Chapter 1152: Give Him a Trick in His Own Way
Chang Haonan's thinking is basically the same as before -
It's good to have support from senior leaders.
But it would obviously be better if you could support your superiors and push them in the direction you want.
In fact, many people understand this truth.
But understanding is one thing, and implementing it is another.
If you really want to do this, it is very difficult.
Not only do you need strong technical skills, you also need to have sufficient insight. Otherwise, after spending a lot of effort and finally finding out that you were working in the wrong direction, all your efforts will be wasted.
On the other hand, the risks are also great.
If something goes wrong, it is likely to backfire and end up losing the trust of your superiors.
Therefore, after hearing Chang Haonan's thoughts, Ding Zhongli frowned slightly:
"Although it's true that this is the right idea, but in terms of operation... I'm afraid it will be difficult to achieve."
He then further explained:
"The most accurate and common method for detecting greenhouse gas content in the atmosphere is definitely on-site or aerial measurement. However, due to various non-technical factors, it is difficult to carry out in many locations, so the spatial coverage is limited and can only be applied to local observations."
"If we really want to conduct continuous, stable, high-precision observations over a large area, or even globally, we can only consider satellite remote sensing... For example, three years ago during the third IPCC assessment, the United States and Japan jointly released data on carbon dioxide emissions from a coal mine in Shanxi Province, my country, accusing the mine of emitting seven times more carbon dioxide per unit of output than the world average."
At this point, Ding Zhongli also showed a bit of indignation:
"Because the other party was conducting space remote sensing measurements, we couldn't use the sovereignty issue to deal with it. Although we later organized an emergency international joint investigation to clarify the matter, we were still put in a very passive position for a while..."
This completely involves Chang Haonan's blind spot in knowledge:
"Is there still this?"
"Too much……"
Ding Zhongli shook his head helplessly
"Unfortunately, our country does not have enough technical accumulation in this area. Besides, space launch resources are very tight. It is impossible to launch a satellite specifically for detecting carbon dioxide concentration..."
As a researcher in geology and geophysics, he is used to hard times.
Although this industry is related to science, the demand for resource investment is actually no less than that of large-scale engineering projects.
If one really wants to conduct research at a high enough level, then one would need to have things like supercomputers, remote sensing satellite constellations, ground observation networks, and even strategic reconnaissance aircraft...all of them would have to be available.
Given China's conditions in the early 21st century, it was indeed impossible to be so extravagant in a field that neither produced direct benefits nor involved national defense security.
In fact, considering that it is already August 2004 and the IPCC's fourth assessment plan is completed in 8, even if the money is in place, China will most likely not have enough time to launch a satellite.
Therefore, Chang Haonan initially considered another path.
Use foreign data to slap themselves in the face.
"We certainly can't launch satellites ourselves."
After thinking for a moment, he waved his hand and replied:
"Let's not talk about the time and money issues first... Even if we do succeed, others can still say that our data is fake... We won't be in a passive position by then, but we will just be back to talking to each other, which doesn't make much sense..."
"But logically speaking, greenhouse gas research should be shared by the whole world, and the remote sensing results of foreign atmospheric carbon dioxide satellites should be open to the outside world, right?"
Faced with this seemingly unsophisticated question, Ding Zhongli was a little confused for a moment, and couldn't understand why Chang Haonan, who was very sharp just now, suddenly got confused.
But he still replied:
"It is public, indeed... but foreigners are not stupid. If they really wanted to falsify some key points, they would definitely adjust the infrared spectrum in advance to make the measured data and the calculated results match."
"As for the original data from the satellite... it's even more impossible for us to get access to it."
After hearing this, Chang Haonan immediately asked:
"What if... we consider more than just carbon dioxide?"
Ding Zhongli has been engaged in climate research for more than ten years and immediately understood what he meant:
"You mean methane... or nitrogen oxides?"
The so-called greenhouse gases are actually a large category, among which carbon dioxide is the most typical and famous.
But in fact, many other types of gases are also included.
If we only talk about the intensity of the greenhouse effect, carbon dioxide is not even the strongest among them.
It’s just that its absolute concentration is the highest, and it is a component that must be present in the normal atmosphere, so it is often singled out and criticized.
“It’s methane.”
Chang Haonan nodded:
"Although the amount of methane in the air is much less than that of carbon dioxide, it should be considered that the former is more than 30 times more potent in causing the greenhouse effect than the latter. Especially for those lay media and the public who like to do good things, it is not possible to expect them to understand the difference between the global warming potential and the global warming impact. This is a gimmick that can be used very well."
Although he did not understand meteorology and geophysics, he happened to have studied several typical greenhouse gases from a chemical level for the AE1500 that was currently under development.
The main sources of methane are actually the rumination of artiodactyl mammals, as well as oil extraction and crop cultivation.
Except for the third point, none of these are China's strong points.
Ding Zhongli thought for a while:
"But there is currently no mature technical means to determine the methane content through space remote sensing..."
"What I mean is that although infrared hyperspectral satellites can provide data including methane, water vapor, and VOCs while detecting carbon dioxide content, in general, in order to accurately obtain the concentration of CH4, shortwave infrared, thermal infrared, and active lidar are still needed... It is probably difficult to obtain accurate data by relying only on single spectral data, especially second-hand information provided by others."
However, Chang Haonan showed a somewhat strange expression at this time:
“Why do we need accurate data?”
"???"
Ding Zhongli's face was filled with the expression "Are you kidding me?"
"Carbon dioxide and methane share a common absorption feature at 1.6 micrometers in the infrared spectrum."
Chang Haonan's next sentence was a bit nonsensical.
But he soon continued:
"That is to say, we can select the carbon dioxide concentration at the measurement point as a reference, and use the forward radiation transfer model and the iterative update algorithm of the inversion process to invert the concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the common absorption band."
"Technically speaking, if they deliberately lowered the concentration of carbon dioxide in the data and did not correct other parameters related to methane because they were caught off guard, the inverted methane concentration would be abnormally high... and considering that the actual concentration of carbon dioxide in the air is generally dozens or hundreds of times that of methane, the degree of abnormality would be very, very exaggerated."
"In other words, they either have to admit that they falsified their public data, or they have to admit that they have secretly emitted enough methane gas to destroy the earth..."
