Chapter 112 Before the Storm
"Director Wang?" Su Yu whispered.
The situation at the hotel that night flashed through my mind, and I understood, and said: "What is the basic task your leader gave you? I have a little spare money in my hand, but not much, and I need this money at any time. If it's used, it's okay to leave it in your bank for three or five days, but it won't work for any longer period."
His current account bank is China Commercial Bank.
As the largest bank in the country and known as the "Universal Bank", although China Merchants Bank has misjudged the central bank's monetary strategy, it will also be affected by the market's "money shortage" crisis under the current circumstances, but its ability to withstand risks Capability has always been the strongest in the domestic banking industry.
in other words……
The money in his hand is nothing more than a drop in the bucket for China Merchants Bank, and its deposits and withdrawals have little impact.
But for local commercial banks like Qianjiang Bank, it's different.
Although the relationship between Huang Yu and him was not that of a good friend, they could still chat for a few words. He had no reason to refuse something like this, which was easy to do, provided help in times of need, and had certain benefits for his own interests.
"The basic task is 7 million..." Huang Yu said, "Of course, if the Su brothers can deposit more funds into our bank and attract more customers to deposit funds in our bank, as long as the current deposit period can For more than 7 days, I personally can give Brother Su a rebate based on daily interest settlement at an annual interest rate of 1%."
"7 million..."
Su Yu pondered for a moment and said, "Okay, please send me the address of your branch and I will come over to open an account tomorrow."
"Thank you so much, Brother Su." Huang Yu said very gratefully, "If you need my help in the future, just ask. As long as I can do it, I will never refuse."
"Okay!" Su Yu responded, chatted for a few words, and then hung up the phone.
Immediately afterwards, he turned his attention to the stock market and saw that at this time, the stock market had closed. After successive declines, the Shanghai Stock Index had fallen to 2073.11 points, which was just one step away from the early support mark of 2000 points. while the ChiNext Index, during this period of continuous decline in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, actually stalled near the 1,000-point mark, and has been oscillating back and forth between 1,000 and 1,025 points.
As for individual stocks...
After Su Yu had previously exited the Shanghai Stock Exchange, it hit a rebound high of 20.36 yuan. In more than ten days of adjustment, the stock price has fallen to 15.23 yuan, a correction of almost 25%, and the intraday trading volume has shrunk. Within 100 million, market popularity remains undiminished; Hua Qingbao's share price has dropped from a high of nearly 40 yuan to 31.25 yuan, and market attention is still at a high level.
Internet Speed Technology and Fenda Technology.
In the market shortage of money, institutions that entered in the early stage have withdrawn funds and avoided market risks. The retracement is similar to that of Shanghai Steel Union and Hua Qingbao, and does not reflect stability.
Now, the stock prices of the two stocks are fixed at 43.67 yuan and 15.46 yuan respectively, with market values of 8.734 billion and 2.319 billion respectively.
LeTV retraced about 10%.
Flush and Oriental Fortune did not move much and have been trading sideways at the previous price, following the fluctuations of the GEM.
I saw the trend of these stocks in the past ten days, as well as the sharp correction of early popular concept stocks in the entire market, while the low-level GEM stocks that no one paid attention to and had no institutional positions were held back amid the endless chatter of heavyweight stocks in the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index. .
Su Yu is more clear about the certainty of the market bottom.
He carefully examined the main falling stocks and main falling sectors in the entire market during this period, and found that they were basically concentrated on the main board of large financials and white horses, blue chip stocks and the high core concepts of GEM with heavy institutional holdings.
That is to say...
During this period, the main falling stocks have been heavyweight stocks held by institutions.
As for the core popular GEM concept stocks, the reason for their sharp correction is more affected by the market sentiment during the continuous decline of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index.
But again...
In the main board market, except for big financial, white horse, and blue chips, which have heavy institutional holdings.
Many other unpopular small ticket trends that no one pays attention to are basically the same as most of the constituent stocks of the ChiNext Index. When the Shanghai Stock Index fell, they no longer chose to follow them, but chose to trade sideways.
After a brief review, Su Yu checked the messages in the two groups he had added.
Determine the level of market sentiment.
I saw...
In the retail student group, there were not many complaints anymore. The entire group seemed very silent, with few people even talking. Compared with ten days ago, the lively scene was greatly reduced; while in the hot money main group, everyone's discussions were still It's hot, but most of them are complaints, complaining that the recent market is difficult to do, and there is no sustainability at all.
After Shanghai Steel Union opened up the nine-board space in the market.
In the entire market, in the past ten days, not only has no other stock been able to break through to this height, but the number of stocks that can achieve continuous trading is also getting smaller and smaller.
In recent days, the Shanghai Stock Index has fallen again for four consecutive days.
Even the natural daily limit of two consecutive boards has become very scarce. Often the market is blocked by one board, and funds on the market flee on a large scale the next day.
Even after the daily limit.
On the second day, many people directly opened the market at a sharply lower level in order to rush for the money.
"Hey, the total turnover of the two cities has fallen again today. This is the fifth consecutive trading day of decline, right? It feels like if it continues to fall, it will return to the second half of last year and the extreme liquidity in January and February today. Due to scarcity, the two cities’ transaction volume is less than RMB 30 billion in dark days.”
Some people in Su Yu's main hot money group complained helplessly.
"In April and May, the market rose continuously, and the ChiNext Index even reached the highest level of 1,100 points. The trading volume of the two cities also continued to rise month-on-month. I originally thought that after such a long period of downturn, the market should have bottomed out and reversed, but it didn't. Come to think of it... a sap in June will really bring us back to square one."
"Today is June 21st. Since June, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has only been in the red for three trading days. Can you believe it? And among these three days of red trading, there was one day where the increase was 0.13%. It's simply..."
"I finally made a little profit from the Shanghai Steel Union following Brother Su, but now I have lost all of it."
"This month is really difficult..."
"The market's drop is a bit unreasonable. There doesn't seem to be anything particularly negative in the market. As a result, it's not even the end of the month yet. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has fallen by more than 10% since the beginning of the month. This is an index, and it's still at a low level of around 2,200. , it’s unimaginable that it could drop so much in half a month.”
"The GEM index has not fallen much this month, but it has outperformed the Shanghai Index."
"Judging from the trend of the entire GEM, it is not that bad, but the continuous profit-making effect of the entire market is too poor. I feel that using the GEM to create emotional premiums is completely inappropriate in the current market."
"Short-term emotional investment is not good, and trend investment is even less good!"
"Looking at the market trends in recent times, the worst-hit stocks are stocks with large institutional holdings. Even the medicine for crossing bulls and bears is no longer effective."
“It feels like the institution has entered a prisoner’s dilemma of passive selling, right?”
"There seems to be this sign..."
"If the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index continues to fall by another 10%, I am afraid that most institutions on the market will be forced to liquidate."
"If it falls by another 10%, it will break a four-year low! Is it possible that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will hit the low of 2008? Isn't it?"
"Who knows? Judging from the current trend, it is indeed bottomless!"
"In fact, the market valuation is already very low, even lower than the worst period in 2008. Looking at the banking sector, the average price-to-earnings ratio has dropped to around 4.5. This was not true before, could you believe it?"
"Haha... Yes, even if I don't do bank stocks, this price-to-earnings ratio is really unprecedented."
"One or two years ago, those institutions that were calling this sector a market valuation depression have suffered losses to the point that they have to be liquidated. So... for bank stocks, looking at the price-to-earnings ratio is of no use, right?"
"The price-to-book ratio is also miserable. It has broken through one after another, and the lowest one has dropped to 0.6."
"But recently, the big financial sector, led by banks, has suffered the most."
“Since 2008, amid the central bank’s successive releases of water, banks’ off-balance sheet assets have expanded seriously, and both their price-to-earnings ratios and price-to-book ratios have been artificially high. We also have to look at their provision ratios and bad debt ratios, otherwise... I think no matter how low the price-to-earnings ratio or price-to-book ratio is, it doesn’t make any sense.”
"Brother Su hasn't appeared recently either. What's going on?"
"I heard that Brother Su has opened a private equity fund. He should be busy with the company, right? But the market is really bad recently. Even if Brother Su takes action, there is no chance of winning, right?"
Su Yu watched the discussion in the group in silence.
I know that at this time in the market, investment sentiment has already reached freezing point.
However, due to the market shortage of money in the domestic financial industry, major institutions have sold off securities assets to withdraw capital flows, which has also caused more institutions to passively reduce their positions due to the decline in net worth, suppressing the market rebound in a chain reaction.
But Su Yu knew...
Once this kind of continuously suppressed emotion finds an outlet, it will inevitably burst out with a vengeance.
It's like a spring being pressed to its extreme.
When the force exerted on the spring is suddenly relaxed, the spring is bound to rebound quickly.
In the atmosphere of money shortage in the entire market, and in the growing fear of everyone, the power of the central bank to rescue the market is the outlet for that emotion.
"Mr. Su..."
While Su Yu was contemplating his review, Li Meng walked into his office and said, "The president of the Wealth Center Branch of Huashan Bank, that is, President Zhou, called me. He hopes to invite you to have dinner with him in the evening. I heard what he meant. , I hope that the raised custody funds of our 'Yuhang No. 1', which have not yet been transferred to the securities account, can not be transferred to the brokerage account first, so that they can stay in their branch for a few days. This matter... what do you think?"
The other party's call came less than half an hour after Su Yu transferred part of the fund custody funds to Huashang Securities' capital trading account.
Grain grass
So, its purpose...
Li Meng thought it was quite clear.
"President Zhou?" Su Yu was stunned for a moment, then came to his senses, "This is the branch where our fund funds are held, right?"
"Yes!" Li Meng nodded.
Su Yu chuckled and said: "I didn't expect that even Huashang Bank started to tighten the cash flow of large accounts in the bank, and tried to prevent large accounts from withdrawing money or transferring funds out. It seems... the money shortage in the market has reached a serious level. It’s so bad, this weekend…something big is expected to happen!”
Even giant banks like China Commercial Bank have begun to tighten cash liquidity within the bank.
As you can imagine...
Many local commercial banks must have panicked.
"Then... do you want to meet?" Li Meng asked, "If you don't want to meet, I will push it away."
Su Yu thought for a while and said: "In the future, we should have many opportunities to deal with the banking system. The Wealth Center Branch of China Merchants Bank can be regarded as a core branch. The future of President Zhou is still very bright. We still have to meet... …Let’s see what he has to say!”
"Okay, then I'll inform President Zhou."
Li Meng responded and then exited the office.
Later, at 6 p.m., after getting off work, Su Yu and Li Meng arrived at the private room of the hotel invited by President Zhou.
Except for Governor Zhou.
Several other core managers from the Wealth Center Branch of China Commercial Bank were also present.
It can be said to be a very high invitation standard.
"Mr. Su... you are well." President Zhou stood up in a hurry and reached out to shake Su Yu's hand. "I really didn't have time to leave yesterday and couldn't come to the company to support him in person, so I can only invite Mr. Su alone today. I hope that I can Save some of the regret of not being there yesterday.”
Of course, having said that…
In fact, it was just that he was not optimistic about and did not pay attention to the newly opened private equity company 'Yuhang Investment' before.
I feel that in the current investment environment, the other party does not raise funds publicly, and its new fund size can exceed 20 million, which will be very popular.
And the incremental business of 20 million... is not worthy of the president's personal support.
So, he didn't go then.
Unexpectedly... the final fundraising result reached 400 million.
The incremental business of 400 million yuan, although it is a fund custody business, is already considered very heavyweight for his branch.
Moreover, the timing happened to be at a time when ‘the entire market was inexplicably and extremely short of money’.
Then he would have to step forward to win over Su Yu.
And, in addition to this reason, there is also a more important reason.
That is, this afternoon, the branch leader issued a fatal order to him, requiring him to stick to the bank's capital stock and prohibit lending funds to other branches in the form of inter-bank lending.
This gave him an unusual smell.
It seems that the "money shortage" crisis in the entire market is beginning to get out of control and is on the verge of losing control.
Therefore, he immediately contacted Li Meng, trying to persuade Su Yu to allow the custody funds of the 'Yuhang No. 1' fund to stay in the branch for a few more days, giving him more room for maneuver and crisis response.
Although Chinese bankers have a great career, even if there is a run crisis on the entire banking system.
With the support of branches and the head office, each branch can survive no matter what.
But when it comes to individuals...
In other words, if the branch he runs has a risk control problem, even if he can survive the crisis in the end, his own future will be ruined.
Therefore, in order to prevent this risk from happening to yourself.
Even if there is only a hint, he will nip the risk in the cradle to ensure his own safety.
"President Zhou is very polite." Su Yu said with a smile, "Being able to eat President Zhou's meal today, I can already feel President Zhou's heart."
After saying that, Su Yu sat down with a smile.
Then, under the recommendation of Governor Zhou, he, Li Meng, and everyone else said hello to each other.
Immediately afterwards, among the gossips and pleasantries, the wine passed three rounds and the dishes passed five flavors.
At this time, President Zhou brought the topic back to the main thread and said: "Recently, our branch has been under a bit of financial pressure. The branch and the head office have tight control, so we hope that Mr. Su can make the funds of the 'Yuhang No. 1' fund available." Keep it in our bank’s custody account for a few more days.”
"In this way... we can have more balance to meet the expenses of other businesses."
"Of course, during the period when the funds are retained, our bank can pay interest on the retained funds according to the overnight repurchase rate disclosed in the market."
"No problem." Su Yu said with a smile, "The market is not open on Saturdays and Sundays anyway."
"But..." Su Yu paused and then said, "During the opening of the market, what I can promise President Zhou is that we can transfer funds in line with the company's fund position building progress, instead of making a one-time transfer. In this way The balance of funds retained in your bank should be buffered, what do you think?"
President Zhou was silent for a moment.
Thinking that ‘Yuhang Investment’ is a private equity investment company after all.
It is certainly unrealistic to ask the other party to keep all funds in the branch and maintain a long-term short position. After all, this is obviously contrary to the other party's company's business strategy and the perspective of fund investors.
So after thinking for a while, he couldn't help but nodded and said: "Yeah... that's okay."
"However, I still hope that Mr. Su can keep at least 100 million in funds within a week and keep it in my bank. Do you think... is that okay?"
After the other party made concessions, this was his lowest demand.
"Okay!" Su Yu said, "President Zhou has spoken personally. If I don't agree to these conditions, then I will not give President Zhou face."
"Ha ha……"
Mr. Zhou laughed and was very happy to see Su Yu agree: "Then I owe Mr. Su a favor. Mr. Su can use my old Zhou's place in the future, so please feel free to ask."
"With Governor Zhou's words, I will make a lot of money."
Su Yu chuckled and said, "President Zhou is so pretentious that one favor is worth at least a thousand pieces of gold!"
In his plan, when he later uses leverage to leverage the land in Ancai Paper's hands, he will definitely need the support of bank loans.
So, in his opinion...
At this time, taking advantage of the influence of the "market money shortage", you will definitely not suffer a loss if you establish some connections and accumulate some favors in the banking system.
What's more, before the market opportunity for building a position is revealed.
There is nothing wrong with earning a little interest money from within the bank.
After all, no matter how serious the market money shortage crisis is, can the central bank still ignore it? Let the risk of the entire system continue to spread like this?
Therefore, no matter what he chooses, there is a financial risk.
There is no need to worry at all.
"Where, where..."
President Zhou didn't expect Su Yu to be so easy to talk to and so polite. For a while, he had a lot of goodwill and trust in him. He smiled and said: "President Su is a young hero, a future star in the business world. To be honest... The fundraising scale of the 'Yuhang No. 1' fund is very surprising. Currently, there are not many pure stock investment funds with a scale of more than 400 million in our bank's internal sales."
"President Zhou is so complimentary." Su Yu said, "We at 'Yuhang Investment' have just started, and there is still a long way to go in the future. President Zhou will praise me too highly. I'm afraid I haven't climbed to the high point you mentioned. , it fell down, it wouldn’t look good.”
"Haha, Mr. Su is joking." President Zhou said, "I have heard about your recent investment in the stock market, and I really admire you."
The two of them just talked about complimenting each other...
It wasn't until nine o'clock in the evening that everyone except Li Meng drank a lot of wine and had fun with each other before they dispersed.
After returning home, Su Yu felt a little dizzy after drinking, so he briefly exchanged a few words with Li Meng, then washed up and went to bed early.
Then, when he woke up the next day, he was faced with a dozen missed calls on his phone.
Only then did he discover...
According to the information push, overnight, the money shortage crisis in the domestic financial system completely exploded. The overnight repurchase rate and interbank interest rate between banks soared from yesterday's average exchange rate of around 4.5% to more than 15%.
