Chapter 424: Novices die from chasing highs, veterans die from chasing lows!

Especially the popular stocks.

Concept stocks that have attracted much attention, such as Beixin Road and Bridge, Beijiang Communications Construction, Kumho Group, China Fortune Land Development, and Gemdale Group, almost all reached their limit yesterday, and Beixin Road and Bridge has also emerged from the ground-to-floor situation. Today, it is All stocks stalled, and all ended with a sharp decline.

Among them, Beixin Road and Bridge and Beijiang Communications Construction, two core leading stocks, finally closed at the limit.

It completely eliminated the confidence and opportunities for active funds in the market to continue to be long in the market and continue to speculate on the short-term market. This also caused the money-losing effect of the market to expand rapidly in the late trading, annihilating the dissatisfaction that had just gathered in the hearts of the majority of investors yesterday. Invest less with confidence.

"Fortunately, we didn't hesitate. The market... has really fallen back again."

Seeing the closing situation of the two cities, in the Shenzhen market at this moment, inside Xiniu Fund Company, in the main fund trading room, the trading team leader Mou Zhengxing said with great luck after a brief review: "No matter which main line, all It failed to maintain a sustained rebound trend, and the two core themes of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform' have become the leading sectors that have been abandoned by various funds in the market on a large scale. It seems that the market adjustment is far from over. Ah, and the market's 'high-low switching' has not shown any signs, and there is no clear other main line market that can replace the two main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform'."

"Well!" After hearing Mou Zhengxing's words, Fang Xinsheng, the company's main fund manager, nodded slightly and continued, "It is true that the market adjustment is far from over. Today's market trend has not only shrunk the volume, but also the market price. Development has completely stalled.”

"While the early popular market trends of 'infrastructure', 'state-owned enterprise reform', 'Internet finance' and 'Shanghai Free Trade Zone' are in a state of adjustment, the funds coming out of these major fields are still like headless flies. We haven’t found a suitable direction to attack.”

"At the same time, there are no signs of market speculation in other main areas of the market."

"This kind of market trend development is not a good sign for the current market. Next... we may have to be prepared for a net worth retracement and a long-term war."

"Will the next market fall into the market conditions at the beginning of the year again?" After hearing Fang Xinsheng's rather pessimistic analysis of the market outlook, Liu Xin, the general manager of the company, frowned slightly and asked, "Listen to Manager Fang What do you mean, the market will adjust for a long time?"

Fang Xinsheng nodded slightly and said: "There is a high probability that it will take a long time to adjust. Once the market trend reverses, it will be difficult to recover in the short term. What's more, the current market news and sentiment are completely bearish. , the market's investment confidence is gradually disintegrating, and in addition to the major market main lines of the market, no other main line market can take over the funds withdrawn from the two core main lines of 'infrastructure' and 'state-owned enterprise reform', making the market complete The switching between high and low positions of the main line market allows the market to continue.”

"In other words, there is no relay continuation of the main market trend."

"Without the continuous support of the large active capital group in the market, the market's continuous profit-making effect and liquidity will gradually weaken."

“And once the money-making effect and liquidity continue to decline, they will gradually weaken.”

"This means that the market's willingness to accept funds from all walks of life will continue to further decrease, so... the market situation will naturally not get better under such circumstances."

"So, I guess..."

Fang Xinsheng paused and continued: "Since the market cannot reverse the decline quickly and at the same time open up a new main line market situation and continue the market's continuous profit-making effect, it is difficult to avoid a long-term adjustment trend, at least... the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index A downward adjustment will most likely retest the support effect at 2200 points."

"In this case...then we can only switch from offense to defense." Liu Xin sighed softly under Fang Xinsheng's analysis and said, "The only thing we are happy about is that the market did not fall directly in one breath, but instead After the bad news materialized, it gave us a strong rebound and gave us a more suitable opportunity to reduce our positions and take profits on a large scale.”

"That's true." Fang Xinsheng nodded and said, "So we should stay awake and stop being greedy for profits from this position. We must reduce our positions decisively."

"Mr. Fang, do you think the 2200 point can be maintained if the index goes down?" After a moment of silence, Mou Zhengxing continued to ask.

Fang Xinsheng thought for a while and said: "The support of 2200 points is still quite strong in the minds of the majority of investors in the market, but whether it can be maintained, no one knows at the moment. After all, the index is far away from 2200 points at the moment. , it is said that it is far away, it is said that it is not close, and in the entire market, there are no signs of the market that can take over the macro main lines such as "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reform" at a low level. Whether it can be sustained, it is really It’s hard to say.”

"Of course, guessing the top or bottom actually means nothing."

Fang Xinsheng paused for a while and then said: "The market trend is affected by various aspects of capital, emotion, and news, and only after everyone forms a concerted effort to finally come out, it is uncertain and unpredictable at the same time. Nature, what we can really do is to make rough predictions based on changes in capital, sentiment, and news, and adjust trading strategies in accordance with market trends.”

"We cannot accurately predict the future market, nor can we tell in advance where the top is, where the bottom is, and where the market will reverse."

"However, we can change the market through changes in capital, sentiment, and news."

"To gain insight into market trends."

"That is to say, we cannot judge the market, but when the trend of market changes comes out, we can feel it through trading experience, market analysis, etc. Just like at this moment, most investors in the market can I feel that the ability of active funds in the market to follow the trend is constantly weakening, the upward power of the main market trend and index is getting weaker and weaker, the profit-making effect has weakened, and the money-losing effect has increased significantly."

"Actually, investment is not necessarily something that requires such precise judgment."

Fang Xinsheng pondered for a moment and said very meaningfully: "Sometimes, hazy judgment is also very important in Mohu investment."

After hearing Fang Xinsheng's words, Mou Zhengxing thought about it for a while, but still felt a little confused.

In terms of investment and trading, he is far inferior to Fang Xinsheng in terms of professional experience, various macro and micro economic analyses, and human nature and emotional games.

Therefore, when it comes to analysis and communication, he usually adopts an attitude of asking for advice.

Of course, Fang Xinsheng basically had nothing to hide from him. As long as he asked, and Fang Xinsheng could answer, he would basically answer it responsibly.

"Mohu is right." Liu Xin had heard of this investment strategy before and said with a smile, "This is also a kind of investment wisdom. After all, you just said that the results of the market are often the result of the combined efforts of market funds. As a result, in everyone's common understanding, Mohu's correctness is often the most recognized by the majority of investors in the market, which is also the most fundamental opportunity for the market to occur. "

When Fang Xinsheng heard Liu Xin's answer, he was quite surprised and said: "Mr. Liu is very right. To put it bluntly, the fundamental logic of investment and trading is the game between cognition and human nature. Cognition determines market pricing, and the game of human nature. It determines the final hype value of the market.”

"The so-called correctness of Mohu is to find the common ground among the perceptions of most investor groups."

"As long as you understand this, it will be easy to find new investment opportunities amid changes in market conditions."

"It makes sense." Liu Xin nodded, "Manager Fang is still great, okay... the next trading strategy will be based on the results of your analysis. We still can't be anxious about everything. The performance of the 'Yu Hang Series' fund Myth, as long as we don’t make mistakes and make fewer mistakes, we will always catch up one day.”

The performance of the company's main funds continues to be underperformed by the two main funds of the 'Yuhang Series'.

Although Fang Xinsheng never complained about this matter, Liu Xin knew that Fang Xinsheng was somewhat grudged in his heart and wanted to surpass the other party.

After all, it makes no one feel comfortable when it comes to "when Yu is born, why is Liang born"?

"The scale of our company's main fund is much smaller than the two main funds of the 'Yuhang Series'." Mou Zhengxing continued, "The performance of domestic private equity fund products with a scale of tens of billions has never continued to explode. However, coupled with the limited liquidity and capital capacity of the market, I estimate that it will be impossible for the 'Yu Hang Series' funds to replicate the performance growth of last year."

"As long as their performance growth rate slows down, it won't be too difficult for us to catch up with them."

"At least, we have achieved a good performance ranking in the first half of this year. If we can continue to maintain it in the second half of the year, we really don't know who will be ranked first at the end of the year."

Fang Xinsheng smiled and said: "I don't have such a strong desire to win. I just feel that as fund managers, we must have a decent conscience and be worthy of the fund investors who trust us. As long as we perform well and do our best, If we do what we should do, we will achieve something no matter in terms of scale or reputation. As long as we are worthy of the fund investors who invest in us, then the investors will definitely not let us down."

"President Fang still has a great structure." Mou Zhengxing smiled and praised sincerely.

And when several key asset management figures at Xiniu Fund Company held internal discussions based on the closing results of the two markets, and then made new trading strategy adjustments.

This time in the magic city, it is inside the "Principal Financial", a public fund company.

In the principal's 'Future Investment Mixed Selection' fund product trading room, the fund manager Zhao Zhongming, who originally reduced his position and then significantly increased his position yesterday to get back a lot of chips, his eyelids jumped and he was a little angry about today's market trend: " It’s tempting again, this market… is really a slap in the face.”

"Today, the core popular leading stocks in the entire market have almost all been wiped out, and the market has not emerged from the more obvious sustained profit-making effect sector." Beside Zhao Zhongming, the trading team leader Yi Xiaopeng responded, "Mr. Zhao, today's situation is very It’s not good. I feel that it will be difficult for the market to regain its previous losses. If the news is negative again today, or if the external market trend is bad at night, there is a high probability that there will be another massacre tomorrow.”

"Hey, I was careless." Zhao Zhongming also knew that the risk points of the market were beginning to reappear, and he sighed helplessly, "At critical times, the more you want chips, the harder it is to stay calm, 'infrastructure', 'state-owned enterprise reform' 'With these two core themes, we have indeed acted a little impulsively."

Previously, funds did not have much leverage on these two main market lines.

This also resulted in the fund not making much profit when the two main market trends of "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reform" continued to explode rapidly.

In this way, this caused some mental imbalance in Zhao Zhongming's heart.

This also led to the situation like yesterday, when the market prices of the two core main lines of "infrastructure" and "state-owned enterprise reform" rebounded rapidly. When the king returned, Zhao Zhongming was worried that the two main lines of market would never look back and repeat the previous continuous short squeeze. situation, so we urgently followed up with a large-scale pursuit of positions.

But I never thought that this was not a buying point, but a huge bull trap.

Today, except for part of the positions he had pursued in the afternoon to reduce the position, all the positions he pursued yesterday were locked up, and he lost nearly 10 million in profits. As a result, the net value of the fund not only did not go up further, but also fell at a faster speed. There was a retracement below.

"Fortunately, we didn't follow up too much." Yi Xiaopeng responded, "If we stop the loss in time, the loss should not be very big."

Zhao Zhongming carefully reviewed the market situation and pondered for a long time, but could not find a solid logic to continue to be bullish on the market outlook. He finally responded: "We can only stop the loss in time, continue to adjust the strategy tomorrow, lighten up the position, this wave of bargain hunting... … Let’s learn a market lesson.”

As the saying goes, "Novices die from chasing highs, and veterans die from buying lows." Zhao Zhongming finally realized this sentence deeply after giving away nearly tens of millions of funds and losing money. At the same time, regarding "no matter how excellent the chips are, no matter how greedy the chips are, He also had a very deep understanding of this sentence, "You must also be patient enough."

When many retail investor groups, private equity, public investment institutions, and even hot money groups are re-adjusting their trading strategies in response to the outcome of the market situation, and are significantly bearish on the market...

At 5:30 p.m., the rankings of the two cities were refreshed.

There are only 21 stocks in the two cities on the list. Among them, the stocks on the list are mostly distributed in the core main areas of the market such as 'infrastructure', 'state-owned enterprise reform', 'Internet finance', and the 'Shanghai Free Trade Zone', and many of them are on the list. It is a popular stock with high market attention and popularity.

Among the stocks on the list, the trading seats are disclosed.

Almost all of the main funds showed a net outflow, and most of the so-called top hot money and institutional investors in the market were on the selling side.

Of course, it attracted everyone's attention.

It is an important trading seat belonging to the main fund of the 'Yuhang Series' when the news that the 'Yuhang No. 3' fund product was successfully launched, with a scale of 10 billion, and was sold out in half a day, swept the entire domestic asset management and financial circles. , that is, the 'Fortune Road' seat once again appeared on the dragon and tiger lists of the two cities.

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