Chapter 437 Your crisis, my timing

When Li Weidong said the words Asian Financial Crisis, everyone showed a surprised expression.

Situjian even said, Xiao Li, you are a little unreliable. For things like the financial crisis, how can you wait for it!

Li Weidong guessed that there would be such a result, and he explained: Mr. Situ, according to my judgment, within three to five years, there will inevitably be a serious financial crisis in Asia, and the first in Southeast Asia is the most serious, and the economy is very likely. Go back more than ten years.

What's the basis? Situ Jian asked immediately.

I have said before that Japan's economy has serious structural problems, and among Asian countries, in addition to Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, Indonesia, and Singapore, their economies also have structural problems. sexuality.

Li Weidong paused, and then said: And the source of all this is still Japan. Japan's large-scale investment in Southeast Asian countries has indeed brought economic growth to these countries, but it has also brought debt and economic bubbles to these countries. .

These Southeast Asian countries you mentioned are now richer than ours! The man with glasses said.

Economic growth and GDP growth cannot cover up structural economic problems. For example, Thailand is a relatively wealthy country in Southeast Asia, right? But Thailand's short-term debt problem is very serious. As far as I know, Thailand's short-term debt problem is very serious. The amount of short-term debt is already very serious, and it may have exceeded their foreign exchange reserves. Li Weidong said.

Where did you get the data? Huang Liwei's professor immediately asked.

Don't look at the data, it's inevitable.

Li Weidong continued: Let's start with Japan's investment in Thailand. In recent years, Japan has begun to invest in Thailand on a large scale. Initially, Japan invested in manufacturing, but Thailand's manufacturing capacity cannot digest so much investment in a short period of time. , so where did the extra hot money go?

Financial market. Huang Liwei replied without hesitation.

Li Weidong nodded: Yes, it is the financial market. When a large amount of hot money flows in and the physical market cannot digest it, what problems will it cause?

Inflation! Professor Huang continued.

Li Weidong then asked: If I don't want inflation, how should I control it at the financial level?

Raise interest rates! Professor Huang said.

If the bank raises the interest rate, the money will enter the bank, and the hot money in the market will decrease, which will naturally weaken inflation. This is the most basic financial knowledge, and it belongs to the content that Professor Huang is too lazy to explain to the students.

Li Weidong nodded immediately: Yes, Thailand uses this method to ensure that there will be no serious inflation in the country by maintaining a high interest rate. However, it should be noted that Thailand implements a fixed exchange rate system!

Hearing the words fixed exchange rate system, Professor Huang's expression changed slightly, and he already realized the problem.

At that time, Thailand implemented a fixed exchange rate system. The exchange rate of the Thai baht was closely pegged to the US dollar, that is, the amount of Thai baht exchanged for one US dollar was fixed and there would not be a big fluctuation.

At that time, the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Thai baht was 1 US dollar to 25 baht.

The Thai government uses a lot of foreign exchange every year to maintain this exchange rate.

When the Thai baht exchange rate rose, those who held US dollars found that by exchanging US dollars for Thai baht and depositing them in a Thai bank, the interest they received was much more cost-effective than direct deposits in US dollars.

As a result, a large amount of overseas capital began to pour into Thailand and entered the Thai banks to obtain higher interest. The largest investor is naturally Japan.

These overseas hot money enters Thailand's financial system. Apart from creating bubbles, it is not good for the development of Thailand's real economy. At the same time, Thailand has to pay high interest for this hot money, so the hot money enters Thailand in the name of investment. The financial market has actually become Thailand's debt.

It's like you borrow one million from the bank, but you lock the one million at home without any investment or consumption, and at the same time you have to pay interest to the bank, which will definitely be a blood loss!

The more overseas funds flow into Thailand, the more debts Thailand has, and the more debts it has, the less money it can repay. At this time, it can only be used to support debts, tear down the east wall to make up for the west wall, and use new debts to repay old debts. .

This is actually a bit like a Ponzi scheme, promising new members high returns, letting them invest money, and then sending the money to old members as a return on investment to keep the scam going.

By 1996, Thailand's foreign debt reached $112.6 billion, of which $48 billion was short-term debt that was about to be repaid. At that time, Thailand's foreign exchange reserves were only 38 billion US dollars, and Thailand's foreign exchange reserves were obviously not enough to repay its debts.

At the same time, Japan began to fall into economic recession, investment from Japan decreased, and the weakening of the yen exchange rate increased the competitiveness of Japanese exports, thereby weakening Thailand's exports.

The so-called Asian Tigers at that time were all export-oriented economies. The decrease in foreign investment, coupled with the decline in the competitiveness of domestic exports, made the Ponzi scheme of Thailand's debt unsustainable.

In the end, Thailand decided to abandon the fixed exchange rate, the purpose is to reduce the pressure of debt.

However, the international financial giants such as Soros have long seen the problems in Thailand's financial level. When Thailand abandoned the fixed exchange rate, international hedge funds immediately launched an attack on the Thai baht, and the prelude to the Asian financial crisis began.

The situation of other Asian tigers is similar to that of Thailand. In order to attract foreign investment, it maintains a fixed exchange rate while expanding financial freedom.

When a large number of hot money flows in, in order to maintain the exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves can only be used to make up, resulting in an increase in foreign debt, thus giving international speculators an opportunity.

Strictly speaking, the Asian financial crisis is not the reason why the Four Asian Tigers fell into recession.

The reason for the decline of the Asian Tigers is that their export-oriented economy has structural problems and relies too much on foreign capital. The Asian financial crisis only brought out these structural problems.

Huang Liwei is a professor at the Central University of Finance and Economics. He is naturally very knowledgeable. When Li Weidong mentioned that Thailand has a fixed exchange rate, Huang Liwei already understood the debt problem in Thailand.

In an instant, Huang Liwei's expression became serious, and Situ Jian and the man with glasses next to him, seeing Huang Liwei's appearance, immediately understood that Li Weidong should have said it!

The two did not have time to ask in detail, but Huang Liwei took the lead and asked: Xiao Li, even if Thailand has a very serious debt problem as you said, it does not mean that there will be a regional financial crisis, or even an Asian financial crisis. crisis?

And the department in charge of the economy in Thailand is not a fool, they can't just watch Thailand go wrong, right? Thailand's ruling authorities will definitely introduce some measures.

Professor Huang, what method do you think should be used to solve the debt problem in Thailand? Li Weidong asked with a smile.

We can start from two aspects. One is to restrict the circulation of capital, such as foreign exchange exchange controls, so that hot money can be restricted at the source. Huang Liwei replied.

Li Weidong laughed and said, Capital control is almost impossible in a capitalist country. I can guarantee that today Thailand will restrict the flow of funds, and tomorrow those foreign capital will flee Thailand.

Then use the second method, starting from the exchange rate, you can use some means to control the exchange rate to a certain extent. Huang Liwei continued.

In Li Weidong's mind, this Huang Liwei is worthy of being a Chinese financial expert, and the first shot is the two usual methods of capital control and exchange rate manipulation.

Then Li Weidong said: Then if we start with the exchange rate, it is equivalent to abandoning the fixed exchange rate. At that time, not only foreign capital will decrease, but domestic capital in Thailand will also flee, and the Thai baht will inevitably depreciate, which can indeed solve the problem of hot money inflow. .

But there is another question, how should those international financial speculators want to take a piece of the pie? Don't forget, Thailand's financial market is completely open, and those international hedge funds can enter at any time. And Thailand's foreign exchange reserves are not large. Once Thailand runs out of bullets, what will be the consequences?

Huang Liwei frowned and thought for a while, and then answered: If all of what you said is realized, then Thailand will become the meal of the international financial giants, and the entire Thai economy will be finished!\

,"That's right, and after eating Thailand's meal, the international financial predators will become stronger and will accumulate more ammunition. At that time, they will attack like other countries and regions around them, such as the Philippines and Malaysia. , Indonesia, the economic structure of these countries is very similar to Thailand.”

Li Weidong paused, then said: These few countries are enough to feed the international financial giants. Once these people are fed and drunk, the whole of Asia may suffer. Even South Korea and Japan, It's not immune! This will be an Asian financial crisis!

Next to him, Situjian said, Xiao Li, what you said sounds like acting in a movie, but if you think about it carefully, it's not impossible. The word Asian financial crisis sounds creepy. !

The man with glasses said: According to you, foreign investment is not necessarily a good thing! As you said, Thailand is the problem because of too much foreign investment. Our country Shouldn't you be careful about that too?

Li Weidong smiled and replied: Southeast Asian countries are all small countries, and their population, land and resources cannot support huge investments. It is no exaggeration to say that the entire Southeast Asia, even Myanmar, Vietnam and Cambodia, cannot afford it. investment in Japan.

But our country is different. We are a big country. Our country's population, land and resources can handle foreign investment, let alone a mere Japan. Even if the whole world invests, we can handle it!

The man with glasses nodded, then asked: If the Asian financial crisis you mentioned really happened, what good would it be for our negotiations to enter the World Trade Organization?

Our country's financial market is not open to the outside world, so the financial crisis will not affect us. When other markets in Asia are in a severe recession, our Chinese market will be particularly important!

Li Weidong went on to say: Foreigners let us join the WTO, not to help China develop trade, but to gain access to China's market. China's entry into the WTO can make it easier for their products and services to be sold to China. Come.

Therefore, the more eager countries are to gain access to the Chinese market, the more eager they are to hope that China will join the World Trade Organization as soon as possible. If we want to speed up the negotiation, or if we want to find better conditions, we must have the desire of other national teams in the Chinese market.

If the other party feels that without the Chinese market, then their economy will not be able to grow, it will stagnate, or even the economy will collapse, then this country will beg us to negotiate, it will be eager for us to join the WTO one day earlier, or even help We convince other member states.

If we want to achieve this, we must first be hard on ourselves, and we must do a good job in our own economic construction. When our economy develops and the market becomes larger, other countries have to count on us to eat, and it depends on our face. Things like joining the WTO are naturally a matter of course.

Secondly, it is to rely on external forces. The Asian financial crisis is an external factor. Take Japan as an example. Japan has huge investments in many Asian countries. If the Asian financial crisis occurs, Japan's economic losses will be the most serious.

Until that time, a healthy and growing Chinese market will be the life-saving straw for the Japanese economy. Do you think Japan will still prevent us from participating in the World Trade Organization?

The same principle can be applied to the United States and European countries. If other markets in Asia decline or even collapse, Americans must find a new market to make up for their losses, and the Chinese market will be their only one If the Americans ask us for a choice, will the WTO accession negotiations between us and the United States become much easier?

So it is! The man with glasses nodded suddenly.

At this time, Situ Jian, who was next to him, finally opened his mouth to introduce: Xiao Li, this is Feng Bu. Our country's WTO accession negotiations were led by Feng Bu. Today's meeting was also convened by him.

Li Weidong pondered to himself that the main post of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation is not Feng, which means that this Feng department must be a deputy, but he can lead the important task of entering the WTO negotiation. Among the several deputy posts of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation, this Feng should be Also ranked high.

Then Li Weidong quickly introduced himself: Feng Bu, hello, my name is Li Weidong. Chairman of the puppy group.

Chairman Li, you don't need to introduce yourself. I know you. I was there when you gave a lecture last time! Feng Bu said.

It's all little tricks, it's ugly! Li Weidong answered modestly.

However, Feng Bu shook his head: Chairman Li, your judgment about the Asian financial crisis just now really opened my eyes, let's not say whether the Asian financial crisis will really happen, just your idea, It is of great reference value. I don't know if it is inconvenient for you, but I can put what I just said into written content, and I can study it carefully.

Situ Jian, who was next to him, also persuaded: Xiao Li, the possibility of the Asian financial crisis you raised is indeed of great reference value. When you go back, let's compile a detailed written report, and then let the comrades of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation. Make a concise content and pass it to the leader for review.

Looks like it's time for me, the prophet, to make a judgment again! Li Weidong secretly said in his heart.

He is very clear that every report, as long as it can be handed to the leader, will become his own political capital. Of course, this kind of thing can't be rejected.

So Li Weidong nodded and replied: After I go back, I will immediately organize a written report and show it to the two teachers and the Feng department for review!