Chapter 802 Prevent international capital from speculating on asset prices

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The release of my country's gdp data will have an impact in all aspects, and it is definitely not just as simple as discussions on the Internet and analysis by economists.

First of all, the prices of urgently needed materials in our country may face a wave of rises, such as mineral resources and energy prices will increase a lot.

This is almost predictable. my country's gdp is so huge, but its development is so rapid, it means that our country will have a lot of infrastructure construction, and all of these need the support of mineral resources.

What's more, my country has already imported a large amount of various mineral resources. For mineral resources with long-term agreements, it is difficult to temporarily increase the price, but for mineral resources with a small trading volume, it is very convenient to increase the price.

my country's economic growth is so fast, as is the growth of residents' income, which means that there will be a substantial increase in car sales, and in fact it is.

Then cars need to burn oil, and the industry itself relies heavily on fossil energy, so oil imports occupy an important position in my country's imported commodities.

Although Kirin Energy Industry Group has fuel oil production technology, the current power generation has not reached the expected value. It needs to give priority to ensuring the country's electricity demand, and finally the surplus will be used for fuel oil production.

Therefore, the international oil price will also inevitably increase. As for the increase, it depends on what the countries with pricing power want to do. Anyway, my country currently has no pricing power on international oil.

Due to our country's relatively large demand for energy, the international oil price has risen from about US$30 per barrel to about US$50. Looking at this trend, it is not difficult to rise to US$60.

In addition to these two obvious things, there are many things that will have a knock-on effect, such as the influx of international capital, causing domestic asset prices to skyrocket.

For example, after industrial capital comes in, it basically builds factories to produce goods, hoping to occupy the domestic commodity market. In fact, the overall advantages of this kind of capital outweigh the disadvantages.

However, international hot money and companies purely playing with capital will not do business with peace of mind. Most of them use capital means to inflate the asset price of a certain country, and then let the country fall into false prosperity.

Then expect domestic people and capital to take over these rising assets and earn a wave of price difference. At this time, capital has two choices. The first choice is to continue to look for assets that can be speculated, or to stand still.

The second option is to take the earned money back, commonly known as capital outflow. At this time, whether it is the first or the second option, it will have a great impact on finance.

In particular, the first kind of holding back the troops and withdrawing them in large numbers at the same time will cause serious fluctuations in foreign exchange. For example, our country currently has a fixed exchange rate, and there will be a large amount of foreign exchange losses.

If international capital hypes,

Two types of assets are the most popular. The first is the stock market. Unfortunately, my country's stock market is not large enough to accommodate a large amount of capital. The pool is small, and speculation will be very dangerous.

The second is real estate, and it is the best choice to speculate on domestic real estate prices, because people have money in their hands, in addition to raising their daily consumption standards, they are buying houses.

Therefore, the demand for housing is very large. These international capitals come in, just taking advantage of the fact that domestic people do not have so much money to buy houses, and they first inflate the prices of these properties.

When people need to buy a house, they need to spend more money to buy real estate, and the people still have a serious investment habit of buying up and not buying down. The crazier the capital hype, the crazier the people buy a house.

This method of making money from international capital has been tried and tested in other countries, but it is more difficult to do so in China.

The reason is that a large number of new real estate assets are in the hands of Wancheng Jiye. So far, except for resettlement houses, Wancheng Jiye has not sold any houses, and there are no houses on the market to speculate.

If there are any, it is the houses in the old urban areas of various cities, but these houses are old, and the second is that they are going to live in them, so the hyped prices are meaningless.

If the housing prices in the old city are too high, developers will not develop at all, because it is not worthwhile, or they will exchange houses for houses, which omits the intermediate currency transactions and reduces the hype value.

But the existing real estate is not easy to hype, they can completely hype the land, for the government, the higher the land selling price, the better, because it can increase the government's income.

In fact, many local governments do not have such a far-sighted vision. They are living in the present. As long as the fiscal revenue increases during their term of office and the superficial gdp data looks good, it will be beneficial to them. As for whether the people can afford houses, it is not their priority. .

Although there were a lot of real estate construction in China before, Wancheng Jiye was the only one in this market, and there was not too much competition. Wancheng Jiye had a certain bargaining power over the land.

As a result, although the domestic economy has grown rapidly in the past few years, land prices have not risen sharply, and they have all risen moderately. If international capital intervenes, it may cause land prices to skyrocket.

For them, it doesn't matter what assets to speculate on. As long as it is a scarce resource, it will go up in the foreseeable future. Anyway, to make money, it is natural to speculate on whatever can quickly increase in price.

Although the Kylin Grain and Oil Industry Group under Ye Zishu can industrialize grain production, it seems that there is no need to stick to the red line of cultivated land, and there should be enough land, but the government has the ability to create land scarcity.

Therefore, when the gdp data was announced, Wancheng Jiye responded immediately and used a large amount of funds for land purchases. Before all parties could react, they hoarded a large amount of low-priced land in advance.

Wancheng Jiye already has a large amount of land in its hands. In addition to the developed land, the undeveloped land area in its hands is still as high as 3 billion square meters.

But according to their development speed and huge capital volume, this undeveloped land area is enough for their one-year development, and it won't take long.

At present, the local government has not yet realized how international capital plays, and it will take a certain amount of time for international capital to come in, and they will not rush in all at once. Safe capital needs to see how the outpost capital is doing.

Therefore, this period of time is a blank period. Wancheng Foundation must stockpile a large amount of land in advance, and it must be the land in the core area. No matter how the international capital plays, they will have a way to deal with it.

They received 15 trillion yuan in investment last year. They originally planned to spend another 1 trillion yuan on land purchases this year, and use the remaining funds to develop and operate their businesses.

But now the situation has changed. They temporarily decided to expand the land purchase funds to 5 trillion yuan. If it were a few years ago, such a large amount of funds would be able to sell a lot of land.

It’s just that the land prices in first-tier cities in China have risen sharply, especially in Shenzhen, which is at the forefront of reform and opening up and is close to Hong Kong. The influx of a large amount of Hong Kong capital has caused land prices to rise very fast.

Fortunately, Wancheng Jiye has consciously purchased a large amount of land in first-tier cities before. The land stock in first-tier cities is not bad, but they still need to replenish a lot of land.

According to Ye Zishu's idea, if a city has a population of more than 10 million people, it is necessary to control the city's industries and transfer excess industries to other cities to achieve balanced economic development and avoid excessive concentration of economic resources.

Even in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, he still implements such a policy, so the land acquisition scale of Wancheng Foundation in first-tier cities this time will not be particularly large, with a total investment of about 1 trillion yuan.

The rest of the investment is placed in other cities with more development potential in the country, which are actually the cities where his industries are mainly deployed, or the cities that will be deployed in the future. Although the land prices of these cities have risen at present, they are still acceptable.

The average land price in these cities is generally about 400 square meters per square meter. Wancheng Foundation can buy 10 billion square meters of land if it spends 4 trillion yuan.

If all these lands are fully developed, enough for 400 to 500 million people to live in, with these lands in hand, Wancheng Foundation can basically lay a foundation, and international capital will not be able to make much trouble.

The most fearful thing about this kind of asset speculation is that there are no big players in it, so capital is easy to hype, and all parties will be happy to see the success for their own interests.

But when there is a player with absolute strength, as long as this player has the determination and does not follow the international capital, it means that the international capital will be useless.

Since the size of the financial market is not large, and the real estate market is dominated by one company, land speculation depends on the face of Wancheng Jiye. As a prudent international capital, it generally dare not casually enter the muddy water.

If Wancheng Jiye is willing, they can get the land in their hands, and the price will not increase for 10 years. For capital, it will be a loss-making business, and the gain outweighs the loss.

Then the next step is to acquire domestic enterprises. Now there are two types of domestic enterprises with relatively strong strength. The first type is large state-owned enterprises, which are backed by the government and have advantages in administrative resources.

The second category is the enterprises under the leaf book, which have advantages in technology and capital, and have not yet been listed. International capital can't buy them if they want to buy them, so there is no room for them to develop.

The rest are ordinary private enterprises and local small and medium-sized state-owned enterprises. Since last year, Tidal Investment Company has invested heavily in domestic private enterprises with potential. These private enterprises generally have no shortage of funds.

As for the remaining private enterprises, they are either too small in size or have little potential, otherwise Tidal Investment Company would not be able to ignore them.

What is more troublesome now is the local state-owned enterprises, many of which were half-dead in the past. With the development of the economy, the fiscal revenue of many governments has increased, and the blood transfusion to these enterprises has also increased.

However, the market has fallen behind, and it is difficult to save it. In the past, Ye Zishu was afraid of getting into trouble, so he deliberately avoided this, and for him, the acquisition of these assets did not make much sense.

In addition, there are certain obstacles in the policy, and it has always been in a state of laissez-faire. I just don't know if international capital will attack these local state-owned enterprises after they come in.

Don't think it's impossible, as long as it's profitable, there will never be fewer leading parties and compradors. Ye Zishu asked Tidal Investment Company to assess the risks involved.

According to his idea, since he can't survive, he will be acquired if he is acquired. At worst, his company will go to the ring. But this is just his idea, and we have to see what Tidal Investment Company thinks.

If possible, Tidal Investment Company can properly intervene to disrupt the situation and increase the price of these assets. Even if they accidentally acquire them, Tidal Investment Company can directly transfer them to his company.

He carefully thought about the possible situation in the country, and it seems that all aspects are not bad. International capital coming in to buy domestic assets and drive up asset prices will not have a great effect.

The only thing that can be speculated is living materials. If it was put in the past, the hype of living materials may really be successful. After all, with the development of the economy, the demand for living materials will increase.

But last year, Kirin Industrial Group's production capacity construction was very advanced, but due to energy shortages, these production capacities were not fully utilized, resulting in a sharp rise in market prices.

This year, the companies under the Kirin Industrial Group will not only operate at full capacity the production capacity built last year, but will also expand production capacity this year, not to mention meeting domestic demand, and may even export some of it by then.

At that time, Kirin Industrial Group welcomes these international capitals to speculate on these materials, so as to sell them at a high price, and then let the market lower the price, so that the materials in their hands cannot be sold at all, and can only be sold to the market at a low price.

There are only a few types of daily necessities that are very important, such as grain, oil, rice noodles, meat, and vegetables. As long as these items are stabilized, no matter how high the prices of other items rise, it will not affect the overall situation. On the contrary, there are ways to deal with them.

These fields are the home field of Kirin Industrial Group. As long as they are willing, their production capacity can be expanded indefinitely. If they want to hype in this field, it is no different from courting death.

In terms of grain, Kylin Grain and Oil Industry Group intends to expand its grain production capacity to 100 million tons this year, because the domestic agricultural population has lost a large number of people, and there is no problem with this production capacity being digested by the market.

The production capacity of edible oil will increase to 50 million tons. In addition to meeting the consumption of the domestic edible oil market, it can also be exported in large quantities to foreign countries. If there is no accident, this production capacity has reached its peak at present, and even if it increases in the future, it will not be very large.

In terms of meat, Kylin Agricultural Development Group intends to expand the production capacity of various meats to 50 million tons this year. In addition to the original domestic meat production, it can meet the growing meat demand of the people.

It's not that they don't want to continue to increase meat production capacity, but that the cost of building such a production plant is too high. A meat plant with an annual production capacity of 1 million tons will cost as much as 10 billion yuan.

A production capacity of 50 million tons means that it needs to invest 500 billion yuan. Although the Kirin Agricultural Development Group has received a lot of funds, it cannot only invest in this, but also needs to invest in other agricultural development fields.

For example, the high-standard temperature-controlled greenhouses they built themselves need to expand the total area to 5 million mu this year, an increase of 4 million mu over last year, and the investment scale is 1.2 trillion yuan.

There is also investment in agricultural cooperation projects. It is estimated that about 300 billion yuan will be invested this year. Their group company alone will invest as much as 2 trillion yuan this year.

If the Kirin Industrial Group hadn't really made a lot of money last year, otherwise there really wasn't so much money for them, and Tidal Investment Company wouldn't invest in them this year.

Their funds need to be invested in domestic industrial upgrading and transformation, which consumes a lot of funds. Therefore, only the headquarters of Kirin Agricultural Development Group has invested.

With such a huge production capacity, he really doesn't know why international capital can speculate on these assets. This is no different from seeking death. In short, the overall situation is stable, so he is more at ease.

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