Chapter 723: What supports the rise in stock prices is expectations, not the fulfillment of expectat

“Today’s ‘Southern Department’ funds bought a lot!”

After seeing the data of the two cities' dragon and tiger rankings, Mou Zhengxing, the fund manager of 'Manniu No. 2' in the main fund trading room of Xinniu Fund Company in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, said with emotion: "Moreover, the direction in which the 'Southern Department' funds have increased their positions in large quantities is basically All on the main line of 'big finance'.

Looking back at the domestic institutional groups, today's operations... are indeed a bit smart.

There are many institutions that sell main line chips of "big finance" with a profit limit, and backhand to increase positions in "big consumption, non-ferrous metal cycle, petrochemical industry, coal, pharmaceutical business..." and other low-level main lines!

But judging from the closing results...

The core hot spots of the market have finally returned to the core main lines of 'big finance, big infrastructure, military industry, and technological growth'. However, the trends of many popular core stocks in these core main line areas are still not so satisfactory. , the discrepancy on the market is also not small.

There is also the main line of "sub-new stocks" that have been intensively speculated by short-term capital groups in the market recently. Today's trend is obviously not as good as expected.

And the trends of other conceptual themes related to the "sub-new stocks" line are also unsatisfactory.

In general, although the market has ended its positive streak, the momentum and intensity of its apparent rise are not as strong as in the previous trading days, and the long-short differences on the market are increasing.

In this form...

I'm thinking, even if this is not a short-term correction point, it is probably not far from a correction point, right? "

After Mou Zhengxing finished speaking, his eyes quickly turned to Fang Xinsheng, the company's asset management business manager and the product manager of the 'Manniu No. 1' fund.

Fang Xinsheng noticed his gaze, nodded with a smile, and said: "Today, the domestic institutional groups who abandoned the main line chips of 'big finance' and cut into the low-level main line chips are indeed a little smart, but judging from the market trend reaction, domestic institutions Many institutional groups are indeed short-sighted in their understanding of market trends and judgments on market patterns, and have no medium or long-term thinking at all.

But if we say this is very close to a short- to medium-term adjustment node...

Fang Xinsheng paused and continued with a smile: "I don't think so."

"Mr. Fang doesn't think so?" Mou Zhengxing was a little surprised and said in astonishment, "According to the expected analysis, the short- and medium-term benefits that everyone expected have been realized today. There is no clear short- and medium-term benefits in the future. We only rely on bull market expectations. emotional interpretation.

For the "Big Finance" line, it is still difficult to break out of the sharp upward trend in the past half month or so, right?

What's more, the 'Big Finance' line has actually risen so much, which can be considered to have fulfilled part of the expectations.

In this way, the accumulated profits will come after the good news comes true.

Most likely, they will continue to sell and reduce their positions in the main line of chips, like many institutional groups on the "big financial" line of taking profits today.

And the motivation to buy...

Today, after the "Big Finance" surged higher and fell back in early trading, it was able to continue to reverse towards the end of the afternoon and recover its losses during the session.

I think it mainly benefits from the fact that today is the first day of the launch of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

Since there was no direct channel for 'Southern' funds to participate in A-share investment, they saw the continuous short squeeze in our A-share market and felt depressed for a long time. That's why they entered the market on a large scale today without any hesitation. A more extreme buying situation has emerged.

in other words……

This is the result of the continuous accumulation of bullish sentiment for more than half a month.

It was also because of the new incremental funds of the "Southern System" stock that it was able to withstand the intraday selling due to today's extreme buying that exceeded expectations, and pulled back the market prices of the two cities in the late trading stage.

If there were no extreme buying from the "Southern" capital group today, there would be no extreme incremental capital group brought about by the opening of the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect".

So, the actual trend of the market today should be an obvious rise and fall.

And, this pent-up bull sentiment.

Once you find an outlet to vent, let it out.

Then, it can be foreseen that this bullish sentiment will gradually decline as time goes by.

Furthermore, the overall number of funds that are extremely interested in the A-share market among the ‘southern’ capital groups should be a certain amount.

Today is the first day of launch of Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

That’s why the ‘Southern Department’ funds are pouring in so rapidly.

In the future, as the "Southern" capital group's positions in A-shares increase, their new purchases will obviously decrease.

In this way, this new group of major funds entering the market will have an impact on the market conditions of the two cities.

And the impact on the trend development of the two cities will be obviously greatly reduced. Naturally, it is impossible to be able to withstand the concentrated profit-making selling as strongly as it is today.

So I say...

The current market situation in the short term should make it difficult to continue to make a large-scale breakthrough upward! "

Fang Xinsheng looked at Mou Zhengxing with a smile and said: "Zhengxing, do you think our Big A's current liquidity, the turnover of the two cities, and the amount of funds from the 'Southern Department' can support the entire market?" Can it affect the general trend?

The market has a turnover of 800 billion, and the amount of "southern" funds pouring in.

Even if today is the first day and the buying is more active, it still does not account for 2%.

Can this amount of funds affect the entire market? Does not! The fundamental reason why today's market can take such a shape is the concerted efforts of the market.

Just based on the disclosed dragon and tiger rankings of the two cities.

For the stocks on the list with "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" seats, look at it, are other domestic funds buying more, or are the funds from "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" seats buying more?

It can only be said that this batch of "southern" funds poured in through the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" channel.

It has a keen sense of the market and is one of the smarter core funds in the market, but it is not the one that really leads the market.

At present, judging from the size of the A-share market that this capital can enter.

They are also unable to lead the market and change the market trend of the market.

Today, the core themes of 'big finance, big infrastructure, military industry, and science and technology growth', after rising high and falling in the morning, can still fully rebound towards the end of the afternoon, recover the intraday decline, and once again emerge from the 'strong' trend. Hengqiang's overall surge.

The fundamental reason is the continued money-making effect of these core main lines.

and its future deterministic expectations.

Rather than other... reasons, it has nothing to do with the group of funds that came in through the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect".

On the other hand, look at the low-level main lines of 'big consumption, non-ferrous metal cycle, petrochemical industry, coal, pharmaceutical business...'.

The reason why it once surged sharply during the session, but eventually had no choice but to fall back, formed an obvious upward and downward trend during the day, and failed to gather its sustained money-making effect.

The most fundamental reason...

It’s still the industries related to these low-level main lines, as well as the main themes.

There are currently no clear signs of expected reversal, and there are some positive expectations that can be expected in the future.

When the core main lines of the major markets such as 'big finance, big infrastructure, military industry, and technological growth' are combined with the low-level main lines such as 'big consumption, non-ferrous metal cycle, petrochemical industry, coal, pharmaceutical business...', whether it is certain in the foreseeable future When there is a very large expectation gap in terms of positives, perceptible changes in fundamentals, and the most significant future expectations, the valuation gap between the two has not widened enough to close all the gap in expectations.

Regardless of how the relevant weighted stocks and industry leading stocks in the core main areas of "big finance, big infrastructure, military industry, and technological growth" will rise in the short term.

What kind of height has the short-term increase reached?

Then, in terms of investment logic and investment performance-price ratio, it still exceeds the corresponding weight stocks and industry leading stocks of low-level main lines such as "big consumption, non-ferrous metal cycle, petrochemical industry, coal, pharmaceutical business...".

Since the investment logic and investment performance-price ratio of the two are better and worse, it is still very clear.

Then, the vast investor group in the market, especially the smart investor group, is very obvious in their investment choices and buying choices.

This is the reason why many funds today fail to guide the market to switch between high and low.

This is also the reason why the line of "big finance" can keep strong, continue to reach new highs, and continuously break everyone's market expectations.

So, obviously...

Even though the 'big finance' line, especially the technical trends of the securities sector and the Internet finance sector, have obviously deviated somewhat, its upward trend and the sustained money-making effect it has demonstrated have led to the market turnover still remaining at It is at an extremely high level and is still rising.

It was never the time to adjust or end.

Also...

You just mentioned the issue of the short- and medium-term benefits of the main line of "big finance".

Zhengxing, do you think that in the past half month, the main financial groups on and off the market have increased their positions on a large scale, pursued the core line of 'big finance', and madly grabbed securities, core stocks in the Internet financial sector, and leading stocks in the industry? Is the bargaining chip coming for the three major benefits of today's opening of "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect", "China Securities 500 Index Futures" and "A50 Index Futures"? "

Mou Zhengxing asked Fang Xinsheng and replied with a smile: "Of course it's not just that. The main long-term investment logic, as well as the underlying logic, is to expect that the market will go bullish or form a comprehensive bull market, which will bring about market turnover, two-way integration The two-way growth of balances will then drive the performance growth of securities companies, banks and insurance companies."

"More than that." Fang Xinsheng said, "The market supports the line of 'big finance', and the biggest potential expected benefit of such a surge has not yet materialized at all. Not only has it not materialized, but it is still in the hazy stage until it becomes increasingly clear. In this process, in other words, until now... this biggest potential positive expectation, both inside and outside the market, has just begun to ferment rapidly and profoundly affect the next market trend."

"Mr. Fang is referring to..." Mou Zhengxing was a little confused.

Fang Xinsheng said: "The biggest potential positive expectation for the main line of 'big finance', which is changing from a hazy period to a clear period, is the central bank's monetary policy shift.

As long as this expectation is positive and clear.

Then, there will be a huge loosening of funds on a macro level.

What this will bring to the market will not be 100 billion or 200 billion in incremental funds, but will most likely be trillions of incremental funds.

This incremental capital group is compared to what is brought about by the implementation of the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect.

That is the difference between a river and a small pond.

The reason why the line of "big finance" is so strong and radical is that at the same time, everyone's expectations for a comprehensive bull market in the market are becoming more and more firm.

The fundamental reason is the current market.

There are already many institutional groups and various major financial groups.

It is expected that in the short to medium term, the central bank will make a decision to shift monetary policy, with a high probability of loosening monetary policy and cutting interest rates and reserve requirement ratios beyond expectations.

This is the most important expectation and speculation logic that supports the continued bullish trend of the market.

This is also the fundamental reason why in the past half month, and even in the second half of the year, blue-chip stocks, which are heavily weighted on the market's main board, and leading stocks in various industries have been far stronger than small and medium-cap concept stocks.

So, let’s analyze from this logical line.

Not only can we not say that the positive market expectations supporting the core main lines of "big finance, big infrastructure, military industry, and technology growth" have been realized, but we can say that all the positive expectations are in the midst of extreme fermentation, and their strong upward trend , and it is far from the time when expectations are realized and adjustments are reversed.

There are many financial groups who have not carefully analyzed the market or carefully sorted out market news.

at this time.

I feel that by taking advantage of the favorable implementation of the 'Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect', 'China Securities 500 Index Futures' and 'A50 Index Futures', we can seize the opportunity to switch the main line market by doing the main line market rotation of 'high and low switching'. The excess profits from both ends can be harvested in a timely manner from the "Southern System" funds flowing in through the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect" channel.

In fact, it is just a stupid way to be smart and not recognize the essential changes and trends of the market.

But...

Such a false and false rotation.

In the main line field of 'big finance', profit-making capital groups that are not firm in their holdings are allowed to take profits and lighten their positions on a large scale, and at the same time, they use the trend of low-level main lines to rise and fall, but it will also help the market outlook.' Big Finance's main line market continues to break upward.

At the same time, it will also help the market outlook develop.

Within and outside the market, active major financial groups are further gathering in core main areas such as ‘big finance, big infrastructure, military industry, and technological growth’.

In general, the market trends of the two cities today are.

Although the process was a bit unexpected, the result... was still slightly beyond expectations. "

"The central bank's interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts..." After listening to Fang Xinsheng's series of in-depth analysis of the market conditions of the two cities, Mou Zhengxing finally understood and said, "This expectation can really be realized in the short to medium term, or before the end of the year. Can it really hit the ground?"

Fang Xinsheng said with a smile: "I don't know, but as long as the market has this expectation, and the expectation becomes more and more clear, wouldn't it be enough if the consistency of everyone's expectations becomes stronger and stronger? You know, what supports the rise in stock prices is the increasing The expectation is getting stronger and stronger, rather than the fulfillment of the final expectation. As long as there is an expectation and everyone agrees with the logic of the expectation, it does not matter whether it can be fulfilled in the end."