Chapter 802 Potential power conversion between bulls and bears!

"The main financial groups in the market are further converging on the core weight stocks of the popular main lines. Is this caused by... the pressure of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index at 3,600 points?" Next to Chen Shen, Gao Yixiang, the trading team leader who heard Chen Shen's sighs, responded, “It feels like although many stocks in the popular main areas of the market have diverged in trend today, there are still no problems with the overall market development and the market’s continued money-making effect, right?

After all, there are many popular stocks with high bids such as Flush, Shanghai Steel Union, Blue Stone Heavy Equipment, Huake Dawning...

There are also a number of popular main line weighted blue-chip stocks such as 'Huagong International, Huaguo Construction, Huaxin Securities, Huashang Securities, Huaguo MCC...' and other popular main lines.

The overall money-making effect is still rising.

At least for now, there are no signs of market adjustment in these stocks, right?

I feel that as long as the market leader does not die, the market will not stop. Whether it is the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, or the ChiNext Index, there is a high probability that it can continue to break through upward.

Of course, in addition to the market trends of these high-standard leaders and the performance of market sentiment.

The quantity and performance of the two cities are also very important.

But looking at the volume of today's market, there is still a continuous upward trend. The shrinking trend in the past two days has not developed to today.

The amount of energy is more than 950 billion, which is an increase of more than 10 billion compared with yesterday.

I think this amount can be increased incrementally, so it should be very healthy, right?

In general, I think the current market trend of the two cities should be very healthy. We should continue to hold long positions, and we can also appropriately adjust according to the development of the market and the main funds continue to move towards the core main line weight of the blue chip market. This trend of stocks concentrating will lead to further concentration of positions, thereby obtaining more excess returns at this stage of the market and further increasing the net value of our fund products. "

"On the surface, everything you said is correct." Chen Shen's eyes did not leave the frozen market of the two markets. He just waited for Gao Yixiang to finish his analysis, paused for a while, and continued, "But don't forget, the current middle price in the market is The speed of accumulation of short-term profit taking and unwinding of arbitrage orders far exceeds the speed of incremental over-the-counter funds entering the market.

At the same time, if it is these core popular main lines.

Compared with the trend of leading stocks, a large number of constituent stocks are not so smooth. At this stage, they cannot further open up the upward space of stock prices, and their valuations cannot be further improved rapidly. Then...it has the same concept and is the core of the same industry. Weight leading stocks.

It is also impossible to continue to strengthen independently, and the valuation is too far away from these non-popular core mainline stocks.

Analysis based on past historical market trends.

The anchor of market valuation is not determined by these core leading stocks in various industries, popular stocks, and conceptual leading stocks that all kinds of active funds gather to speculate, but by a large number of ordinary stocks with average fundamentals and no major financial groups to focus on and control the market. Determined by constituent stocks.

In other words, even if the market is in a bullish stage.

Although industry leaders and growth leaders with excellent fundamentals can enjoy the market's valuation premium and liquidity premium to a certain extent, they still cannot completely break away from the overall industry's general valuation level and cannot exceed the valuation of ordinary stocks in a number of industries. The value is too far.

If the difference in valuation between the two is too large.

Then, there is no doubt that the valuation of leading stocks will eventually retrace accordingly.

It also shows that in this case, the valuation of leading stocks will be generally overvalued, and there will be a certain bubble in the corresponding stock chips. Since there is a bubble, it must be accompanied by risks.

Let’s look at the current market conditions.

Previously, there were three core main areas: ‘big finance’, ‘big infrastructure’ and ‘military industry’.

Whether it is core leading stocks, weighted blue-chip stocks, concept hot stocks, or a group of ordinary stocks, although it is not a complete general rise situation, there is a slight gap in strength between the two, but in general, it is There was no over-differentiation.

But now, this situation of differentiation has emerged.

This shows that among the three core main lines, this large number of expected imaginations are limited, and some non-popular general industry stocks have reached the price that everyone expected.

That is to say, the most optimistic expectation everyone estimates is the current stock price reaction position of these stocks.

Going further up, the willingness of the bulls to take over and the power of the bulls to take the initiative will inevitably weaken significantly under the premise that the cost-effectiveness of investment and the profit-loss ratio gradually lose cost-effectiveness.

At the same time, a large number of short- and medium-term profit-taking and arbitrage orders were previously deposited in these stocks.

When the stock price reaches inner expectations and fully reflects the fundamentals... the idea of ​​​​"reducing positions and taking profits" will inevitably occur and continue to sell in large quantities.

I think this is also the case in today's market...

There are a number of core main areas such as ‘big finance’, ‘big infrastructure’, and ‘military industry’.

The stock prices of a large number of heavyweight core stocks such as 'Huaxin Securities, Huashang Securities, Huaguo Construction, Huaguo MCC, Huagong International, Huaxin Building Materials...', as well as blue-chip large-cap stocks, have continued to hit new annual highs and new market highs. Moreover, when the main capital groups still show large-scale net buying on the market of these tickets, the overall main capital trading situation in the entire core main line area actually shows a slight net outflow. "

When Chen Shen said this, his eyes shifted from the frozen market of the two markets, and looked at Wang Jinglun, the leader of the trading team who had not spoken until now, and asked: "Jinglun, what do you think? Regarding today's situation in the two markets, Do you have any thoughts on the closing results?”

Seeing Chen Shen asking the question, Wang Jinglun thought for a while, moved his eyes away from the computer screen, stood up and said, "I think Mr. Chen is right. The trends of stocks in the same industry sectors and the same concept sectors in popular main lines are generally divergent. The next performance of the market will definitely not be a good thing.

Although the turnover of the two cities is still rising today.

But there is no doubt that the internal chip structure of many stocks has obviously begun to loosen.

During this period of time, as the index continued to rise due to short-selling, the accumulated short- and medium-term profits, as well as the unwinding of arbitrage, and some floating holding chips, faced with the Shanghai stock index rising to this point, and the technical aspects have already In the case of a complete divergence, the idea of ​​taking profits or reducing losses and stopping losses should be very strong.

On the other hand, look at the bullish sentiment in the market and the potential bullish financial power.

Although the current bullish sentiment in the market is still hot and remains at a high level, we all know how difficult it is to "make further progress".

When the bullish sentiment in the market is already extremely hot, it is necessary to further improve the sentiment.

Even with the stimulation of good macro news, it is very difficult.

The bullish sentiment cannot progress any further, which means that the current active bullish groups who are optimistic about the market have basically entered the market.

This also means that the market is the most active long capital force.

It has been completely exhausted in the previous market's continuous short squeeze and rise.

At present, it can also support the upward trend of the market and continue to undertake funds for the market, as well as many popular leading stocks with strong expectations, and even mainline stocks.

Mainly it can only come from the group of potential investors who have not yet entered the market.

At this time, although the overall bearish sentiment in the market is very weak under the current situation, there are basically no public bearish voices.

But I just said it...

In the one-month short-squeeze and rise of the index, the continuous accumulation of short- and medium-term profit-making capacity, as well as the capacity of unwinding orders and floating hold-up orders, is very scary.

Moreover, the amount of these funds can be said to be potential short selling forces in the future.

In other words, at this time, the potential long financial power of the market is already far weaker than the potential short power.

If the main line market cannot further open up the valuation space, the valuation of a number of main line common component stocks cannot be further improved.

There are a large group of funds locked up on the market, as well as a group of funds that are gradually taking over the market and are still optimistic about it.

A huge disagreement suddenly occurred.

Then, when a large number of potential short forces in the market realize that the market is not so easy to actively rise, the profit-making effect will gradually diminish, and a huge wave of concentrated selling will come.

Therefore, at this time, there is a potential huge risk of a correction in the market.

There is no problem either.

This applies to our institution’s main fund product position trading and investment strategies. I feel that at this time, we cannot follow the market trend and the radical operations of many active capital groups, thinking about further concentrating positions and chasing leaders to obtain The market's excess profits.

Instead, it is necessary to appropriately reduce the holdings of some mainline stocks and do a good job in risk control for possible extreme fluctuations or extreme adjustments in the market.

There is also the issue that Mr. Chen just mentioned about the general differentiation of mainline stocks...

Judging from the past historical market trends, individual stocks in the same popular main line area generally diverge significantly, and the end of the main line market is actually not far away. "

"Okay, this analysis is good and well-founded." At some point, the company's general manager Liu Ziliang also arrived in the trading room. He had a smile on his face and looked at Wang Jinglun, who had just finished his analysis, with a smile. Said, "Even if the market is a bull market, we really cannot take it lightly when holding positions. We only see the expected profits, but not the possible risks hidden behind the market."

"Mr. Liu, do you also think..." Chen Shen had a surprised look on his face and couldn't help but ask.

Liu Ziliang continued to laugh, and after thinking about Chen Shen's words, he said: "I heard your analysis just now when I was at the door. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has been short-selling continuously in the past month, just to make the majority of investors in the market, This is the overall expectation of a bull market.

Today, this comprehensive expected outcome has been achieved.

In other words, many of the main funds that intervened in the market on a large scale a month ago have already fulfilled their expectations.

Now that expectations have been fulfilled, can these funds still resist the idea of ​​reducing positions and taking profits? I'm afraid it's impossible, right?

In addition, before the central bank's monetary policy is implemented next month, the current market's volume and energy progress has indeed increased to a bottleneck position.

Based on the volume performance of the current market, as well as the accumulated sustained profits and unwinding of arbitrage.

We want to rely on the continued progress of financing and the gradual influx of a large number of potential investors from the sidelines to support the market and continue to open up space.

I think...basically, it's still unrealistic.

Therefore, since there are potential risks, and in the following major main areas, the market is developing, the investment performance-to-price ratio, and the profit-loss ratio are not high.

At the same time, the market also showed a differentiated trend.

Then, appropriately reduce positions and take profits on those mainline stocks that have achieved expected fulfillment, and reduce certain positions to cope with the risk of extreme adjustments that may occur in the market.

That is to say, it is a natural and smooth thing. "

"Thank you, Mr. Liu, for your approval." Chen Shen did not expect that Liu Ziliang's idea was exactly the same as his own. He was very happy and said, "Then I will implement my idea."

Liu Ziliang nodded, turned his eyes back to Gao Yixiang and Wang Jinglun, and said, "You two are both good, and you both have your own opinions."

The two of them smiled slightly awkwardly, and then responded with one or two sentences before lowering their heads and continuing to review.

When the two people's eyes fell back on the frozen market of the two cities, the market time had moved to 5:30 pm, and the dragon and tiger lists of the two cities, as well as the balance data of the two cities, were refreshed at the same time. (End of chapter)