Chapter 370 1 Blockbuster

In the 1980s and 1990s, the Maxim restaurant on Chongwenmen West Street should be regarded as one of the fashion trends in Beijing. At that time, the Maxim restaurant gathered the most fashionable people in the capital, including Chinese and foreigners.

The Maxim restaurant before 1998 still belonged to Pierre Cardin, the one who sold clothes.

In the mid-1980s, Pierre Cardin spent millions of dollars to buy the 14-year operating rights to Maxim's restaurant, which seemed crazy at the time. After all, with the spending power of China at that time, I don’t know how long it will take to earn back the investment of millions of dollars.

However, this kind of crazy behavior finally brought rich rewards to Pierre Cardin, that is, Pierre Cardin's brand has become China's top luxury brand.

Today's post-00s may have no feelings for this brand, and even think it is a very low brand. However, in the 1990s, the status of the Pierre Cardin brand in China was equivalent to the current Hermes.

Li Weidong took He An'an to Maxim's restaurant and ordered the signature Bordeaux foie gras and Burgundy baked snails.

Not long after, when the dishes came up, He Anan exclaimed happily, Fight the local tyrants!, and then started to move the knife and fork.

With the consumption level of Maxim's restaurant, ordinary people's wages must be unaffordable. Foie gras and snails are all imported by air from France. They are absolute luxury goods in China. Of course, only local tyrants can afford them.

After a meal of seven, seven, eight, eight, He Anan said: On the second Sunday of next month, do you have time?

What? Li Weidong asked.

My grandfather's birthday, I want to take you there by the way and let grandpa meet you. He Anan said shyly.

Your grandfather's birthday, then your parents must be there! Li Weidong asked subconsciously, You are going to take me to see the parents!

He Anan lowered his head more shyly, and said in a smaller and smaller voice: In addition to my parents, my uncle and my aunt will also come.

That's fine, I'll definitely go there then. Li Weidong paused, then asked, What do you think I have to give him for his old man's birthday?

Whatever, as long as you want, he doesn't lack anything anyway, He Anan said.

Why don't you give me a golden birthday peach! I think people on Hong Kong Island have a birthday, and this is popular! It has a good meaning, and it is also precious. Li Weidong asked with a smile.

How vulgar! He Anan curled his lips and continued: Grandpa lives in a nursing home now, and it is useless to ask for valuables, but it is an eyesore.

Although He An'an doesn't mention his family background very much, Li Weidong can also guess. Li Weidong also knows that those who can directly live in the capital and enter a sanatorium after retirement are not ordinary cadres.

They will certainly not be deficient in material things.

If you just send some valuables such as gold and silver jewelry, people may not be able to see it, but Li Weidong seems to be tasteless, like a local rich man.

Why don't I go shopping for some antiques, calligraphy and painting, and give them to the old man? Li Weidong asked subconsciously.

My grandfather doesn't care about that thing! And he doesn't understand either. You give him antique calligraphy and painting, and he must donate it to the cultural relics department in the end! Don't waste that money. He Anan said.

Many old revolutionaries were born in the military, like Li Yunlong, who is really good at fighting, and antiques, calligraphy and painting are surrounded by elegant things, but they don't know anything about it. Giving them antiques is a waste of money.

Then what should I give? Li Weidong thought for a while, and suddenly had an idea in his mind.

...

On the day of the symposium, a special person took Li Weidong to the meeting site.

This is a very ordinary reception room with a circle of sofas, and snacks and seasonal fresh fruits are placed on small tables between the sofas.

When Li Weidong came to the reception room, he found that there were two scholars who looked like they were sitting there, looking at the documents in their hands.

Li Weidong didn't know them either, so he smiled and nodded at the two of them as a greeting, but the two ignored Li Weidong, just stared blankly at Li Weidong and continued to look at the documents in their hands.

The two probably thought that Li Weidong, a young man in his twenties, was a staff member here, and he didn't need to pay attention at all.

Li Weidong also intends to learn condoms with these people and ask what should be paid attention to when participating in this kind of symposium, but seeing this scene, Li Weidong no longer puts his hot face on his cold butt, and simply finds a corner seat and sits down .

After a while, professors and scholars who participated in the symposium came to the scene one after another.

Among economists, there are not many scholars who can participate in such think tank-level conferences. Among them, those who have a relatively in-depth research on the Japanese economy can be counted with their fingers. Therefore, these scholars who came to participate in the symposium have mutual understanding. They all knew each other and started greeting each other after entering the door.

Only Li Weidong was a fresh face, and no one knew him, not to mention that Li Weidong was only twenty-five years old, so he was definitely not a well-known scholar at such a young age.

Some people were also curious about Li Weidong's identity. One of the scholars asked the people around him: Lao Zhao, who is the young man sitting over there?

I don't know, he was there when I came. Judging from his age, who should have brought the students to listen together? Lao Du replied.

Another person next to him said, I don't think so. If it was a student, why would it be sitting on the sofa carelessly? I think it might be a staff member here, such as a meeting recorder or something!

Everyone had some guesses about Li Weidong's identity, but they all pretended to be scholars. No one went to Li Weidong to ask, but no one wanted to get it. Li Weidong also came to attend the meeting.

This is what the circle looks like. People in a circle get together. If you are not in this circle, everyone will ignore you.

Li Weidong was left to hang out, and he was quite relaxed. He saw that the cherries in the fruit bowl were pretty good, and thought it would be very sweet, so he simply picked up the cherries and ate them for himself.

After a while, the scholars arrived, but the meeting did not start. After all, the leader had not come yet.

Everyone waited for more than 20 minutes, and a middle-aged man with glasses walked in and said, My teachers, I'm very sorry, the leaders have some things that have not been dealt with, so please wait a little longer. Teachers may wish to eat some fruit plate box snacks first, and I will inform you when the leaders go this way.

As soon as I heard that the leader would not be able to come for a while, the scholars present stopped holding the shelves, and everyone started to sweep the fruit plates and snacks around them.

After waiting for another hour, the middle-aged man with glasses just now came to inform him that the leader had already left.

Special staff cleaned up the peels and other garbage, and some people brought wet towels to everyone. Everyone quickly wiped their hands, sorted out their demeanor, and prepared to welcome the arrival of the leader.

After a while, the old man appeared in the reception room.

Immediately afterwards, the leader shook hands with everyone, and the middle-aged man wearing glasses introduced everyone to the leader.

This is Professor Zhao Yue from Central University of Finance and Economics.

This is Professor Du Zhengliang from the Academy of Social Sciences.

This is Professor Qian Aimin from Capital Technology and Business University!

Finally, the middle-aged man with glasses introduced Li Weidong.

This is Li Weidong, the director of Qinghe Puppy Electric Appliance Factory, the director of Fukang Agricultural Machinery Factory, and the chairman of Loader Factory.

After hearing this introduction, the scholars attending the conference were stunned for a while, and then looked at Li Weidong in astonishment.

Everyone is a scholar who studies economics, but Li Weidong is a businessman.

Huskies are mixed in with the wolves again!

Moreover, the title of Li Weidong is really long. He is both the factory director and the chairman of the board, which sounds quite bluffing.

This guy looks like he's twenty-five or six years old. How could he be the leader of three companies at such a young age? Could he be the second generation?

It shouldn't be. If the second generation is to go to a company with a national prefix, or a monopoly industry, how can it go to an electrical appliance factory, agricultural machinery factory and loader factory!

Isn't our topic today to discuss Japan's economic policy? Why do you find someone who makes electrical appliances and agricultural machinery?

Several scholars discussed in very low voices.

These scholars will definitely have other identities, such as those who stand as the chairman of a certain association, but on such occasions, when introducing their identities, they will always mention the official incumbent unit.

And Li Weidong is more special. He is an entrepreneur. He has three companies, and it is difficult to distinguish between them. Therefore, the glasses man said all three companies.

After the introduction of the participants and the participants, the symposium officially began. These scholars and experts began to express their opinions and elaborate their latest research results. The content is nothing more than what economic policies Japan has adopted in the recent period of time, what is the purpose of introducing new policies, what effects will they have, and so on.

The scholars were talking eloquently one by one, while Li Weidong listened quietly. Anyway, he was not an economist and had no research results.

The Japanese government began to levy a land value tax in 1991, and at the same time increased the assessment tax amount of the fixed asset tax. This tax is levied on the land holding link in order to curb capital's speculation in real estate. At present, the land value tax can only be collected. After more than a year, the results are good.

Since the issuance of the land value tax, the housing price in Japan has been in a relatively stable range, which shows that the land value tax in Japan has indeed successfully suppressed the speculation of capital in real estate, and also helped Japan to establish a stable and healthy real estate market!

It was Professor Du Zhengliang of the Academy of Social Sciences who expressed this view, and his view was also recognized by other scholars.

People who brushed too much from the media would think that Japan punctured the real estate bubble in the 1980s, and Japanese housing prices collapsed in an instant, but this is actually not the case.

At that time, the Japanese economy was developing rapidly, and Japanese decision-makers did not actually think that there was a bubble in real estate, but believed that Japan's real estate was just too prosperous. Therefore, the policy makers adopted a tightening policy, which is actually considered to be an act of regulation.

And the tightening control policy was introduced. Japan's real estate did not collapse immediately, but did not continue to rise, and was in a stable high price state for a long time.

This can be seen from Japan's GDP figures. Japan began to implement austerity policies to regulate real estate in the late 1980s. Since then, Japan's economy has not stagnated, but has risen from a $3 trillion economy to 50,000. billion dollar economy.

If Japan's real estate collapsed during this period, this kind of GDP growth would never have occurred.

To know that Tokyo real estate value can buy half of the United States. If the real estate collapses, it means that the social wealth will shrink, and it will also drag down the GDP, and it is naturally impossible for the GDP to grow rapidly.

If it is a small and medium-sized economy, housing prices may fall and GDP may rise. Because the real estate value of such an economy is not high, coupled with the small size of the economy, the booming development of one or two industries can completely offset the impact of the real estate collapse on the economy.

But it is absolutely impossible for a large mature economy like Japan to have a collapse in housing prices and a boom in GDP at the same time. Because the size of the Japanese economy is too large, and the industries are already mature, there are no new industries of such a large size to make up for the impact of the real estate collapse on the economy.

So the real situation is that after Japan adopted a series of tightening policies, Japan's housing prices did not collapse immediately, but entered a stable state, but this stability is a kind of stability that has no market price.

That is to say, Japan's housing prices were maintained at a high level at that time, but the transaction volume was very small. The middle class held real estate. Although it was very valuable, it could not be sold because the price was too high and there was no room for it to rise, so no one was there. Take over.

So in the early 1990s, those so-called failed real estate speculators in Japan were actually trapped.

Being trapped in real estate is not the same as being trapped in stocks. If you are trapped in stocks, although you will lose money, stocks are still positive assets, and stocks cannot fall to negative numbers. One million shares, at a loss of 200,000, can still sell for 800,000.

However, being stuck with real estate is different, because most people buy a house with a loan, which means that they have to repay the loan. Before the loan is repaid, the house is not yours, but the bank's.

If house prices don't go up, and you have to keep repaying something that doesn't belong to you, then the house will become negative equity.

What's more, in the hot era of Japan's real estate market, many people borrowed usury to speculate on real estate. When house prices stopped rising, these people were also the first to go bankrupt.

Since Japan adopted a tight policy, Japan's housing prices have actually been relatively stable, neither soaring nor plummeting. However, due to the appreciation of the Japanese yen, the housing prices in Japan have fallen in dollar terms.

Originally, real estate in Tokyo could buy half of the United States, but after the appreciation of the yen, it can only buy a quarter of the United States. Therefore, in the eyes of foreign economists, it is equivalent to half of the real estate in Japan.

Therefore, international economists set the burst of Japan's real estate bubble in the late 1980s.

The house price experienced by the Japanese is in Japanese yen. A house originally worth 100 million yen is now worth 100 million yen.

Since the Japanese yen-denominated housing prices have not changed, the Japanese government continued to issue various tight policies, such as land tax, until the mid-1990s.

From another angle, the land value tax is to combat real estate speculation. If real estate really collapses, how can there be any speculation to combat?

When looking back at Japan's policy to deal with the economic bubble, we will find that after the real estate bubble burst in the late 1980s, Japan did not adopt a policy to save the market, but continued to introduce some policies that were not conducive to the development of real estate, which was unreasonable.

It's actually because of the difference between dollar denomination and yen denomination.

In the eyes of many well-known people in China, this was blown into a brave act of scraping the bone to heal the wound, breaking it and standing up.

Anyone with a little IQ knows that the Japanese rulers are not fools. How could it be possible that their home is on fire and fueling the fire? Aren't you afraid of burning yourself to death?

The real collapse of Japanese real estate is actually after 1995, when the appreciation of the yen reached its peak, and then began to depreciate, Japan's housing prices also began to fall, which is actually one of the manifestations of deflation.

Japan originally planned to gradually adjust its austerity policy. However, the Asian financial crisis in 1998 dealt a heavy blow to the Japanese economy. The Japanese government was forced to abolish the land tax, but it did not help.

Since then, Japan's real estate industry has really slumped, and Japan can no longer climb out of the quagmire of deflation and fall into a liquidity trap.

...

Professor Du Zhengliang believes that the result of Japan's levy of land tax is good, it will help combat speculation and build a stable real estate market, which is also the general view of other scholars.

After listening, the leader nodded slightly, but then looked at Li Weidong and said, Chairman Li, what do you think of the land tax in Japan?

In front of the teachers, I'm really embarrassed to play with the axe. My ideas are not very mature. I would like to ask the teachers to give more advice. After all, I am a layman. If I make a mistake, please don't mind the teachers.

Li Weidong paused, then said: I think this land price tax is indeed a short period of time, which can combat speculation and stabilize Japan's real estate market. But this is only a temporary solution, not a permanent solution, as short as three years. , in five years, Japan's real estate will inevitably collapse!

As soon as Li Weidong said this, other scholars in the room showed mocking smiles, and some even sighed softly: A layman is indeed a layman.

The leader opened his mouth to make a round for Li Weidong: As early as three years ago, Chairman Li had predicted that Japan would levy a land tax in 1991, and he was really right. You said today that Japanese real estate will be in the The collapse in the next five years should not be aimless, right?

Li Weidong nodded: Leader, I said that Japan's real estate will collapse, not only because the Japanese real estate industry is unhealthy, but also the entire economy of Japan is unhealthy, and real estate is only one aspect of it.

Why is Japan's economy unhealthy? I feel that Japan's economy has begun to mature after adjustment. This time, Professor Zhao Yue from the University of Finance and Economics spoke.

Just listening to Professor Zhao continued: Beginning in 1990, the Nikkei index of the Japanese stock market fell from 39,000 points to 15,000 points, but the Japanese government also introduced a policy of cutting interest rates, and the effect was remarkable. The stock market has recovered to 19,000 points, and a breakthrough of 20,000 points is just around the corner.

Chairman Li, the stock market in our country has just been established and is far less mature than in developed countries, so you may not know much about stock market indexes. For developed countries, the stock market is a barometer of the economy, and the rising stock market index means that the country's economy is booming!

Li Weidong said: 19,000 points, then the Japanese stock market should have reached the end! I dare say that in the next 20 years, the Nikkei Index will not be as high as this year!

Li Weidong's remarks are still a bit conservative. The Nikkei index exceeded 1993, and it will take 22 years.

On the other hand, Coach Zhao showed a disdainful expression on his face. He obviously felt that Li Weidong was just talking nonsense.

The leader once again gave Li Weidong a round of convincing: Three years ago, when Japan was still raising interest rates continuously, Chairman Li had already predicted that Japan would start lowering interest rates in the second half of 1991, and within four years, it would reduce interest rates. Interest is reduced to zero.

At the time, I also thought it was unlikely, but now two years have passed, and looking at the rate cuts in Japan in the past and the magnitude of Jiangxi, it is not impossible to say that the interest rate will be reduced to zero!

The implication of the leader is to say that Li Weidong's prediction of the Japanese economy is still very accurate.

Blind cat meets dead mouse! Professor Zhao whispered, probably only he could hear the sound.

However, Li Weidong understood Professor Zhao's mouth.

Li Weidong knew that at this time, he could no longer hide his clumsiness. Participating in this kind of think tank-level symposium, and there are leaders who participate in person, may only be this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Li Weidong happened to meet Xiao Yuanzheng. All kinds of coincidences led to this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. He must seize the opportunity and be a blockbuster. At least he must leave a deep impression on the leaders.

So Li Weidong said: Japan's economy is an overall structural problem. As long as this structural problem persists, the Japanese economy will fall into a liquidity trap sooner or later! Therefore, I judge that the Japanese stock market will be more stable in the next 20 years. It's hard to get better.

All the economists present were more proficient in understanding the liquidity trap than Li Weidong.

Professor Qian Aimin from the University of Technology and Business even said: The liquidity trap is just a hypothesis put forward by economist Keynes. It is unknown whether there is a liquidity trap in this world.

Japan was the first country to fall into a liquidity trap, so until then, the liquidity trap was just an unproven theory in economics.

Professor Qian Aimin went on to say: Japan is an economy of more than four trillion US dollars, and its ability to resist various economic risks is second only to the United States. Today's Japan, even if it can't return to the grand occasion of the 1960s and 1970s, But there will never be a liquidity trap, as can be seen from the recovery of the Nikkei.”

Li Weidong said: The Nikkei index is rising, but it is only separated by a layer of window paper. Once there is an opportunity to pierce this layer of window paper, the Nikkei index will repeat the 1990 plunge. For example, Japan There's a party rotation!

Party rotation? This is even more unlikely than Japan falling into a liquidity trap! Professor Zhao Yue showed a mocking expression without reservation.

Yeah, how could the Liberal Democratic Party lose power! Unless the sun comes out from the west! Professor Du Zhengliang also said with a smile.

Since 1955, Japan's Liberal Democratic Party has held Japan's political power firmly, and other political parties cannot shake it.

The Liberal Democratic Party is a merger of the Liberal Party and the Democratic Party, and the Liberal Party has been in power since 1948.

The predecessor of the Liberal Party was Japan's House of Lords. The first Prime Minister of the Liberal Party, Shigeru Yoshida, served as the Prime Minister of Japan as a member of the House of Lords in 1946.

In other words, the ruling history of the Liberal Democratic Party can be traced back to 1946, just after the end of World War II.

Therefore, Japan is the most unqualified country to make irresponsible remarks about a one-party dictatorship, because Japan itself is a one-party dictatorship country. Moreover, the duration of one-party dictatorship in Japan is the longest among all Asian countries.

It is also because the ruling position of the Liberal Democratic Party in Japan is unshakable. When Li Weidong said that the Liberal Democratic Party would lose power and that there would be a party rotation in Japan, everyone showed a sneering expression.

At this time, Li Weidong, in the eyes of everyone, has become an ignorant young man who is grandstanding.

However, at this moment, someone suddenly pushed the door and walked in. The man went straight to the leader, whispered a few words in the leader's ear, and handed a document to the leader.

Everyone in the conference room fell silent in an instant. He knew that such a sudden report must be a matter of national importance, so he did not dare to disturb the leader to read the document.

The leader stared at the document, his expression became solemn, then he raised his head and looked at Li Weidong with a surprised expression.

Li Weidong suddenly felt his scalp numb, he wanted to avoid the leader's eyes, but the city government he had cultivated in his previous life still made Li Weidong pretend to be calm, and then showed a confident smile.

The next second, the leader sighed and said, The embassy in Japan has just sent a message that the Haneda faction within the Liberal Democratic Party has defected and announced that it will secede from the Liberal Democratic Party and establish a new party. The vote is passed, and Miyazawa is about to step down!

Hearing this news, everyone's eyes also focused on Li Weidong.

The impossible thing was told by Li Weidong!

It was a blockbuster!