Chapter 270: Gambler’s Psychology in Trading!

Fortune Road appeared on five "securities and venture capital" concept stocks of Orient Securities, Orient Venture Capital, Shibei High-tech, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech, and Zijiang Enterprise, and they were all on the buy list. As for Hua Hua, which many people speculated For the three stocks Qingbao, Wangsu Technology, and Potential Hengxin, Fortune Road did not show up.

"I bought Oriental Securities for 43 million, Oriental Ventures for 28 million, Shibei High-tech and Zhangjiang High-tech, both at around 17 million, and Zijiang Enterprise for 9.4 million. Sure enough... Wealth Road is still rapidly increasing its positions.' Securities In the field of venture capital, we can look forward to the market outlook, and we can look forward to the market outlook!"

After the Dragon and Tiger list was refreshed, discussions in major stock forums and communities in the market became more intense and heated.

"Fortune Road continues to lock positions in the two core stocks of 'Hua Qingbao and Wangsu Technology', and Hengxin, which uses the potential of buying from Fusheng Road, also continues to lock positions, haha... It's far beyond expectations, far beyond expectations. , Fortune Road continues to be net buying, and the market will definitely rise sharply next Monday.”

"Net buying, net buying again, Fortune Road should be using funds from the 'Yuhang No. 2' fund to increase positions, right?"

"Wealth Road's two core weighting concepts of GEM, 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain', except for the wave of lightening up the position the day before yesterday, have not moved at all since then, and now Wealth Road is rapidly following up.' In the field of venture capital and securities, this should mean that Fortune Road is firmly optimistic about the bull market, right? It also shows that the main line of subsequent market speculation that Fortune Road most agrees with is 'venture capital, securities', 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphones' These three industrial chains, after all, judging from the position data previously disclosed by Fortune Road and the recent market ranking data, almost all positions of Fortune Road are in these three areas."

"I also feel that Fortune Road is using the funds from the 'Yuhang No. 2' fund to increase its position!"

"Whether it is or not, at least Fortune Road continues to be net-buying, which is good for the market and also shows that the current market is a bull market."

"Fortunately, I didn't follow you today!"

"With Wealth Road and Dinghai Shenzhen, I feel that next week's 'Hua Qingbao, Internet Speed ​​Technology' and other core stocks of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' adjusted this week will definitely hit new highs."

“Today’s relationship is not a point to reduce the position, but to increase the position!”

"It must be a point to increase positions. Huaqingbao and Wangsu Technology have fallen to the limit, which is a good time to buy the bottom. After all, the fundamentals of these two core stocks have not changed at all. The expectations for the future are still extremely strong. Sooner or later, they will hit new highs." thing."

"Before the Dragon and Tiger List came out, everyone thought it was Fortune Road that was responsible for it. But... Fortune Road didn't come out at all. Looking at it this way... next Monday, Hua Qingbao and Wangsu Technology will definitely reverse the contract."

"There is still potential for Heng Xin. With the blessing of the seats on Fusheng Road, this check is going really well."

"I'm afraid the market situation for 'securities and venture capital' will become even more intense next week, right? Orient Securities and Orient Venture Capital will be listed on Monday and Wednesday, so it should be a sure thing."

"It's a pity that Huatong Securities doesn't have a dragon and tiger list. The core weight of this stock has exploded to nearly 4 billion today. I suspect that Fortune Road has also bought a lot of this stock. After all, according to Fortune Road's current trading rules The amount of funds, small-cap concept stocks alone, is simply not enough for him to buy.”

"I also feel that Huatong Securities has been so strong today, and there must be buying support from Wealth Road behind it."

"Wealth Road is following the field of 'Securities and Venture Capital', and various institutions, judging from the Dragon and Tiger List, are also following the field of 'Securities and Venture Capital'. This should be enough to show that the line of 'Venture Capital and Securities' is connected. It will be the core line of market speculation for a while, right?"

"That's for sure, mother, there's no doubt about it!"

"We have all said that the core stocks of 'securities and venture capital' should be doubled first."

"Wangsu Technology is also selling a lot of money from institutions today. It is estimated that these institutions have also added positions in the concept of 'securities and venture capital'. It seems... everyone now fully agrees with the concept of 'securities and venture capital'." It’s the main line of hype.”

"Wealth Road and institutions are rapidly increasing their positions, and the various technical aspects of the index trend are very beautiful. There is no reason not to agree with the market trend of the 'securities and venture capital' line!"

"After all, 'securities' is the pioneer sector of the bull market..."

"With the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index below 2,500 points, any buying behavior should not result in loss of money."

"This market situation has definitely reversed."

"After six years of adjustment, it's time to reverse."

"In the past 6 years of adjustments, I have lost 85%. If I don't turn around, I will lose even my final principal."

"I hope this round of 'securities' market will explode more violently than the one in 2007, so that... I can get some blood back."

"The bull market is coming, and I want to add leverage. If I add leverage below 2,500 points, the risk shouldn't be big, right?"

"As long as the principal is full, let's forget about the leverage. I think we can take another look. Although the market situation is indeed very powerful at the moment, the increase in the market turnover from month to month is actually a bit slow, and the Shanghai Stock Index is a few percent today. It went back and forth to the 2,400-point mark several times, but it still failed to reach it at the final close, which feels like a hidden danger.”

"The GEM index failed to reach a new closing high in the end. It was indeed a bit unsatisfactory."

"The leverage can wait and see, and then go up when the opportunities on the right side of the market become more and more obvious, but at this time... we can no longer maintain a defensive strategy, and we must add positions."

"Follow the path of wealth!"

"'Securities and venture capital' are big concept sectors. Even if you lag behind the wealth road for a day, you won't miss much opportunity."

"Yes, if Fortune Road buys it, I will buy it; if Fortune Road sells it, I will sell it!"

"By the way, will the regulators continue to release good news over the weekend? I think there will be a lot of funds rushing to raise funds at the end of today's session."

"Regardless of whether there is good news or not, at this time, the market sentiment is not bad. As long as there is no heavy negative blow, the index will rise inertly driven by market sentiment. And as long as the upward trend can continue for another month, it should There will be a huge number of new investors entering the market.”

"I hope it can continue!"

"It will definitely continue. In fact, after so many years of bear market devastation and the index's continuous fluctuations between 2,000 and 2,500 points, many of the holding chips at this stage have settled down. The upward pressure on the index at this stage is not great. In addition, the ChiNext Index has reached a record high, and there is no pressure to hold up, so...on the whole, even if the market turnover increases month-on-month, which is a bit slow, the market conditions should continue."

"The early stages of a bull market are inherently hazy."

"Anyway, I think the market is already at a historical low range at this position. After buying, even if the market changes and you can't make money, I guess you won't be able to get deep."

"So many years have passed. In just one moment, I will be full of purchases. Do you believe that you can trick me?"

As time goes by, the topics about Fortune Road's continued buying of positions on the Dragon and Tiger List, the topic about speculation about the market outlook, the topic about the authenticity of the bull market... have continued to be hot, and the mood of the majority of investors, He was still very high-pitched and extremely excited.

And during this period...

Yuhang, within Jingda Investment, Mu Yao, who has five times the leverage and heavily invested in Hua Qingbao, Changqu Technology, and Internet Speed ​​Technology, does not look very good-looking, and is extremely depressed inside.

With the support of large financing leverage, it only took two days for his personal account to go from a profit of more than 30 million yuan to a loss of more than 30 million yuan. During the two days when he went from a huge profit to a huge loss , but the market index continued to hit new highs, which was a devastating blow to his self-confidence...

"It's obvious that this guy on Fortune Road didn't sell, yet it fell so hard. It's simply unreasonable." Mu Yao stared at the market that had been fixed for a long time and said angrily, "When did these guys from the institutions start chasing the rise and the fall!"

"I hope it can be reversed next Monday..."

"It must be reversed!"

He thought to himself: "The good news is overwhelming, the index is at a new high, and the market investment sentiment is so intense, and it has been adjusted for three consecutive days. Why should we turn back and restart the upward trend?"

After today’s sharp decline of ‘Hua Qingbao and Wangsu Technology’.

His personal stock holding account is almost facing the risk liquidation line. If the two stocks hit the limit again on Monday, his 50 million investment, under the 5 times leverage, will lose nothing, and now he... Under the macro situation where he had already suffered huge losses, the index was still reaching new highs, and the market conditions were very good, it was unbearable for him to take the initiative to remove the leverage and retain the last bit of principal.

In fact, when the gambler's heart arises in investors, even if there is a final retreat.

Most people will never look back.

After all, at this time, using leverage to quickly turn around is their most instinctive thought. After they have fully invested and suffered huge losses, most people will not see the coffin or shed tears.

As Mu Yao muttered to himself, at this time, in the core trading room of Jingda Investment.

Fund manager Lin Tingzong frowned visibly after reviewing today's market trends and the Dragon and Tiger List data: "It's really strange that institutions are selling core stock chips like 'Hua Qingbao and Wangsu Technology' today. Why are they selling so much?" Urgent, and there is also the concept of 'reorganization and backdoor'. Is the ebb of funds going too far? In this market situation... Xinwei Group can actually hit the limit three times in a row. It is simply incompatible with the hot market sentiment and market conditions. ah!"

"Also, the line of 'securities and venture capital' diverges too quickly."

"It's only the second day, and it's already in full swing. It feels like funds are clearly driving and leading it. However, Wealth Road is on today's list, and it actually bought less than 150 million in total, which is less than yesterday. Most of them are abnormal...very abnormal!"

"'Mobile Internet', 'Smartphone Industry Chain', and 'Restructuring and Backdooring', these early popular mainline concepts, have indeed gone very weak in recent days." Next to Lin Tingzong, Gu Chijiang added, "But the market as a whole should There aren’t any big risks, right?”

"According to my previous judgment, I also believe that the current market is in a state of comprehensive breakthrough." Lin Tingzong said, "But this afternoon's violent dive, as well as the data performance on the Dragon and Tiger list at this moment, make me less confident. Convinced, I feel... There seems to be a potential shadow of risk within the market, restricting the entry of large funds and suppressing the upward trend of the market, but it is unclear where this risk shadow comes from and what it is. ?”

"An intuition?" Gu Chijiang asked.

Lin Tingzong nodded and replied: "Yes, it's just an intuition."

"But we can't just adjust the fund's macro operation strategy based on pure intuition!" Gu Chijiang paused, "There must be a reason and logic."

Lin Tingzong thought for a while and said: "There is a high probability that the market turnover has been unable to expand further. In recent days, the market conditions have not been on the GEM at all. We have completely missed the market. It is inevitable that we will be paranoid. I will take a closer look at the market. On the logical line, we are completely behind on the 'securities and venture capital' line. It is true that we are pursuing it now, and it is not true that we are not pursuing it."

"Okay!" Gu Chijiang responded.

Then after pondering for a while, he remembered that Lin Tingzong just said that the problem of Fortune Road increasing positions was not normal, and couldn't help asking: "Old Lin, you just said that the actions of Fortune Road increasing positions in 'securities and venture capital' are not normal." What do you mean it's too normal? What's wrong with it?"

"The buying amount is abnormal." Lin Tingzong said, "Yesterday Fortune Road was very urgent to buy, and the amount of each stock bought was basically at the limit, but look at today..."

"The purchase of Oriental Securities was 43 million, the purchase of Oriental Venture Capital was 28 million, the purchase of Shibei High-tech and Zhangjiang High-Tech was both around 17 million, and the purchase of Zijiang Enterprise was only 9.4 million. These purchases, compared with these stocks Today’s total transaction volume is too low.”

"If Fortune Road is really eager to enter the market, it wants to seize chips in the fields of 'securities and venture capital'."

"Then what appears on the Dragon and Tiger list today will not be just this amount of buying."

"Also, Fortune Road has been completely silent on the two main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' in the GEM direction in the past two days. This is not normal."

"Obviously on October 17th, Fortune Road reduced its positions so decisively and urgently on the two main concepts of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'. In one breath, five to six billion were listed directly on the list. There is no reason for it to stop suddenly, not to mention... In the past two days, the market trends of the two main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' have not been ideal, completely underperforming the broader market index."

"It makes sense!" After Lin Tingzong's explanation, Gu Chijiang understood the contradiction in his heart and continued to ask, "Tell me your guess."

Lin Tingzong nodded, pondered for a while, and then said: "I was wondering...whether Fortune Road has already completed profit harvesting and chips on the two main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' All have been sold, and the sale on October 17 was Fortune Road’s final chip exit.”

"I'm still thinking..."

"The 'Yuhang No. 1' fund previously announced its position data and net worth in September. Was this intentional?"

"Fortune Road has always used its seat influence to stir up market sentiment and follow-up funds, so as to complete speculation and profit harvesting in the best way."

"No one can predict the market trend in advance." Gu Chijiang said, "You said that Wealth Road has left the market early on the two main concepts of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'. This is possible. Yes, after all, in the many trading days after the National Day, many popular stocks on these two main lines exploded in volume, and they were not on the Dragon and Tiger list. With the sufficient liquidity of these stocks at the time, the road to wealth was Gotta go.”

"But it's impossible for you to say that Mr. Su has been calculating how to profit from this round of market prices since September, when he announced the net value of the 'Yuhang No. 1' fund."

"After all, at that time..."

“No one would have known that this round of market would explode to such an extent, or that the two main lines of ‘mobile Internet’ and ‘smartphone industry chain’ would be so fiercely speculated by the market around the National Day. "

"You keep talking..."

Gu Chijiang roughly guessed what Lin Tingzong's real concerns were, and said with a smile: "Do you think wealth lies on the line of 'securities and venture capital'? What is the reason for such a counter-intuitive pace of increasing positions?"

"If my previous guess is correct..." Lin Tingzong said, "then the funds from Fortune Road should have been adjusting positions and exchanging shares to increase the chips in the 'securities and venture capital' sector. In other words, ...I think Fortune Road's positions in the field of 'securities and venture capital' are by no means more than what we have seen. I even suspect... that he has heavily invested in this field. The buying data of the two days of Dragon and Tiger List , but he also used the influence of his seat to stir up market sentiment and follow-up funds, and let these investors support him."

"But how can Wealth Road predict in advance that when the two main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' are adjusted, the line of 'securities and venture capital' will explode?" Gu Chijiang said very puzzledly, "One paragraph The formation of the main market and its full-scale outbreak cannot be dominated by just one hot money seat. This is only possible when the market has sufficient expectations in this regard, and the right time, location, and people are available!"

"I can't figure this out either," Lin Tingzong said, "but this is the only reasonable explanation!"

"Oh, and..."

Lin Tingzong thought for a while and continued: "In addition to the confusing movements of the main positions of Fortune Road, the movements of the main institutions at the core of the market are also very strange."

"Netspeed Technology suffered a massive sell-off from institutional funds today."

"Xinwei Group has dropped to the limit three times in a row, and the concept of 'restructuring and backdooring' has collapsed across the board. Even within this line, the stocks that were hotly speculated in the early stage have been extremely heavy in the market selling."

"This doesn't seem like a natural adjustment, it's more like there's something negative going on!"

"But the trend of the index is clearly still at a new high, and market investment confidence is still advancing rapidly. Although the month-on-month increase in transaction volume in the two cities is less than expected, it is still considered healthy."

"This almost polarized market performance seems very strange in the bull market situation that everyone has already concluded."

"That's why I said that I feel that there is a shadow of risk hanging over the market."

"Is the market favorable for the concept of 'reorganization and backdoor'?" Gu Chijiang pondered after listening to Lin Tingzong's analysis, "Is it necessary to tighten the review standards for backdoor listings? But if that is true...for 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone' The two main lines of the mobile phone industry chain, as well as the GEM, have no impact!"

Lin Tingzong said: "I can't guess yet. I just think that the current market trend may not be as optimistic as we think. In the future... I'm afraid the market may relapse!"

"So, your suggestion is... to temporarily reduce your position?" Gu Chijiang asked.

Lin Tingzong was silent for a moment and replied: "I think we should take a look at the weekend news first. If the weekend news is still the same as now, then we will reduce the amount. Our fund's net value has finally returned to normal. We would rather earn less and slowly ...You can’t be too radical if you take it step by step!”

"Okay!" Gu Chijiang said, "Although I have reservations about the shadow of market risks you mentioned, but for the two main concepts of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain', can we still do it at a high level?" If we continue to advance, we lack some confidence.”

"And if Fortune Road is based on these two main lines, there is indeed no position."

"Then these two main lines, the hope of making a breakthrough at a high position is even slimmer."

"So, instead of doing this... it is better to reduce our positions and stop profits while we still have profits, and wait until the market trend becomes clearer."

Lin Tingzong saw that Gu Chijiang agreed with him after some analysis and persuasion.

I couldn't help but breathe a sigh of relief.

And just when the two of them were making new adjustments to their investment strategies based on the refreshed data on the Dragon and Tiger List, at this moment... the regulators once again released good news to the market, and various financial media and securities media reported on the surge in the stock market. News reports that are strongly bullish on the market outlook have also spread all over the Internet.

In the evening, U.S. stocks continued to rise sharply at the opening, which further intensified market sentiment.

Subsequently, during the two days of the weekend, as emotions continued to ferment, there were obvious signs of more investors paying attention to the stock market.

"Looking at the market sentiment, everyone's thoughts are that the market index on Monday is probably at the daily limit." On the weekend, at night, Li Mengboring refreshed the posts on the stock forum, smiled, and said to Su Yu beside him, " The regulators are so aggressive, this wave... when the news of IPO resumption comes out, I am afraid that many people will be buried!"

"Without this wave of market trends, the IPO would not have been launched at all." Su Yu said, "From this aspect, it is not surprising that they are so radical."

Li Mengmeng thought for a while and nodded: "That's right. Compared to re-opening direct financing channels and restoring the hematopoietic function of the stock market, the emotions and profits and losses of retail investors in the market are indeed not worth mentioning, and they are indeed objects that can be exploited."

"Actually, whether the IPO is restarted or not is not the key factor that determines the direction of the market at all." Su Yu said, "This is just an emotional amplifier at most. The key... is how to loosen credit, let more funds enter the market, and how to drive the market. , creating a sustained money-making effect and attracting a large number of retail investors.”

"In the current market, the only areas that truly have core logic and great room for imagination are the emerging economic areas driven by the two main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'."

“However, the current proportion of these two major areas in the overall market is extremely limited.”

"Even if these two main lines are pulled to the sky, it will be difficult to drive the entire market."

“So, if we want to create a sustained money-making effect, attract more retail investors to enter the market, thereby bringing more incremental funds, and creating the real foundation of the bull market, regulators, or the core main institutions of the market, are afraid that We still need to do some important things in the direction of the motherboard."

"Doing something important?" Li Meng was a little confused, "What is it?"

Su Yu smiled and said: "Tell me a sustainable story. After all, whether it is hot money or retail investors, they like to hear stories the most. Only with stories can there be room for imagination and sustainable expectations for the future. And as long as there is With room for imagination and continued expectations, the current fundamentals and performance become less important.”

"This... institutions and regulators should be good at it." Li Meng smiled softly, "Look at the news released in the past two days, which is neither painful nor unpleasant, but it seems that every one of them is good."

"No matter how many benefits there are, this fire should be burning out soon." Su Yu said.

"Yeah!" Li Meng responded and continued, "I see in the market, everyone's discussion about our institution, of course... is mainly aimed at you. Most people think that our main positions are still still there. On the two main concepts of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'."

"They will naturally think so." Su Yu said, "If they all think that our main positions have been adjusted to the fields of 'securities and venture capital', then something bad will happen. And I deliberately exposed it on the Dragon and Tiger List." The buying and selling behavior is completely meaningless.”

If the market generally speculates that their main positions have been adjusted to the line of 'securities and venture capital'.

The currently hotly-hyped conceptual fields of ‘securities and venture capital’ may soon usher in massive selling and huge profits from major super institutions.

After all, the current line of ‘securities and venture capital’ can still be so strong.

It is because the super main institution that has obtained some inside information is using its seat on the wealth road and its continuous pursuit of positions to attract more follow-up funds to participate, which intensifies the ability of funds to follow the trend and the number of orders in this field.

If the main funds of Wealth Road are completed, the enthusiasm of retail investors to follow the trend will not make any progress.

However, the main concept line of ‘securities and venture capital’, which has no core logic support and has been rapidly hyped up, should naturally fall.

"When do you think the news about the resumption of IPO will be clear?" Li Meng paused for a while and said, "The line of 'securities and venture capital' has been so hotly speculated, it is estimated that the duration... won't be too long. !”

Su Yu thought for a while and replied: "Such a large-scale action by the main market institutions proves that the news of 'IPO restart' has most likely been determined internally. After the follow-up process is completed, it should be announced to the market. , the time...should be in the second half of next week!"

"Then we... need to take action in advance." Li Meng said.

Su Yu nodded slightly and responded: "Let's take a look at the market trend tomorrow. If we still hold high and fight high, and market expectations and emotions are unable to make progress, then we should really start to exit."

In this round of hype, Su Yu's expectations were not high.

As long as the overall profit is about 15%, he is satisfied.

According to the current market trend, in the two days since the "Securities and Venture Capital" line broke out, the overall increase in its related sectors has exceeded 10%, and it is not far away from the 15% target.

What's more, the overall increase in the dozen or so stocks they hold heavy positions has already exceeded 15%.

Under such circumstances, it is not difficult to obtain an overall 15% return in this round of speculation.

"After this round of hype, what are your thoughts on the subsequent investment plans?" Li Meng asked, "After the news of the IPO restart is officially announced, market sentiment will definitely reverse, plus there are expectations and major concepts with room for imagination. The sector has been speculated to a high level in advance. With emotions collapsing, profits are pouring out. The market may inevitably undergo a drastic adjustment. It may take a long time to restore the market in the future. How should we lay out the plan? "

Su Yu smiled and said, "This round of market prices has not passed, and you are thinking about the next step?"

"Be prepared for a rainy day!" Li Meng said, "If you don't worry about the long term, you will have to worry about the near future, right?"

Su Yu nodded slightly and said: "As you said, after this round of market conditions, the market adjustment time will probably not be short, so... we will adjust the holdings of the two funds to a low level, and slowly pick up the positions when the market adjusts violently. High-quality chips and cheap chips will do. As for the main directions, they are still the two conceptual directions of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'. They are just specific targets. I'm afraid we need to think about it carefully."

"Returning to the two main concepts of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'?" Li Meng was a little surprised, "Then we may not be able to pick up any high-quality and cheap chips. After all, these two main lines have been continuously speculated this year. There have been several waves, and every corner, as long as there is expectation and room for imagination, has been fired.”

"That's not necessarily the case." Su Yu said, "There is no shortage of bullish stocks in the macroeconomic main line. Since 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain' have the strongest expectations in the next two to three years, or even five years, The conceptual field with the largest imagination space is worthy of continuous digging, repeated layout, and investment... It means to work deeply and carefully in the macro development trend and the strongest trend. After all... Standing on the trend, even pigs are Can fly."

"but……"

Su Yu paused and then said: "In addition to investment, we must pay more attention to the training of traders. Currently, there are still too few people in the company's trading team who can shoulder important responsibilities."

"Yeah!" Li Meng nodded, deeply agreeing with this point.

"Actually... we can consider poaching core talents from other companies." After a pause, Li Meng added, "Now our company has quite a reputation in the industry. If certain conditions are relaxed, we should be able to Attract a group of outstanding talents in the industry.”

Saying...

The two began to discuss in detail the company's "talent introduction plan".

Finally, after formulating a rough plan, the two of them went to bed separately. During this period, the discussion on the stock market in major online stock forums in the market remained high.

In this fierce fire cooking oil, market investment sentiment is extremely high.

Monday, October 22nd, is here.

The time has reached 9 o'clock and the market has not yet opened. In the minds of the majority of market investors, the market has reached its daily limit, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has begun to hit 2,500 points.

However, at 9:15, the two cities officially started collective bidding.

The vast majority of stocks in the market did not open as sharply higher as expected, but only rose slightly, and the selling was obvious!