Chapter 748: Respect the market trend!

Of course, in addition to the trading data of individual stocks.

The overall trading data disclosed by the Dragon and Tiger Lists of the two cities, as well as the collective trends of institutions and the capital trends of the special seat of ‘Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect’, are also worthy of focus and discussion.

According to the Dragon and Tiger List data disclosed by the two cities, it can be seen that although the net outflow of main funds in the main line of 'big finance' today is relatively serious, the buying and selling data disclosed by the entire Dragon and Tiger List still shows a net buying state. , that is, among the popular stocks on the list, the main capital group is still in a state of continuous accumulation of positions, while the retail capital group is in a state of continuous selling.

As for the seat trading performance of ‘Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect’.

Although in this seat, some of the stocks on the list today have been sold, overall, they still show a net buying trend, and the amount of net buying funds is still as high as more than 100 million.

Therefore, although the market trend of the two cities today is obviously declining.

However, according to the buying and selling data disclosed by the two cities’ dragon and tiger lists, in discussions among the vast majority of investor groups inside and outside the market, everyone’s expectations for the market outlook and even their investment ideas are still positive and optimistic. No one is The bull market pattern of the market is doubtful, and no one thinks that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index will completely stop at 3,500 points and fall back to 3,000 points.

However, even after the Dragon and Tiger ranking data were released.

Investment sentiment and investment confidence in the two cities remain positive.

But in the evening, the trend of external markets was still clouded, especially the U.S. stock market, which continued to open and move lower in the middle of the night, casting a shadow over the global financial markets.

The next day, Friday, November 21st came.

Under the influence of U.S. stocks opening lower and moving lower, other markets in Asia-Pacific also opened lower in early trading.

In the domestic market, the mood in early trading has obviously dropped compared to last night.

However, despite the apparent decline in sentiment, there are still very few clear bearish investors within and outside the entire market and among the broad investor community.

"It seems that the market is likely to open lower today again."

At around 8:40 a.m., in the trading room of the 'Yinghui No. 2' fund product of Yinghui Fund Company in Shanghai, fund manager Shao Xiaoyun frowned slightly and said, "I originally thought that it would be effortless for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index to break through 3,500 points. And there won’t be much resistance at 3,500 points. Now it seems... the external market is not cooperating. It is very difficult for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index to stand at 3,500 points and continue to open up the market space!"

"It's not that easy to completely stand firm at 3,500 points." Beside Shao Xiaoyun, fund trading team leader Liu Changling responded, "Since the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index broke through 3,000 points and entered the bull market stage, especially in the past half month, The Shanghai Stock Index is rising too fast, and it is almost a continuous short squeeze upward. This trend is based on the basic condition that the 3000 to 3500 points of the Shanghai Stock Index are the areas with the heaviest holdup in history.

Without going through some violent shocks back and forth, or exchanging time for space.

In this way, we can fully digest the heavy historical hold-up orders in this range, as well as the large number of profit-making orders accumulated in the past half month.

It is difficult to really stand firm at the 3500 point position.

In fact, as long as the market's overall investment confidence does not decline significantly, the macro fundamentals are still improving, the regulatory attitude towards the market is still actively protective, and the bull market atmosphere and bull market expectations do not change significantly in other directions, the market will remain at this position. There is no harm in adjusting and correcting the sustained technical divergence that appears after the continuous short squeeze and rise. On the contrary, it will make the subsequent market move more smoothly. "

"It is natural to start the analysis from the medium and long-term investment logic." Shao Xiaoyun said, "But it is not the case to start the analysis from the short- to medium-term market trend, and our transactions... still have to be based on the current situation. The market situation is improving."

"What do you think, Mr. Shao?" Hearing Shao Xiaoyun's words, Liu Changling paused and asked.

Shao Xiaoyun thought for a while and said: "Chang Ling, do you think if the market enters the adjustment stage, will it be a general adjustment or a partial adjustment?"

Liu Changling responded: "The current market has such high liquidity, with a daily turnover of more than 800 billion, and investment confidence is still improving. In addition, due to the expected impact of the bull market, many financial groups outside the market have , and are still entering the market.

Under such market fundamentals, even if the market conditions and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index temporarily encountered upward resistance.

It has been under concentrated selling pressure from historical hold-up orders, short-term unwinding orders, and profit-making orders.

It is also unlikely that there will be a sustained general decline.

In fact, the market trend in the market adjustment yesterday was very obvious. The adjustment of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure', 'big consumption', 'mobile Internet', 'smartphone industry chain' and other low-level main lines have risen, forming a When the index falls, the market has a partial profit-making effect.

I think if there is a structural adjustment trend in the market in the future.

There is a high probability that it will be the same trend as yesterday's market. After all, extreme adjustment trends like last Monday's will definitely not be the norm, so we don't need to worry too much. "

"I also think it should be a partial adjustment of the strong main line." Shao Xiaoyun said, "I'm wondering if we can make a partial position adjustment during the market adjustment stage, based on the logic of the market's 'high-low switching'. Operation, reduce the retracement of the fund's net value, and at the same time make some appropriate short- and medium-term profits."

"There should be no problem with the logic of 'high-low switching'." Liu Changling thought for a while and said, "According to yesterday's market performance, under the logic of 'high-low switching', there are many market directions, and there are many variables. It's also very big, and it's hard to say whether it will be sustainable or not.

If we are to partially adjust our positions, we will reduce our holdings of the core weight stocks of "big finance" and "big infrastructure" that we have completed the layout.

Go after these low-priced stocks that are showing signs of compensating for gains.

What if these stocks have a short-term rebound but are not sustainable? In other words... suddenly, there is another wave of positive news that exceeds expectations from the regulatory authorities and the macro news?

By then, the main lines of ‘big finance’ and ‘big infrastructure’ will rapidly rise.

We didn't have time to catch up.

Moreover, in this case, once the position and chips are lost, the opportunity to buy back is missed, and the market rhythm is wrong, subsequent operations will be more troublesome.

I think giving up the core main line with higher market certainty.

Chasing the main line of the "compensatory increase" pattern with medium and short-term logic is a bit like magnifying and catching the small ones, which is not very cost-effective, and the transaction risk is not small. "

"Then... what do you mean?" Seeing that Liu Changling did not agree with his idea, Shao Xiaoyun hesitated and asked, "Are we just going to watch the market adjust and continue to hold positions statically, motionless?"

Shao Xiaoyun thought for a while and said: "In fact, it is good to continue to maintain static positions. Divergence in the bull market is not a selling point, but a buying point. We only predict and guess that the market will be below 3500 points and adjust for a period of time. But whether there will be any specific adjustments, no one knows until the market recovers!

But what is certain is that no matter whether the market will adjust or not.

The two core main lines of the market, 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure', are expected in the bull market, the central bank is expected to cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratios, the macroeconomic strategic planning of the 'New Era Road, Maritime Silk Road' is expected, and the 'reform and reorganization of central and state-owned enterprises' are expected. ...Under these many expected factors.

It is certain that it will continue to rise, continue to refresh the current stock price position, and create higher space.

After all, these expected benefits did not materialize.

The huge incremental capital group outside the market has not all entered the market yet.

If we take the initiative to give up the two core main-line chips with higher certainty and pursue those low-level main-line chips that are not so certain but are currently performing well, we will give up the certainty of the medium and long-term and choose the short-term and medium-term. A less certain investment opportunity!

Of course, if the next trend of the market is indeed less than expected.

The adjustment situation is gradually becoming clearer.

Then, it is also possible to appropriately reduce some of the chips, lower the current position level of our fund, keep some available liquidity in hand, and look for opportunities to increase positions at low levels.

However, I firmly disagree, following the current market conditions.

Do transactions in the direction of ‘high-low switching’. "

After hearing what Liu Changling said, Shao Xiaoyun thought carefully for a while and said, "Okay, let's take another look. If the market adjustment trend becomes more and more obvious, then as you said, we will first lower the fund's Part of the position is used to avoid the market's retracement decline and control the retracement of the fund's net value within a smaller range."

Since Liu Changling did not agree to adjust positions and exchange shares, he changed his trading ideas.

Shao Xiaoyun feels that the only way to control the net value retracement of fund products in possible continuous market adjustments is by controlling fund positions.

With the continuous communication between the two, as well as the pre-market market analysis and investment strategy analysis.

Unconsciously, the time has entered 9:15, and the two cities ushered in the initial collective bidding.

I saw the stagnant market of the two cities. When the time pointer just crossed 9:15, it quickly started to beat. A few seconds later, the market pattern of the two cities was revealed.

According to the displayed stock patterns of the two cities.

In the entire market, there are more than 2,000 stocks, and nearly 1,200 stocks are in the red market, barely more than half.

The relevant industry sectors and concept sectors in the field of 'big consumption', which showed certain money-making effects and strong market trends yesterday, as well as the industry sectors and concept sectors related to the two major conceptual themes of 'mobile Internet' and 'smartphone industry chain', are all in the The industry sectors and concept sectors of the two cities were at the top of the growth list.

As for the sustained surge in the early stage, it serves as the core weight line supporting the market.

In the two main areas of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure', related industry sectors and concept sectors still continued yesterday's weak form. Most of the related industry sectors and concept sectors showed a slightly lower opening trend.

Among them, the securities sector opened 44% lower and the Internet financial sector opened 53% lower.

The building materials sector opened 41% lower; the construction and decoration sector opened 38% lower; the commercial real estate development sector opened 31% lower; the machinery and equipment sector opened 29% lower; the steel sector opened 27% lower; the public transportation sector opened 25% lower; The public transportation sector opened 23% lower.

The main line of 'military industry' opened higher and moved lower yesterday, and finally closed sharply lower.

The 'National Defense Industry' sector opened more than 6% lower, showing signs of leading the decline in the industry sectors in both cities.

As for the weighted industry sectors in the two main "big finance" areas of "banking and insurance", they are showing a flat opening trend, and their relative performance is relatively stable. They are worthy of being the market's anchor.

In addition to the core main lines of the market, the performance of popular industry sectors and concept sectors.

The performance of a number of popular stocks in the two cities.

The check of ‘Huake Shuguang’, which has attracted the most attention and discussion among market investors, has directly shown a one-word daily limit trend at this moment, and the daily limit has closed orders, exceeding 100,000 lots.

The "Shanghai Steel Union" check, which ranks second in popularity in the two cities, opened 12% higher, and the initial active buying on the market was also relatively active.

The third most popular "Shanghai Sanmao" opened higher by 65%.

After that, 'Quantong Education' initially opened 39% higher; 'Bluestone Heavy Equipment' initially opened 59% lower; 'Chengfei Integration' immediately showed a downward limit-on-line trend, with the limit-down limit closing reaching 620,000 lots;' Flush' opened 22% lower, and the long-short divergence on the market was large. The initial number of orders to be matched was as high as 1,122 lots; 'Great Wisdom' opened 89% lower, and the market divergence was also large.

Also, 'Oriental Fortune' opened 11% lower; 'Huaxin Securities' opened 52% lower; 'Huazhong Capital' opened 75% lower; 'Huaxin Securities' opened 62% lower; 'Western Securities' opened 31% lower; 'China South Locomotive' opened 21% lower; 'China North Locomotive' opened 19% lower...

A number of popular stocks opened low and opened high, accounting for almost half each.

It is relatively consistent with the overall market performance of the two cities.

"The main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' continue to be weak!"

At 9:16, just next to the 'Yinghui No. 2' fund product trading room, in the 'Yinghui No. 1' fund product trading room, the trading team leader Yu Lei stared at the market patterns of the two cities that had begun collective bidding, frowning slightly. Wrinkling, he continued: "It seems that market adjustment is inevitable, and the major core lines of the market, the form of 'high-low switching', after several efforts by various major funds, it finally seems to be a successful switch. .”

"Yes!" Next to Yu Lei, fund manager Liu Guanhai also stared at the market and said with emotion, "Although the technical trend is not necessarily accurate, it still has a certain reference value. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the A50 Index, and the 'Big For the securities, Internet finance and other sectors in the main financial field, the K-line pattern deviates too seriously. Various funds have been hesitant to undertake it. Now the external market is weakening, and there is no new major super market on the internal macro level. Expected positive support, the group of funds undertaking the decline, profit-taking and arbitrage settlements are pouring out, and the trend will naturally go in the direction of adjustment.

in other words……

Focusing on the core line of 'big finance', especially the securities, Internet finance sectors, and even the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and A50 Index.

The K-line pattern gradually returns to the important moving average, which is the direction of development with the least resistance. No one can stop this, and we must respect the market. "