Chapter 250 The Theory of the Fundamentals of the Bull Market

"Based on your age and this understanding, at least I can go further than you and me!" Tu Yuanhua chuckled.

Zhou Bangyao pondered for a while and said: "If we look at you and me twenty or thirty years ago, you are naturally better than us. But in the past twenty or thirty years, there have been many brilliant figures in the industry. In the end, how many people can continue to make progress and remain evergreen?"

"There are not many people." Tu Yuanhua chuckled, "But among the people I have met, this young man is the only one who has such a deep understanding of financial market transactions at his age. , what this young man just said is not something that someone who accidentally stood at the forefront of the market and was lucky enough to succeed can say. With his understanding, the future... will never happen. Too bad."

"such a pity……"

After a pause, Tu Yuanhua sighed again: "This young man was supposed to be a member of our 'Huaxin Securities' system, but I didn't expect that the sales department didn't retain him at all."

Tu Yuanhua has always been worried about letting such an outstanding talent go away from his sales department.

He thought...how great would it be if Su Yu was still in the Huaxin Securities Sales Department? He transferred him to the Yanjing headquarters with a transfer order. I believe that within a few years, the self-operated investment department he is in charge of will be completely renewed, and Su Yu will most likely become his most proud student in his life.

"Oh... I didn't expect him to come from your company, CEFC Securities!" Zhou Yaobang joked slightly, "It would be a pity not to retain such a talent."

"But your company has many chronic problems with internal talent training and career development."

"It's really time to change it."

"I remember that Yang Lingfeng of Tomorrow Capital also left CEFC Securities, right? His reputation and ability were not obvious before, but as soon as he left CEFC Securities, he was out of control. This is not the first time. "

"If you want to laugh, just laugh!" Tu Yuanhua coughed lightly and said, "Some serious and stubborn diseases can be easily corrected without just changing them. Haven't you been in Joaquin Company before? Some things... are caused by Do you, do I have the final say? Everything... still has to be arranged."

Self-operated institutions, public funds, and private equity companies are fundamentally different.

Not only are they subject to different levels of market supervision, but they are also subject to some interference in the direction of investment strategies, not to mention the direction of internal system reform.

Don't say that he is just the general manager of a market investment department of Huaxin Securities.

Even if he is the general manager of the entire CEFC Securities Group, it will be very difficult to change some of the company's existing systems, and there is no telling how many people's cake will be touched.

"That's true!" Zhou Bangyao nodded slightly and was about to say a few words to his friend.

At this time, other people in the industry who were familiar with the two people had gathered around and rushed to say hello to them. After all, the two of them were considered seniors in the industry regardless of their identity and status, and in the financial and fund circles, although they were ranked in terms of seniority It's not that serious, but there is still some necessary respect for seniors in the industry.

As more and more people...

After 6pm, the dinner begins.

"Mr. Su..." During the dinner, Xie Wanting sat at the same table as Su Yu, and she saw him smiling and said, "I heard Mr. Su's overall views on market transactions before, and I was very impressed, but I didn't know Mr. Su's views on the market. How do you view it at the macro level? Does the current market have the foundation for a bull market?"

"What do you think, Miss Xie?" Su Yu asked instead without taking the initiative to answer.

Xie Wanting pondered for a while and said: "According to the theory you mentioned before, that is, the market's money-making effect and incremental funds, I think the foundation for a bull market is already in place."

"The market trend this year is obviously better than that of the previous two or three years."

"Internet finance, mobile games, Shanghai Free Trade Zone, restructuring backdoor, smartphone industry chain...many concepts and market trends are being interpreted one after another."

"Especially at the end of June, after the market went through a deep adjustment."

"I feel that the market trend has become more relaxed, and the market's money-making effect, as well as the continued inflow of incremental funds, has become more intense than in the first half of the year."

"At the beginning of the year, the entire market had an average turnover of 20 to 30 billion, but now... it has an average turnover of 100 billion."

"In terms of volume and energy alone, it has expanded more than three times."

"This proves that incremental funds have been entering, and that the majority of investors in the market, under the continued profit-making effect, are fully recovering their confidence in the bull market."

"So I think……"

"Whether it is in terms of money-making effects, incremental funds, changes in the fundamentals of the market industry, or the attitude of regulators... Regardless of macro or micro, they all support the bullish market, and I also believe that the pace of the bull market will continue in this period. The time is very near."

"Just like the four seasons throughout the year, winter has passed and spring has quietly arrived."

"Miss Xie's last sentence is well said." Su Yu said with a smile, "I also think that in the current market, the winter has passed and the footsteps of spring have quietly arrived, but I don't think the market's confidence has been restored at this time, nor has it been. I don’t think the foundation for a bull market to break out is fully in place.”

"How do you say it?" Xie Wanting asked.

Su Yu replied with a smile: "As for market confidence, I just mentioned that in the direction of the main board, whether it is banking, securities, real estate, consumption, infrastructure and other industries, valuations and stock prices have not reversed. That is to say, the value has not returned. Both retail investors and many large domestic investment institutions hold a relatively pessimistic view in this regard."

"If you want the market to be bullish across the board, a sustained bull market will be born."

“The current size of the GEM alone cannot leverage the market.”

"The restoration of market confidence does not only refer to the restoration of confidence of retail investors and hot money. The confidence of institutions is also an important part of market confidence."

"My understanding..."

"Only these weighted core industries, values ​​and stock prices begin to feed back positively and can create a sustained money-making effect. The market is no longer a seesaw effect, and the turnover of the entire market can go further and reach 150 billion or even 200 billion. about."

"It can be said that market confidence has been completely restored."

"As for the basis for the outbreak of the bull market, in my opinion... there is at least one thing that is not satisfactory, and that is the further easing of credit."

"At the current stage, our domestic residents' savings conditions are no longer as good as they were in 2006 and 2007."

“If you don’t relax your credit, you will loosen your credit and increase your leverage…”

"Then, in market transactions where retail investors account for more than 80% of market investor shares, trading volume cannot be further expanded."

"In other words, even if market confidence recovers."

"With the size of the A-share market nearly double that of 2006 and 2007, there is not that much incremental capital to push up the market."

“So, I think there are no conditions for easing credit, easing credit, and increasing leverage.”

"The market will not have a comprehensive bull market, it will only be a partial bull market pattern."

"I agree that the spring of the market has quietly arrived, and the bull market is gradually approaching. However, the market's 'late spring cold' still exists. It is too early to turn to full optimism at this time."

"Easy credit, ease credit, increase leverage?" Xie Wanting murmured, thought for a while, and then said, "But the Federal Reserve has officially withdrawn from the QE program, and central banks around the world are also being forced to follow the Fed in the choice of monetary policy. , from easing to tightening strategy, under this global macro situation, is it possible for my country to implement the strategy of easing credit, easing credit, and increasing leverage?"

Su Yu nodded slightly and said: "Our country's economic internal growth capacity is still very strong. Although the level of residents' savings has dropped, the household leverage ratio is generally not high. In addition, our country's traditional thinking has always been biased towards consumption concepts. Conservatively, if the monetary strategy of 'widening credit, easing credit, and increasing leverage' is implemented, it will have a great stimulating effect on economic growth and consumption."

"In addition, our country's infrastructure construction and urbanization rate are not high, and the construction of financial markets is also in its infancy."

"Under the strategy of 'widening credit, easing credit, and increasing leverage', the additional funds will have a place to go and will not cause obvious inflationary consequences."

“And currently, the emerging economic sectors.”

"In other fields, such as the 'mobile Internet' and the 'smartphone industry chain', they have shown great potential, and new consumption growth markets have emerged, which can also absorb huge amounts of additional funds."

"So, in this situation..."

“I think the path of ‘widening credit, easing credit, and increasing leverage’ is a path that will most likely be followed.”

"Infrastructure, urbanization rate, financial construction, mobile Internet, and smartphone industry chain." Xie Wanting smiled, "If you expect the future, the central bank has really chosen the path you mentioned in terms of monetary policy. , these aspects are most likely the direction you are optimistic about, right?"

When Su Yu heard this, he glanced at Xie Wanting in great surprise.

He was just making inferences based on the actual development trajectory of the future market, but he didn't expect the other party to sum up the precise investment direction from his words in an instant.

And in fact...

In the future macro-background of "widening credit, easing credit, and increasing leverage", investments in these directions will indeed shine and become the direction of wealth accumulation.

"If the future market development and the direction of macro monetary policy really go in this direction..." Su Yu paused and said, "My investment choices will most likely be in these directions."

"Mr. Su's bull market prediction is very good!" During the discussion between Su Yu and Xie Wanting, Xu Zhongji couldn't help but praise, "Hearing these two opinions, I am already full of enthusiasm at this age. Go ahead, I can’t wait until the National Day is over and the market opens to rush to fill up my positions.”

"Mr. Xu is trying to get the upper hand!" Gao Tianhe from Anhe Fund laughed.

"Although my knowledge and understanding of macroeconomics is far inferior to Mr. Su's, I agree with the view that the market's cold winter has passed and spring is approaching quietly." Xu Xiang paused and then said, "Fear and greed are like twins. Sisters, the market has experienced several years of fear, and it’s time to enter the greed stage.”

"Indeed." Gao Tianhe responded, "Even based on historical rules, the bull market in 2000 was more than five years away from the bull markets in 2006 and 2007, and it was almost five years from the big bear market in 2008 to now. It’s been more than a year, and it’s time for the market to enter a reversal cycle.”

"This is the first time I've heard that someone actually used the past bull-bear time line to speculate on the market outlook." While Gao Tianhe was talking, a young man in his late twenties, holding a wine glass, suddenly appeared in Suzhou. Yu said next to their table, "Using the past bull-bear dividing time line to speculate on the future market, is this different from those retail investors in the market who stare at the K-line, speculate on the subsequent increase in stock prices, and judge the motivations of the main funds? This is also Isn’t it…too one-sided?”

"Who are you?" Gao Tianhe looked at each other and frowned.

He just said it casually, but he was scolded by the other party, and the other party even said that he was not good at it, which made him quite angry.

"Technical inferences are not useless." Su Yu retorted in response to the other party's arrogant words, "You also know that most retail investors in the market focus on the K-line and simply look at the market's historical performance. Make investment choices and judge the main fund targets.”

"In that case, let's look at the market's historical performance and K-line performance."

"It is equivalent to a general expectation among retail investors."

"As long as this kind of expectation exists, stirring up emotions can make some retail investors who believe in technology follow the trend in a big way, which will lead to the entry of incremental funds."

"And when the expectations of the majority of retail investors form a consensus at a certain point in time."

"It is not completely impossible for the continuous inflow of incremental funds to create a bull market."

"I think as an investor, if you ignore the past history of the market, you will not be able to grasp the future at all. If you cannot grasp the future, how can you make money in the market?"

In Su Yu's view, technical investment and fundamental investment are not incompatible.

In essence, the two are basically the same path, but they are presented in different ways.

"Who are you?" The young man squinted his eyes and did not answer Gao Tianhe's words. Instead, he stared at Su Yu seriously. "If the K-line and historical trends were useful, then the U.S. stock market would not be trending like this. Instead, believe in K-line, investors and institutions who think they can dig out and judge the future from the historical trends of the market, have been strangled in the US stock market in the past few years."

"As far as I know, in the current international market, there are no institutions that invest solely in technology."

"After more than a hundred years of development, the K-line system has long been reduced to a tool for recording market trends without any analytical significance."

"Hu Jiucheng, have you... said this?" Xie Wanting glared at the other party angrily, "What does it mean that technical analysis is useless? Great people also said that only by learning lessons from history can we create the future. No Do you think that history is useless here? Without history, where is the future?"

"I didn't say that history is useless, but that historical K-line analysis is useless." Hu Jiucheng emphasized and said with a genuine smile, "Wanting, why are you sitting at this table? I'm at the table of Uncle Tu and Uncle Zhou. , but I have reserved a special place for you."

"Can't I sit here anymore?" Xie Wanting said angrily, "I don't drink, so why should I go there?"

She came to see Su Yu, not to establish relationships. Why did she come here and sit with a group of elders who were related to her father, making her whole body uncomfortable.

Hu Jiucheng was choked by her words and paused for a while before saying, "That's not what I meant, I meant..."

"You don't need to say anything." Xie Wanting interrupted him, "You go about your business and don't worry about me. Of course... I don't need you to worry about it either."

Su Yu listened to their words and knew that they should be from similar family backgrounds and familiar with each other.

Moreover, the other party should have some thoughts about Xie Wanting.

"Who is this guy?" Hu Jiucheng couldn't help but ask, seeing that Xie Wanting was obviously close to Su Yu and felt uncomfortable.

"This doesn't seem to have anything to do with you, right?" Xie Wanting replied.

"I..." Hu Jiucheng was retorted one after another by Xie Wanting, his face looked a little ugly, and he was a little embarrassed to get off the stage.

"Mr. Su, if there is an opportunity in the future, I still hope that our two families can work together!" When Hu Jiucheng was unhappy and didn't know how to step down, behind him, a middle-aged man took the initiative to hold a wine glass. He approached Su Yu and offered a toast, "If you, 'Yuhang Investment', are able to carry out fund business as an agent for other companies in the future, you must inform me as soon as possible."

"Definitely, definitely!" Su Yu stood up with a smile, picked up the wine glass, and touched the other party slightly, "I should give you Mr. Wang's face no matter what."

After a glass of wine...

Mr. Wang's eyes fell on Xu Xiang, Gao Tianhe, Xu Zhongji and others again, and they all said hello and drank a drink with each other.

As for Hu Jiucheng on the side, whether Mr. Wang, Su Yu, or everyone else at the table.

No one paid him any attention.

After all, in everyone's eyes, this person is just a guy with a rich family background but no sense of social etiquette.

On the contrary, the young and beautiful Xie Wanting is elegant, sincere, and knowledgeable. Without explicitly introducing her family background and background, most people don't know that she is the apple of Xie Zhenhua's eye at Zhenhua Capital. However, it was liked by many people.

in other words……

Everyone present was basically a senior figure in the financial industry with a net worth of hundreds of millions.

Compared to himself, the so-called playboys who have little ability but rich family backgrounds are not favored by everyone, and such characters will not make everyone feel upset. On the contrary, Su Yu's ability to make money is extremely outstanding, no matter in theory The promising young people who outshine the vast majority of the people present in terms of their opinions and substantive achievements are the ones that everyone is vying to admire, like and pursue.

After a brief interlude, the dinner continued.

After a few glasses of wine, everyone started chatting with each other and became lively.

Although Su Yu still maintained a humble attitude amidst the admiration and adulation from everyone, he still felt a little arrogant due to the catalytic effect of alcohol.

Before his rebirth, even when his career reached its peak, it was nothing more than this.

But I didn’t expect that in just half a year, I would have achieved such an achievement.

And at the moment when he was drinking with everyone with a smile, neither humble nor arrogant, treating everyone equally regardless of the big or small in the industry, chatting and laughing happily.

Xie Wanting, who was paying attention to him, had a brighter smile on her face.

She felt that Su Yu had a special charm, and that charm... seemed to make her heart move.

Originally, in her expectation, a genius trader who could maneuver in the stock market, fight with sharpness, and use extremely violent trading techniques, should be the kind of arrogant and arrogant, or should be like Xu Xiang of "Mingzhou Jiefang South Road" A person who doesn't like to talk, doesn't drink, talks directly without turning around, and has a rather withdrawn personality, but he doesn't want to... After initial contact, the other party has a quite gentle personality, always giving people a feeling of spring breeze.

Of course, this was just her one-sided feeling about Su Yu.

After all, at this moment, she didn't know much about Su Yu, and she couldn't get a glimpse of his personality. She didn't know if there was a sharp side behind his gentle surface.

"Why... your face is so red? Have you drank?"

While Xie Wanting was in a daze, her teacher Zhou Guohua came to her at some point and said with concern: "I asked Xiao He to drive you back."

"Teacher, when did you come?" Xie Wanting withdrew her dazed gaze and asked.

"I've been here for a long time." Zhou Guohua said, "I saw you getting angry with the kid from the Hu family and talking and laughing with the guy named Su."

"Did you see it?" Xie Wanting blushed even more when she heard this, "What does the teacher think of this person?"

Zhou Guohua looked at Su Yu's back and said, "It's not bad. He's neither humble nor arrogant, nor arrogant. His theoretical level is very high and his insights are unique. After a few hours, few people in the industry really take him seriously." Rival, enemy, this person’s potential for future development is not small!”

"Well, I think so too." Xie Wanting said with a smile.

"But your father probably doesn't like people like this." Zhou Guohua emphasized, "The historical foundation is too poor, and the uncertainty in the financial market is too great. Billionaires and billionaires are often really There’s just a thin line between them.”

Xie Wanting snorted softly and said: "He didn't care about me at all, why should I insist on what he thinks? If he really thinks about it, I'm afraid I would have been married to Yanjing a long time ago... He singled out the so-called second-generation elites and asked that guy Hu Jiucheng to follow me all the time. Doesn’t he know that I don’t like Hu Jiucheng at all?”

"Uh..." Zhou Guohua coughed lightly.

It's also hard to tell the story of Xie Wanting's father's faults. After all, he could reach where he is today without the constant help and support of the other party.

Therefore, every time he encountered these things about Xie Wanting, he could only pretend to be deaf and dumb.

"Okay, I'll let Xiao He take you back!" Zhou Guohua paused and said, "It's October and the weather has turned cold a long time ago. You shouldn't come here wearing this."

Zhou Guohua has no children...

Therefore, although Xie Wanting called him "teacher", he still treated this girl as his daughter from the bottom of his heart, and his usual concern was naturally beyond words.

"Yes!" Xie Wanting responded without refusing.

Anyway, her goal has been achieved, and she also has Su Yu's contact information. It will not be difficult to make an appointment with him alone later.

At this moment, there is no need to stay here anymore.

Seeing Xie Wanting's agreement, Zhou Guohua hurriedly called his assistant and said: "Xiao He, take the lady back. Drive slowly on the road and pay attention to safety."

"Okay, Mr. Zhou!" the assistant responded, and then followed Xie Wanting out.

As Xie Wanting left, in an unobtrusive corner of the banquet hall, a middle-aged man looked at Su Yu carefully, with a slight hint of wariness in his eyes, and left.

Afterwards, the banquet came to an end.

Su Yu felt that he had drunk a little too much, so he restrained himself, said goodbye to everyone, and returned to the hotel room.

Then, rest for the night.

The next day, when he woke up, finished washing, finished breakfast, and accompanied by his assistant Li Xiaoling, came to the conference hall prepared by the hotel. The vigorous 'Future Investment' summit exchange meeting had begun!