#1405 - Geopolitical game

With the advent of the C939, the stock prices of almost all aviation-related companies in the UK stock market plummeted.

The stock prices of Airbus and Boeing also fell upon hearing the news, clearly indicating that the market believes the C939 will pose a strong challenge to the Boeing 777 and Airbus A350.

In recent years, Boeing and Airbus models have already been at a disadvantage in competition with the C919 and C929, even though both Boeing and Airbus have adopted price reductions to enhance the competitiveness of their respective models, they have failed to undermine the C919 and C929!

To cope with the challenges, Boeing and Airbus have refrained from large-scale dividends in recent years, instead increasing investment in research and development to create more advanced models and enhance product competitiveness.

To reduce product costs, Boeing and Airbus have had to increase the proportion of parts purchased from China, which in turn has negatively impacted their other corresponding suppliers.

The global aviation market is only so big; with one more competitor, the pie everyone can eat gets smaller.

This is self-evident!

Previously, there were only two major players in the passenger aircraft sector globally: Boeing of the United States and Airbus of Europe.

But since Guifei joined the fray and gradually became the third player, Boeing and Airbus have naturally seen a reduction in their market share in China. Over the years, Boeing and Airbus have found it increasingly difficult to secure orders for civil airliners from China.

Moreover, COMAC, which was established later, competes with Boeing and Airbus in Southeast Asia, South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Russia, and Latin America, taking away a portion of their orders.

All of this has resulted in fewer orders for Boeing and Airbus, naturally leading to a continuous decline in their revenue and profits.

To the point that Boeing and Airbus have already undergone three rounds of layoffs.

And just at this moment, the British are acting as the European troublemakers, increasing their influence in Ukraine.

The situation in Ukraine is becoming increasingly turbulent, with the looming threat of another color revolution.

As early as 2003, Ukraine experienced a color revolution known as the 'Orange Revolution.' This was a protest movement triggered by a presidential election fraud case, symbolized by orange chestnut flowers (the city flower of Kyiv), demanding a recount and election monitoring. In reality, it was a behind-the-scenes maneuver by Europe and the United States to promote pro-Western Ukrainian politicians to power and seize the highest authority in Ukraine. Ultimately, the pro-Western Viktor Yushchenko defeated the pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych.

This 'Orange Revolution' was touted by Europe and the United States as the largest and most peaceful democratic movement in Ukrainian history and was regarded as one of the most successful cases of color revolution.

Ultimately, this was a political game between Europe and the United States and Russia on Ukrainian soil, with Europe and the United States winning this round.

As for Yushchenko, who came to power, he failed to effectively solve Ukraine's economic, social, and political problems during his tenure.

Europe and the United States and Russia played another game in 2010, resulting in the pro-Western Yushchenko losing to the pro-Russian Yanukovych, and Russia regained a point.

Now, many politicians in Ukraine are demanding that Yanukovych sign a trade agreement with the European Union to strengthen ties with Europe, ultimately joining the EU. The call for Ukraine to join the EU is constantly growing.

Russia will naturally not stand idly by and watch Ukraine break away from Russia and join Europe, or simply put, join the United States. The geopolitical stakes here are even more brutal and intense.

Yanukovych refused to sign a trade agreement with the European Union, and pro-Western politicians began to stir up trouble, organizing protests, symbolized by the blue and yellow EU flag, demanding the government step down and strengthen ties with Europe.

The United States and the United Kingdom did not actively step forward but instead pushed the European Union to the forefront.

France and Germany almost simultaneously issued statements, saying that Ukraine was still far from being able to join the EU, as they did not want to trigger a fierce conflict with Russia over Ukraine.

However, within the EU, the United Kingdom expressed its welcome to Ukraine joining the EU. Similarly, pro-American countries in the EU also publicly spoke out, welcoming Ukraine to join the EU and become a member of this big family.

The entire protest movement lasted for several months and evolved into violent clashes and bloodshed.

Finally, with the support of the United States and other Western countries, Yanukovych was forced to flee Ukraine, and pro-Western * * * * came to the fore.

This color revolution is considered the most intense and divisive political crisis in Ukrainian history and one of the most controversial and consequential cases in the wave of color revolutions.

This color revolution in Ukraine has exacerbated various contradictions and antagonisms within Ukraine, such as between the east and west, Russian-speaking and non-Russian-speaking regions, and pro-Russian and anti-Russian factions, and has triggered a series of disastrous consequences.

The first was the Crimean region, where the Crimean parliament declared independence from Ukraine. The entire Crimean region held a referendum, and according to the results of 100% of the ballots, 96.77% of voters who participated in the vote supported Crimea joining the Russian Federation, with a turnout rate of 83.1%. Then, Russia approved the treaty for Crimea to join the Russian Federation.

The establishment of the Republic of Crimea and its accession to the Russian Federation were strongly condemned and protested by Western countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom, which did not recognize the Crimean referendum.

The Russian side mocked, saying that the United States, etc., could hold referendums in other places, such as Kosovo, but the people of the Crimean region could not hold their own referendum?

The geopolitical game between the two sides has further intensified.

Even France and Germany have been swept up in this wave.

After all, France and Germany are now the leaders of the EU and must consider the opinions of all European countries. Today, many European countries cannot help but recall the fear of the Tsarist Russia's 'European steamroller'.

China is holding a meeting to study the situation in Eastern Europe.

After all, this also concerns China's interests. As the world's factory and a world-class power, China has vast interests overseas. China has trading partners all over the world, and Chinese people are doing business everywhere.

Trade between China and Ukraine is very close. China is Ukraine's largest trading partner. Since the 1990s, China has continuously imported some Soviet-style weapons and equipment from Ukraine, including tanks, armored vehicles, missiles, aircraft, warships, etc. A large amount of data has been transported from Ukraine to China. In addition to cooperation in the military industry, the trade volume between the two sides in the civilian field is also constantly reaching new highs.

Ukraine boasts abundant agricultural resources, with 41.5 million hectares of agricultural land, accounting for 70% of its total area. The soil is fertile, with nearly 25 million hectares of black soil, representing 27% of the world's total. Ample water resources and convenient irrigation make it ideal for agricultural production. Ukraine's main crops include grains, oil crops, sugar crops, and potatoes. The average yield of Ukrainian crops is 1.5 to 2 times its domestic demand, allowing for exports in addition to self-sufficiency. Ukraine is the world's largest exporter of sunflower oil and sunflower meal, the third-largest exporter of grains, rapeseed, and walnuts, the fourth-largest exporter of barley and corn, and the sixth-largest exporter of soybeans.

And China is one of Ukraine's most important agricultural product export destinations!

In addition, Ukraine is a popular destination for Chinese students studying abroad, with over 10,000 Chinese students studying in Ukraine.

"Therefore, the geopolitical game in the Ukrainian region will gradually intensify, and even war may break out. When Russia is forced to a certain extent, it will inevitably choose military means," Liu Tao said. "It can be said that it would not be surprising if war broke out here at any time."

Some people optimistically believe that the conflict here is controllable and will eventually be resolved through political negotiation rather than war.

Clearly, this view is far too optimistic.

The situation in Ukraine is very complex, involving not only the current geopolitical games of various parties but also historical legacies.

The Soviet era has ended, but the problems it left behind continue to profoundly affect the present and, foreseeably, will continue to affect the next ten, twenty, or even more years.

Russia is adept at using military means to solve problems. For example, in Libya, Russia chose to intervene and play a game with the United States to stabilize Libya, prevent Gaddafi from being overthrown, and prevent Libya from being taken into the hands of the United States. Otherwise, Russia would lose its most important strategic foothold in North Africa and its most important strategic foothold in the Mediterranean.

An important reason for Russia's significant influence in Europe is that Russia has a Mediterranean fleet in Libya, which is the foundation for Russia to play an important role in Europe.

Furthermore, Russia's two major energy markets are Europe and the East. A significant portion of the natural gas to Europe passes through Ukraine, and Russia cannot accept being constantly held hostage in its energy exports to Europe.

Energy is Russia's most important export commodity and its most important source of foreign exchange and fiscal revenue.

Some people jokingly call Russia a large Saudi Arabia with nuclear weapons, which is not entirely without reason.

Relying on energy exports, Russia can maintain a relatively good life. Coupled with the export of agricultural products, minerals, and other raw materials, Russia can rely on its vast territory, abundant resources, millions of troops, and a large nuclear arsenal to remain one of the world's most important players.

If Russia wants to restore its status as one of the world's superpowers like the Soviet Union, then it must take Ukraine. Only by taking Ukraine can it take a further step. Losing Ukraine means that Russia will never be able to restore the strength of the Soviet era.

Which is more important to China, Russia or Ukraine? The answer is undoubtedly Russia.

In international relations, the most important thing is the relationship between major powers!

The importance of the relationship between China and Russia is second only to the relationship between China and the United States.

China and Russia have a long border, which is still the case because Outer Mongolia serves as a buffer zone; otherwise, the border would be even longer. If the two sides are friendly, then naturally everyone benefits. If the two sides are at odds, then it is necessary to maintain millions of troops on the northern border to cope with a possible war, which is the same for both sides.

Moreover, Russia is one of China's most important energy import sources. China imports a large amount of oil and natural gas from Russia every year, accounting for at least 25% of China's total oil and natural gas imports. Pipeline transportation, coupled with long-term cooperation agreements, keeps the prices of oil and natural gas relatively low.

Furthermore, China is Russia's largest importer of timber, iron ore, copper ore, and so on.

Russia is also an important commodity export destination for China, with a very large volume of exports every year, ranging from small items like clothes, pants, socks, and shoes to large items like airplanes, cars, and appliances.

The total trade volume between China and Russia is much larger than the total trade volume between China and Ukraine, and the difference between the two is significant.

Moreover, whether China wants to achieve regional economic integration in Central Asia or Northeast Asia, it cannot bypass Russia.

Once a war breaks out in Ukraine, how should China choose?

This is a question worth studying and discussing!

At the meeting, Liu Tao raised this question because he did not want China to be caught off guard when that day really came.

In Liu Tao's view, a war in Ukraine is almost inevitable; it is only a matter of which year and which day.

Unless the United States and others compromise, withdraw from Ukraine, and default to Ukraine being within Russia's sphere of influence.

For China, Southeast Asia, South Asia, Central Asia, the Northwest, and the Northeast are stable, and the probability of war breaking out is already very low. The friction between Lanfang and Australia is too marginal. The only place where war is still likely to break out in the surrounding area is Northeast Asia.

However, this possibility is actually not very high.

China has spent a great deal of effort in promoting economic integration in Northeast Asia, easing relations between all parties, and enabling all parties to communicate and negotiate amicably.

Then, what can affect China's interests must be in more distant places.

The voice calling for the protection of China's overseas interests is growing louder and more urgent.

Ukraine is a very important fulcrum.

Once something happens here, the chain reaction will be extremely alarming.

It is not entirely impossible for a third world war to break out here as a result.

As one of the world's most important players today, China cannot completely stay out of it, and how to respond to maintain China's interests is particularly important.

Now, China's power projection in Africa and the Middle East is relatively strong. However, in Ukraine, this power projection is very limited.

(End of this chapter)