Chapter 121: Bear market thinking

"Brother Su's gesture today is really arrogant, but... I like it!"

When Su Yu rarely spoke up for discussion in the group, some group members greatly praised: "In the future, the market may have to give the Su brothers a separate concept section, called the 'Fortune Road' investment concept section."

"It's the concept section of 'Yuhang Investment', right?" Someone answered.

"Don't say it yet, it's totally fine!"

"Look at the popularity of the stocks held by the Su brothers after the Dragon and Tiger List data came out. Shanghai Steel Union, Huaqingbao, Fenda Technology, Wangsu Technology, Oriental Fortune, LeTV... a lot of them have become market discussions. The most popular concept stocks, especially the discussion heat of Shanghai Steel Union, directly surpassed the news heat of the central bank’s 500 billion market open operation, and directly topped the list of hot stocks in the two cities.”

"Shanghai Steel Union is the first stock in the two cities to reverse yesterday's daily limit, and coupled with the Su brothers' seat bonus, it should be normal for it to be so popular, right?"

"Looking at the popularity, the Shanghai Steel Federation will not have a straight line tomorrow, right?"

"I hope not. Shanghai Steel Union has also accumulated a lot of profit taking today. If the straight board opens tomorrow and profit taking accumulates further, I'm afraid it won't be able to go far."

"Brother Su, what is LeTV's logic?"

"I can still understand other stocks, such as LeTV... The development of film and television media has indeed entered the fast lane, but in the field of online video, the realization of traffic has always been a mystery. No one knows how the future will go. I don’t know how to change the model to make profits.”

"It should be a smart TV, right? They are following the same route and logic as Fenda Technology."

"Damn it, I really forgot about this. I have been thinking in the direction of online video and film and television media. I didn't consider that Boss Jia has now started to build an ecosystem and enter the smart TV field."

"LeTV has a lot of room for imagination, and it has the genes of a platform and ecological company!"

"For the stocks that Brother Su can take a fancy to, even if they don't understand the logic temporarily, they will definitely not be any worse."

"Are you a little blind?"

"Hehe... don't mention it. From now on, I will definitely follow Brother Fengsu and become a fan of Brother Su. After all, I find that I am speculating, and in the end I might as well make money by following Brother Fengsu."

"Damn it, that's really what you said."

"Hey, I'm also afraid of being short-changed this month. I followed Brother Su to buy the bottom today. It's the first time I've eaten meat this month. It's really miserable."

"It's a pity that Brother Su didn't participate in the private placement two days ago."

"I'm finally comfortable with money. Now I can't see any money."

"Of course he feels comfortable having Brother Su help him make money. I also imagine Mr. Qian is the same. By the way, when will Brother Su's next private equity fund be opened!"

During the discussion, everyone @Su Yu wanted to know when his next fund would be launched.

Before the plunge in the past two days, everyone actually had no persistent ideas about subscribing for the private equity products raised and issued by Su Yu. But at this moment... when everyone saw the cruelty of the market and saw Su Yu's show, everyone's scalp went numb. After the operation, apart from admiration, this thought in my heart became stronger and stronger.

Of course, this kind of psychological change...

This is also because everyone previously believed that there was not a big gap between their own trading level and cognitive level with Su Yu.

But now, after the brutal blow from the market and Su Yu's miraculous judgment and operation, everyone has realized the gap between themselves and the other party, and this mentality has naturally changed.

"The company has no idea of ​​issuing a new fund before the first product doubles." Su Yu responded uniformly to everyone's inquiries, "Of course, I am grateful for everyone's trust in me, and at the same time, in view of everyone's good intentions, If the company has any ideas for releasing new products, I will definitely tell you as soon as possible."

After saying that, Su Yu continued to discuss and heatedly discuss among the people.

Then he left the group chat.

Then, he took a look at the messages in the classmate group, picked out a few private messages to reply to from classmates he had good relationships with before, and then looked away from the computer screen.

It was almost six o'clock in the afternoon.

Su Yu first checked Wang Can's closing review records, pointed out some directions and points for attention, then held a short company meeting and got off work.

Back home, had dinner, and finished washing up.

Su Yu turned on the computer again, looked at the trend of the external market, then straightened his thoughts, and pondered for a while which line the market should mainly follow before going to sleep.

The next day, Wednesday, June 26th.

When he arrived at the company, it was already past 9 o'clock.

The external market trend was good last night. The three major U.S. stock indexes all closed higher. There was no negative news in the international market. After a large-scale release of water by the central bank in China, the interbank lending rate and overnight repurchase rate also returned to normal. , from the highest abnormal level of more than 30%, it has returned to about 3%, and the money shortage crisis has been completely lifted; therefore, the overall investment sentiment of the market was very enthusiastic before the market opened, and it was countless times stronger than yesterday.

"It's really a combination of ice and fire!"

After getting ready for the opening of the market, Li Meng looked at the topic discussions and various hot topics in major online trading forums and communities, and said with emotion: "Compared with yesterday, it seems like a world away."

When Su Yu heard this, he laughed and said: "Faced with the uncertain market, all investors, including hot money and institutions, are actually fish."

"Fish?" Li Meng wondered, not knowing why.

"Yeah." Su Yu nodded and continued with a smile, "Of course it's a fish, because fish only have 5 seconds of memory."

Li Meng thought about it and felt that there was some truth in it. He couldn't help but smile and said: "It's true, as long as there is a profit-making effect, everyone will naturally forget about the previous plunge."

"Yes." Su Yu said, "In secondary market transactions, there is no belief that can't be changed by one big positive line. If not, then two big positive lines, three big positive lines... When the market's profit-making effect continues to accumulate , when the market continues to gather, no matter how stubborn the short seller is, he will not be able to help but enter the market and become a new long seller.”

"This is the charm of the market!" Li Meng replied.

Su Yu was silent for a moment and responded: "It's not only its charm, but also its cruelty. The greed and fear of human nature are always vividly displayed in the continuous interpretation of K-line."

"So... you can't chase the K-line." Li Meng said thoughtfully, "You have to look at the emotions through the K-line and see the original fundamentals of the market."

"That's right." Su Yu nodded, "Whether it's individual stocks or the market, as long as the underlying macro fundamentals are good, then the impact of panic will be temporary, and...if we can see clearly The general direction and market panic will be the source of excess profits. After all, under the influence of emotions, market valuations will also lose their rationality, and the rise will be too high, and the fall will be too low."

While the two were communicating, 9:15 arrived and the collective bidding in the two cities began.

Su Yu focused his attention on the market and saw that thanks to the strong market investment sentiment, more than 90% of the stocks had opened higher, and the willingness of various parties to raise funds was not small.

As for his self-selected stock pool and core holdings.

Tianyu Information opened about 3% higher, and stocks such as Internet Speed ​​Technology, Fenda Technology, Flush, Oriental Fortune, and LeTV also opened higher by about the same amount as Tianyu Information.

The only exceptions are Huaqingbao and Shanghai Steel Union, the two most popular stocks in the market.

Hua Qingbao opened nearly 7 points higher, with the stock price at 33.09 yuan, recovering a large amount of lost ground in the early stage; Shanghai Steel Union opened directly at the daily limit, with the stock price at 16.58 yuan, and the bidding limit was closed. The initial trading volume exceeded 5,000 lots.

“The call auction sentiment in the market is very strong!”

Li Meng was very excited when he saw that more than 90% of the stocks in the two cities opened higher: "It seems that the index is going to jump upward today. Will there be an island-shaped reversal?"

"It's impossible!" Su Yu said, "You have to eat the food one bite at a time, and the benefits have to be digested bit by bit. The transition between the bear and the bull stages is a subtle process, and it is far less rapid than the transition between the bull and the bear. After all, everything is possible. , It is always a hundred times more difficult to establish than to destroy. Although market confidence has been restored after yesterday’s violent rebound, it is still a stock game after all, and it is not easy for large-scale external investors to enter the market.”

"What's more, after the central bank's liquidity is released, funds must be fed back to the stock market."

"It will take at least a month, several months, or even more than half a year to see real results."

"besides……"

"Yesterday, the amplitude of many stocks was more than 10%."

"That is to say, the many funds that bought the bottom yesterday have already made a lot of profits at this moment. For many people, there is a very big demand to take profits."

"In addition, more than 95% of investors in the current market still have a bear market mentality."

"If you think you can make a little money, you must not be greedy, otherwise you will continue to be trapped. After all, this set of operations has been continuously performed in the past four or five years. As long as investors are still active in the market, this set of operating methods should have been deeply rooted in It’s in their minds.”

"So, in this situation, the vast majority of active investors are thinking in a bear market."

"It is simply unrealistic for the index to reverse quickly and rise continuously."

"Then you mean..." Li Meng paused and said, "Today's index is likely to open high and go low, and there is no obvious market trend?"

Su Yu nodded and said, "This is inevitable."

As he said that, Su Yu looked at the market again and saw that the daily limit of Shanghai Steel Union was increasing, while Hua Qingbao, Tianyu Information, Fenda Technology, Internet Speed ​​Technology... many stocks were rising slowly. Pulling back, the power of selling is clearly increasing as time goes on.

Immediately afterwards, at 9:20, the two cities entered the real collective bidding stage where orders cannot be canceled.

Shanghai Steel Union still sealed the daily limit. Although the daily limit orders were slightly lifted, the number of orders remained above 8,000, and the strength remained. At this time, Hua Qingbao’s increase had dropped to about 4%, with more than 2,000 call auction orders. hands, and selling remains dominant.

At 9:21, Shanghai Steel Union's daily limit exceeded 10,000 lots, and Hua Qingbao's gains shrank to only 3.5%.

At 9:22, the number of stocks that opened higher in the two cities has changed to about 75%. Huaqingbao's increase has shrunk to 3%. Tianyu Information, Fenda Technology, Wangsu Technology... and other stocks have seen their gains shrink. When it reaches less than 2%, the premium is significantly reduced compared to before 9:20.

At 9:23, the number of stocks that opened higher in the two cities further fell to about 68%. Hua Qingbao’s increase was just below 3%. The Shanghai Steel Union’s daily limit and closed orders declined to around 8,700 lots. Within one minute, new More than 2,000 selling orders were placed.

At 9:24, the number of stocks that opened higher in the two cities fell again to around 63%. The Shanghai Steel Union's daily limit and closed orders continued to decline to 7,600 lots, and the daily limit and sell orders surged to about 5,200 lots.

The last 30 seconds before the call auction ends.

The overall selling orders in the two cities have further increased, and the funds for taking profits have increased with the times on individual stocks that have opened higher.

Finally, when 9:25 arrived, the call auction in the two cities ended, and the number of stocks that opened higher had fallen back to around 58% of the overall stocks in the two cities. The Shanghai designated price was at 2017.47, which was only 0.23% higher. The GEM designated price At 1012.76 points, it opened 0.64% higher, still stronger than the Shanghai Composite Index.

Among them, although the Shanghai Steel Union closed the daily limit, it had dropped sharply to around 1,900 lots at the last moment, and the daily limit and selling orders exceeded 10,000 lots, but it still maintained a straight-line opening pattern; Huaqingbao finally opened higher by 2.1 %, the stock price was fixed at 31.58 yuan; Tianyu Information opened higher by 1.34%, Internet Speed ​​Technology opened higher by 1.23%, Fenda Technology opened higher by 1.14%...

"This... this is lower than expected!"

Seeing such opening results, Li Meng was a little surprised and said with emotion: "It seems that the Shanghai Stock Index has to test 2,000 points in today's trading?"

Su Yu nodded and said, "Tread more firmly and it should be more stable."

"The funds on the market are too anxious." Li Meng took an overall look at some popular stocks that had a sharp amplitude and rebounded a lot yesterday, and frowned, "As you said, the market thinking has been stuck in a bear market mentality. If there is no change, even if the market sentiment is good, it will be really difficult to get out of the continuous surge."

"Take your time!" Su Yu replied, "If we want the majority of investors in the market to change their bear market mentality, we must create a sustained money-making effect so that investors feel that short-term speculation is not as good as long-term holdings to make money. However... when the thinking of the majority of investors in the market begins to change, the bull market has actually gone a long way."

"Yeah!" Li Meng responded.

Seeing that the time had passed 9:30, he stopped talking and focused his attention on the rapidly changing market tables of the two cities.

Although the fund's position building has been initially completed.

But the intraday trading plan for the remaining 20% ​​of the overall position has just begun.

As the formal trading began, Su Yu's eyes, after a brief wandering, quickly landed on the market's core stock, Shanghai Steel Union.

I saw that this stock quickly exploded in volume the moment the official trading started.

Several orders of 1,000 lots poured out in succession, breaking the few daily limit orders. When the straight-line pattern broke, the stock price fell rapidly. In one minute, it dropped nearly 4 points, reaching 6.43. % increase, while the turnover exceeded 25 million, and trading was extremely active.

Su Yu saw Shanghai Steel Union break the market, and saw its stock price plummet and continue to explode.

His whole body didn't move at all.

Then, when the vast majority of investors in the entire market saw that the market was far weaker than they expected, many investors who were still profitable began to sell.

And in this case.

The Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and ChiNext Index also fell one after another.

And when the time advanced to 9:42, the Shanghai Stock Index could not hold on above 2000 points for more than ten minutes, and then fell below 2000 points again. As a result, the originally stable and high market investment sentiment quickly receded like the tide, and the crisis of the plunge reappeared. !