Chapter 15 Before the Plunge
$1515, $1511, $1509…
In less than fifteen minutes, gold fell by more than $25, plummeting 250 points, breaking through numerous short-term stop-loss orders set near the 1521 price.
Within these fifteen minutes, Su Yu's position profits skyrocketed.
A total of 1.6 positions were held, with a profit of more than 8,000 US dollars. The total account funds reached more than 8,800 US dollars, and the available margin also increased to more than 7,400 US dollars.
Su Yu stared at the continued plummeting trend of gold, holding the mouse in his right hand, and did not increase his position to kill the fall for the time being.
If the bullish defense line of $1,500 is not broken, the price of gold will definitely continue to rise.
He is waiting for the market bulls who are still holding on to luck at this moment to use their last funds to hunt for the bottom and hit a secondary high before gold officially breaks through $1,500.
And that secondary high point is his heavy entry position.
The distance between 1,521 and 1,500 US dollars has accumulated too much bullish power. Even if the market is hit by a strong negative blow and the shorts are full of momentum, it will be difficult to directly penetrate it in one go.
so……
After plunging more than 250 points in one breath, it should be inevitable for gold to rebound briefly to absorb profits from ultra-short-term investors to cover, and for lucky long-term investors to buy the bottom.
Sure enough, while Su Yu was waiting patiently.
After gold hit its lowest price of 1508.75, it rebounded at 7:33.
"Haha, hold on. Under the negative attack, gold once again supported the price of 1,500 US dollars." Seeing that gold rebounded rapidly after the negative plunge, many bullish posts appeared on various trading forums that Su Yu followed. It began to appear, "Looking at the situation...it seems to be the ultimate departure!"
"There is no doubt that it is a complete deviation."
"Indeed, today's low and last Thursday's low have just formed a divergence trend between the daily line and the bottom."
"Two bad times failed to allow gold prices to break through $1,500. This is enough to prove the strong support here, right? Be optimistic about gold...it will inevitably have a V-shaped reversal today."
"What a God-given bargain hunting opportunity!"
“It’s a big move, and then it declines, and it’s all gone. Since the short sellers failed to break through the support of $1,500 despite the negative situation, it will be impossible to break through again in the future.”
"The price of gold has corrected from US$1,920 on September 6, 2011 to now. It has been corrected for long enough, and it is almost time to resume its upward trend."
"Do more, do more..."
“With global inflation currently at high levels, it is most reassuring to be long gold.”
"Yes, gold has been bullish for more than ten years since 2001. Even Goldman Sachs said it will see $2,500 in the next year. There is no reason not to buy the bottom at this time."
Among the many comments, the majority are still bullish and long-doing.
After all, after more than ten years of gold bull market, being long and bullish on gold has almost become ingrained in the minds of most investors.
Even at this moment, the price of gold is only a hair away from falling below the bull-bear line of $1,500.
Everyone does not think that gold will break through $1,500 and fall into a tragic bear market.
With the influx of bulls copying the market and profit-covering by ultra-short-term short-sellers, in the final period of the European market, the price of gold continued to rise after the negative blow, quickly approaching the previous low of $1,521.
And after entering the US market...
The rebound in gold prices has begun to stagnate again as the power of profit-covering efforts by ultra-short-term short sellers has once again failed.
Su Yu saw that the price of gold was around 1518 US dollars. It pulsed upward several times, but failed to get out of the continuous upward trend. Knowing that the secondary rebound high point he was waiting for had arrived, he held the mouse tightly and read this in one breath. Position, placed 2 gold short positions.
Compare the total funds in his account at this moment, and the amount of available margin.
A short gold position of 2 standard lots is already considered a heavy position.
After Su Yu completed the order, the price of gold continued to fluctuate briefly around $1,518 before beginning to fall again under the pressure of short sellers.
After digesting the ultra-short-term profit taking during the European market's negative plunge.
The downward trend of gold has become more sharp than the previous rebound trend. In more than half an hour, it is once again approaching the negative plunge low of $1508.75.
Su Yu stared at gold's smoothly falling time-sharing line and made no further moves.
He is waiting...
When new negative news appears in the market tonight, and after gold has exhausted all the bargain-hunting power of the bulls, it will eventually break through the $1,500 mark in a flash crash, burying all the bulls in the market.
The Sword of Damocles that the Central Bank of Cyprus is about to sell off its gold reserves on a large scale is hanging over the market.
He does not believe that Wall Street hedge funds, Goldman Sachs, Morgan and other large investment banks will not take any action even though they know that the fundamentals of gold have turned completely negative.
Currently, the gold long positions of the world's largest hedge funds are still huge.
And this is the reason why the market will inevitably plummet next...
Because the large major bull institutions on the market cannot remain indifferent after realizing that the market is not good, they will inevitably reduce their positions significantly and reduce the risk of their positions.
The concentrated reduction and covering of positions by these large institutions is the biggest weapon to kill the falling market.
While Su Yu was waiting, at 10:17 p.m., the price of gold hit $1,508 and once again found short-term support.
At this time, the only remaining bulls in the market are rushing in here again, hoping that gold can bottom out and rebound violently like it did last week.
Also at this time...
Su Yu, who was waiting patiently, suddenly received an application on the Penguin account from the account manager of the East China area of the foreign exchange trading company where he opened an account, inviting him to join the group.
Su Yu checked it and agreed.
After all, his previous job was no different from that of the other party. Generally, he would agree to such an invitation to join a group if it did not involve his own interests.
Of course, after joining the group, he generally doesn't like to talk unless driven by work tasks.
"The price of gold fluctuated greatly tonight. I wonder if it can hold on to US$1,500?" After Su Yu entered the group, he found that everyone's topic was still on gold, so he couldn't help but read on.
"The bottom that the market has spent two years building should still have enough support."
"Cyprus is a small country. How much impact can its central bank's selling of excess gold reserves have on the market? I don't think there is any need to be afraid."
"Anyway, I bought the bottom and placed a 1.5-lot long gold order at the price of $1,508.45."
"Last Thursday, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting was scary enough, wasn't it? At that time, the bearish sentiment in the entire market was at an all-time high, but gold made a shocking reversal in the second half of the night. I think the price of gold today is likely to be the same. , the winning rate of going long at this position should be much greater than going short.”
"Yes, even if the crisis of the Central Bank of Cyprus is a negative, gold has dropped from above 1,530 US dollars to 1,508 US dollars. I think the reaction should have been completed. The follow-up should be the market recovery after the negative news has landed. Going long... there is no problem at all. "
"There is nothing wrong with going long, but none of you have touched on the key point." A person with the ID name "Golden Touch" said, "The reason why gold has strong support here and will not fall below it is It is because this price is the cost range for Goldman Sachs, Morgan, and many large hedge funds around the world to repeatedly increase their long positions. It is also the cost range for gold positions held by major central banks around the world. Moreover, this is the real bull-bear line for gold. The current global The economic situation is still not optimistic, inflation is still rising, and the gold bull market will definitely continue."
“So, boldly add to your position and buy the dip.”
"If you miss this opportunity, I'm afraid you won't see gold at this price again in the next year."
"Since Mr. Huang is strongly bullish and calls for bargain hunting, then gold will definitely not fall below this price again. I listen to Mr. Huang and add 2 more gold long positions."
"I will also continue to increase my long position in gold by 0.3 lots."
Su Yu saw the ID named "Golden Midas Hand" and what everyone called it in the subsequent discussion.
I always feel that this person is somewhat familiar, but I can't remember it for a while.
"Teacher Huang's prediction on the gold market last Thursday was completely correct. Unfortunately, I hesitated at that time and didn't have time to increase my position." While Su Yu was thinking, an ID named 'Investment Ruhai' in the group continued. , "Since this is a rare opportunity, I took a heavy position and entered the market with 25 lots of gold at $1,508. I really made a big profit. I will definitely treat Mr. Huang to dinner another day."
When Su Yu saw the number 25, he knew it was a big deal, and was a little surprised.
Then, he took a closer look at the public information of this person's account, and found out that this group friend of "Invest like the Sea" was actually an investment client of the sales department that he was responsible for before.
This man's surname is Sun. He is the owner of a construction company in Yuhang and has a lot of assets.
At that time, Su Yu put a lot of effort into getting this person to open an account and invest in the sales department, but unfortunately... Later, the other person felt that the stock market was really sluggish, he couldn't make money, and it wasn't exciting enough, so he stopped trading and withdrew from his client. List.
Su Yu never expected that the other party would turn to the foreign exchange market after withdrawing from the stock market.
I never expected that I would meet in this group.
"You're welcome, friend." As Su Yu pondered, the ID of the 'Golden Midas Touch' replied, "I'm just telling you my understanding of the market so that I can follow it. Who can tell me what the real market trend will be like? I can’t say for sure, if my friend wants to operate based on my opinion, he can’t blame me if he loses.”
After Su Yu saw that the other party was vowing to be bullish on gold, he immediately began to distance himself from responsibility.
I felt somewhat contemptuous in my heart.
Seeing this, the ID of "Investment Like the Sea" immediately replied: "What I agree with is Teacher Huang's view and logic. When it comes to investing... once you enter the market, you will naturally be responsible for your profits and losses."
While talking, he posted a screenshot of his position in the group.
I saw that the account totaling 130,000 US dollars already held 32 long gold positions, and 25 of them were obviously newly added.
See the foreign exchange investment account with this amount of funds.
In the group of more than 800 people, many retail investors online exclaimed "big boss".
Su Yu raised his eyebrows, foreboding that the other party's hundreds of thousands of dollars, nearly a million dollars, without a stop loss, would most likely be lost overnight in the subsequent plunge of gold.
The other party was his former client, and he was thinking...
Faced with the upcoming risk of huge losses, does he need to remind the other party?
After thinking about it carefully for a while, Su Yu felt that it was still necessary to remind him that no matter whether the other party listened or not, at least after the trend of gold plummeting, he was able to make this kind of connections.
As long as he wants to pursue the path of private equity funds in the future, it is necessary to make friends with high-quality clients with tens of millions of assets.
Thinking about this...
Su Yu opened the other party's temporary chat box, revealed his identity, and expressed his opinion.
"You said the gold price is at 1,500 US dollars and it can't be sustained at all?" Boss Sun asked in surprise after reading the message sent by Su Yu.
"Can't hold on!" Su Yu replied, "The target price slogans of major international investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan are not worthy of belief. The global economy and the monetary policies of central banks of various countries are rapidly changing. In the market, bulls have been consumed by the ten-year golden bull market. After all their efforts to take over the market, when the market’s macro fundamentals changed, hedge funds holding large-scale long gold positions quickly reduced their positions, and the market was simply unable to support it.”
"In my opinion, gold's collapse is inevitable."
"But, didn't Teacher Huang say..." Boss Sun said hesitantly, "He is a well-known influencer on Huihai Finance Network, so he shouldn't talk nonsense, right?"
I heard Boss Sun mention the true identity of this ‘Golden Midas Hand’.
Only then did Su Yu remember everything about this person and replied: "In the golden ten years of the bull market, he always sang long regardless of whether the market was short-term or short-term. His logic and views were often wrong. Such a person... is popular What is created by the market, not his ability, is simply not worthy of trust.”
"Okay, Boss Sun, that's all I have to say. Whether you listen or not is up to you."
After saying that, Su Yu closed the temporary conversation window.
After chatting with Su Yu, Boss Sun stared at the trend of gold. His originally confident heart suddenly became uneasy. However, he did not listen to Su Yu's words and immediately reduce his position, or close long positions on a large scale. He opened the chat window of 'Teacher Huang' alone, erased Su Yu's ID name, sent a screenshot of Su Yu's important points to the other party, and asked the other party for his opinion again.
"Boss Sun, your friend's views are completely wrong." 'Teacher Huang' was very angry that Su Yu criticized his views as useless. "I have been following the trend of gold for seven years. Although today's I’m not sure about the short-term trend, but I’ve never missed a beat when it comes to judging the general direction of gold.”
"It's impossible for gold to end the bull market here, let alone what he said...continuous plummets."
After saying that, 'Teacher Huang' angrily closed the chat box with Boss Sun, and posted the screenshot that Boss Sun gave him to the group, openly mocking: "Some people think they understand the market. In fact, he is just a frog in the well of the market, and... he is still the kind of frog in the well who has no self-awareness and likes to deceive others!"
