Chapter 396 Opportunities and Risks!

"Okay!" Li Meng responded and immediately issued instructions to the traders.

As her order was issued, as time went by, the market call auction trend still maintained a very exciting state. The number of red market stocks in the two cities also remained near 90%. Jian' also showed no signs of heavy volume.

Even traders, under the instructions given by Li Meng, placed orders one after another, and actively sold a lot of chips on the trading market of many stocks with the main concept of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' that opened sharply higher. Its impact on the outcome of the disk is also minimal.

"Today's market, the buying and selling orders are really strong." Seeing that his traders' placing orders and selling orders during the call auction did not have a significant impact on the market of the two markets, Li Meng paused and couldn't help but sigh again, " I feel that both the market's bullish sentiment and the funds that follow the trend are stronger than the market performance during yesterday's call auction. I have to say...it does feel like a bull market!"

Su Yu chuckled and responded: "After the positive stimulation of the 'New Country Nine', as well as the market continued to hold high yesterday, and the trend of continuous breakthroughs of the big positive line was stimulated, today's opening, the overall long sentiment and the ability to follow the trend to undertake funding are stronger than yesterday. , which is also reasonable.”

"But this situation probably won't last long."

"After all, the current range of the index is already an area where the market is heavily locked up."

"As the market's bullish sentiment and expectations reach their peak, and as profit taking and floating hold-up orders increase over time, the long and short forces on the market may reverse again with just a small external factor."

"This external factor..." Li Mengmeng thought for a while and said, "It should refer to the factor that you mentioned before, the news of 'IPO restarting again', right?"

Su Yu responded: "It is not just this one factor. With expectations and emotions getting higher and higher, and with most investors already having considerable expectations for the 'bull market' market pattern, as long as the market volume can Changes, as well as breakthroughs at key points, a slight decline, and situations that are somewhat less than expected, then... the current hot investment sentiment will quickly ebb, and the current consistent long situation in the market will reappear. Differentiation.”

"Even if the market news is good, there will be no negative impact in the short term."

"In the short term, it is impossible for the market's incremental funds to maintain a rapid upward trend and continue to support the continued breakthroughs of the index and related mainline stocks. In other words... it will always take time for market sentiment and confidence to fully recover, and it will continue to ferment and However, during this period, the speed of accumulation of profit-taking and floating holding chips on the market is far greater than the expansion speed of incremental funds."

"In other words, as the market develops, time goes by."

"The potential selling power on the market is far greater than the market's ability to accept it."

"In this way, all it takes is a crack in the market's unanimous bullish sentiment, and the next market divergence will come, and the current market capacity will definitely not be able to handle it."

"The reason why the market is performing so strongly now is that it seems that the willingness and power to follow the trend of funds are very strong."

“That’s because under the unanimous bullish sentiment, profit-taking on the market, and the investor group who are not too deep in this position, or are slightly unblocked, they still have the idea of ​​holding on to raising funds and waiting for gains. Once the sentiment drops and differences emerge, and the idea of ​​this part of the investor group to wait for gains gradually disappears, the selling force in the market will increase rapidly, thus significantly suppressing the market."

"Yeah!" Li Meng nodded in response, "From the analysis of the chip structure on the market, there is a high probability that the market will develop like this in the future."

"Master, so, at 2,500 points, there is a high probability that there will be no chance?" Liu Yuan answered.

Su Yu responded: "It depends on the market's follow-up volume and the changes in the news. If the turnover of the two cities can still increase month-on-month, and there are no unexpected major negative impacts on the news, then You can still imagine that the index hits 2,500 points, but if you want to stand firm, it is still very difficult and very difficult when there are no other mainline market trends that can perfectly take over the emotions, funds, and money-making effects of the short-term speculation of "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reform" to end the recession. hard."

Shanghai Composite Index 2,500 points, as the dividing line between bulls and bears in the market, there is great pressure to break through.

There has been no substantial change in the current market funding, relying only on short-term expectations and emotional support, and other main lines in the market have not revealed obvious investment opportunities, making it impossible to deepen and sustain the money-making effect of the market. This situation... ...If we want to truly break through 2,500 points, completely reverse the view of the market as a bear market, and establish comprehensive bull market confidence, it is not just a dream, but at least it is a very unlikely thing.

"Hey, that's such a pity." Liu Yuan sighed slightly when she heard Su Yu's answer.

Su Yu smiled and said, "It's no pity. Temporary pessimism does not mean long-term pessimism. If you look at the timeline to six months, one year, or two years, the overall trend is gradually getting better." Yes, after all, the macro-economy is recovering. Emerging industries dominated by 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain', as well as traditional industries dominated by 'infrastructure', 'finance', 'consumption', etc., are all showing signs of improvement. With new vitality and demand, and with inflation falling, the central bank is playing more and more cards. In the future, the liquidity of the entire domestic financial environment is bound to gradually increase, so... looking at the short-term trend, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is on the rise. The bull-bear line of 2,500 points is not easy, but looking at the long-term trend, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index stands above 2,500 points, leading the market to a comprehensive bull market, and the basic investment logic and related development opportunities have all appeared."

"Again……"

Su Yu paused for a while, looked around at all the traders in the trading room again, and then said: "Look at the long term and the short term. When analyzing the market, you must take a long-term view and know which stage of the long-term trend the current market is in. But when it comes to specific transactions, you must focus on the present, understand the dynamic changes in emotions and chip structure on the market, and find the correct buying and selling points, so as not to lose your cool at any time and make wrong trading and trading decisions.”

"Yeah, I understand." Liu Yuan nodded in response, feeling somewhat touched in her heart.

"Boss, according to your statement, in fact, the two main market trends of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' are just the first wave of major market trends, right?" After listening to Su Yu's analysis, Wang Can thought for a moment Yes, he answered and asked, "Are we just reducing our positions to reduce costs, not clearing them?"

Su Yu said with a smile: "In terms of macroeconomic development, after a short-term swing, the country has now continued to firmly adhere to the domestic demand development route of 'government-led investment' as the orientation and the main direction of 'urbanization construction', and has proposed The policy of 'mixed reform of state-owned enterprises and deepening reform of enterprises' will naturally not be the main line of short-term speculation."

“At the current stage, ‘infrastructure’ and ‘state-owned enterprise reform’ are speculating on the benefits and expectations of macro policy shifts.”

“In other words, the current rebound in the two main market markets is just a pure emotional reaction. The main uptrend stage where fundamentals have reversed and performance has exploded has not even opened the curtain yet. Naturally, it cannot be said that the main market is hype. Completely over.”

"According to the policy implementation, the industry fundamentals will change, demand will explode, and performance growth will be the transmission route."

"The rebound in performance of core stocks in the fields of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' that have benefited will be reflected at least in the second half of the year and next year."

“So, there are two core themes of ‘infrastructure’ and ‘state-owned enterprise reform’.”

"Even after this round of emotional hype ends, there will still be great investment opportunities when the chip structure in these two areas stabilizes again."

"Just like the two core main lines of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain'."

“As long as the macro direction of policy support remains unchanged and market demand remains unchanged, then... investment opportunities will always exist. It’s just that in terms of investment timing and profit margin, in the short-term market trend, there will be greater difference."

"Understood!" Wang Can said, "The current mainline hype of 'state-owned enterprise reform' and 'infrastructure' is just like last year's 'Internet Finance', 'Mobile Internet', and 'Smartphone Industry Chain'. They are just appetizers. The big market trends are still to come.”

"You are right to understand that way." Su Yu smiled and replied.

"Then how low should our initial reduction target be?" Li Meng asked again.

Su Yu thought for a while and said: "Get rid of the weak and retain the strong, and gradually reduce the stock chips we currently hold in the fields of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' to less than 50%! Although these two main lines of market trends, there will be more in the future There are considerable investment opportunities and room for speculation. However, after the short-term decline of market sentiment, if we want to re-consolidate our chips, establish a chip platform, and reconstruct the internal chip structure, this adjustment time will not be short. We do not need to enter the adjustment stage after these two main lines. , continue to invest heavily here and waste other investment opportunities.”

As an asset management institution, fully seizing market investment opportunities, choosing optimal investment strategies and investment routes, and maximizing excess profits from the market are what fund managers like them should do. Only by doing this... can we be worthy of it. Give them your money and trust their investors.

Otherwise, if they do not pursue excess market profits, they and the company will lose the value of their existence.

"Okay, I understand!" Li Meng responded.

At the same time, the final reduction target was communicated to other traders in the trading room.

Following everyone's discussion and Su Yu's on-the-spot analysis, at this time...the market's trading time has passed 9:20, and the two cities are ushering in the real call auction session where orders cannot be cancelled.

After the first five minutes of collective bidding...

After a large number of pending order funds were withdrawn, the overall market situation was slightly lower than the market situation before 9:20. There were nearly 2,000 stocks in the two cities, and the number of red stocks dropped from around 90% to 85%. %, and on the market of each popular mainline stock, the volume of call auction orders intended to be matched has increased compared with before, showing a slight increase in volume.

But overall, the investment sentiment and fund following effect of the entire market are still very strong.

In particular, in the two main areas of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', stocks in various concept sectors and industry sectors, except for the suspended stocks, the rest of the stocks, as high as 97% of the number of stocks, achieved a high opening in the red, among which... Popular leading stocks such as Beixin Road and Bridge, Beijiang Communications Construction, Shibei High-tech, and Chongqing Development either hit the daily limit, or opened higher by more than 7 or 8 points, and the buying orders on the market also reached thousands. More than 10,000 funds.

Moreover, it is rare to see such 'infrastructure' as 'Huaguo Construction, Huaguo Railway Construction, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo MCC, China North Locomotive \u0026 Rolling Stock Corporation, China South Locomotive \u0026 Rolling Stock Corporation, Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., Conch Cement', etc. Mid- and large-cap blue-chip stocks in the field of state-owned enterprise reform are also showing a strong trend of opening higher at this moment, with the opening range increasing by more than 2%.

As for the other main areas of the two cities, such as the relatively strong 'Internet Finance', 'Shanghai Free Trade Zone', 'Mobile Internet', and 'Smartphone Industry Chain', and the relatively weak 'Military Industry, Consumption, Nonferrous Metals, and Coal , finance' and other fields, although the bullish sentiment and the volume of follow-up funds are not as good as the two main areas of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', they also show a trend of opening slightly higher, not as high as yesterday. Extreme differentiation.

Of course, this is basically a wasteful opening call auction situation.

It also illustrates the consistency of market expectations and emotions, as well as the reluctance of investors holding shares on the market.

At 9:21, the collective bidding situation in the two cities remained stable. All industry sectors and concept sectors in the entire market remained in the red, with no one falling. Among them, the two leading stocks of 'Beixin Road and Bridge and Beijiang Communications Construction' continued to maintain a one-word price. At the daily limit, the sell orders on the market were 3,700 and 4,600 respectively. The attitude of following the trend and rushing to raise funds is clearly visible.

At 9:22, the number of red stocks in the two cities continued to fall slightly to 83%. The securities sector that had a sudden change yesterday saw a decline in green stocks, becoming the only industry sector and concept sector to fall in the two cities, but 'infrastructure', Stocks in the two main areas of 'state-owned enterprise reform', as well as popular stocks, are still making rapid progress, with call auctions rising higher and higher. At the same time, there is no obvious sign of rapid expansion in market volume.

At 9:23, the trading volume of two popular core leading stocks, Beixin Road and Bridge and Beijiang Communications Construction, exploded to more than 10,000 lots, but they still maintained a one-line daily limit trend. At the same time, the non-ferrous metals and coal sectors Because of the poor future performance expectations, it has become the second and third green market industry sector and concept sector after the securities sector.

At 9:24, the relevant weighted stocks in the main areas of 'infrastructure', 'state-owned enterprise reform', and popular concept stocks that have always maintained a strong call auction state finally showed signs of significant volume on the market, 'Shibei High-tech, Pudong Development' , Shanghai Construction Engineering, Financial Street, Gemdale Group, China Fortune Land Development, Kumho Group, Bayi Steel' and other popular concept stocks, the gains began to fall slightly.

Finally, when the time moved to 9:25, the collective bidding in the two cities ended.

It can be seen that the growth rates of the construction decoration, building materials, real estate, steel, public transportation and other industry sectors in the two main areas of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' are all fixed at more than 1%, leading the gains of all industry sectors in the two cities. Others of... a growth stock line centered on 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain', such as 'electronic information', 'communication technology', 'Internet software application', 'Internet software development', 'film and television media', etc. In the industry sector, after opening higher, the increase was second only to the industry sectors in the two main line-related fields of 'state-owned enterprise reform' and 'infrastructure'. The remaining industry sectors in the two cities basically hovered within the range of opening higher by 0.4% and falling by 0.2%.

As for the index.

The Shanghai Index opened higher by 0.73%, fixed at 2441.77 points, while the Shenzhen Index and ChiNext Index opened higher by 0.52% and 0.49% respectively.

In terms of individual stocks, especially the popular stocks that have attracted a lot of market attention.

Beixin Road and Bridge opened at the daily limit, and the entire call auction had a transaction volume of nearly 10 million, which was slightly smaller than yesterday; Beixin Communications Construction also opened at the daily limit, and the entire call auction had a transaction volume of about 4.7 million, which is considered to be the market sentiment of the two cities. , the most consistent high-level stock on the board with the most consistent capital performance, and also the strongest concept stock in the two main areas of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'; Shibei High-tech, Shanghai Construction Engineering, Gemdale Group, China Fortune Land Development, etc. Popular concept stocks have opened higher by 2% to 5%. Although the strong state has not changed, the call auction trading volume on the market is strong, but there are obvious signs of expansion. Generally speaking, the market sentiment and the funds to follow the trend are consistent. , not as good as everyone imagined before the market.

The popular areas of ‘infrastructure’, ‘state-owned enterprise reform’, and large-cap stocks.

Huaguo Construction, Huaguo Communications Construction, Huaguo China Railway, Huaguo Railway Construction, Huaguo MCC and other "Hua" stocks opened significantly higher, but the call auction trading volume of the entire disk remained stable. It is stable, and even compared with yesterday, there is a significant shrinkage.

Other non-core main line popularity and popular stocks.

Stocks such as LeTV, Wangsu Technology, Oriental Fortune, Huake Financial, Huayi Brothers, etc. opened higher and outperformed several major indexes. However, the trading volume on the market was strong and also showed a shrinking state, and the transactions were In the order details, there are not many large orders of more than 100 lots.

Faced with this opening scene...

The vast group of retail investors in the market are naturally excited and excited.

However, many major institutional investors and keen ones who had stronger expectations before have frowned slightly at this moment, always feeling that the market performance is still slightly below expectations.

"Not even a single point of increase in opening higher?" After the call auction ended, during the brief suspension time before 9:30, in the Magic City, inside Zexi Investment Company and in the fund trading room, Zhou Kan looked at this The opening performance of the two cities made me somewhat disappointed. "With such strong emotions and bullish desires, the index did not even reach 2450 points, and... the entire call auction volume of the two cities was even smaller than yesterday." ”

Xu Xiang took a look at the overall opening status of the two cities and said: "From the perspective of volume performance, the investor groups and overall funds following the off-site, and the market sentiment performance are quite different. It seems... In terms of incremental capital capacity, we are almost reaching the short-term limit.”

"Fortunately, the market sentiment is highly consistent, and many funds holding positions on the market have chosen to lock up and wait and see."

"This led to the entire collective bidding stage. Although the volume of energy explosion was not enough, the index, various industry sectors, and various concept markets all showed up, achieving a substantially higher opening trend."

“Let’s take a look at how the market performs after it opens…”

Xu Xiang paused and continued: "If today's market volume cannot be increased, and the index shows a decline in such a good mood, then our expectations will begin to decrease. At the same time, everyone's optimistic estimates With 2,500 points, you may not be able to get there.”

"Yeah!" Zhou Kan responded and replied, "However, the two main areas of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' still performed very well. The two stocks of 'Beixin Road and Bridge and Beijiang Communications Construction' were able to perform well today. The daily limit opened, and there was no significant volume increase on the market, which was slightly higher than expected."

He originally thought that there was a high probability that these two checks would continue to change hands at a huge price, and they would open at 5 or 6 points higher.

Unexpectedly... As a result, both checks opened at the daily limit.

In this way, the unexpected opening of these two checks, especially the Beixin Road and Bridge, which continues to open up market speculation space, is very conducive to the continued speculation of the two main concepts of "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reform".

Xu Xiang nodded slightly and said: "The trend of these two checks is indeed slightly beyond expectations. The two core main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'... it seems... have indeed entered the main rise that is strongly consistent with expectations and sentiment." At this stage, you can hold the shares for a few days with peace of mind and enjoy the profits of this period."

"What does the boss mean... is that we continue to lock up the position?" Zhou Kan asked.

Xu Xiang nodded and responded: "Continue to lock up the position. Although the overall market volume is currently showing some minor problems, the risk has not been highlighted."

"Okay!" Zhou Kan responded.

Then he put down the worry that had just risen in his heart, and turned his attention back to the two markets, waiting for the official opening of trading in the two markets.

At the same time, inside the Yanjing and Chenghua Public Fund Companies, the main fund trading room.

Fund manager Gong Tiancheng looked at the index that opened higher and hit a new rebound high, as well as the core hot stocks in the two major fields of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' that were making breakthroughs with great momentum. He looked a little ugly and couldn't help it. He sighed and ordered Zhou Qiang, his assistant and trading team leader, to say: "The entire market capital is still further converging in the fields of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'. It seems that as the market's main line of breaking through the bull-bear line, it is still possible." It has to focus on the two major areas of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'."

"Hey... we followed the position yesterday and entered the securities field. Looking at it now, it was really a big mistake!"

"You shouldn't be so smart!"

"In this wave, one buys and one sells. Not only did I miss the market, I also lost a lot of high-quality chips, such as 'Beixin Road and Bridge, Beijiang Communications Construction'. I want to chase them now, but I can't get them back." "

"Mr. Gong, let's..." Hearing the boss's sigh, Zhou Qiang asked hurriedly.

Gong Tiancheng was silent for a moment, gritted his teeth, and said: "Since the choice was wrong, we must correct it in time. Let's clear out the stock chips we follow in the securities field after the market opens, and then buy all the vacated positions." "Infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', the two core main lines of stocks with existing positions, are going like this... It is obvious that the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' will accelerate their rise."

"Okay!" Zhou Qiang responded and quickly issued instructions to the traders.

In fact, he also believes that it is enough to follow the trends of the two main market trends of "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reform". There are really no opportunities for finance and securities for the time being. After all, from a macro perspective, currency liquidity cannot be seen again for the time being. Loose possibilities.

Of course, the anxiety of Chenghua Fund is different from the worries of Zexi Investment.

At this moment, facing the obvious signs of rising trends in the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', companies such as 'Minghui Capital', 'Anzhao Fund', 'Jingda Investment', and 'Huashang Securities Proprietary Investment Department' '...and so on, a series of medium and large asset management institutions that have heavily invested in the core stocks of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', as well as 'Yuhang Siji Road', 'Chunhui Road', 'Hongqiao Road', 'Shenzhen Shihuaxin Road', 'Shaoxing Branch', 'Yanjing Beiwai Street'... and other top hot money players in the market who are highly involved in the main line speculation of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' are all excited and excited. We are looking forward to the opening of the two cities, and we are looking forward to the two core market lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', which have formed a clear upward trend, to lead the index to continue to hit new rebound highs and break through 2,500 points in one fell swoop.

This bullish sentiment is extremely enthusiastic and attracts the attention of the majority of investors.

At 9:30, the two cities ushered in the official continuous bidding transaction.

I saw that the time had just passed 9:30, and the stock prices of nearly 2,000 stocks in the two cities began to jump again. Affected by the trend of the two leading stocks of 'Beixin Road and Bridge and Beijiang Communications Construction', the price limit was sealed. Beijing High-tech, Shanghai Construction Engineering, Bayi Steel, China Fortune Land Development, Kumho Group, Huaxin Cement, and other popular concept stocks of "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reform" have all received substantial funding from countless funds, and their stock prices have been rising sharply. Lift.

wap.