Chapter 2147: Ship at high prices and buy at low prices

Konami's strategic transformation towards social games really aroused Zhou Buqi's absurd sense of time and space. This is already 2012, and it feels like 2010 again.

However, ridicule is ridicule, Japanese game manufacturers have really strong foundation.

Konami's expected revenue this year is as high as $3.48 billion.

It’s really scary!

Much higher than Changyou!

Changyou has not yet held a board meeting this year, and executives are analyzing data to determine an expected growth target for this year.

If it is set too high, once the target is not met at the end of the year, it will be questioned by shareholders and the market; if it is set too low, it will not be conducive to the growth of the stock price and it will be difficult to mobilize the enthusiasm of employees.

Currently, three plans are proposed internally.

Option 1: Revenue increases by 20%, from US$2.2 billion to US$2.65 billion; net profit increases by 35%, from US$740 million to US$1 billion.

Option 2: Revenue increases by 35%, from US$2.2 billion to US$3 billion; net profit increases by 50%, from US$740 million to US$1.1 billion;

Option 3: Revenue increases by 50%, from US$2.2 billion to US$3.3 billion; net profit increases by 60%, from US$740 million to US$1.2 billion.

Zhou Buqi was confident and felt that he could propose the boldest third plan to the board of directors.

Don Mattrick proposed Option 1, and he was the most conservative.

He believes that the coming year will be Zhou Buqi's first full fiscal year after becoming chairman. Changyou can only succeed and not fail in its financial reports, and must focus on stability.

There must be no accidents!

Once expectations are too high and tasks are not completed by the end of the year, not only the executives will be criticized, but it is he, the chairman, who is most questioned by the market.

There may even be some conspiracy theories.

For example, at the beginning of the year, a 50% growth target was set for this year.

The stock price reflects the future value of the company, which means that according to normal logic, the company's stock price can soar by 50% in a short period of time. Once the performance at the end of the year does not meet the target, the stock price will plummet.

Many small shareholders who buy at high prices will be deceived by "expectations" and lose money.

This is suspected of capital manipulation.

Could it be that Changyou had internal operations, arranged for people to buy Changyou's shares in advance, and then deliberately released an exaggerated expected target to lead the stock price to skyrocket.

After the stock price skyrocketed, they slowly shipped the goods and cashed out at a high price.

When the real financial report is made public, it fails to meet expectations and the stock price plummets... some people will be happy and some will be sad.

Similar operations abound in large A-shares.

Major shareholders can always cash out at high prices when the time is right. Therefore, when playing stocks in large A-shares, there is a law that remains unchanged for thousands of years. You must not buy the stocks of companies whose major shareholders frequently cash out. This thing is riskier than currency speculation.

Another executive director and co-CEO Ren Yuxin is more confident than Mattrick. He proposed Plan 2 and believes that this goal can be achieved.

Chairman Zhou Buqi is the most radical and prefers option 3.

However, even the most radical plan 3 has a revenue target of only US$3.3 billion this year. Konami’s expected revenue is US$3.48 billion.

This shows how powerful this veteran gaming giant is in creating wealth.

The disadvantage is that the profit margin is too low.

There is a lot of wealth created, and there is also too much wealth to squander. The expected net profit is almost US$1 billion less than Changyou. It’s no surprise that Konami and other Japanese gaming giants have a depressed market value.

To solve the problem, you can start from two aspects.

When Zhou Buqi met Masayoshi Son, he expressed his thoughts, "There are two ways to solve the long-term slump in the market value of Konami or Capcom. One is to create more value; the other is to reduce squandered value. ."

Masayoshi Son sighed, "Creating more value is the solution. Many problems and shortcomings of Japanese companies are visible to everyone, and no one can solve them. Unless you have Kazuo Inamori's skills."

Zhou Buqi smiled and said, "I don't have that level. I can only lay off employees."

Kazuo Inamori solved JAL's predicament with one trick: reducing the value of squandering, and using his management philosophy of "respecting heaven and loving people" and "self-sacrifice" to give employees a boost.

The employees were enthusiastic and worked hard.

This can not only increase the value created, but also reduce the value squandered, especially reducing communication costs.

In a large company, there are many departments, and every group and unit is numerous. Every communication between different groups is actually a cost.

For a highly efficient company, communication can be completed in 5 minutes at almost zero cost.

Companies with poor efficiency may have to go through various procedures, report at various levels, prepare conference rooms, and prepare meals after the meeting... and even spend their own department's funds to treat the other party to dinner in order to persuade the other party to cooperate. One-stop massage service.

It took maybe half a month to finally reach a consensus of intention.

Kazuo Inamori's "Amoeba" management model took care of this matter, and JAL came to the rescue.

This thing is impossible to imitate.

Zhou Buqi knew that he was not at that level, so it was most effective to lay off employees as a warning to others.

Whoever makes trouble will be fired; whoever stays idle for a long time will be fired; whoever fails to unite employees and creates difficulties for others will be fired; whoever is selfish and refuses to listen to discipline will be fired; leaders in charge of several departments who cannot solve coordination problems between departments will be fired. .

This method is the simplest, most effective, easiest to manage, and is used all over the world.

Japanese companies basically have lifelong employment systems, and they cannot be fired, which becomes the most difficult problem.

Masayoshi Son said in embarrassment: "If you don't have this ability, it will be almost impossible to buy a game company of the same level as Konami and Capcom."

"Not even Capcom?" Zhou Buqi frowned slightly, "Capcom's market value is only US$800 million, only 4% of Changyou's! Have you seen Capcom's financial report last year?"

The financial reports of major companies have not yet been made public and are still being compiled. The official version will not be released until the end of March at the earliest. However, it is still possible for people with connections to obtain some rough internal financial reports.

Son Zhengyi nodded, "I've seen it, and it's all surrendered."

Zhou Buqi said: "Well, US$750 million, a decrease of 5% year-on-year, zero profit of US$6000 million, a decrease of 14% year-on-year. Two months later, when Capcom officially announced last year's financial report, the stock price was guaranteed to plummet. "

Masayoshi Son sighed and said: "Japan's corporate philosophy is different from that in Europe and the United States. To be precise, Japan is a corporation, not a company. A corporation is a society. A Japanese company is a small society. Any country, It is impossible for a society to expel a citizen from the country just because he is too lazy or incompetent, right?"

"Depend on!"

Zhou Buqi is speechless. Damn, you can really fool me.

Son Zhengyi said: "It is almost impossible to acquire Capcom as a whole, and it is even more impossible for Konami. I am very firm on this point. If this is your strategy, it must be modified."

Ren Yuxin, who was sitting aside, smiled and said: "At this stage, it is in Capcom's best interest to choose to cooperate with Changyou. Because their stock price is quite high, with a market value of US$800 million. By the end of March , the financial report was made public in early April, and Capcom's stock price plummeted. When Capcom cooperates with Changyou, the conditions will not be so good. The sooner they talk to Changyou, the more advantage they can take."

Son Zhengyi said: "Yes, as far as I know, this is also their internal thinking. Otherwise, even if Changyou is the world's most valuable game company, it will be difficult to connect with Capcom, and there may not even be any intention to discuss it. "

Zhou Buqi said in a deep voice: "In the past two or three years, the performance of Japanese game companies has continued to decline. Looking at the current situation, it may continue to decline for several years."

Masayoshi Son waved his hand and sighed: "It's useless for you to tell me. I'm just telling you the results of what I learned here. Konami will not negotiate with you about the acquisition intention, not even talk. Karp Kong will talk to you, but the direction of the talks must not be an overall acquisition."

Small companies can buy it, but big companies are almost impossible to buy it.

Unless this large company goes bankrupt and cannot be saved, only large foreign companies will have the opportunity to take over and clean up the mess. Japan's big companies are really not companies in the ordinary sense.

Fortunately, Changyou had a plan in advance.

If the overall acquisition fails, then strategically buy shares and obtain their game intellectual property rights through cooperation. Ren Yuxin even prepared five or six cooperation plans.

At this time, a guest came to Sun Zhengyi's house, and he wanted to go out to greet him.

Zhou Buqi and Ren Yuxin were both guests, so they were waiting in the reception room, whispering in low voices.

Ren Yuxin said: "It is similar to our previous judgment."

Zhou Buqi nodded and whispered: "Seize the opportunity, now is the trough period of the game industry. Konami is actively transforming into social games, what does this mean? It means that the entire Japanese game industry is seriously behind the times. , out of touch with world trends. Even traditional companies like EA know that social games are not good. According to my judgment, the game industry will improve this year. The game industry is an IT industry and will be affected by the large market of the IT industry. The impact of the situation. After June, global gaming stocks will soar."

Ren Yuxin said with a smile: "Capcom cooperated with Changyou when the stock price was high before the public financial report. On the surface, they took advantage. In fact, the 'high' in their eyes is actually a real low. "

Zhou Buqi nodded and said: "Listening to Son Zhengyi's tone, we have a great chance of investing in Capcom in a big way."

"Well, let's make a strategic investment, and get at least 30% of the shares." The more Ren Yuxin thought about it, the more interesting it became. This is Boss Zhou's usual way of doing business, which relies entirely on cognitive suppression. "They think it's high-priced shipments, but it's actually our low-priced bargain hunting."

Zhou Buqi said: "The Japanese game industry must continue to focus on those classic game IPs. They are very valuable. You can target Capcom first. As long as the cooperation between Changyou and Capcom creates huge value, This will give Changyou the green light to cooperate with more Japanese game manufacturers in the future."