Chapter 870: Rebound or reversal?

"Eh... I didn't expect that the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index would return to 3,600 points."

Facing the closing results of the two cities, in the main fund trading room of Zexi Investment Company in Shanghai, Zhou Kan stared at the frozen disks of the two cities and said in surprise: "It seems that the support for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is still quite strong at this position. Yes, and after the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry' and 'film and television media' continued to adjust in the previous few trading days, their internal profit and settlement positions , it has almost cleared up most of it. I feel that the short force suppressing the market is weakening, and the bull force...has begun to regain the market initiative."

"Although the Shanghai Stock Index briefly regained the 3,600-point mark,..." Next to Zhou Kan, Xu Xiang, who was also watching the closing results of the two cities, pondered for a while and said, "The news and fundamentals of the market have not changed. There has been no significant improvement, and the general expectations of the investor group regarding the market have not changed. At the same time, the chip structure of core main areas such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media' , and it is still in a decentralized structure, making it difficult to form an effective concentrated long force.

Analyze from the current news, fundamentals, funding, chip structure... and other factors.

At this time, the two city indexes simply cannot hold up.

The position of 3600 points does not seem to be able to support the market conditions at this time and quickly reverse the market sentiment feedback. "

"But for now, based on the closing results of the two cities today and the trends of the two cities at the end of the day..." Zhou Kan said, "'Big Consumption', 'Smartphone Industry Chain', 'Mobile Internet', 'Medicine" 'Several core main lines have somewhat replaced the 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry' and other major core main lines, showing a concentrated and strong money-making effect. Even the position of 3600 points is not the bottom of the market in the short to medium term. The location should also indicate that the market’s main investment style and investment hotspots are gradually changing, right?”

Xu Xiang said: "At the end of today's trading, the market's investment style and hot spots of speculation have indeed shifted from the core main lines of 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media' in the early stage to 'mobile Internet', 'Smartphone Industry Chain' and other small and medium-cap and growth concept stocks are showing signs of deviation, but...this change in the main market has not yet been recognized by the main short-term capital groups in the market. , and there is no consistent bullish bullish situation on the market.

If we talk about the market's main investment style and the core hot spots of speculation, this has changed.

And if the subsequent main line investment styles and hot spots of speculation will continue to shift in this way... at least for now, this line of logic does not make sense.

Analyze from the aspects of news, fundamental situation, capital and chip structure.

The core main lines of 'Big Finance', 'Big Infrastructure', 'Military Industry', and 'Film and Television Media' are closely related to those of 'Medicine', 'Big Consumption', 'Mobile Internet', and 'Smartphone Industry Chain' which have been relatively resilient recently. Fully analyze the trend structure of industry sectors.

we discover……

In fact, popular main areas such as ‘medicine’, ‘big consumption’, ‘mobile Internet’, and ‘smartphone industry chain’ are among the most popular.

In addition to the short-term chip structure, which is cleaner than the chips in the early popular main areas such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media', in other aspects of factors, it does not have the so-called Advantages, and there is no logical place to attract long-term investment from major funds from all walks of life.

Take the two main lines of ‘medicine’ and ‘big consumption’.

For these two main lines, in the bear market experience of the past few years, the valuations have actually remained at a relatively high position.

Even the current valuation level is significantly higher than the overall valuation level of many popular stocks and popular industry sectors in the main line of "big finance" and "big infrastructure".

As for the two main areas of ‘mobile Internet’ and ‘smartphone industry chain’.

Even more so.

Because the future expectations of these two main areas are obviously bright.

Therefore, the vast investor groups inside and outside the market have never lowered their valuation expectations for the core stocks, related concept sectors, and industry sectors in these two main areas. This has led to the development of these two main concept areas. The overall valuation of relevant popular stocks and industry sectors has always been at a relatively high position.

And because everyone is relatively optimistic about the future expectations of these two main areas.

This has also resulted in the chip structure of these two main areas remaining relatively chaotic.

It's just that these two major main lines have not risen much while the popular main lines such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', 'film and television media'... have continued to surge. The broad investor group has created an expectation of low stagflation.

The emergence of this expectation has just created the short-term rebound in these two main areas.

In the same way, other main concept fields such as 'non-ferrous cycle', 'petrochemical industry', 'animal husbandry', etc. are relatively stagflation and relatively unpopular, and their related conceptual themes.

In the recent market trends, the market performance is obviously stronger than the popular main lines such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media'. This is also the reason.

In other words, due to its advantages in chip structure.

These concept sectors have the power to rebound.

However, the short-term rebound momentum and short-term emotional hype cannot change the actual expectations of this main line area, nor can it drive the market to form a sustained upward momentum and bring the index back to the previous aggressive upward trend and sustained Soaring.

Analyze from the macro and fundamental aspects of the market.

At present, only the main lines of "big infrastructure" and "big finance" can support the continued rise of the market.

Only the two core main lines of "big infrastructure" and "big finance" can have continuous improvement in fundamentals, gradually strengthened future expectations, and increasingly stronger macro trends.

So, looking at it all...

I think that the Shanghai Stock Index can only have a short-term rebound trend at the position of 3600 points.

Rather than the so-called counterattack trend at the end of adjustment.

Faced with the current rebound in the market, we don’t need to pay too much attention. We cannot be blinded by the appearance of a temporary rise in market conditions. We should always see clearly the essential logic and real core driving force of the rising market conditions, and keep a close eye on this essential logic and It takes a change in core motivation.

As for our investment strategy and trading strategy.

For the time being, there is still no need to make any changes.

Just stick to our previous investment strategy and trading strategy.

It will definitely be more appropriate to continue to maintain a low position level and wait patiently for further adjustments in the market and further clarification of the main trend trends before re-opening long positions. "

"Okay." After listening to Xu Xiang's words, Zhou Kan thought for a while, nodded, and said, "Since the boss thinks so, then we will continue to stick to the previous investment and trading strategy and wait for the market to adjust. Let’s see if the Shanghai Stock Index can hold on at 3,600 points.”

"But..." Zhou Kan paused and then said, "Today's transaction volume in the two cities continued to explode. It was tens of billions more than yesterday. This should be a good sign, right?"

Xu Xiang thought about it for a while and said: "It's a good sign, but we can't be too optimistic. The short-term increase in volume at this position can only mean that after falling from 3800 points, many capital groups that were temporarily trapped have initially stopped at this position. The losses have smashed the market, which means that part of the panic market in the market has finally come out after several consecutive days of decline, resulting in a reduction in the selling pressure on the market in the short term.

This is also the reason why the market trend rose rapidly and rebounded out of the deep V in the late trading period today.

However, even though the short-term selling power has weakened.

A large number of major financial groups that can be gathered in core main fields such as 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'military industry', and 'film and television media' have not stabilized, and 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', ' Military industry', 'film and television media'... the chip structure of these popular main line fields is still in chaos.

Some people smashed the market and got out, while others intervened by buying the bottom.

Generally speaking, at this position, the market is still in a stage of intense long-short divergence with intense changes of hands and intense trading.

The market really wants to usher in the end of the adjustment and a reversal of the market trend.

In the future, we still have to look at the continuous changes in quantity and energy.

If the market can form a rebound trend for a few days after the current increase in volume, and then continue to shrink and fall, until the volume shrinks back to the volume standard of 600 to 700 billion, the chips that should be released on the market, and various unsteady gains Profits, unwinding, stop-loss orders... the floating chips are all almost gone.

Then, the market will truly usher in a reversal opportunity when the adjustment ends.

At present, I think the market has only completed the first phase of adjustment, and the second and third phases of adjustment have not yet arrived.

And, technically speaking.

The Shanghai Stock Index has only just pulled back to near the 20-day line.

The number of profit-making orders accumulated in the previous continuous short squeeze, as well as the accumulated number of unwinding orders, can be said to be extremely huge.

The current adjustment range is this.

It is impossible for such a large amount of profit-taking chips to be completely cleared.

No matter from a time or space perspective, the adjustment range is not enough.

Moreover, according to my observation, there is no sign of large-scale buying by the "Yu Hang Group" on the current market. The funds of the "Yu Hang Group" have a good understanding of the market and the timing of the market. In the entire market, , there should be no major financial institution that can be more powerful than it.

There was no movement in this stock after a large-scale exit to take profits.

From a side perspective, this is unlikely to be the end of this round of market adjustment.

Also, in terms of time and space, if this is the end point of this round of market adjustment, then there is no need for the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Group' to build large-scale positions near 3800 points to take profits and quickly reduce positions. Beware of extreme market adjustments.

After all, two to three hundred points is an adjustment within 10%.

For a huge main financial institution like the ‘Yuhang Department’, it has little impact at all. "

"That's true." Zhou Kan nodded and said, "There is really no movement in the 'Yu Hang Group' funds at the moment. This main force fund is really strange... Since the news of the central bank cutting interest rates and RRR cuts in the past few days, After landing, there was really no movement at all, but... we still have to look at the situation of the dragon and tiger rankings in the two cities to know clearly."

With that said, Zhou Kan turned his attention to the dragon and tiger lists of the two cities.

I saw that in the disclosed dragon and tiger lists of the two cities, there was indeed no trace of any trading seats related to the 'Yuhang Department', the main financial institution.

Moreover, it is in the dragon and tiger rankings of the two cities.

Institutional trading seats and total trading volume still show a net selling trend.

On the contrary, the participation of hot money is much more active than the previous two days.

But in general, based on the total turnover of hot money and institutions, the total trading volume on the dragon and tiger lists of the two cities is still showing a substantial net selling trend.

This shows that the rebound in late trading today and the selling of main funds have not significantly weakened.

It also shows that the overall chip structure in the core popular main line areas of the two cities has not been further concentrated. Of course... it also shows that the sustainability of such a rebound is obviously doubtful.

"Alas, there is still no movement of the 'Yu Hang Group', the main force, on the dragon and tiger lists of the two cities!" After the announcement of the dragon and tiger lists of the two cities, at this moment in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, Pingyin Asset Management Trading Center, the main force Fund product manager Chen Shen sighed softly and said, "There are no signs of selling or buying. What is the current trading strategy and investment strategy of this major fund?"

The trend of the main funds of the ‘Yuhang Department’.

It will greatly affect the investment strategies and trading strategies of many major financial institutions in the entire market.

After all, there has been an extreme impact on the market after the large-scale lightening and selling of the 'Yu Hang Series'. Before the main capital trend of the 'Yu Hang Series' was clear, many people in the market originally had the idea of ​​increasing their positions or buying the bottom. The main financial institutions did not dare to act rashly.

This has resulted in ‘big finance’, ‘big infrastructure’, ‘military industry’, ‘film and television media’… these are the main areas where the main funds of the previous ‘Yu Hang Department’ were heavily invested.

The main force's selling has been heavy and the market has been under pressure.

"I think the main funds of the 'Yuhang Series' should still be in a wait-and-see attitude at present." Gao Yixiang, the trading team leader, said, "The market has dropped 200 points from its high level, and the main funds of the 'Yuhang Series' are no longer available. If we continue to sell chips in large quantities, I think there is no need to worry about the extremely negative impact that the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Group' will have on the market if they continue to sell chips on a large scale."

"But waiting and watching... is also a kind of bearish behavior." Wang Jinglun, who is also the leader of the trading team, said, "We can't figure out the specific investment strategy and trading strategy motivation of the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Group'. We are in the specific When it comes to changes in trading strategies, they will always be quite passive.”

Gao Yixiang thought for a moment and said: "Isn't that the case? Looking at the market trend today, it is obvious...the market's main hot spots are still showing signs of change, as long as they don't touch 'big finance', 'big infrastructure', 'Military Industry', 'Film and Television Media'... these are the main areas where the main funds of the 'Yu Hang Group' were heavily invested in the past. In fact, there is no need to worry about the 'Yu Hang Group', the main force of funds, taking profits on a large scale and causing extreme losses to the market. The risk of the trend.” (End of chapter)