliable than those economists in Beijing! Xiao Yuanzheng pouted and continued to read the report.

The Japanese government will reform the tax system and increase the land value tax. Right! The Japanese real estate has been falling all the time. If the land value tax is imposed, the real estate market will never recover! How could the Japanese government do such a stupid thing. Xiao Yuanzheng said said.

Li Weidong smiled and said nothing. It is true that Japan is about to levy a land value tax. This land value tax was levied until 1998, but after that, the land value tax was only suspended, not abolished.

The Japanese government will increase financial investment in the fields of communications and science and technology; limit loan imports, reduce foreign trade excesses, and expand the scope of application of import taxes; adjust commodity prices and lower public utility charges such as energy; establish new low-interest loans and radical and Special insurance system; reduce corporate tax burden and promote foreign investment. I don’t know how many of the items you listed can be realized!” Xiao Yuanzheng said with a smile.

The items listed by Li Weidong are all measures introduced by the Japanese government in the 1990s to deal with the economic bubble, and naturally all of them will be realized.

Japan's GDP will reach its peak in 1995, and will enter negative growth in 1996! Director Li, you can really say this, Japan's economy has been growing for 40 or 50 years, even if it cannot maintain rapid growth , it won't be negative growth! Xiao Yuanzheng kept shaking his head with an incredible expression.

Li Weidong laughed and thought to himself, I haven't predicted that China's economy will surpass Japan's in 2010! Otherwise I'll scare you silly!

Xiao Yuanzheng finally turned to the last pages of the report.

The recession of the Japanese stock market and real estate market will have an impact on Japanese politics, and the Liberal Democratic Party will lose the election? How is this possible!

Xiao Yuanzheng raised his head: Director Li, this joke is too big! Since World War II, Japan has always been governed by the Liberal Democratic Party, how could the Liberal Democratic Party lose!

There is no such absolute thing in the world. It is normal for the governments of Western countries to fail the economy and be ousted by voters. For example, the old American...

Li Weidong's fierce words, he originally wanted to say that Bush won the Iraq war, but because he failed to do a good job in the economy, he was not re-elected in the end.

But when the words came to his lips, Li Weidong suddenly remembered that it was 1991, and Bush Sr. had not stepped down!

Li Weidong had to change his mind and said: Just like President Hoover in the 1920s, he lost to Roosevelt because he failed to do a good job in the economy!

Having said that, your prediction is still too outrageous! Xiao Yuanzheng went on to say, Your report is really amazing. If I submit this report, I don't know how many people there will be. , take this as a joke!

You asked me for a report, isn't it because my forecast for Japan's economic prospects is different from others! If my forecast is consistent with other economists, then the leader can go directly to the reports of those economists! Li Weidong said with a smile.

Xiao Yuanzheng looked like he was throwing his hands at the shopkeeper: Okay! Anyway, I just want a report to communicate with my old man. Just make a joke! It's you who will be laughed at at that time!