Chapter 146 The economic crisis is coming

"Your Majesty, your prediction is simply amazing. The US government has begun to suspend railway construction. According to our investigation, many US railway companies are currently facing bankruptcy risks, and the economic crisis may be coming soon." The director of the Royal Security Intelligence Bureau, Kadir, reported to Carlo with excitement.

"Oh? Really? What about the situation in other countries? Has Spain been affected as well?" Carlo was also looking forward to hearing this and asked his own questions in succession.

Since the government work report meeting, Carlo has focused all his attention on the economic crisis that is about to break out in 1873.

The Royal Security Intelligence Bureau even went out in full force to collect intelligence in European countries and America to determine the time when the economic crisis will break out in various countries.

The main outbreak location of this economic crisis is in the United States, but European countries are also affected, and the impact lasts for a long time.

Carlo is worried that because the Franco-Prussian War broke out and ended earlier, the economic crisis in 1873 may break out earlier or later.

It is very necessary for Spain to prevent this economic crisis, and it cannot be sloppy at all. This is also the reason why Carlo directly asked the Royal Security Intelligence Bureau to pay close attention to the economic trends of various countries, because it is possible to simply judge whether an economic crisis will break out and the approximate time of the outbreak from the stock market and industry trends of various countries.

To put it bluntly, the economic crisis of capitalism is that production far exceeds demand, which seriously damages the market.

It is also very simple to judge whether an economic crisis will break out, that is, to see the situation of various countries and industries, whether they will face a crisis of large-scale bankruptcy.

The economic development of this era has not been fully regulated, and the impact of the economic crisis is extremely broad, and it may even cause a chain reaction in various industries and countries.

Under the continuous attention of the Royal Security Intelligence Bureau, the economic situation in the United States has finally changed abnormally.

Why focus on the United States? Because in addition to the fact that the United States was the most affected country in the economic crisis of 1873, another major reason is that the United States is a beneficiary of the Second Industrial Revolution.

Carlo is deeply aware of the threat of the United States. Although the United States is only a big country with good industry and economy at this time, the potential of this country is absolutely extremely strong.

Since he came to the time when the United States has not yet become completely strong, Carlo naturally cannot let the United States become stronger.

Even if the European powers are too powerful, they will not pose too much of a threat if other European countries hold each other back in the future.

But Americans are different. If the United States becomes truly powerful, there will be no country in North America that can threaten the United States.

North America and South America will become the back garden of the United States. With the barrier of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, no country will be able to threaten the status of the United States.

Fortunately, there is still a long time before the United States truly rises, and there are many opportunities to limit the rise of the United States.

It has to be admitted that the fastest way to develop in this era is to build railways. Because a small railway is related to various industries, the most important of which is heavy industries such as steel.

Steel is related to the production, mining and smelting of coal and iron ore. Building railways can directly promote the development of the entire heavy industry and allow the country to quickly enter the fast lane of development.

This is what the United States did. In the eight years from 1865 to 1873, the output of pig iron in the United States increased from 755,000 tons to 2.323 million tons, an increase of more than 2 times, which is quite exaggerated.

Coal production increased from 22.159 million tons to 51.917 million tons, an increase of 1.3 times. From 1865 to 1872, the total mileage of newly built railways in the United States reached 31,092 miles, which is more than 50,000 kilometers.

It took 7 years to build a full 50,000 kilometers of railways. What an exaggerated data?

Spain's current railway mileage has not exceeded 7,000 kilometers, and the total railway mileage of super powers such as Britain, Germany and France is only 20,000 to 30,000 kilometers.

The total mileage of railways built by Americans in these 7 years is the sum of the total mileage of German and French railways, and twice the total mileage of British railways.

With such an exaggerated scale of railway construction, it is impossible for the economic crisis in 1873 not to break out. Moreover, the funds for the construction of railways by Americans did not all come from the United States. More than half of the investment came from European countries, with the largest number coming from Britain, France, the Netherlands and Germany.

This is also one of the reasons why the economic crisis that broke out in the United States affected Europe. After all, the capital invested in the United States by these countries is real money, and the bankruptcy of American railway companies will naturally affect the capital operations of these countries.

Fortunately, Spain's domestic capital strength is not large, so naturally it will not participate in the investment of American capital.

The collapse of the US railway industry will not have much impact on Spain. After all, Spain only builds 300-400 kilometers of railways each year, which basically will not attract the attention of other countries' capital.

At present, Spain's railway construction adopts two methods, one is direct government investment, and the other is to issue railway bonds to domestic capital and people.

The disadvantage is that there is really little money available for railway construction, and the capital and people in Spain can't raise much money.

But the advantage is that the construction cost of the railway is within the country's affordable range, and the construction of the railway will not cause negative impacts such as economic crises.

However, Spain's development is relatively slow, but if it can stay out of the economic crisis, it can use this period of time to develop faster.

At the same time, Spain, which has not suffered too much economic crisis, can also attract the attention of capital from other countries, so that domestic development can have more capital to promote.

However, development is development. In the construction of Spain, whether it is Carlo or Prime Minister Primo, they will always pay attention to the influence of capital.

Spain certainly allows capital to exist, but it does not allow capital to have too much power, and it does not allow capital to influence the government through its own power.

In the future, the capital that has a greater influence will only be the capital of the royal family and the capital of the government. The combination of the two official capitals can easily control the workers in Spain and turn Spain into a constitutional monarchy supported by the working class and peasant class.

According to the current Royal Security Intelligence Agency's investigation of the United States, the economic crisis will break out sooner or later, and it may even break out within a year.

Since last year, the construction of railways in the United States has begun to slow down, and the stock market of the railway industry is not so profitable.

Since it has been confirmed that the economic crisis is coming, the most important thing at present is naturally to expand its own capital reserves frantically.

Because the current monetary systems of various countries generally adopt the gold standard, even if they are affected by the economic crisis, the depreciation of the currency is not large.

In some cases, the currency will even appreciate. After all, the value of gold is relatively stable. In a more chaotic moment like an economic crisis, it will only appreciate and not depreciate.

There is only one reason to expand the capital reserve, that is, to prepare as much money as possible to buy the bottom after the economic crisis breaks out.

The outbreak of the economic crisis means that many companies and enterprises will go bankrupt, and this is also the lowest value of the value of these enterprises and companies.

Carlo can easily acquire these companies with less funds. Whether it is staying in the local area to continue to develop or shipping important equipment and means of production back to Spain, it is a sure thing to make money.

In fact, Carlo also thought about reminding the Austro-Hungarian government and the Italian government in advance to prepare for the economic crisis, but after thinking for a long time, he finally gave up.      Advance notice may cause unexpected things, which is not cost-effective for Carlo. Moreover, the economic crisis is borne by various governments, and the impact on the royal family is not that great.

Compared with the Spanish royal family, the Austro-Hungarian royal family and the Italian royal family are obviously more influential. They can deal with this economic crisis more easily, and there is no need to create extra trouble for themselves.

Even if the royal families of the two countries suffer heavy losses in this economic crisis, Carlo can help them in the future through interest-free or low-interest loans, so there is no need to take such a big risk.

Capital reserves and gold reserves are the two most important things in an economic crisis.

The former can purchase low-priced assets from other countries and obtain many industrial equipment and means of production.

The latter can be used as the most valuable capital reserve to prevent domestic banks from running and aggravating the economic crisis in Spain.

"Continue to pay attention to the economic conditions of various countries, and report in time if there is a possibility of an economic crisis.

In addition, investigate companies in the United States and European countries. I need a specific document." Carlo ordered.

After the economic crisis broke out completely, the most important thing was to acquire companies and factories in Europe and the United States.

But the factories in these countries add up to at least tens of thousands, or even more than 100,000.

In this case, if there is no proper investigation, it is very likely that the shell companies that caused the economic crisis will be purchased, rather than excellent companies that truly own equipment and a large amount of means of production, as well as many skilled workers.

Buying a company with real assets can not only obtain a large amount of equipment and means of production, but also recruit several excellent workers to come to Spain.

But if you buy a shell company, in addition to several bankrupt railway projects, you may only get the company's IOUs.

Hearing Carlo's order, Kadir, director of the Royal Security Intelligence Bureau, nodded very solemnly and said as if to guarantee: "Yes, Your Majesty. I will investigate the factories and enterprises in Europe and the United States, and write a report to you."

Carlo is quite confident in the ability of the Royal Security Intelligence Bureau. Even the assassination of Prime Minister Primo was investigated with the assistance of the Royal Security Intelligence Bureau. Whether it is domestic monitoring or foreign intelligence investigation, the Royal Security Intelligence Bureau has quite good capabilities.

Under Carlo's investment at all costs, the Royal Security Intelligence Bureau has become the largest intelligence department in Spain, and its intelligence capabilities are also quite excellent.

At present, there are more than a thousand intelligence personnel who are scattered in Spain and Europe and the United States, bringing a lot of intelligence information and first-hand news to Spain.

These intelligence data can also help Carlo better judge the situation and happenings in various countries, so as to prepare for Spain's response.

In addition to the thousands of intelligence personnel, there are even thousands of non-staff intelligence personnel cooperating with the Royal Security Intelligence Bureau.

These people together form the Royal Security Intelligence Bureau's intelligence network, allowing Carlo to learn the latest news happening around the world and the latest policies of various governments in Madrid.

Letting the Royal Security Intelligence Agency investigate the corporate data of European and American countries will enable Carlo to more clearly identify whether these companies are suitable for acquisition.

After all, only truly valuable companies are worth acquiring. Those railway companies that are established just to catch up with the wave of railway construction, and other companies that have no technology and are established simply to make money, are naturally not on Carlo's acquisition list.

For Carlo, such factories without too many means of production and excellent technical workers can be opened at any time as long as he wants.

But those factories with unique production technology and excellent production workers cannot be bought with money at ordinary times.

Only in times of economic crisis, only when these factories go bankrupt, can we obtain all the shares of these factories and enterprises with very little funds, and then transfer their equipment, technology and workers to Spain as much as possible.

Of course, while paying attention to the economic trends and stock market fluctuations of various countries, the two major stock exchanges in Spain must also be paid attention to.

Although the scale of the Madrid Stock Exchange and the Barcelona Stock Exchange is not large, they are stock exchanges after all, and there are various entrepreneurial activities and securities issuance.

In 1872 alone, the two major stock exchanges in Spain had more than 70 entrepreneurial activities and securities issuances, with a total amount of 46.51 million pesetas.

If we do not pay too much attention to the securities trading in Spain, the economic crisis caused by the stock exchanges in other European countries is likely to affect the stock exchanges in Madrid and Barcelona.

Spain's capital system is inherently fragile, and even if it is only affected by a smaller economic crisis, it will be a devastating blow to Spain's fragile capital.

In order to protect domestic capital, it is necessary to impose certain restrictions on stock trading in Madrid and Barcelona, ​​and to conduct more stringent screening of companies that issue securities to ensure that no companies that are established just for securities trading will appear in Spain.

This is not groundless. Because of the marriage relationship with the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the economic exchanges between Spain and the Austro-Hungarian Empire are also closer.

The entrepreneurial activities and securities issuance of the Vienna Stock Exchange are more frequent than those of the two major stock exchanges in Madrid, and the total amount of funds involved is also greater.

In 1872, the entrepreneurial activities and securities issuance of the Vienna Stock Exchange totaled more than 200 times, which is three times the sum of the two major stock exchanges in Spain.

Although such a scale looks gratifying, it is not a good thing. Due to the lack of supervision, a large part of these banks and construction companies were established for speculation.

After these banks and construction companies that were specifically for speculation poured into the Vienna Stock Exchange, they did create a short-term prosperity.

But if faced with the impact of the economic crisis, these companies will definitely face bankruptcy at the first time. The bankruptcy of a large number of companies will inevitably affect the overall trading volume of the Vienna Stock Exchange, leaving the entire stock market in the red.

Then there are all kinds of chain reactions. Because the entire stock exchange market lacks supervision, the chain reaction is very rapid and fatal.

By the time the Austro-Hungarian government reacted, perhaps the economic crisis had destroyed the Vienna Stock Exchange and a large number of shell companies that were only for speculation.

If there were no such shell companies that were only for speculation, the order of the stock exchange could be maintained even if the economic crisis came.

Especially for a stock market like Spain, because the overall scale is not large, the impact of the economic crisis is destined not to be too serious.

Sorry for the late update.