Chapter 707: Is the expected good thing still good?

"Next Monday?" Zhou Kan was stunned. "Isn't next Monday going to be good for Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect? And today is Friday, after today's market closes, and during the weekend, there may be other good news.

Didn't I remember what the boss said before?

During the 'bull market' phase, time is often on the side of the market's bullish investors.

As long as the market's risk appetite for investment and speculation is increasing, as long as the market's money-making effect is still at a hot and strong stage, and OTC capital groups are still pouring into the market.

So, even during the suspension period, there is no obvious good news in the market news.

As investors' desires and emotions brought about by the money-making effect of the market itself, the overall emotional response of the market should also continue to change in the long direction.

According to this logic of thinking...

As long as today's market conditions are not bad, the entire market can still maintain a relatively good continuous profit-making effect.

So, the market performance next Monday should not be bad. Why... the boss actually said that today's market conditions will most likely not be bad, but should we really worry about next Monday? "

Xu Xiang's eyes were bright as he stared at the market of the two cities. Hearing Zhou Kan's question, he smiled and said: "I said this before, but the specific situation still needs to be analyzed in detail. Everyone knows that next Monday, November 17th is the day when the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect is launched, and it is also the day when A50 Index Futures and China Securities 500 Index Futures are officially listed for trading. So...according to the logic of market reaction to expectations, everyone knows the expectations. It’s good, is that still good?”

Hearing Xu Xiang's words, Zhou Kan suddenly had a flash of inspiration in his mind, understood, and responded: "Since it is a benefit that everyone knows, then once this benefit really comes to fruition, it will become 'all the benefits come out'" It’s bad.”

"Yes!" Xu Xiang nodded, "Whether it is the main line market, concept market, or individual stock market performance, what is speculated is always expectations, not the fulfillment of expectations. When the expectations are fulfilled, it means that the stock price often drops. It’s over, it’s time to take profit.

Therefore, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has been rising continuously due to short selling in the past two days.

Moreover, the overall volume performance and the performance of the two financing balances are getting stronger and stronger.

Obviously, this is the overdraft of these major positive expectations on Monday, and the expected positive benefits have been exhausted in advance.

Under such a trend, once these major expected benefits come to fruition, the market will not have the support of subsequent positive expectations, and the upward pressure it will face will quickly increase.

That's why I said that the market situation next Monday may not be optimistic.

Of course, before that.

Before the positive expectations are realized, whether it is the group of funds buying the bottom on Tuesday or the group of funds that have followed up in the past two days and are rushing to take advantage of the positive expectations of the opening of the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" next Monday, there is a high probability that they will not reduce their positions and take profits in advance. Yes, after all, under sufficient "bull market" expectations, before the good news comes to fruition, the new investor group rushing in for the good news, as well as the incremental funds, can still continue to drive the market and promote the core mainline market.

With these strong incremental capital groups following the trend, it will benefit the market before the launch and will not be easily hit by profit taking. "

"It seems that today is only suitable for holding and reducing positions, not increasing positions." Zhou Kan said, "According to the logic of the boss's analysis... Do we need to reduce some positions and withdraw some profits at today's intraday high? What? How about using the short-term chips that were bought at the bottom to increase positions in the past two days and the profit-taking part?"

"Yes, yes." Xu Xiang said, "Let's see how the intraday trends of popular core concept stocks are after the official opening. If there is obvious stagflation or there is a big difference between long and short on the market, you can try to sell some chips and wait until After the subsequent corresponding stock price retracement, the chips will be taken back.

However, for small position trading, just do T.

Our two main funds focus on holding core weight stock chips in the securities and Internet finance sectors, so don’t move them.

Although I judge that the market on Monday is not optimistic.

There is a high probability that there will be a market trend in which "all good things turn out to be bad things".

However, in terms of medium and long-term thinking, the "bull market" pattern and "bull market" logic of the entire market are still continuing to ferment in depth.

That is, the mid- to long-term trend of the market is still firmly upward.

In this way, we must remain firm in our mid- to long-term position thinking. We cannot rush out of positions on a large scale just because we are greedy for short-term profits, and lose the core chips with great cost advantages. "

"Okay!" Zhou Kan nodded and said, "Don't worry, boss, I understand this!"

Regarding position strategies and trading strategies, he still knows very well which positions should be moved and which positions should not be moved.

And with the brief communication and analysis between the two.

At this time, the market's trading time has reached 9:25, and the collective bidding in the two cities has officially ended.

I saw a full ten minutes of collective bidding.

Compared with the market situation that was finally presented to the investors inside and outside the market at 9:15, it was obviously still a lot lower.

Take a closer look...

The Shanghai Stock Index opened higher at 51% and settled at 14 o'clock.

The Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the ChiNext Index opened 46% and 41% higher respectively, while the small and medium-sized index, which rose nearly 4% yesterday, only opened 35% higher. On the contrary, the A50, which performed worse than several major core indexes yesterday, The index opened higher at 61% at this moment, significantly stronger than the Shanghai Composite Index.

Except for the major indexes that opened higher.

Performance aspects of the market’s core main lines, popular industry sectors, and popular concept sectors.

I saw that a number of main line industry sectors and concept sectors that performed strongly yesterday, such as 'securities, Internet finance, military industry, film and television media, sub-new stocks, Shanghai Free Trade Zone, central and state-owned enterprise reform and reorganization', still led the two-day gain in the opening performance. market, and carries the power of the main active capital groups to follow suit during the collective bidding stage of the market.

Among them, the performance of core popular stocks and concept leading stocks in these main areas.

I saw that 'Huake Shuguang', the most popular stock in the two cities, still maintained the opening trend of the one-line daily limit, and during the entire collective bidding stage, a total of only more than 1 million funds were traded, and it still maintained an unlimited daily limit. , there is no sign of heavy volume breaking the market at all.

This illustrates the internal holdings of this check.

That is to say, the lucky investors who won the lottery are still obviously reluctant to sell the chips of this check.

Of course, everyone is so reluctant to sell that this stock has exceeded the expected 16-digit daily limit in a row. The institutions that continue to grab funds at the daily limit must be indispensable.

In addition to ‘Huake Dawn’, the check ‘Flush’ is the second most popular in the market.

The opening increase was fixed at 11%. Compared with its high opening limit at 9:15, it must have dropped significantly. However, compared with the general pre-market expectations of investors who paid attention to this check, this check can continue to rise. Opening more than 4 points is considered to be beyond everyone's expectations.

And this check is open 4 points higher.

Compared with yesterday, the trading volume of the entire collective bidding stage showed no obvious signs of enlargement.

This shows that the internal position holders of this check, in this position, are still relatively reluctant to sell the stock chips of this check. Even if they make a large profit, not many people will reduce their positions in a large amount to stop profits.

The third most popular item in the market is the check "Chengfei Integration".

This check has been on a downward trend for two consecutive days, and now, at this moment, it is opening slightly lower at 23%.

Although according to this opening form.

This check has basically escaped the fate of continuous falling limits.

However, its internal selling pressure has not eased, and this continued weaker performance than the market also shows that this check, near this position, has a high probability of not falling through. If the market is slightly weaker in the future, it should We cannot rule out the possibility that this check will continue to plummet.

Ranking fourth in market popularity is the check of ‘Western Securities’ in the securities sector.

Yesterday, 'Western Securities' broke out of the intraday daily limit trend of 13 points. Today, with the 'remaining power' of yesterday's daily limit, it also opened significantly higher. Its stock price was fixed at a 56% increase position and is still in the opening form. Leading the gains in securities stocks.

And this check is in the entire collective bidding trend.

Compared with yesterday and even the day before yesterday, the overall trading volume still shows no sign of obvious enlargement.

This shows that the investors who intervened in this stock yesterday, or even intervened in this stock in the early stage, and currently hold chips in this stock, have more expectations and expectations for this check, so there is no limit to quantity and energy. Further magnification revealed the same reluctance to sell.

Ranking fifth in market popularity is the check of ‘Blue Stone Reload’, which hit 23 consecutive daily limits in the early stage.

This check also achieved a high opening situation today.

Just comparing the checks of 'Huake Shuguang, Flush, and Western Securities', the high opening range of 'Blue Stone Heavy Equipment' is a little bit unsatisfactory. It only opened higher by 12%, and in the entire call auction performance, its market price The selling pressure is greater, and the difference between long and short is obviously more obvious than that of the other three popular leading stocks.

The sixth most popular stock in the market is the "Shanghai Sanmao" stock, which has exceeded three daily limits in a row and is part of the core concept of the "Shanghai Free Trade Zone".

After achieving three consecutive daily limits, this check still opened very strongly today.

It opened sharply higher at 11%.

However, although this check was opened at a large margin, the transaction volume during the entire collective bidding stage was also relatively large. There was less than 2.5 billion in circulation, and more than 70 million yuan was traded in just 10 minutes of collective bidding. This shows that in At this stock price position, the long-short divergence on the market has expanded rapidly.

It also shows that if you want to seal the check today, the pressure should not be as high as usual.

Either the differences turn into agreement, or they are directly killed by short-term profit taking.

The seventh most popular item in the market is the check of ‘China Airlines Heavy Machinery’ in the ‘military industry’ sector.

This check has also reached the daily limit for three consecutive trading days in the past three trading days. However, the opening increase of this check today is obviously not as good as that of the 'Shanghai Sanmao' check. It only opened 47% higher, and the entire collection The trading volume during the bidding stage shows signs of expansion.

This shows that there are active capital groups on the market and a large number of short-term capital groups.

The logical recognition of this check and the intensity of following the trend are not as good as the "Shanghai Sanmao" check.

The three stocks ranked eighth, ninth, and tenth in the market are Huajin Capital, Oriental Fortune, and Hengsheng Electronics respectively.

The circulation of these three stocks is in the tens of billions, and due to the suppression of large circulation, although the market is very popular, the high opening range is still significantly weaker than other popular stocks.

‘Hua Investment Capital’ opened higher at 06%, slightly exceeding the higher opening range of the securities sector index.

'Oriental Fortune' opened higher at 96%, and the trend of 'Flush' has once again widened the gap with similar stocks. However, the gap in market value between the two stocks is still close to double.

'Hengsheng Electronics' opened higher at 83%, slightly stronger than the Shanghai Index. The long-short differences on the market are more obvious. At the same time, the stock price elasticity and selling pressure are also more obvious compared with other popular stocks. Overall, The movement of this check is not as smooth as other popular stocks.

In addition to these ten popular stocks that have attracted much attention from market investor groups.

Other stocks that rank relatively low in popularity, such as China Railway, Huaguo Railway Construction, Shanghai Steel Union, Shanghai Construction Engineering, Huaxin Securities, Jinzheng Shares, Ciwen Media, LeTV, Huayi Brothers, Huace Film and Television, Yinjie Technology, Huaguo Software, Inspur Information, Internet Speed ​​Technology, Leman Optoelectronics...' and other popular stocks.

As far as the opening pattern is concerned, 90% also achieved high openings.

It's just that the range of higher openings was below the 5% increase, and there was no obvious gap.

"The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has opened at a new high for the year, but how do I feel that the support of this tiny gap is not so solid?" At 9:26, inside Yuhang, Yuhang Investment Company, the main fund trading room, fund trading Team leader Wang Can stared at the frozen market of the two markets for a moment, briefly sorted out the opening market patterns of each main line, couldn't help but sigh, and asked Zhao Lijun next to him, "Old Zhao, do you feel this way? ? I always feel that... with this form, after the market officially opens, the index will have to go back down to kill it!"

Zhao Lijun glanced at him sideways and responded with a smile: "The market has not opened much higher. It is possible to step back to cover this tiny gap. If you kill the market... it should be impossible. After all, it happened yesterday." After a wave of killing, a lot of profit orders were washed away. Although the market surged yesterday, the accumulated profit order chips were not many, and it should not be able to exert too much pressure on the overall market situation.

Also...

There are good things to come from the opening of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect next Monday, as well as the official listing and trading of A50 Index and China Securities 500 Index futures, as well as the possible good market macro news over the weekend. At this time point today, The market simply has no motivation to sell down.

There are a lot of funds holding positions on the market, as well as the investor group that came in yesterday.

Before so many positive expectations are realized, there is a high probability that the selling will not be concentrated easily.

Therefore, I think there is no need to worry too much. Your so-called feeling... I am not saying that, it is a bit redundant if it is true. Don’t forget, the market is a ‘bull market’!

Since it is a 'bull market', then it is supported by relatively clear expected benefits.

Short funds cannot make any big waves. "