Chapter 340 [Is it possible for stock index futures to be attacked? 】

Just entered the weekend weekend, on Saturday morning, a big news came out on the news.

The high-level regulation of real estate refers to real estate speculation and speculative purchases. A series of measures have been introduced. For example, if the housing price is too high and the price rises too fast, three or more mortgages can be suspended. Non-local residents with payment certificates are suspended from granting loans, etc.

This is good news for ordinary people who have a rigid need to buy a house.

However, it is bad news for investors who hold real estate stocks and bank stocks. Real estate is one of the weighted sectors of the big A, and banking stocks are the largest weighted sector. These two sectors were affected by bad news on weekends and weekends. Under pressure, if you can't bear it, the market index will definitely be dragged down.

Since the implementation of the "4 trillion stimulus plan" two years ago, the real estate market has started another round of soaring momentum. In recent years, high-level officials have introduced a series of positive policies to curb the rise in housing prices, including measures such as the fact that real estate companies cannot be listed on A-shares for financing. .

However, judging from the actual situation, the actual performance of the real estate market seems to have gradually fallen into a vicious circle where the price rises and becomes more restricted, and the more restricted the more it rises.

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Monday, April 19.

After the weekend weekend, the A-share market opened with a sharp gap and a low opening today. The Shanghai Stock Exchange Index directly broke through the 3100-point mark and opened -1.07% lower at 3096.78 points. After the opening, it opened low and moved low.

Real estate and banking stocks fell across the board, and the two major A-share core weighting sectors showed a unilateral decline, which also drove the market down all the way, with little sign of a decent rebound.

In terms of stock index futures, the opening price of the main contract today also gapped and opened lower, opening -0.57% lower at 3396 points. After the opening, it also opened lower and fell.

At the same time, Fang Hong also instructed the girls in the trading room to continue to open short orders on stock index futures. They have accumulated enough trading experience. Fang Hong also explained to them how to trade stock index futures on weekends and weekends, including some Awareness of terminology.

For example, what do the terms long open, short open, long flat, short flat, long exchange, short exchange, double open, and double equal in futures mean? These are the basic knowledge of futures trading, and they will soon master it Carry out futures trading.

For the strategy of stock index futures, Fang Hong has always had one operation strategy, short selling and continuous short selling.

As soon as the market opened, I first placed three large orders with hundreds of lots to suppress the surprise, and the total open interest quickly increased to more than 1,000 lots. One lot of stock index futures is in the millions according to the current market price.

Now it has more than 1 billion short positions. In the current situation where the futures index is not large, this short position is the largest short position in the market.

After a while, Evelee, who was performing the short-selling operation in the trading room, suddenly stopped, turned to look at Fang Hong and asked, "Brother Hong, will we be attacked if we are unilaterally short-selling? Wouldn't it be very dangerous to be squeezed short by the opponent? After all, the decline is limited, but the rise is unlimited..."

As the first girl to assist Fang Hong in trading, Evelee is no longer a rookie who doesn't understand anything. In fact, the other girls present are also not rookies anymore. After all, the people who brought them are countless stockholders The worship idol K God.

No matter how good they are, when they trade with Fang Hong, the knowledge level of knowledge and passive acceptance is far beyond that of ordinary retail investors. It is equivalent to standing on the shoulders of giants, and the scenes they see are not overwhelming. retail investors can see.

Evele's worries are not unreasonable. As long as the opponent's financial strength is enough to crush the opponent, theoretically, it is possible to ignore the fundamentals and use pure financial strength to force the price to the sky. The continuous short squeeze forces the short Fang was forced to liquidate.

For example, in the "demon nickel incident" more than ten years later, the price of LME nickel rose to US$55,000/ton for the first time, and finally closed at US$50,300/ton, with a daily increase of +73.97%. Even more extreme, in just three hours after the opening of the market, the price quickly doubled, and the increase reached an exaggerated rate of +274.4%.

This cannot be explained by rational market forces at all. The so-called futures are more conducive to the market's discovery of prices, and it sounds even more ridiculous.

In fact, the opponent knows the hole cards of the short side and knows that the opponent does not have the ability to deliver, so he dares to force the short, aiming to force the opponent to admit losses and cut the meat out, so as to complete a harvest feast in the virtual trading market.

On a certain level, Fang Hong’s current short position has a similar problem, that is, all smart funds in the current market know that there is one and only one big short position in the current stock index futures.

Although I don't know the specific identity or organization of the short side, unless we can get inside information from the exchange, but there are only a few people with this kind of energy.

However, the internal information of the exchange cannot be obtained. Only from the market information, it can still be judged that there is indeed a big short or multiple short parties taking concerted actions.

After sister Evelei raised the concern that someone might be sniped, Fang Hong said with a smile: "Don't be afraid, just sell short as I said, the stock index futures in our mainland market have a price limit, and the maximum price increase is also limited. It’s only 10 percentage points, and the maximum intraday swing is only 20 percentage points, no one will be so stupid as to break away from the fundamentals to squeeze the short, and it’s over.”

Since the Shanghai and Shenzhen futures index has a price limit, it is impossible to be short-squeezed or liquidated within a day. A situation similar to the "demon nickel incident" cannot happen to the A-share futures index, unless the opponent's market continues to squeeze the short limit. .

But that has a fatal problem, it takes time.

There is a price limit limit, and it takes 8 trading days to double the price of a short squeeze, 12 trading days to double it, and 15 trading days to triple it.

However, the spot index in the same period will unilaterally drop. Such a futures index and the current index will seriously deviate from each other, and changes will happen later. Enough time for the opponent to react.

Moreover, as the spot index plummets, the sentiment of the short side will become the one with the absolute advantage. At this time, the game side of the short squeeze is undoubtedly fighting against the trend force of the entire market, and there is only a dead end.

Fang Hong's unilateral bearishness is just following the trend, and he didn't talk about going against the trend to fight the market.

Therefore, it is impossible for anyone who is not a fool to snipe him in the Shanghai and Shenzhen futures index. On the contrary, there is a limit on the rise and fall, but it protects the party who wants to gather Fang Hong.

If there is no price limit and the sniper Fang Hong launches a short squeeze, then the ability to fight money, the opponent dares to chase Fang Hong above double the position, and even dare to be ten times above ten times Go in after chasing positions.

Not enough security deposit? Cash out all the medium and long-term stock assets to supplement the margin.

not enough? Then transfer funds from the company Qunxing Capital, and go through a procedure to borrow them. Fang Hong can't mobilize many things now, but even if he has a lot of money, he can even mobilize the liquidity of hundreds of billions of real money. pressure.

Who is the hunter and who is the prey?

However, it is impossible in the actual situation. Even if there is no price limit for North American stock index futures, it is impossible for the futures to double or even several times within a day. The "demon nickel incident" is just a single futures variety. That corresponds to the index, which is the expectation of the entire market. The market index will double or even several times within a month? Obviously impossible.

Therefore, Fang Hong is not worried about being attacked by others at all. It is impossible for a person with such financial strength to be so stupid. If there is one, he is definitely a super charitable person who gives money to people in the whole market.

Just go in and you're done!

However, at this moment, the girls are continuing to add short futures orders. Fang Hong also switched to the stock market to look at the stock market. He took a look at the stock market. Within 15 minutes of the opening, the stock index had fallen by more than 2 percentage points.

Real estate and banking stocks suffered setbacks across the board. More than 1,600 stocks in the two cities, more than 1,500 fell, and none of the stocks rose by the daily limit.

However, at around 10:20, the first stock with a daily limit appeared in the two cities, and it was Desai Battery. The stock price rushed to 17.84 yuan, an increase of +9.99% to close the daily limit.

After the opening of the market last Friday, Tian Jiayi has made 13% of the ticket for entering the market. The market value of the position exceeds 10 million, and he has successfully unlocked the achievement of a million-dollar rich woman.

Fang Hong has started to deal with the medium and long-term targets of institutional accounts one after another, such as Oriental Yuhong, which has been cashed out, but Desai Battery still holds it. The price of this ticket is less than 18 yuan today, and it is expected to see a price of 36 yuan within this year. On top of that, based on today's daily limit price, there are still more than double expectations.

Naturally, the pattern is the main factor, and the T operation at the weekly level is used to control the profit retracement.

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