Chapter 1151 Conspiracy vs. Conspiracy

In fact, after hearing the news just now, Chang Haonan’s mood can almost be expressed in one sentence.

Thanks to the American guy for the help!!!

Even if agriculture develops into the 21st century, it cannot completely get rid of the nature of relying on the weather for food.

Therefore, it is normal for international food markets to experience price fluctuations due to the impact of climate and disasters.

But this time, the "natural disaster" only accurately covered the main producing areas of soybeans and corn, and did not even affect wheat. It was really too obedient.

Soybeans and corn happen to be the two crops that China imports in the largest volume and has the highest degree of external dependence.

It is not difficult to guess that this should be the starting move of a combo.

The purpose is to use a sophisticated futures operation to completely control the non-staple agricultural product market that China promised to open when it joined the WTO.

Although it did not completely grasp the lifeline of China, it definitely hit its weak spot.

A rather vicious ploy.

But it must be admitted that it is very effective.

It is a strategy that is carried out step by step and with solid confidence.

Due to the triple debuff of insufficient production + insufficient reserves + open market, even if the Americans revealed every step in advance, China would find it difficult to resist.

But from another perspective, the opponent's actions will also completely expose China's fundamental problem of lack of arable land.

This will undoubtedly cause the swaying balance in the minds of decision-makers to tilt sharply towards Chang Haonan.

When he thought of this, Chang Haonan couldn't suppress the curve of his mouth...

Ding Zhongli next to him also keenly noticed the change in Chang Haonan's expression.

"Academician Chang?"

He called out tentatively.

"Oh, nothing."

Chang Haonan quickly put away his smile, but his tone still revealed his unconcealed joy:

"Let's continue...where were we just now?"

In fact, Ding Zhongli had already had some guesses at that moment.

Of course, he had not read the script in advance, nor was he a financial practitioner, so he could not guess the Americans' subsequent actions in the futures market.

But judging from the trend, it is a foregone conclusion that China will become a net food importer in 2004.

The fact that international agricultural futures prices are stuck in rising at the current point is clearly disadvantageous to China.

In this case, Chang Haonan's first reaction after hearing the news was joy...

Combined with the experimental field in western Meng Province...

This undoubtedly shows that the other party has once again made the right bet on research direction.

Thinking of this, he smacked his lips with some emotion and said to himself:

"No wonder they are making rapid progress..."

However, seeing that Chang Haonan didn't seem to intend to dwell on the matter any further, he changed the subject and used this opportunity to talk about his old profession:

"We were talking about climate change just now... Actually, Mr. Chang, the extreme climate mentioned in the news just now is unlikely to exist at all."

Although Chang Haonan thought so too, he still wanted to hear the opinions of real experts.

So I asked with some curiosity:

"How to say?"

However, the other party did not give any meteorological or geological explanation, but changed the subject directly:

"The Americans are likely trying to use this incident to put pressure on us and force our country to make concessions in the next phase of climate agreement negotiations."

It has to be said that because his own interests were related to arable land, Chang Haonan did not consider the issue from other perspectives.

Now that Ding Zhongli suddenly said this, I felt that it made some sense.

Even if it is not the main purpose, it can be used as a side job.

"But wasn't the Kyoto Protocol already signed?"

Chang Haonan has a rough idea of ​​the disputes among countries on emissions issues, but it is obviously impossible for him to compare with professionals like Ding Zhongli.

"The Kyoto Protocol is essentially a supplement to the Framework Convention on Climate Change. Most of the provisions in it are not mandatory and the content is relatively rough."

The latter explained:

"Especially, when it was signed in 1997, we were classified as a developing country and were not required to make any commitment to reduce emissions..."

"But my country has been developing very fast in recent years, which has made some developed countries feel threatened. So on the one hand, they are stepping up their efforts to exaggerate the serious consequences of climate change, and on the other hand, they are also publicizing internationally that we have entered the ranks of so-called 'quasi-developed countries' and should shoulder the responsibility of emission reduction together with them..."

Even though Chang Haonan had been mentally prepared, he couldn't help but blurt out when he heard this:

"That's bullshit!"

China's development speed in this timeline is indeed faster than in the previous life, but in the past 2003, the per capita GDP was only 1.6 yuan, equivalent to about 2000 US dollars.

In comparison, even South Korea, which is generally considered to be at the lower end of developed countries, has a per capita GDP of nearly $1.5.

Classifying China at this point in time as "quasi-developed" is completely a lie with open eyes and is shameless.

Of course, excitement is excitement.

Chang Haonan would not lose his mind over such a small matter.

After calming down a little, he asked:

"But the Kyoto Protocol is an old document that was signed seven years ago. No matter how much we try to make amends, the content cannot be changed..."

Seeing Chang Haonan's reaction, Ding Zhongli secretly breathed a sigh of relief and nodded:

"In fact, using the content of the Kyoto Protocol as an issue is probably just a means to divert our attention."

"I personally speculate that their real purpose is to exert pressure in the fourth assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to be launched at the end of this year, so as to promote restrictions on my country's... or even restrictions on greenhouse gas emissions of all developing countries in one step in the next climate agreement..."

After saying this, perhaps because he was worried that Chang Haonan didn't realize the seriousness of the matter, he paused for a moment and continued:

"To be honest, my main job is geological research, and I know very well the various catastrophic extreme climates that the Earth has experienced over the past hundreds of millions of years... So, I am not against reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but in the foreseeable future, modern human civilization can only be built on the basis of fossil energy. To put it more bluntly, the right to emit is the right to development, so the premise of reducing emissions must be to ensure fairness."

"As a country with a population of 12 billion, even if we obtain the same total emissions as the United States, it is only one-fourth of their per capita emissions rights, not to mention the stock that developed countries have already recklessly emitted over the past 150 years..."

Ding Zhongli turned around and looked directly at Chang Haonan, who was half a head taller than him:

"Academician Chang...if their conspiracy succeeds, it will be equivalent to locking the ceiling of our development..."

"So, Director Ding wants me to express my support for you on this matter?"

Chang Haonan asked directly.

Ding Zhongli was slightly stunned when his purpose was revealed, but then he regained his composure:

"Yes."

"You and I are both technicians. We cannot play a role in international political occasions like the IPCC by ourselves. Therefore, we must make the decision-makers aware of the seriousness of the situation so that we can show the tough attitude we should have at the critical moment. However, our Institute of Geology and Geophysics still lacks influence. If Academician Chang can join us, perhaps we can change the views of our superiors."

It should be said that Ding Zhongli's entire idea is correct.

This is also why he insisted on including the content "the global warming trend is beneficial to our country to a certain extent" in the assessment report.

Because this gives you the confidence to overturn the table during the negotiation process.

As long as we are not afraid of overturning the table, even if we cannot achieve true fairness in emission rights, we can at least strive for relatively favorable conditions.

However, after thinking deeply, Chang Haonan did not give a positive answer immediately, but asked:

“Why can’t we be more direct?”

"Ok?"

Ding Zhongli obviously did not expect the other party to give such a reply.

"I mean, we must certainly dare to turn the table over, but we can't use it as the only means."

Chang Haonan continued:

"It's like nuclear weapons. They are the strongest trump card, but we can't just use nuclear threats against anything. At most, we can only ensure that the country will not be destroyed... We also need to build conventional military forces to fight against imaginary enemies to ensure that we don't suffer losses in details and small matters."

Although Ding Zhongli is not from a military background, this explanation is easy to understand:

"You mean, take the initiative in the IPCC's Fourth Assessment?"

Chang Haonan nodded:

"To be frank, I don't believe that developed countries, especially the United States, will really reduce carbon emissions as they have promised."

"As you just said, the IPCC's assessment work is absolutely dominated by developed countries... Isn't that the equivalent of them being both athletes and referees, and whoever ranks a certain way gets the same rank?"

He has seen too many similar things.

"Then you are indeed right..."

Hearing this, Ding Zhongli sighed helplessly:

"Although we have room to argue, the most we can do is to refute it with domestic ground monitoring data. As for the situation abroad... they can say whatever they want."

But Chang Haonan became excited instead:

"So, if we can find evidence to expose this during the fourth assessment, wouldn't that be equivalent to providing our superiors with a conventional weapon other than overturning the table?"