Chapter 377 Academician Li is also called Li Weidong

On the day of the lecture, Li Weidong came to the lecture site early, and then he was taken to a lounge.

There are six people giving lectures today, and Li Weidong is ranked fourth, which belongs to the time period when he is tired of listening to the toilet and frequently goes to the toilet.

The first teacher is about international politics, the second is about stocks and futures markets, and the third is about finance, trade and economics.

Li Weidong talks about the Japanese economy, the fifth teacher talks about sociology and population, and the sixth teacher talks about the latest technology in the world.

A young staff member came forward with a document, thought for a while about what to call Li Weidong, and then said, Mr. Li, your lecture notes are ready, please take a look first, if there is no problem , and it will be distributed to the leaders of the ministries who are listening to the lecture in a while.

Li Weidong took the handout, read it again, and then nodded: No problem.

The young staff went on to say, I heard that you didn't prepare a slideshow, so we won't turn on the slide projector when you're talking for a while.

It's better not to turn on the slide projector, at least the room will be brighter. Li Weidong said.

In 1993, there were not so many computer-aided devices in lectures, and it was even more impossible to do PPT courseware.

At that time, the normal operation of lectures was blackboard plus lecture notes, and if it was higher-end, it would be equipped with a slide projector. While the teacher lectures above, the assistant manually changes the pictures of the slide projector below.

The principle of the slide projector is very simple. The light box is added with a convex lens. It is estimated that the younger generation has never seen such an old-fashioned slide projector. However, in the 1990s, the slide projector was still a very common teaching aid.

In those teaching competitions held by the education department at that time, classrooms with curtains were often chosen, just to facilitate the use of slide projectors.

Li Weidong waited for a while in the lounge, and an old man was invited in. There was a young man behind the old man, who should be the old man's student, who helped to change the slides during the lecture.

Academician Situ, this way please! As usual, the young staff brought a handout for the old man to check.

The old man brought a slideshow, so the staff took the slideshow to see how clear the slideshow was and whether it could be played normally.

At this time, Li Weidong already knew the identity of this old man. His name is Situjian. formulation of economic policies.

Today, the third speaker on finance, trade and economics is this Academician Situ.

Situjian was also idle. He looked at Li Weidong and asked, Young man, where is your tutor?

Situjian regarded Li Weidong as coming with his mentor.

Li Weidong immediately stood up and replied respectfully, Academician Situ, I don't have a mentor.

No tutor? Could it be that you are lecturing today? Situ Jian asked with a smile.

It was me who gave the lecture. Li Weidong nodded seriously.

Tell me, what can you say? Situjian thought Li Weidong was joking with himself again.

I talk about the Japanese economy. Li Weidong replied.

Situjian was stunned for a moment, and said with a mocking expression, I really don't know the person who talks about the Japanese economy today. Looking at his resume, he is the chairman of the board and the director of the factory. He should be an entrepreneur. Could it be you!

right,

My name is Li Weidong, and I work in a business. Li Weidong nodded shyly.

Situjian looked at Li Weidong up and down, still unwilling to believe Li Weidong's words.

Li Weidong said: Academician Situ, if I wanted to lie to you, I wouldn't choose such a place! And this room is not for anyone to come in. If I don't teach, people may let me stay here. Are you on!

That's right! Liars won't be brought here. Situ Jian nodded, and then asked in surprise, How old are you this year?

Twenty-five years old! Li Weidong replied.

So young! Situjian showed a shocking expression on his face, and he regained his calm after ten seconds, and then he sighed, I saw your resume and thought you were at least fifty or sixty years old. , I didn't expect to be only twenty-five years old.

In general, it is normal for a large state-owned enterprise to be a leader in his fifties, and a young and promising person in his forties. So when Situ Jian saw the names of Factory Director and Chairman, he instinctively thought that Li Weidong must be in his fifties.

But I didn't expect Li Weidong to be so young, only twenty-five years old.

Twenty-five years old, younger than the students led by Situ Jian!

Fortunately, a top-level scholar like Situ Jian had seen many geniuses on weekdays. For example, the prodigy class of Tsinghua University, who studied for an undergraduate degree at the age of 12 or 13 and graduated with a Ph.D. at the age of 17 or 18, Situ Jian has also seen it with his own eyes.

I see many geniuses on weekdays, so after learning about Li Weidong's age, although Situjian was surprised, he didn't seem very rude, and he immediately calmed down.

At this moment, a voice sounded from the door: Situ, what are you talking about with a young man!

Situjian looked back and said, Old Huang, this guy is not a descendant. This young man is called Li Weidong. Like us, he is teaching a class!

Hearing the name Old Huang, Li Weidong immediately realized that the person who came was Professor Huang Liwei of Central University of Finance and Economics, who was the professor who explained stocks and futures. It is said that Professor Huang participated in the establishment of the two major stock exchanges in China and the formulation of trading rules. He can be said to be the top securities expert in China.

Li Weidong? You are that Li Weidong! Professor Huang Wei looked at Li Weidong up and down, and then said, I heard from Professor Zhao from our school before that there was a young man who accurately predicted Japan's economic policy. , and even the rotation of Japanese political parties was mentioned by him, is that you? I thought it was a young man in his forties, but I didn't expect to be so young! What a formidable future!

The Professor Zhao in Huang Liwei's mouth is the professor Zhao Yue who Li Weidong met at the symposium before, and he is also from the Central University of Finance and Economics.

Li Weidong nodded and replied humbly: Professor Huang is right, in front of the two teachers, I am a junior.

Situ Jian asked, Old Huang, what did you say about predicting Japan's economic policy and party rotation?

It's like this... Huang Liwei briefly introduced what happened, and finally added: Our young man also predicted that Japan will fall into a liquidity trap!

Liquidity trap? How can this be... Situjian stopped suddenly, but then he thought seriously.

Huang Liwei said: When I first heard it, I thought it was impossible, but looking at the current interest rate cut trend in Japan, I really can't tell! I study securities. In the past month, the Nikkei Index has gone from It fell more points, the Bank of Japan cut interest rates, but did not stimulate the stock market, which is not good news for the Japanese economy.

Situ Jian said; Japan's trade data is relatively normal. After a drop in 1991, it has begun to rebound last year. From the first two quarters of this year, it has recovered to the level of 1989. From this perspective, The chances of falling into a liquidity trap are unlikely.”

Li Weidong said, Academician Situ, don't forget that Japan's current trade structure has changed. In the 1980s, Japan's trade was mainly made in Japan, and Japan's trade figures were genuine Japanese products.

And now the direct foreign investment of industrial transfer has gradually become part of Japan's domestic industrial supply chain, and the figures of this part are also added to Japan's trade data. Today's trade figures in Japan are much larger than in the 1980s.

Situjian said: In the modern industrial system, industrial transfer is a very normal thing. And similar things have been experienced in the past. For example, after World War II, some industries were transferred from the United States to Japan and Europe, and Japanese industries were transferred to Asia. The four little dragon countries, and now these industries have begun to transfer to China, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries.

In the process of this industry, many emerging economies were born, such as the economic recovery of Western Europe in the 1950s, Japan in the 1960s, and the Four Asian Tigers in the 1970s. And those countries whose industries have been transferred, such as the United States, Japan, etc., have not fallen into recession because of this.

That's because the previous industrial transfer has been transferred to the right place! Whether it's Japan or South Korea, they all have an environment to develop their industries.

Li Weidong went on to say: Now, Japan's industries are rapidly shifting to Southeast Asia, which is not a suitable place for investment. These countries do not have industrial genes.

Do you mean that the political situation in Southeast Asian countries is unstable? Situjian asked.

This is only one aspect, such as infrastructure, population quality, market potential, etc., which are all unstable factors. But the most important thing is finance, which will be a huge risk. Li Weidong replied.

Finance in Southeast Asia is relatively weak, but when it comes to huge risks, I really don't see it. Situjian said.

Li Weidong replied: Japan and South Korea and other emerging economies in Asia are export-oriented economies, and they are very dependent on the world market, while Thailand, Malaysia and other Southeast Asian countries are also going outward. the road to a large economy.

Once the whole of East Asia and Southeast Asia has become an export-oriented economy, it will really affect the whole body! As long as there is a breach in one of the countries, there will be a knock-on effect, causing the entire export-oriented economy in East Asia and Southeast Asia to collapse!

What are you talking about? Situ Jian asked.

Li Weidong went on to say: It is more difficult to hit the real economy, but the financial system is different. Developed countries like Japan are unlikely to be hit by finance, but what about countries like Thailand and Indonesia in Southeast Asia? Can they Withstand the financial blow?

In the financial market, with leverage, one dollar can move one hundred dollars, and a few international speculators can gather hundreds of millions of dollars. With leverage, it is tens of billions of dollars. The wealth of Southeast Asian countries can be resisted. What?

Once a financial breach occurs in Southeast Asian countries, it will attract people from all over the world to come to pick up bargains. With Wall Street's ability, it shouldn't be a problem to spend tens of billions of dollars, right? At that time, even Japan, it is estimated that it can only protect itself!

When the financial system is hit, it will inevitably drag down the real economy. Japan has huge investments in Southeast Asian countries, so the losses suffered by Japan may be even greater than those in Southeast Asian countries. Until then, the liquidity trap will really come!

Huang Liwei's professor immediately said: If what you said is true, it will be an economic crisis sweeping across Asia! What do you think is the probability of such a thing happening?

One hundred percent! Because this is a structural problem. If the economic structure of Southeast Asian countries remains unchanged, the Asian financial crisis will happen sooner or later! Li Weidong sighed and continued: In terms of time, I think within five years, what I said will inevitably happen. the Asian financial crisis.”

In five years? Asian financial crisis? You dare to say it! Situ Jian shook his head, obviously not believing what Li Weidong said.

Li Weidong didn't justify it either. He smiled slightly and said, Of course, these are all immature speculations of my younger generation. If the two teachers think something is wrong, they can be regarded as Tu Yile!

That's fine, just be happy with Tuyi! Situ Jian said with a smile.

Situjian has never played games, so he obviously doesn't know what Tu Yile is!

...

Japan's share of global trade peaked in 1986, when the US and Japan's share of foreign trade was nearly equal. In 1994, it was the second peak of Japan's trade. In that year, Japan's share of global trade was only a little less than in 1986.

Since 1994, Japan's global trade volume has been declining. By 2020, Japan's foreign trade volume will be similar to that in the 1960s.

The reason is, of course, the structural problems of the Japanese economy, and the Asian financial crisis has also become a catalyst for accelerating this situation.

At the end of the 1980s, with the appreciation of the yen, Japan began to increase its foreign investment, and hundreds of billions of dollars were poured out, creating the so-called four tigers in Asia.

The Four Little Tigers in Asia have also become part of the Japanese supply chain because they received the industrial chain transferred from Japan, and in the process, the figures on Japanese trade have also been generated.

However, there are many problems in Southeast Asia, such as backward infrastructure, unstable political situation, low worker efficiency, etc. In short, the real economic industry of the four tigers in Asia cannot absorb a large amount of capital investment from Japan.

For example, Japan invested a sum of money to build a factory in the Philippines. When the factory was completed, it was found that qualified workers could not be recruited. Filipinos would rather bask in the sun than go to work in the factory. After finally recruiting workers, they found that the power supply was insufficient. ; Solved the power problem, and found that because the transportation facilities were too poor, the produced things could not be shipped out;

The traffic problem was solved, the Philippine politicians were re-elected, and the newly-appointed officials changed their policies; when the newly-appointed officials were settled, the drug lords and anti-government forces came to make trouble again, and it was enough to kidnap two Japanese company executives. A headache for Japanese investors.

In addition, Southeast Asian countries have never established a complete industrial system, and they cannot consume too many industrial products themselves, so they can only be used as a link in the industrial chain of Japanese companies.

When the real economy of the Asian Tigers cannot digest Japan's huge investment, then the funds will inevitably flow into those industries of virtual assets, such as the financial industry, which will also push up the local currency bubble.

Southeast Asian countries are obviously aware of the bubble in their local currencies, but they have resorted to control measures, but instead of choosing capital controls and tightening monetary policy, they have adopted loose monetary policy, which is obviously an act of death in the eyes of later generations.

International financial speculators like Soros have long smelled the bubble, but they have never had a chance to start. Until Thailand announced to abandon the fixed exchange rate and adopt a floating exchange rate, the financial speculators finally realized that their opportunity had come!

Economics has a concept of triple paradox, which means that under the conditions of an open economy, the independence of the domestic monetary policy, the stability of the exchange rate, and the complete liquidity of capital cannot be achieved at the same time. two goals while giving up the other.

Theoretically, it is also possible for these three elements to exist at the same time, that is, a country has an infinite amount of foreign exchange. When the foreign exchange market fluctuates, it can take out an infinite amount of foreign exchange to stabilize the domestic currency.

So the United States does not apply to the ternary paradox. After all, the Fed can print money indefinitely.

Thailand originally had exchange rate stability and capital liquidity, but did not have the independence of monetary policy.

The vast majority of countries in the world do not have monetary policy independence, and there are no more than ten countries in the world that truly have monetary policy independence.

To find out whether a country has monetary policy independence or not, it's as simple as seeing if the United States has designated the country as a currency manipulator.

As long as the United States is listed as a currency manipulator, it means that the national currency can be used as a tool to adjust the economy, without looking at the face of the dollar, it can be regarded as the country has the independence of monetary policy.

In the face of the domestic currency bubble, Thailand hopes to use monetary policy to regulate and control, so Thailand decided to give up the fixed exchange rate in exchange for the independence of monetary policy.

However, Thailand does not have enough foreign exchange to deal with international speculators. As a result, the Thai baht was hit, the dominoes fell, and the Asian financial crisis broke out. The Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah, and Malaysian ringgit have successively become the targets of international speculators.

Later, as more and more international speculators joined in, the Hong Kong dollar, Korean won and Japanese yen were also attacked one after another.

The Hong Kong dollar relied on state-backed foreign exchange, and a large amount of foreign exchange was poured into it, which finally repelled the international home raids; South Korea sold its assets to Wall Street, and even South Korea’s state-owned banks sold them, and finally exchanged for foreign exchange emergency relief, but in the end it was also The vitality was severely damaged; Japan, on the other hand, had a solid family background and large foreign exchange reserves, and it was hard to bear it.

However, Japan's investment in Southeast Asia has suffered huge losses. Those investments that could have brought returns are all worthless, and some have even become negative assets.

Therefore, although the Asian financial crisis was caused by the economic structure of Southeast Asian countries, it was Japan that caused this economic structure.

Through investment, Japan transferred its own economic bubble to other Asian countries, and then when the bubble burst, everyone died together.

However, international financial speculators are not only found in Wall Street, but also in Tokyo. In the process of the Asian financial crisis, the shadow of the yen can always be seen, and Japanese financial speculators are expected to make a lot of money.

...

Several other scholars also arrived one after another, and Li Weidong got to know a few top titans.

These scholars can all meet the leaders by appointment, and they can also speak in front of the leaders. Knowing such people is an extraordinary resource in itself.

At the same time, the leaders of ministries and commissions who participated in the study also arrived at the venue one after another.

He An'an's uncle walked into the venue and greeted everyone he met.

Old Wu, it's very early!

Old Zhu, the plan I mentioned last time, I have already sent it to you, take the time to take a look, I am still waiting for your reply!

Minister Wang, I went to investigate that policy last week. If we really want to implement it, we have to cooperate with our two units. We just can't slap it with a single slap!

The thing I said on the phone yesterday, the document has been sent to my secretary, okay, I'll look at it right away when I go back!

Uncle He was also very busy, he walked in all the way and dealt with several things by the way.

Finally, Uncle He found his seat and sat down. The staff immediately stepped forward and poured water into the teacup in front of Uncle He.

Uncle He opened the folder on the table, which contained the lecture notes for today's lecture.

International Geopolitics after the Disintegration of the Soviet Union, the keynote speaker, Wang Changning, is Professor Wang of the Foreign Affairs University!

The development of modern stock and futures markets, the speaker, Huang Liwei. Let me think about it, he seems to be a professor at the Central University of Finance.

Econometric Analysis of Regional Fiscal Differences and Foreign Investment, the speaker, Situ Jian, is an academician of the Academy of Social Sciences!

Interpretation of Japan's economic policy after the 1990s, and its impact on Asia, the speaker, Li Weidong... Who is this? Is it the Institute of Japanese Studies of the Academy of Social Sciences who talks about Japan's economic policy? How often have the leaders been around? Such a think tank?

By the way, this name sounds familiar, yes, I remembered that the person An An was looking for was also called Li Weidong!

There are a lot of people with the surname Li, and they are also called Weidong, which is the same name as the academician!

It's really different from the same name! I really should let that kid Li Weidong come over to see and see, and see that Academician Li, also called Li Weidong, can speak in front of the leaders! Look at you again, self-employed, hey!

Thinking of this, Uncle He unconsciously pouted, and his dissatisfaction with Li Weidong rose again in his heart.