Chapter 855: The pseudo-logic of ‘high-low switching’!

"I think it is difficult to get out." Fang Xinsheng said, "The core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' are going so strong this year. The core supporting logic is still these major The main line's expectations for this year are very strong. First, the macroeconomic strategic planning of the "New Era Road and Maritime Silk Road" stimulated external demand for the entire "big infrastructure" main line.

Then there were policy incentives for the reform of central and state-owned enterprises, as well as east wind stimulus such as the restructuring of military assets and the securitization of military assets.

Coupled with the arrival of the market bull market, the rapid increase in transaction volume and transaction volume in the two cities has provided the main line of "big finance", especially the securities sector, with a strong foundation for this year's performance explosion.

It is all these expectations that support the logic of the core lines of ‘big finance’, ‘big infrastructure’ and ‘military industry’.

As for the two main lines of "sub-new stocks" and "film and television media", they are also particularly strong and can be realized with logical support.

In June this year, six major ministries and commissions jointly proposed the "Film Market Revitalization" plan, which provided subsidies to the entire domestic film market, which directly boosted the box office of the film market in the second half of the year, thus providing benefits to major film and television companies and the entire entertainment and film and television industries. The chain has injected expectations of performance growth.

With this strong performance surge expected, as well as firm policy support.

It was only in the second half of the year that the ‘film and television media’ sector exploded.

Similarly, the logic behind the continued explosive market prices in the "sub-new stocks" sector and the various short-term capital groups gathering in this field to speculate is also very clear.

That is because after the IPO restart, the regulators did not increase the burden on the market.

It has severely reduced the financing amount and valuation level of major companies' IPOs. Whether they are companies in emerging industries or companies in traditional industries, they are all given a unified PE valuation of 22 times when they go public.

This obviously gives an opportunity for new stock listings to be hyped.

Coupled with the arrival of the bull market, the valuation level of the entire market has passively increased.

Then, it is difficult for sub-new stock sectors with a bargaining chip advantage not to be speculated by short-term capital groups from all walks of life.

These are the basic logic of these core main lines in the past, and they are also the most fundamental supporting force why these popular main lines have been continuously gathered and speculated by various funds in the past, and can support the upward trend of the market index.

But now, let’s look at the fundamental situation of the main line areas such as ‘big consumption’, ‘non-ferrous cycle’, ‘petrochemical industry’, ‘mobile Internet’, and ‘smartphone industry chain’ under the so-called main line ‘high-low switch’.

Well, 'big consumption' can also be said to be the investment logic of increasing demand after confidence in the news recovers under the expectation of economic recovery. However, the core main sectors of 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical industry' and 'coal' are completely different. It's all money speculation.

At present, the main cyclical sectors are ‘non-ferrous cycle’, ‘petrochemical industry’ and ‘coal’.

It is true that the valuation is very low, basically the lowest valuation level in history.

However, according to information from all aspects of the market, the fundamentals of these main sectors and major industries continue to deteriorate.

Thermal coal, aluminum, copper, zinc, iron, oil prices...

There is no trace of cycle reversal at all.

The recovery of the global economy, so far, is not as strong as everyone expected.

It is basically impossible to use expectations of economic recovery to drive a reversal of the main line of the entire cycle.

In the last round, the main uptrend of the bull market in 2006 and 2007, we can see that it was mainly driven by the main line of the cycle and the main line of big finance.

That bull market was before the investment confidence and sentiment in the bull market were detonated by the ‘share-trading reform’.

The first thing that happened was the bull market pattern of the entire cyclical industry under the strong growth of the global economy.

It was the explosion of the entire non-ferrous metals and oil cycle that led to the subsequent bull market stage, where cycles and finance went hand in hand.

However, this round of bull market.

This kind of scene is completely invisible.

Not only cannot it be seen, but it is also obvious that the fundamental situation of the entire cyclical industry continues to deteriorate. At this current valuation level, against the background that the profitability of companies related to major cyclical industries continues to decline, to be honest, it is very Hard to hold on.

Since its fundamentals show no signs of improvement.

So, without the underlying logical support, how can it be possible to guide the entire main rising trend of these major main lines by relying solely on emotions, or even want to use this to boost the market?

As for the two core main lines of ‘mobile Internet’ and ‘smartphone industry chain’.

It is true that we are in an Internet technology innovation cycle with the explosion of mobile Internet. These two core main lines are indeed the biggest investment trends in current social development and even in the next few years.

But, just because everyone knows this is the outlet.

Therefore, on the hot topic, any company, enterprise, or project with some quality has been hyped by various funds and capitals to the peak of valuation, or even to the valuation bubble stage.

There is a saying in the investment market.

It is called consistent expectations, and it is usually difficult to generate any excess return on investment.

I believe that expectations that are often too consistent not only fail to produce excess investment returns, but may also lead us to great investment risks.

Among the two core main areas of ‘smartphone industry chain’ and ‘mobile Internet’.

The companies listed on our A-share market are somewhat mixed.

Its valuation has not been fully digested by the bear market, and for the past two or three consecutive years, the market has continued to speculate around these two main lines.

I think it is difficult for these two main lines to get out of the sustained independent market for the time being.

There is another reason.

That is the chip structure of these two main areas. For now, it is still very confusing.

It is because everyone knows that these two main lines are the outlets with high certainty in the future, so the financial groups that are temporarily trapped in these two main lines will definitely not easily cut their flesh.

However, they did not leave without cutting their flesh.

The market prices of these two main lines will continue to rise, forming an obvious suppression situation.

As a result, without obvious valuation advantages for these two main lines, there are not many main funds, or active short-term capital groups, to gather in to lift the sedan.

This is why these two main lines are clearly the focus of the future, with all kinds of strong logic and expectations.

However, in the past six months or even a year, it has continued to underperform the market. Except for the independent "Internet Finance" sector, no excess investment income has been generated.

Since 'big consumption', 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical industry', 'coal', 'mobile Internet', 'smartphone industry chain'...these so-called relatively low-level main lines have their well-known investment logic flaws, it is impossible to Really let the funds pull up the market without any scruples.

So, why do we think these core main lines can support the strengthening of the market?

How to complete the replacement of a number of main line market markets with core investment logic such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', 'sub-new stocks', and 'film and television media'?

so……

I believe that the so-called "high-low switching" logic of the market's main line is the main line of the market.

In essence, it is a false proposition.

These are the logical advantages and disadvantages of each main line, as well as the corresponding logical flaws.

Furthermore, when we analyze purely from the index weight and the direction of the market value of the main stocks, we miss the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'.

For the rest of the main lines, in terms of market capitalization, it is difficult to completely drive the market.

You can say that……

If the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index wants to reach 4,000 points, it cannot lack the main focus of the two major weight lines of "big finance" and "big infrastructure".

In other words, before the adjustment of the two core main lines of "big finance" and "big infrastructure" is completed, and before the market investment sentiment and speculation sentiment can be regrouped, it will be difficult for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index to continue to break upward and touch the 4,000 point level. A line of space.

And since the Shanghai Stock Index cannot go up in the short term, it can only adjust downward.

Then, the so-called low-level mainline concepts of 'big consumption', 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical industry', 'coal', 'smartphone industry chain' and 'mobile Internet' cannot drive the market due to basic investment logic flaws. , unable to withstand the market's adjustment at this position, it will naturally be difficult to be alone.

Most of the time, a short-term emotional counterattack fails to drive the entire market.

With the adjustment of the core main lines such as "big finance", "big infrastructure" and "military industry", it will continue to call back and find the bottom until it encounters more solid support, as well as stronger acceptance and copying chassis.

That is to say...

I think the market will probably experience a general decline in the short term.

Before the core lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure' and 'military industry' are adjusted in place, we don't need to follow the many funds in the market who think they are smart, or what everyone generally expects to do. Switch's investment strategy changes and corresponding position adjustments.

Wait patiently……

Waiting for the market to quickly dig a deep hole under the strong stimulation of the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Series' is what we should do now.

Even though the market's basic bull market logic has not been destroyed at present.

Even though the entire market is still in a bull market pattern and logic.

Then, we should not be too eager to buy the bottom and get back the chips we just lost.

In a bull market, it does not mean that the market will not fall, nor does it mean that the investor group will not lose money. In essence... in a bull market, everyone's cognitive requirements will be higher.

Which ones are real gold and which ones are gold-plated fake gold? We still need to carefully identify them. "

"Okay!" Liu Xin nodded and said with a chuckle, "If you put it like this, I understand. It seems that our next main investment goals and investment focus should still be focused on 'big finance' and 'big finance'. "Infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media' are the core main lines."

Fang Xinsheng said with a smile: "Of course, under the background of the bull market and the macro-strategic background of the 'New Era Road and Maritime Silk Road' that the country continues to promote, the two core main lines of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure' , it’s impossible to just reach the current position and end.

At this moment, these major adjustments are being made.

It was only created due to the excessive profit taking in the early stage and the deliberate reduction of positions on a large scale by the 'Yu Hang Group'.

As long as the underlying investment logic is not destroyed, the chip structure will be stabilized again after several core main lines are adjusted to a certain position.

The market will naturally rise.

Development history based on past market conditions.

Often the main trend established from the beginning of a bull market will last throughout the entire bull market.

As for investment, it is easier to obtain excess profits from the beginning without changing the core logic. Therefore, we do not need to adjust our investment ideas. We only need to focus on the two concepts of 'big finance' and 'big infrastructure'. Just the market changes of the big core main line will be enough.

And these two main lines.

As the two core main lines with the largest volume and the highest index weight in the market.

It is enough to carry the funds of our organization. Even if we make a move later than the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Department', it will still be completely late.

After all, we don’t have the worries they have about turning the ship around.

The relevant trading seats of our institution will not have as many concerns as they do when it comes to buying and selling chips. "

"Well, Mr. Fang is right." After stopping all of Fang Xinsheng's analysis of the upcoming market trends and the main financial motivations of the 'Yu Hang Group', Mou Zhengxing thought about it for a moment and agreed very much, " I also think that the market idea of ​​'switching between high and low' is like pseudo logic and is unlikely to form a sustained market trend. On the contrary, the concept of the market continuing to fall is even greater.

Because in fact, with the large-scale reduction of positions of the core main funds of the 'Yu Hang Group', they were eliminated.

The overall bullish sentiment in the market, at least in the short term.

It has completely collapsed.

In addition, after such a long period of market uptrend, profit margins in popular main areas such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', 'sub-new stocks', and 'film and television media' have already accumulated. It is extremely strong, and coupled with the year-end mark, many institutions in our industry, whether they are public institutions or private institutions, have needs for net worth settlement and liquidation settlement.

There is also the matter after the central bank cuts interest rates and lowers the required reserve ratio.

The market's short-term policy expectations are also in a relatively vacuum stage.

Under the influence of so many factors, no matter how you look at it, the Shanghai Stock Index has no room and motivation to continue to rise, and can only continue to adjust downward.

In the face of continuous selling pressure in the popular main areas of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'sub-new stocks', 'film and television media', and 'military industry', in the absence of various favorable factors for long-term growth, .

It is indeed difficult to imagine that 'big infrastructure', 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical industry', 'mobile Internet', and 'smartphone industry chain' are the main industry sectors that are relatively weak and have very limited participation of main funds. Ability to come up with independent market opportunities.

To sum up...

At this time, in terms of investment strategies and trading strategies.

It is undoubtedly much better to reduce positions and take profits, or to be patient enough and wait and see the more clear market trends in the future, than to participate in the idea of ​​​​"switching high and low". "(End of chapter)