Chapter 371: Hang up when it's time to hang up!

In predicting this kind of thing, the most important thing is not whether it is outrageous or not, but whether it is accurate.

The content of Li Weidong's prediction sounds very unreliable, but it is obviously very accurate.

The emergence of political party rotation in Japan seemed completely impossible at the time.

However, when the old man said that the Haneda faction had defected and formed a new party, all the scholars present realized that the seemingly impossible party rotation was really about to happen.

The rotation of political parties in Japan this time is, to put it bluntly, a struggle between factions within the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan.

In the 1980s, although there were other factions in the Liberal Democratic Party, the Takeshita faction dominated the family.

After Takeshita No. 1 stepped down as prime minister, the chairman election held by the Takeshita faction was to elect the next leader. At that time, there were two people who were most likely to become Takeshita No. ’s successor. One was Ichiro Ozawa, secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, and the other was the future. Keizo Obuchi, the 84th Prime Minister of Japan.

Ozawa Ichiro is the youngest secretary-general in the history of the Liberal Democratic Party. During his tenure, the Liberal Democratic Party was controlled by him, and he even had the final say on who became the prime minister.

In the end, however, Keizo Obuchi was elected president of the Takeshita faction. Ozawa Ichiro broke away from the Takeshita faction in a rage, and established the Haneda faction together with the future 80th Prime Minister of Japan, Haneda. The Liberal Democratic Party has two major factions, which also paved the way for the rotation of Japanese political parties.

The Haneda faction naturally pushed Haneda as prime minister, but the Takeshita faction still supported the original Prime Minister Miyazawa, so on the eve of the Japanese House of Representatives election in 1993, the Haneda faction cooperated with the opposition party and cast a vote of no confidence in the Miyazawa cabinet , which led to the dismissal of the Miyazawa cabinet.

If this is the case, the Liberal Democratic Party is not enough to lose power. The key is that 44 members of the Haneda faction announced their withdrawal from the Liberal Democratic Party, which directly gave the Liberal Democratic Party a fatal blow and made the Liberal Democratic Party lose its power.

In fact, when the Haneda faction was established, the split of the Liberal Democratic Party had been foreshadowed long ago, but no one could have imagined that Ozawa Ichiro and Haneda were so bold that they left the Liberal Democratic Party and established another hill. Even Japan's own media called the event a coup.

The scholars present are all Japanese experts, and naturally they know what it means for the Haneda faction to defect. Losing the Haneda faction, the Liberal Democratic Party not only lost dozens of seats, but also had dozens of opponents. The gap will be doubled by the opposition party, and the House of Representatives election next month will be defeated.

After realizing this, those disdainful or sarcastic expressions before disappeared instantly, and the professor Du Zhengliang lowered his head even more ashamed. The west side came out, and as a result, the party rotation really came.

Is there really going to be a party rotation in Japan? Professor Qian Aimin muttered in disbelief.

Professor Zhao Yue defended somewhat stubbornly; Even if the Liberal Democratic Party loses the election, the scale of other political parties is too small. Except for the Liberal Democratic Party, no political party in Japan has the ability to form a cabinet, so there is no political party rotation. premature!

Li Weidong immediately responded, Professor Zhao, don't forget that other parties can govern together!

This... Zhao Yue was at a loss for words. He had to admit that Li Weidong was right. With the size of the opposition parties in Japan, it was impossible to form a cabinet alone, but if they united, they would still be inferior to the Liberal Democratic Party. But forming a pavilion is still more than enough.

In reality, after the rotation of political parties in Japan this time, an alliance of eight parties is in power.

The old man looked at Li Weidong with a responsible look. In this room, he had the deepest feeling about Li Weidong's ability to predict.

Li Weidong had successfully predicted before that Japan would cut interest rates and levy land value taxes, and even the timing of interest rate cuts and land value tax collection,

All said.

And today, the rotation of Japanese political parties predicted by Li Weidong has also come true!

After all, this kind of prediction is not a multiple-choice question like making a sieve and guessing the size, but a composition question that gives you a proposition for you to play.

If you say it once, it can be said to be blind, and if you say it twice, it can be said to be lucky, but it has been fulfilled three times, so there must be a theoretical basis.

So the old man asked, Comrade Xiao Li, how did you judge that there would be a split within the Liberal Democratic Party?

The old man's name for Li Weidong changed from Chairman Li to Comrade Li, which is obviously a recognition of Li Weidong.

Li Weidong replied immediately, Leadership, in fact, the split within the Liberal Democratic Party has long been foreshadowed, and this has to start with Ichiro Ozawa...

When there was a party rotation in Japan in the last life, Li Weidong was in Japan. At that time, Japanese TV programs, as well as various newspapers and magazines, also had various interpretations and analyses of this party rotation, including among the various factions within the Liberal Democratic Party. The contradictions among the politicians and the contradictions between the politicians have all been cleaned up by the media and clearly.

Li Weidong briefly introduced the information excavated by the Japanese media at that time, and then added some post-mortem analysis, which instantly gave his predictions sufficient theoretical and factual basis.

The old man nodded again and again, and then he asked, You mentioned just now that if there is a proper rotation in Japan, since a single opposition party is not enough to form a cabinet, there will be a multi-party coalition to form a cabinet, then you think, the most likely Who will be the new Prime Minister of Japan?

The Haneda faction withdrew from the Liberal Democratic Party and established a new party on the hilltop. The purpose is to let Haneda compete for Prime Minister David. Therefore, if a multi-party coalition forms a cabinet, the voice of Haneda as prime minister will be higher.

Li Weidong paused, then continued; But I don't think it is possible for Haneda to serve as prime minister after the July election, because he thought that his new party had just been established, and there was no systematic political opinion within the new party;

Second, Haneda is a traitor of the Liberal Democratic Party. If he is the prime minister, it will be very embarrassing for the Liberal Democratic Party. In order not to stimulate the Liberal Democratic Party, a multi-party coalition will form a cabinet, and Haneda will not be the prime minister.

Moreover, even if a multi-party coalition is formed, each party has its own plans after all. When dealing with the Liberal Democratic Party, the opposition parties may make concerted efforts, but once they are in power, it will be difficult to think about the wealth and wealth of the Communist Party.

Every opposition party wants to gain more benefits and hope that it can dominate the political power. Therefore, some open and secret struggles are inevitable. The next Prime Minister of Japan must be the product of the compromises of various parties, and he will definitely not be a strong figure. .

The leader nodded. Li Weidong said that this kind of situation is not uncommon in Chinese history. When several forces compete for power, if there is a stalemate, it is very likely that a relatively weak person will eventually be elected as the boss.

For example, after the Lu Rebellion in the Han Dynasty, King Liu Xiang of Qi and Marquis of Zhu Xu Liu Zhang all made great achievements, but the ministers finally chose Liu Heng, who had been going for decades, to be the emperor. Without foundation, it is easier to control.

Another example is that after the death of Huang Taiji, Dorgon and Hauge competed for the throne. The final result was that neither of them should be the emperor, and the throne fell to the six-year-old Shunzhi. If Shunzhi was not a baby, the throne would certainly not fall on his head.

Li Weidong went on to say; At present, among the opposition parties in Japan, the political parties that have the ability to win more seats in the Senate election and are relatively weak are only the Japanese New Party, so I think the leader of the new party, Hosokawa Morihi, Most likely to be the new prime minister of Japan.

Professor Qian Aimin next to him asked, Isn't the new party just established in May last year? It has only been one year since its establishment. Can such a new party have a prime minister?

It is because the new party is relatively new that when Hosokawa became prime minister, it was easier for other parties to replace him.

Li Weidong smiled slightly and then said: I said just now that this is just an excessive prime minister, the result of which is to balance the situation, so I can't sit for long! Haneda is eyeing the position of prime minister!

In addition, don't forget that there is the Socialist Party, the second largest party in Japan. The leader, the Liberal Democratic Party, was ousted from power. How could the second child have no idea? The Socialist Party will definitely find ways to compete for the throne of Prime Minister.

Therefore, in the next few years, the political situation in Japan may be relatively chaotic. The formation of a multi-party cabinet also means that the parties are constantly fighting. It is estimated that the political situation in Japan will not stabilize until the Liberal Democratic Party is back in power.

Of course, Li Weidong's judgments were reversed from the perspective of Zhuge Liang in hindsight. However, to others, Li Weidong's series of inferences are well-founded.

The expression of the old man is a little dignified. Different people serve as prime ministers, and their policies in various fields such as economy, politics, and diplomacy are bound to be different. As Japan's neighbor, China will also formulate corresponding policies for Japan according to the Japanese rulers. policy.

If the candidate for the Japanese prime minister can be predicted in advance, the country can formulate targeted policies for Japan, which can not only know ourselves and the enemy, but also seize the opportunity, which is a great benefit.

The old man wrote down the name of Hosokawa Yuxi, and then asked, Comrade Xiao Li, you just said that the problems in Japan's economy are structural problems, can you explain in detail what structural problems are there?

Li Weidong nodded, The structural problems of Japan's economy are multi-faceted, and it is more complicated to talk about in detail, so I will briefly mention a few points. First of all, let's talk about the problems brought about by the Japanese bureaucracy...

Li Weidong started talking about it.

The lost three decades of Japan's economy have always been a subject of intense research by economists.

At first, people blamed the Plaza Accord for the recession of Japan's economy, thinking that if the Plaza Accord was not signed, the Japanese economy would have been prosperous forever.

However, it was not just Japan that signed the Plaza Accord. Germany, France and the United Kingdom also signed the agreement, and also faced the problem of the appreciation of the mark, the franc and the pound. Why did Japan lose 30 years, and Germany, France and the United Kingdom nothing?

In particular, Germany, whose national conditions and industrial structure are very similar to Japan, was not as large as Japan at that time, but it was able to withstand the impact of the Plaza Accord, and even became the leader of Europe more than ten years later.

So economists looked for reasons outside the Plaza Accord, and soon discovered that the real reason for Japan's loss of 30 years was its structural problems. Even without the Plaza Accord, Japan's structural problems would break out sooner or later, dealing a fatal blow to the Japanese economy.

The way to solve structural problems is not to promulgate a few stimulus policies, nor to increase, decrease or modify some laws and regulations, but to rely on structural reforms.

Japan's rulers obviously do not realize this, or are unable to achieve structural reforms. Therefore, in the past 30 years, it has always been hoped to rely on economic policies to stimulate economic recovery. Various means of stimulating inflation have been used, and at most only some short-term effects have been achieved. There is still no change at the overall economic level.

With the Japanese bureaucracy, it is simply impossible to carry out structural reforms. However, structural problems cannot be solved without structural reforms. The current Japanese economy has become an inexorable situation.

For economists in the early 1990s, they did not have a clear understanding of structural problems, and many even attributed structural problems to policy and institutional factors.

On the other hand, Li Weidong began to talk about structural issues and listed the mature views put forward by later economists, which successfully impressed the leaders and other scholars.

After Li Weidong finished speaking, the old man seemed to be still reminiscing about the structural problems Li Weidong said just now. It was not until more than ten seconds later that he came back to his senses and said.

Entrepreneurs look at problems from a different angle than scholars. Comrade Li, you really have unique insights into the Japanese economy, and the structural problems you mentioned in Japan have inspired me!

The leader is wrong, I'm just talking nonsense. Li Weidong said modestly.

The leader shook his head, You're not talking nonsense, especially what you said just now, Japan's structural problems, if you think about it, they are all real, and there are some structural problems, not only in Japan, but also in our country. It may happen, and it is worth our vigilance!

It's okay, we can reform, even if there are structural problems, I believe that with the wisdom of the leaders and the efforts of the Chinese people, we will be able to solve it. Li Weidong said.

Reform! Yes, reform can't be stopped. Not only can it not be stopped, but it must continue to deepen! The old man nodded yes, and then said to Li Weidong, Next month, there will be a lecture here, and the target group is cadres and comrades from various ministries and commissions. , I hope you can come to this lecture.

Although Li Weidong didn't know the nature of the lecture, since it was invited by the leader himself, he definitely couldn't refuse, so Li Weidong said immediately; Leader, I must come to the lecture on time, study and understand the content of the lecture seriously.

The leader laughed, Comrade Xiao Li, you misunderstood. I didn't ask you to come to the lecture, I wanted you to lecture!

Not only Li Weidong, but everyone in the conference room showed surprised expressions.

Those scholars are more knowledgeable than Li Weidong. They know that this kind of lectures for ministers and commission cadres are at least at the academician level, so they are qualified to lecture.

And Li Weidong was only a twenty-five-year-old boy, but he asked him to give lectures, which made everyone stunned.

The leader opened his mouth and said, Comrade Xiao Li, I just said that the structural problems you mentioned in Japan not only exist in Japan, but our country may also encounter them in the future development!

I asked you to talk about these structural problems, and what mistakes Japan has made in the past 40 years of economic development, which led to the emergence of these structural problems.

I hope that our cadres and comrades can learn from the lessons of the Japanese economy through your explanation, and try to avoid making the same mistakes as much as possible! So I hope you don't give up.

For the sake of the leader's words, how could Li Weidong dare to refuse.

So Li Weidong nodded and replied, Leader rest assured, I will prepare this lecture seriously.

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