Chapter 373 The core logic of market hype!

"what happened?"

At the moment when the index and many popular stocks are rising and falling one after another.

Inside the Shenzhen Xinniu Fund Company, which also holds a large number of popular stocks in the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', in the 'Manniu No. 1' fund product trading room, Mou Zhengxing, the leader of the trading team, looked at the market trend and was shocked Startled, he hurriedly asked Fang Xinsheng, the fund manager next to him: "Has there been any sudden bad news in the market?"

"Probably not!" Fang Xinsheng stared closely at the market trends of the two markets and responded, "It should be that the market attacked too quickly, causing the market's incremental funds to fail to keep up, which triggered a large number of sell-offs and profit-taking pressure from above. , don’t worry, it’s a natural adjustment.”

"So... this should be today's emotional high point and intraday high point, right?" Mou Zhengxing asked after reacting.

Fang Xinsheng nodded and replied: "Absolutely!"

"Then we can make a day trip and make more profits." Mou Zhengxing said with a smile.

Fang Xinsheng responded: "When the market continues to rise, you can only do it in the forward direction and not in the opposite direction. What if I make a mistake in judgment? You may not be able to get back the chips you throw out at this time." , it’s the same sentence... Zhengxing, as traders, we can’t just focus on the small profits on the market, we must also take a longer-term view.”

After a pause, Fang Xinsheng said again: "Do you know why retail investors in the market, most of the time, can't make money even if they catch the hot stocks?"

"Because they lack patience." Mou Zhengxing said, "Retail investors mostly chase the rise and kill the fall. In their stock-holding philosophy, they want the stocks they hold to rise every day. As long as the stock does not rise one day, or lags behind the market growth, they will I can’t help but want to sell.”

Fang Xinsheng nodded slightly and said: "This is on the one hand, but more importantly, in their eyes, they only see the small profits in front of them, but not the big profit pattern in the macro perspective, so they often pick up the sesame seeds and lose them because of the small profits in front of them. If you get watermelon, it’s just like what you were thinking just now.”

"The intraday trend of the stock market is the most difficult to predict."

"If you focus on this aspect and ignore the general trend, you will often forget the big profits because of the small profits."

"This is a mistake that is relatively easy to make in personal transactions, and it is also something that we, as asset managers, should avoid and be vigilant about."

"Understood!" Mou Zhengxing responded after hearing Fang Xinsheng's warning, "Then we will continue to maintain the current position and make no changes."

Fang Xinsheng smiled and nodded, then continued to turn his gaze back to the board.

At this time, the market trading time has passed 11 o'clock. After hitting the highest point of 2241.49 points, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index fell all the way to 2232 points, and then stopped briefly. Other "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reforms" that were hotly pursued by the market 'Mainline popular stocks also experienced extremely violent shocks at this stage, with their stock prices retracing themselves from their intraday highs.

Among them, the two core leading stocks of China Metallurgical Corporation and China Railway Group have retreated by 2%, from an increase of more than 5 points to about 3 points.

The stocks of Huagong International, Bayi Iron and Steel, Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. fell from around 3 points to less than 2 points.

As for China Fortune Land Development, Kumho Group, Gemdale Group, Poly Real Estate and other popular stocks in the real estate sector, their performance was even weaker.

Of course, in addition to the two core main areas of ‘infrastructure’ and ‘state-owned enterprise reform’.

Other market areas, such as big finance, mobile Internet, smartphone industry chain and other main concepts, basically fluctuate with the index. There is no independent trend, and there is no obvious gathering of main funds or active undertaking. There is no sign of any Continuous money-making effect.

"The money-making effect of the market is still being speculated around the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', and has not been further deepened like the entire market." In the process of the index diving and falling, and the market experiencing violent fluctuations, this At this moment in Yuhang, inside the Yuhang Investment Company, in the fund trading room, Li Meng, who had been watching the changes in the two markets, reported to Su Yu, "This money-making effect cannot be spread as deeply as the entire market, and the current Active funds in the market, under the long-short divergence, are unable to further increase the main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' that are already at relatively high levels, and further open up the market's upward space. If you look at it this way...the amplitude of today's market shocks, It should be between 2241.49 points and 2218 points at the opening.”

"Yeah!" Su Yu nodded slightly, "It's more or less like this. It won't fall too deep, but it won't rise too high either."

"But even so..."

Su Yu paused and continued: "The performance of individual stocks is still remarkable. Overall, the market's hot capital is not low, which gives the market considerable vitality and popularity. In this situation , even if the index does not rise, through the local continuous profit-making effect, the bullish sentiment on and off the market will pick up again after a short adjustment, leading the index to open up space again."

"Indeed." Li Meng responded, "Today, many concept stocks dominated by hot money are the protagonists of the market, such as Beixin Road and Bridge, Shibei High-tech, Shanghai Sanmao, Pudong Construction, Shanghai Steel Union, High-tech Development, etc., which hit the limit yesterday The popular stocks, so far this morning, have actually broken out of the second consecutive board trend."

"Hot money is a group of investors with the sharpest sense of smell in this market." Su Yu took over and said, "They believe that there is still room for continuation of the market outlook. Then the market expectations, after a brief adjustment, will be biased towards the long direction again, that is It’s a natural thing.”

"But after expectations shifted back into alignment..."

Su Yu pondered for a moment and then continued: "The two main market lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', the most lucrative market profit stage, are probably coming to an end, and when the market really reaches the expected level, In the acceleration stage, it’s almost time for us to consider subsequent operational strategies and investment plans.”

"Yeah!" Li Meng responded, "It bottoms out in despair, rises in doubt, accelerates in enthusiasm, and peaks in madness... There is no other change in market sentiment than this."

"Mr. Su..."

While the two were talking, core trader Zhu Tianyang stared at the market and interjected: "If the two main market lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' reach a certain high level and the money-making effect comes to an end, then what will happen to the active funds in the market?" Will the choice...will it turn back to the 'growth stock' route with the small and medium-sized board and GEM as the core?"

"After all, in this round of market rebound after the index bottomed out, at present, the 'growth stock' route centered on the small and medium-sized board and the GEM board is seriously lagging behind the growth of the market. If the main funds in the market are at a high level Take profit at the top and choose to switch between high and low. There should be huge opportunities in areas that were severely sluggish before!"

Su Yu turned around and looked at Zhu Tianyang with a smile. He did not answer directly, but asked instead: "Tianyang, what do you think... what is the hype logic that the main funds in the market have been following? Good news? Valuation? Expected changes in fundamentals? Emotional reaction? Or something..."

Zhu Tianyang pondered for a while and replied uncertainly: "They should be... all of them!"

"Liu Yuan, what do you think?" Su Yu still did not respond directly, but glanced at Liu Yuan, the leader of the trading team 2 on the other side, and asked.

Liu Yuan thought for a while and said: "The money-making effect!"

"Yes!" Su Yu nodded with satisfaction, "The underlying logic of all speculation is the money-making effect, good market news, target valuations, changes in fundamental performance expectations, market sentiment reactions... these are just part of the factors that support the money-making effect. It’s just a factor.”

"The fundamental reason for the hype is that everyone agrees with these logics and can make money by participating."

"Only funds from all walks of life are willing to continue to speculate and open up market space."

"In the current market, the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' have the strongest profit-making effect and logical support. This is why funds from all walks of life are willing to follow up and continue to rush to raise funds to participate in the relay."

"However, no matter how good the underlying expected logic is, as long as it cannot achieve a sustained profit-making effect, it will not be recognized by the main funds in the market, thereby opening up market space."

“Just like the ‘consumption’, ‘medicine’, and ‘big finance’ fields in the market at the moment.”

"Are you saying that their overall valuation is not low? It is already at a historical extreme, and there is no room for imagination in the future? No, there is no main funds to care about it? It is not...a large number of main institutional funds are gathered in these fields. But the main funds from all walks of life tried once, twice, or even multiple times, but they just couldn’t open up the situation.”

"This is because the money-making effect has not been achieved. Everyone can't make money by participating."

"In this way, naturally there will be no continuous main funds entering the market to support the stock price and market conditions."

"And how can we expand the money-making effect step by step, so that the main line investment logic can be recognized by more and more investors, thus forming a positive cycle of market development."

"This requires the various influencing factors just mentioned to form a multi-faceted resonance at a certain market opportunity."

"So, looking back at what you just said, Tianyang, regarding the two core main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' due to the gradual loss of subsequent money-making effects and the gradual departure of major funds from all walks of life, which one will you choose? The issue of direction as a high-low switching target can be clearly analyzed quantitatively.”

“Everything must be about cost-effectiveness.”

"The same is true for financial trading markets!"

"Looking at the entire market, in the dynamic changes of the market, which areas are attractive enough and have enough factors to support the money-making effect, then... that area will be the main funds of all parties, and the next one will gather and speculate. field of."

"And obviously... the main line of 'growth stocks' with the small and medium-sized board and GEM as the core."

"Currently, there are no mature conditions in terms of valuation, future performance expectations, sentiment, and positive market information. The valuation in this field is the highest in the market. Although future performance expectations are good, compared with the high valuation, it is Compared with the hot money blue chips and white horses on the main board, which have reached the historical extreme valuation level, they no longer have any advantage. In terms of emotions, everyone has experienced the speculation in this field by various funds last year and the short-term strength of this field at the beginning of the year. Many people still have expectations in their hearts, and their emotions have not reached freezing point."

"If the sentiment is below freezing, all kinds of holding chips gathered above this area will not be able to be released cleanly, which will cause huge upward pressure on the stock price."

"In terms of positive market information, there are no 'new stories' on the 'growth stocks' line."

"So, it is obvious that the opportunity for the 'growth stocks' line to take over the subsequent market development is not mature. For the time being... there are no big investment opportunities here."

"So, Mr. Su, where do you think the next direction of the market's main funds will be?" Li Meng saw that Su Yu was dissecting the logic of the market's main line market speculation in detail, and asked with a smile, "According to your analysis, the market The pattern of the 28th shift should not change, and the areas that can take over the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' and switch between high and low should also be in the direction of the main board."

"Smart!" Su Yu nodded slightly, "But I am not a god in the market. I can't see the specific direction of switching at the moment. I only know that in the current market dynamics, 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' are The two main areas are still the areas with the best cost-effectiveness and profit-loss ratio among market investments.”

"all in all……"

Su Yu paused and continued: "Although the market is dynamic and unpredictable, the selection of main funds and the formation of main market opportunities are the areas where the market's money-making effect is easiest to break through. Observe carefully. There are traces to follow.”

"Even though our information channels, market analysis, and understanding capabilities are not as good as some large institutions with deep backgrounds."

"But in the process of trading, behind the string of numbers, there is a huge flow of funds that cannot be deceived."

"With the investment of real money, every huge capital choice has its own logic and purpose."

"This is the meaning of our market tracking, and it is also one of the underlying logics we follow in market analysis and opportunity search."

"Thank you, Mr. Su, for your advice." After listening to Su Yu's analysis, Zhu Tianyang was deeply moved. He seemed to understand some trading logic and market analysis logic that he had not figured out before, and he couldn't help but express his gratitude from the bottom of his heart.

In the trading room, other traders were deeply moved by Su Yu's words.

At the same time... I also felt extremely happy.

After all, for them, being able to get personal guidance from Su Yu, a legendary figure in the financial market, to deepen their understanding of trading and improve their true abilities is more important than a simple bonus.

And in fact, the competition for the positions of traders and analysts at ‘Yuhang Investment’ is so fierce.

In addition to the generous salary package offered by Yuhang Investment, the most important reason is that after joining the company, everyone is eager to get some guidance from Su Yu, the top hot money boss in the market and a legendary domestic private equity fund manager, so that they can truly improve themselves. own abilities and future development.

Along with short internal communication and market analysis.

When Su Yu looked back and focused his attention on the market prices of the two cities, the time had passed 11:30 and the market prices of the two cities were frozen.

I saw that after violent fluctuations, it finally closed at noon.

The Shanghai Index returned to below 2230 points and closed at 2225.79 points, up 0.37%, while the Shenzhen Index and ChiNext Index returned to near the opening points, maintaining a slight decline, and after the entire shock pattern in the morning In the two cities, the volume shrank significantly year-on-year yesterday, and the trading volume was much clearer.

Apart from index performance, of course.

The conceptual and industry sectors in the two cities also performed relatively mediocrely.

Even the two core themes of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', which have attracted great market attention, all fell back at noon after rising sharply during the one-hour trading period in the morning. Many core hot topics in the mid- and large-cap markets Stocks are back near their early opening prices.

However, the overall performance of the two core main lines is somewhat unsatisfactory.

However, many small-cap concept stocks in the field are performing brilliantly under the full attack of hot money from all walks of life, and they are not inferior to yesterday's state when the market made a full counterattack.

Among them, Beixin Road and Bridge, Shibei High-tech, Shanghai Sanmao, Pudong Construction, High-tech Development, Shanghai Steel Union, Shanghai Construction Engineering... are all mainline concept stocks, and they are still strongly blocked in the market correction near noon. It has exceeded the daily limit and maintained a trend of two consecutive daily limit increases.

In general……

The situation throughout the morning was a bit like mid- and large-cap stocks and indexes working together.

The mainline concept stocks dominated by hot money continue to gather the market's money-making effect, and they have appeared on the stage one after another, gradually becoming the protagonist of the market drama.