Chapter 339 [Future refers to, whoever regards it as a lamb will be a lamb to be slaughtered]

After the market closed in the afternoon, Fang Hong was sitting in the sofa area of ​​the main living room on the first floor of the villa, and was watching the special program on the first day of listing of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index futures being broadcast on the financial news channel.

The program team invited two so-called stock commentators to interpret and comment. Fang Hong was also watching this program when he was free.

In the studio, the host faced the camera and said: […Welcome back, the long-awaited stock index futures finally meet investors today, and the first trading day has closed. Be interpreted by everyone. ]

Sitting next to Fang Hong, Miss Hu Tao peeled a piece of apple and delivered it to his mouth. She was very comfortable with nothing to do.

The voice of the stock commentator came from the TV: [Judging from the performance of the market today, the four stock index futures contracts all opened higher, of which the main contract IF1005 opened higher at 3450 points, an increase of more than 2%; 1012 contracts opened higher The range even reached more than 7%, and the market opened at 3618.8 points, which shows that investors are still accustomed to speculation. ]

Guest: [However, the four contracts all showed a trend of opening high and moving low. The contracts all hit the highest point in the morning 5 minutes before the opening, and then fell all the way until 10:30 before they stopped falling and stabilized, and began to build a platform for consolidation. At 13:30 in the afternoon, the futures index began to rise, but the good times did not last long. At 14:10, it began to show a downward trend. It fell sharply in late trading, but both closed above the listed benchmark price. ]

Host: [Well, yes, let’s take a look at the closing data. The 1005 contract rose +0.49%, the 1006 contract rose +1.25%, the 1009 contract rose +3.32%, and the 1012 contract rose +4.65%. However, we also noticed that the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 1.13 percentage points today. What do the two guests think about this? ]

Guest: [Judging from the intraday futures and spot trends, the intraday correlation between the futures contract and the spot index is not high. Although the futures index is higher than the current index, it is obviously lower than the price limit of the day. On the first day of listing, the operation was still very smooth. ]

Fang Hong couldn't help laughing when he heard the words of the guest commentator, and next Monday, he suddenly collapsed and slapped him in the face, not knowing how he should behave.

Moderator: [The turnover of more than 60 billion yuan in the first trading day of stock index futures shows that investors are very enthusiastic about participating. However, although the four contracts closed up across the board, they showed a trend of opening higher and lower. ]

Guest: [As a result, today's futures and spot prices diverge, the mid-day price difference may be as high as close to 90 points, and the lowest is more than 50 points. There are a large number of futures and spot arbitrage opportunities in the market, and there are opportunities to sell short on rallies. The trend of opening high and going low makes More investors got their first taste of making money on short sales. ]

Guest: [We have just roughly calculated an account. If we calculate according to the highest point and the lowest point, the contract in May can earn up to 15%, and the contract in June can earn up to 14.8%. The wrong one can lose up to 18.3%; the September contract can earn up to 22.26%, and the wrong one can lose up to 22.26%; the December contract can earn up to 18.3%, and the wrong one can lose up to 18.3%. ]

Moderator: [These data fully illustrate the leverage of the stock index futures market. ]

Guest: [Yes, yes, yes, because it is generally impossible for the spot market to make a profit or lose more than 10% a day, which means that the stock index futures market has high returns and high risks. Different from the stock market, stock index futures is a zero-sum game, in which both the long and the short will definitely lose if they gain. ]

Guest: [Today, the short sellers basically made all the profits, and the long sellers basically lost all of them. Today, billions of funds were transferred from the long side to the short side, so the long investors can only watch helplessly. funds were withdrawn. ]

Host: [What do the two guests think of the trading volume on the first day? ]

Guest: [In terms of trading volume, on the first day of listing, the transaction of futures contracts exceeded market expectations. From the perspective of transactions and positions, the 1005 contract is a veritable main contract, with both trading volume and open interest at about 80%. The main contract IF1005 48,988 lots were traded, far exceeding the market expectation of 10,000 lots. ]

Guest: [According to the data disclosed by Changcheng Weiye Futures, the turnover of the four contracts is calculated as 60,000 lots, and at the same time, based on the 7,000 customers participating in the transaction, the average turnover per account is 8.6 lots, and the average turnover of 100 yuan per lot In terms of handling fees, the futures index brought about 12 million yuan in revenue to the industry on the first day of listing. The problem of insufficient liquidity that the market was worried about before did not appear, but most of the investors entering the market were mainly tentative transactions. ]

Fang Hong watched the TV show without saying a word. The newly opened venue collected 12 million rakes on the first day. Based on this base, the annual income is 3 billion yuan. In fact, there will be more and more transactions. , This money is earned steadily.

The program is still going on, the host: [According to our reporter from Hongye Futures, about half of the company's customers participated in the first day of stock index futures trading. An analyst at Hongye Futures said that stock index futures are a new thing, and most investors regard the first order as an experience. One of the customers placed an order in a hedging manner, and each made a long and short hand, and tentative operations in both directions at the same time , intended to complete risk aversion. ]

Moderator: [In addition, the news from Changcheng Weiye Futures Sales Department shows that the amount of funds used by trading customers today exceeds 50% of the margin ratio, and there is no so-called liquidation situation. ]

Guest: [As the first batch of investors to participate in stock index futures, it is the first time to participate in real trading operations, a small test of skills, profit and loss is not important, the important thing is experience (laughs)]

Moderator: [What do the two guests think are the characteristics of the first-day trading of stock index futures? ]

Guest: [According to the performance of the first day of trading, I think there are the following four characteristics. First, there is a long-term complex. Many investors have been engaged in securities investment. During the long-term investment process, they have developed a long-term complex, which makes today’s valuation It rose sharply at the opening, and the far-month contract IF1012 once rose by +7.91%, and other contracts also generally showed relatively large increases, which made the old futures customers obtain greater profits through short selling. ]

Guest: [The second is the emergence of arbitrage opportunities. Affected by the country's positive policy on real estate, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 spot index, driven by bank stocks, has a large range, closing at 3356.3 points, down 38.24 points throughout the day. Affected by the long-term complex, the near-month stock index futures contract IF1005 closed at 3415.6 points, up 16.6 points, and there was a 59.3-point premium between the futures and the spot. A larger basis creates arbitrage opportunities in the market. ]

Guest: [The third is that there are more short-term speculators. Although stock index futures trading is active, most investors choose intraday trading. The maximum open interest of the IF1005 contract was only 3,300 lots, and the final overnight holding contract was only 2,702 lots. Most investors were unwilling to take the overnight risk on weekends and chose intraday trading. Finished. ]

Guest: [The last feature is that most institutions have not moved. Investors on the first day of index futures listing are obviously retail investors. The intraday transactions are basically less than 10 lots, and only 6 orders exceed 100 lots. Most institutions are obviously waiting and watching. Today’s market situation should be a test of the waters. In the market, except for the 6 largest 100-hand transactions, no large funds entered. ]

Fang Hong watched it for a while and then closed the special program. After that, the two special guests also analyzed the 6 large orders generated by today's stock index futures, and there was nothing interesting.

The capital market is hotly discussing the issue of stock index futures. Many experts in the fields of public offerings, private placements, and futures predict that once the stock index futures are launched, institutions will be stimulated to "catch up" blue-chip stocks, leading to a wave of rise Market, worried about the short-selling attributes of stock index futures, they said that this kind of worry is a bit excessive.

The reasons can be roughly summarized as follows: 1. 3100 points in the market is not too high, the valuation of weighted sectors is low, and the market has no short-selling motivation; Speculation; 3. The current scale of stock index futures is still too small, and hot money such as private equity funds can play a limited role in guiding the spot market.

The emotions of anticipation and longing placed on the table seem to give the impression that stock index futures are just a docile lamb.

But in fact, whoever regards it as a lamb is a lamb waiting to be slaughtered.

Fang Hong looked at the eager anticipation on the news, and he could only watch the rhetoric of "making the stock market a tool for hedging and hedging" in silence, and then waited for the next trading day to open again. To add empty orders.

He knew that after the launch of stock index futures, the big A was put on the ground as soon as it came up, and the big A suddenly fell like a madman, and the long Yin broke its position, without any decent rebound. This is the A-share market entering the era of hedging A portrait of the first month of .

Since then, A-shares have fallen for more than two months. The stock market index jumped from 3130.30 points, and the lowest fell to just over 2300 points in early July. The total market value has also evaporated by more than 8 trillion yuan.

After the sharp drop in the first half of the year, it once again rose above 3100 points in the second half of the year, staged a roller coaster market with a sharp drop and skyrocketing rise, but since then, it has started a long and slow decline.

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