Chapter 26 The Essence of Stock Investment

Su Yu didn't pay much attention to the various rumors about him in the online foreign exchange and gold trading financial circles.

After all, for a trader, fame is not a living thing. Only his ability can continuously make profits from the volatile financial market.

That is the most important thing, and it is also the true foundation of one’s life.

After briefly browsing the financial information in the morning, Su Yu replied to the Penguin account. Zhou Jianming, general manager of Huaguo Operations of Yingxiu Securities, asked him if he had received the text message that the various account permissions were activated, and then turned his attention to the stock market that was about to open. , and the stocks that you care about.

Huaqingbao and Wangsu Technology still have no sudden good or bad announcements.

The pre-market attention of the two stocks is still in a state of one cold and one hot. Hua Qingbao ranks high on the top ten popular stocks list, while Wangsu Technology has received little attention and discussion.

At 9:15, the two cities began collective bidding.

After yesterday's emotional rest and stock price adjustment, Huaqingbao opened slightly higher today, and then the bidding continued to rise, finally opening 1.25% higher; Wangsu Technology continued its usual deserted style during the collective bidding period, with only 52 lots traded. The order finally opened 0.12% lower.

At 9:30, the two cities officially started trading.

Hua Qingbao first followed the bullish sentiment of opening higher and quickly rose for a while, and then began to gradually dive, falling into a volatile trend of rising and falling; Internet Speed ​​Technology was stable as usual, with countless small orders bidding transactions. , closely following the fluctuations of the GEM index, without any independent market and trends.

Su Yu opened his stock trading account and looked at the 1.5 million funds lying in the account.

Continue to use small orders to continuously accept sales from Internet Speed ​​Technology.

At 10:33, through continuous operations, Su Yu basically consumed all the 1.5 million funds in his personal account. He bought all the stocks of Wangsu Technology, holding a total of 60,000 shares, with an average cost price of 24.46 yuan.

After he bought all Internet Speed ​​Technology...

Until the afternoon close, Internet Speed ​​Technology had no performance, and even fell slightly, closing at 24.39.

Faced with the continuous sluggish trend of Internet Speed ​​Technology and the losses of the customer financial management account for three consecutive trading days.

Su Yu still didn't care.

On the other hand, Liu Tianshui, one of the owners of his financial account, was confused when he opened his stock account and took a look at his positions. He couldn't figure out why Su Yu wanted to buy this stock.

However, even if he had doubts in his heart, he did not choose to interfere with Su Yu at this time.

Instead, he continued to choose to believe Su Yu and remain silent.

After the three consecutive declines of Wangsu Technology, on Thursday, April 18, with the sluggish performance of the market, Wangsu Technology failed to rise, but once again set a trend of four consecutive declines, causing Su Yu’s financial management account to , four consecutive days of losses.

After the close...

Liu Tianshui glanced at the account and still couldn't figure out why Su Yu held the position, but he still remained silent.

Su Yu, on the other hand, browsed various market information and was still confident and patient about the fundamental changes and position logic of Wangsu Technology.

"Su Yu, I invite you to join the VIP customer group of our sales department. Please pass."

When Su Yu was hanging out in the online forum, Liang Bin sent him a message.

Su Yu replied with the word 'Yeah', then looked at the group invitation message that popped up and clicked Agree.

Entering the group, Su Yu found that all the high-net-worth customers in the entire sales department were basically there, including Liu Tianshui and Sun Tianhong, who he had interacted with before.

Of course, except for customers in the group.

There are also several major investment consultants, brokers in the sales department, and the head manager of the customer department.

"Zhao Investment Consulting, in recent days, the market has been very weak. It is in sharp contrast to last week's strong rebound. Stocks such as China Commercial Bank, Huaxin Securities, Ping An Group, Qianzhou Moutai, etc. have basically fallen again. Back to the starting point, is this the end of the market rebound?"

"Many votes have not only fallen back to their original point, but have even reached new lows."

"Yes, do the so-called core assets such as Huaguo Petroleum, Shenhua Coal, and Huaguo Baosteel still have a future?"

“Is there still hope for the market to reach 2,500 points?”

"How long will the bear market last, and when will the bull market come? I heard that the Federal Reserve is preparing to withdraw from the QE program and is preparing to raise interest rates in the future. Does this mean that our stock market will continue to fall?"

"Zhao Investment Consulting used to say that if bank stocks were lower than 0.8 times PB, they were absolutely undervalued, and they could add positions. But now the valuations of major banks such as China Commercial Bank, Huajian Bank, and Huanong Bank are all around 0.7 times PB, and their stock prices It’s still falling, what’s going on?”

"Also, I found that the recent trend of the GEM has been stronger than that of the main board. Does this mean that the future market trend will be in the GEM stocks?"

“Does the concept of ‘mobile games’ that has become very popular recently have any future?”

"Hua Qingbao fell into a sharp decline again today. The high point has retraced more than 12%. I bought a lot at the high point. What should I do now? Do I want to sell?"

“Does mobile phone industry chain stocks still have a future?”

"I hold a position in Xingwei Communications. How about this stock?"

Su Yu opened the group chat box and saw countless questions presented to him.

"Stock market investment is an endurance race." Among countless questions, Zhao Investment Consulting in the group replied, "I insist that the stocks of large banks with 0.7 times PB have investment value and can be invested in the long term. The stock price Whether it will rise in the short term, no one knows, but looking at the long-term cycle, I believe this must be the bottom range. If you invest at this position, you will most likely be able to obtain generous investment returns in the future."

“As for the domestic impact of the Fed’s exit from QE and even expectations of interest rate hikes…”

"In this regard, our brokerage's macro analyst has several research and analysis reports, which are very clear and I can share them with the group."

With that said, he shared a link.

"Also..." Zhao Tougu paused and continued, "The overall PE of GEM is obviously higher than the PE valuation of the entire market, and the investment risk is very high."

"The reason why the recent trend of GEM is obviously stronger than that of the main board."

"Mainly because of the dominance of hot money in the market, it is supported by the hype of many concepts, which attracts retail investors to follow suit."

"However, without the guidance of long-term funds, hot money alone cannot support the long-term market. I believe that this irrational hype will end soon, and then... the market will return to a normal investment environment, with core blue chips , as well as many core asset stocks, will also usher in a revaluation."

"The hype piled on the bubble will not last long. This is proven by history."

"Therefore, I am not optimistic about the market situation of GEM, and I also hope that all customers will participate with caution."

"As for the analysis of individual stocks, I have always recommended heavyweight stocks such as China Commercial Bank, Huaxin Securities, and Ping An Group. The fundamentals of these stocks are still excellent and their valuations are very low. I am still optimistic about other stocks. Please pay attention to the relevant research reports of our brokerage."

After expressing his views, Zhao Tougu stopped speaking.

Su Yu nodded slightly. Although he disagreed with many of Zhao Investment Consultant's views, he still admired his overall view of the investment strategy.

Indeed, investing is an endurance race over a long distance, not a sprint.

The short-term concept of chasing hot spots seems lively, but in the long run, there are very few who can continue to make profits through this short-term chasing.

so……

For ordinary investors, long-term investment within the safety margin is the only magic weapon to win.

But at this moment, the domestic investment market is not mature.

Whether it is a small retail investor group, or a market player with millions or tens of millions of funds, or even many private equity institutions and fund institutions, they all pay attention to short-term effects and cannot tolerate excessively long holding periods, which naturally creates The market is experiencing a wave of continuous concept speculation and a short-term chasing effect.

"So...all the stocks on the GEM cannot be held for a long time?"

"Hey, it seems that Hua Qingbao won't go back up again."

"Indeed, even if the blue-chip stocks in the market fell for a month, they would only drop by 7 or 8 points. It is easy for concept stocks to rise, but it is even easier to fall. I also took over Hua Qingbao at a high level, and in three trading days, it was I lost 10%, so looking at it... blue chip is still a safe bet."

"But even if blue-chip stocks fall slowly, the long-term cumulative decline is still terrifying!"

"Yes, cutting flesh with a dull knife is more uncomfortable than cutting flesh with a sharp knife."

"Are GEM stocks really worse than main board blue-chip stocks? Why do bad stocks keep rising, while good stocks keep falling?"

"Expectations!" Su Yu couldn't help but reply when he saw this, "I don't think stocks are good or bad, only the difference in future expectations."

"What do you mean?" someone continued to ask.

Su Yu thought about it and felt that he was no longer an employee of the sales department and had nothing to take care of.

So he continued to reply: "The core essence of stock trading is the speculation of future expectations, and the reasons for the rise and fall of stocks are also due to the buying and selling behavior of market investors regarding changes in future expectations of stocks."

"Blue-chip stocks are considered excellent because of their stable performance and development."

“But precisely because its performance and corporate development have become mature and stable, it is difficult for it to exceed market expectations. Therefore, its stock price can only fluctuate around the market’s average valuation level, and it is difficult for it to rise or fall sharply. Moves happen.”

"Many people think that many three-no concept stocks are garbage because their performance and corporate development are often full of uncertainties."

"Of course, it's also because of the uncertainty and the market's low expectations for it."

"Then, once the market sees some favorable conditions that can promote changes in the fundamentals of these stocks, there will be huge room for speculation in their stock prices."

"Take Hua Qingbao as an example..."

"Based on its historical performance and company fundamental analysis, it is not among the stocks that the public considers to be excellent."

"But with the unprecedented surge in the entire smartphone terminal market and the broad potential incremental market prospects of 'mobile games', it has the potential to quickly change its performance and the company will usher in huge development."

"With these possible expectations, the stock price has skyrocketed."

"According to what you said, Hua Qingbao can still rise?" A customer in the group who took over the stock asked anxiously.

Su Yu replied: "It depends on whether Hua Qingbao can rise at this stage and whether its current stock price fully reflects future expectations."

"What do you think?" someone asked in confusion.

Su Yu continued to reply: "For example, whether there are any new changes in the industry benefits that promote changes in its fundamentals, such as whether its ability to release performance under changes in industry fundamentals has been misestimated... The research on stocks does not just stop at On the K-line, we should not only focus on market sentiment, but also conduct sufficient market research."

"Only in this way can we make correct judgments and ensure that we do not panic during the shareholding stage."

Zhao Tougu in the group was a little surprised when he heard Su Yu's words. He typed back with a smile: "What this gentleman said, 'There are no good or bad stocks, only differences in expectations.' There is a certain truth. The stock price is indeed It is a performance that reflects the company’s fundamentals and expectations.”

“But we need to realistically judge whether the current stock price of a stock fully reflects future expectations.”

"That's a huge pain point."

"Ordinary investors do not have the research capabilities of institutional investors, and they are even less able to see clearly the true situation of many stocks with poor fundamentals. They can only speculate according to market sentiment."

"So once you get involved, it's difficult to quit at the right time."

"This has become the source of losses for ordinary investors."

"In view of this situation, I think the investment path that is truly suitable for ordinary investors is to embrace blue chips and make long-term investments within a margin of safety."

"I don't quite agree with what Zhao Investment Consulting said," Su Yu said. "The difficulty of understanding actually exists whether it is blue chip stocks or concept stocks, and a company's historical performance does not mean that it will perform well in the future."

"So, as for the margin of safety..."

“I don’t think that exists as long as it’s venture capital.”

"I also believe that blue-chip, concept stock investment, short-term and long-term investment, in essence, do not have any advantages or disadvantages. It is only related to the investor's risk preference and personal investment style."

As the topic deepened, the differences between the two people's opinions on investment philosophy became larger and larger, and there were many differences.

However, as the differences grew, Zhao Tougu felt more and more that Su Yu's insights and experience in investment and the market were even more thorough than his own.

This surprised and shocked him, a gold medal investment consultant in his sales department.

He couldn't help but hurriedly inquire about Su Yu's identity.

On the other hand, the old customers in the group, when they saw this new customer member who had just joined, they were able to debate for so long with the gold medal investment consultant in the sales department about market investment, and some of the ideas he said were really simple and simple. Understanding, they all benefited a lot, and were secretly surprised for a while, and they were all curious about Su Yu's identity.

"Sir, your theory is solid, but investment... always has to be implemented in practice." When the discussion between Su Yu and Zhao Investment Consulting came to an end, a customer in the group couldn't help but said, " Can you tell me which industry, sector and stock you are optimistic about?"