Chapter 920 Winning a Big Victory in the Energy Futures War

,!

On May 1, a domestic energy futures exchange denominated in local currency was officially established in Shanghai. Futures products include crude oil, petroleum, refined oil, natural gas, coal and other products.

It almost includes most of the existing fossil energy products, and the market is traded in RMB, which can be regarded as the first of its kind in the current international energy trading rules.

Tidal Investment Company registered as a trader immediately, and completed a transaction volume of 1 billion yuan that day. Although it cannot be compared with a mature energy futures exchange, it is still a good start.

In fact, these transactions are between state-owned oil companies and Tidal Investment Corporation, and international energy exporters and futures traders are on the sidelines.

The reason is simple. Although my country's economy is already the largest in the world, its international influence is still much lower. The international energy market denominated in US dollars still occupies a dominant position, and the old m still has a strong influence.

Yin Lak's lesson from the past is still there. Energy exporting countries, especially oil exporting countries, dare not bet casually. They need to wait and see for a while to see the limelight.

Although old m can't do anything to us, it doesn't mean they can't do anything to other countries. After years of operation, they still have relatively strong control over the world.

As for the lack of participation of futures traders, the main reason is that the number of futures is small, and they are not sure how far this newly established energy futures exchange can go, and most of them are also in a wait-and-see state.

my country itself is a pure importer in the international energy market. Although it also produces oil, the oil is not enough for the country. Although there are a lot of coal reserves, mining has basically stopped now.

Coal is basically used for power generation and smelting. Domestic power generation is now basically solar power and hydropower. The proportion of thermal power generation is very low, and there is a trend of further reduction.

Although there are still a large number of iron and steel smelting enterprises that use traditional coal-fired energy as energy, the new iron and steel smelting enterprises represented by Kirin Basic Industry Group all use pure electric smelting technology, and their dependence on coal is very low.

With better and cheaper energy sources, heavily polluting and expensive coal will naturally be phased out. This is a development trend, and the country and enterprises will naturally not oppose each other. Domestic coal mining has basically not expanded, and has even been reduced.

What to do if there are not enough futures for trading, the current method is that state-owned enterprises use their own energy for trading, and then purchase energy from the international market.

There is no big problem in doing so, and it is very common in international trade, but the problem is that the price of oil futures purchased from abroad is much higher than the domestic futures price.

Now the international crude oil price is as high as 120 US dollars a barrel, while the crude oil futures trading price in the domestic futures market is only 870 yuan a barrel, which is equivalent to 100 US dollars, and the price difference has reached 20 US dollars.

This kind of transaction does not exist under normal circumstances. No one will spend money to subsidize others. The reason why they do this must be unusual.

At present, it is mainly a transaction between a domestic state-owned oil company and Tidal Investment Company. There is an oral agreement between the two. Although Tidal Investment Company purchased futures products at a low price, it will make up the price difference after the transaction is completed.

The purpose is self-evident, it is to solve two problems, the first is to solve the problem of insufficient oil products in our country, only in this way can we expand the futures trading volume.

The second solution is the scarcity of futures traders. Since they don’t come, they should be lured with profits. Seeing such a huge arbitrage space, they will remain indifferent without capital.

Of course, there are two prerequisites for doing so. The first prerequisite is to judge that futures prices will definitely drop sharply in the future. They are trading futures, not spot goods.

On the day of futures delivery, if the spot price is lower than the futures price, in fact, if you sell at such a futures price, not only will you not lose money, you will still make money.

The second prerequisite is that Kirin Energy Industrial Group's fossil energy production progress is basically carried out according to the original plan, and it is expected to start production in June.

The second premise gives confidence to the first premise, which can ensure that future international energy futures, especially oil futures, will experience a cliff-like decline.

At present, the futures they trade are all short-term futures contracts, and the time card is quite special. The 870 yuan per barrel of crude oil futures is in July, and the subsequent futures prices are lower. The August crude oil futures are only 600 yuan, which is less than 80 US dollars.

September futures fell further, only 400 yuan, less than 50 US dollars per barrel in US dollars, and then basically maintained this price fluctuation, and occasionally fell below the 400 yuan mark.

The reason why it continues to fall is that the price of 384 yuan per barrel of crude oil is the normal profit margin of Kirin Energy Industry Group. Although it is too low, it is profitable, but it is not cost-effective.

In this way, without the participation of Kirin Energy Industry Group, the price of crude oil futures has been reduced to such an extent in terms of futures transactions between domestic oil companies and Tidal Investment Corporation.

This made the capital who didn't care much about my country's energy futures market, as if they saw blood. Such a huge interest rate difference would make everyone's eyes shine when they see it.

Just relying solely on my country's oil production, the volume of futures trading is still too small, and it is difficult for international capital to obtain huge benefits.

Then there was a strange scene. The oil-producing countries and international capital that were still on the sidelines before announced their entry into my country's energy futures market.

The reason for doing this is actually very understandable. The purpose of the oil-producing countries' entry is actually to increase the number of oil futures. No increase in the number means that the transaction volume is very low.

As for whether the oil-producing countries came in voluntarily, or someone pushed behind it, it is unknown. For Tidal Investment Company, as long as it comes in, everything else is trivial.

It was already mid-May at this time, and as more crude oil futures entered the market, a large amount of international capital also flocked in, and it was very consistent, that is, to go long.

As a result, in the entire energy futures market, only Tidal Investment Company is shorting crude oil futures, while the others are long crude oil futures, which is quite strange.

This strange situation did not make these capitals nervous, but even more excited, because the peers agreed with their views, and only one company, Tidal Investment Company, was shorting alone, so their confidence naturally surged.

As more crude oil futures entered the market, domestic oil companies began to withdraw, because they no longer needed to support the scene at this time. Some oil companies also began to short crude oil futures with Tidal Investment Company.

By mid-June, the amount of crude oil entering the domestic energy futures market was as high as 1 billion tons, accounting for one-third of global energy transactions. This is an abnormal phenomenon.

A newly established energy futures trading market has facilitated a trading volume of more than one trillion U.S. dollars in just one or two months, which is simply unimaginable.

It is a pity that international capital is not satisfied with such a huge arbitrage space. In the context of the global financial crisis, a large number of international capital needs a place to replenish its damaged strength.

What they are thinking now is not safety, but wanting to eat all at once, and our country's economy is thriving, coupled with a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, so many capitals, and even the country, have different ideas.

So some capital took the initiative to come to Tidal Investment Company to sign a betting agreement with the futures price on the market as the underlying object. By doing so, it can be separated from the futures itself and run purely with capital, and the amount of capital that can be leveraged will increase.

They are not afraid that Tidal Investment Company will default and go bankrupt if its strength is weak, because according to the regulations, if they want to trade on the domestic energy futures exchange, they must remit the funds to a designated domestic bank account.

Although the betting between them is not considered an on-site transaction, they can sign a fund escrow agreement, which can ensure that they can obtain benefits and will not default.

They don't care how Tidal Investment Company's funds come from, whether it's their own funds or borrowed leverage from the bank, it doesn't matter to them.

In fact, a lot of their funds are also obtained through bank leverage. It is impossible for them to have such a huge cash flow in a short period of time, and the benefit efficiency is too low. Only by using leverage can they earn excess profits.

These capitals came to the door proactively, and Tidal Investment Company naturally couldn't wait for them, and they never refused. The scale of the signed funds was getting bigger and bigger, more than twice the amount of on-site transactions, and the amount was as high as 2 trillion US dollars.

The behavior of Tidal Investment Company has made many capitals and countries believe that there is state support behind it, otherwise it is impossible for a private investment company to have such a strong financial strength.

This made many capitals and countries very excited. As long as Tidal Investment Company suffers large-scale losses, it means that domestic banks have suffered large-scale losses, and the domestic economy is likely to collapse.

This gamble made Ye Shu speechless when he heard it. It was simply too crazy. This was something he had never thought of before. He thought it would be great to have trillions of dollars in capital participation.

But now, on-site and off-site, the amount of funds involved exceeds 3 trillion US dollars, and the current international crude oil futures price is as high as 140 US dollars.

If the futures price really drops to around US$40 or US$50 in the future, and the spread in the middle is as high as hundreds of US dollars, he can't even imagine how it will end at that time.

It will be July soon, and Kirin Energy Industrial Group has actually put into production a considerable part of refined oil, but it is kept secret and is still accumulating inventory.

In this crude oil futures war, Kirin Energy Industry Group did not receive any attention, because they did not have any fossil energy business before, and instead needed to import natural gas from the international market.

Therefore, everyone automatically ignores them, but they do not know that they are the real protagonists in this crude oil futures war, and these international capitals will also pay a heavy price for their neglect.

In order to prevent the other party from playing tricks, when making the bet, although the signed agreement is based on crude oil as the subject matter, in fact, as long as it is crude oil and derived fossil energy, it can be used.

This was specially added by Tidal Investment Company, because Kirin Energy Industrial Group produces refined oil instead of crude oil. For them, it is not impossible to produce oil, but it is not cost-effective.

Of course, the process will definitely not be as simple as mentioned above. There are a large number of futures financial trading operations in the middle, and the impact is no longer limited to the domestic market, but the entire international energy market.

July is approaching quietly, and everyone is watching the futures delivery in July. The futures contract reached by Tidal Investment Company and domestic oil companies was actually delivered at a price of about 870 yuan per barrel.

The reason is that at the beginning of July, Kirin Energy Industry Group officially issued an announcement, telling the outside world that they had mastered the technology of producing fossil energy from electric energy, and realized industrialized production.

This news is a blockbuster in the global energy market. If other countries have mastered this technology, it will not be so powerful. The reason is that electricity also needs energy to produce.

However, my country's energy is not produced by other fossil energy sources, but solar power generation occupies an absolute position, which shows that it does not depend on fossil energy sources and can continuously produce electricity.

Moreover, they also announced the production cost. The production cost of gasoline per liter is only 3 yuan. Such a low price is in stark contrast to the current international crude oil market price.

Not to mention the price drop in the domestic energy futures market, the price of the global energy market has also dropped following the news. The July futures delivery price is basically in sync with the domestic market.

July is not bad. The production volume announced by Kirin Energy Industry Group in July is not very large, but their follow-up plan is very scary. They even announced that they will build an industrialized facility with an annual production capacity of 1 billion tons of refined oil. .

It even added that if necessary, they can continue to expand production, and their newly added power is sufficient to support more energy production tasks.

This is the blockbuster. As a result, crude oil futures prices fell off a cliff after August, falling directly to $50 a barrel, and the decline became more severe as it went down, falling to $40 a barrel in September.

If you haven't recalled it at this time, you are really stupid. International capital and some countries with ulterior motives know where our calm confidence comes from.

Of course, they can also ask other oil-exporting countries to reduce oil production, but oil-exporting countries will obviously not agree. Compared with making less money, losing the global market is obviously more difficult for them to accept.

If they really dare to cut oil production on a large scale, Kirin Energy Industry Group can continue to build energy production facilities on a large scale and seize their international market.

Except for oil, other industries in these countries are not very good. If they lose their oil income, they are nothing, and it is even a question of whether they can maintain their country.

But our country is different. Even if there is no international energy market, our country's economy can develop normally.

Originally, the price of oil at around US$50 was a normal price, and they could also obtain normal benefits. The previous high energy prices were not a normal phenomenon.

Previously, a large number of futures contracts in the market were signed in the form of refined oil products. The reduction of crude oil production alone cannot solve the fundamental problem of this crisis, because the initiative is in the hands of Kirin Energy Industry Group.

Feeling bad, the international capital started self-help mode one after another, and took the initiative to come to the door to end the betting contract with Tidal Investment Company in advance to reduce losses.

Because they don't know whether these energy futures will continue to fall. If they continue to fall, their losses will be greater. It is better to complete the contract ahead of time.

Although Kirin Energy Industry Group said that the cost of gasoline per liter is 3 yuan, no one knows how much it actually is, and if necessary, it can be further reduced, because the initiative is in the hands of Kirin Energy Industry Group.

Tide Investment Company will naturally not refuse the capital that comes to the door and wants to end the contract early, because the longer the time is delayed, the greater the variables, and it is the best choice to settle in advance.

It's just that when they heard that the other party wanted to end the contract at the July futures price, Tidal Investment Corporation felt incredible, and they felt that their sickle was not sharp enough?

The futures price in July is equivalent to $100 per barrel of crude oil. Although it has dropped by $40 from the peak period, Tidal Investment Company has also made a lot of money, but it obviously did not meet their psychological expectations.

The futures price in August has dropped to 80 US dollars, and there is a further downward trend, and they intend to let the price fall further, they only need to let Kirin Energy Industrial Group announce the production capacity of refined oil in August.

After rejecting the other party, Tidal Investment Company immediately communicated with Kirin Energy Industry Group and confirmed that their monthly production capacity of refined oil has reached 85 million tons, which is slightly more than the designed annual production capacity.

In fact, they still have a 30% production capacity margin. Energy is the economic lifeline of the country, and it is impossible to design it completely according to market demand. There must be a certain margin to deal with emergencies.

After the communication between the two parties, Kirin Energy Industry Group immediately announced their production capacity data for August, which immediately attracted widespread attention.

After calculation, they found that Kirin Energy Industrial Group's production capacity construction was so fast, far exceeding everyone's expectations, which revealed two important information.

The first message is that their energy production technology is very mature, and the industrialization technology is also very mature, otherwise the production capacity would not be able to expand so rapidly.

The second message is that they have planned for a long time. No matter how mature the production capacity is, infrastructure construction will take time. The scheduled production capacity was completed in August, and it was slightly exceeded.

If it hadn't been in progress long ago, it would have been impossible to achieve such a level. With the announcement of this news, the international crude oil futures price, which was hovering around US$80 in August, fell directly to US$50, and there is a further downward trend.

Seeing this situation, the capital that was in the contract with Tidal Investment Company directly gave up struggling, and came to the door again, wanting to end the contract early, they have no hope in sight.

In the end, after several rounds of negotiations, the end price of the contract was set at 45 US dollars, which is 390 yuan. Although the loss was still heavy, it can be regarded as recovering a little loss.

Sure enough, after the signing of the contract, the international crude oil futures price fell to 45 US dollars per barrel. Analysts believe that there is a possibility of further decline, and it will stay at around 40 US dollars per barrel.

The reason is that the refined oil products of Kirin Energy Industry Group have been supplied to domestic use one after another, which has reduced my country's imports of international oil, and the global crude oil production capacity is seriously overcapacitated.

In order to stimulate oil sales, oil-producing countries can only promote sales by cutting prices. Although production reduction is an option, it takes time, and the amount of production reduction needs to be negotiated by multiple countries.

Otherwise, if this country reduces production, other countries will increase production instead of reducing production, which means giving up the market. This is obviously unacceptable, and it is necessary to negotiate and act in unison.

After Tidal Investment Company ended the off-exchange contract, it began to choose to gradually withdraw from the on-exchange market. Calculated by the on-exchange futures price, they are still making a lot of money, so there is no reason to continue to be nostalgic.

Moreover, energy companies in many countries have also begun to purchase refined oil from my country's energy futures market. After this incident, the domestic energy futures market has completely become one of the world's major energy futures trading markets.

After statistics and calculations later, Tidal Investment Co., Ltd. has gained a total of 2 trillion US dollars in revenue from the global energy futures market this time, becoming the biggest winner of this futures war.