Chapter 716 What I see is an opportunity

The discussion was still going on, and a staff member quietly walked up to the host and handed a note.

After the host looked at the note, he said: Chairman Li mentioned the possibility of large-scale quantitative easing in the United States. I would like to ask experts, if this possibility arises, it will have a negative impact on my country's economy. What kind of impact?

The host only asked this question after receiving a note. Obviously, this question is not for the host to ask, but for the audience listening. And the only ones who can pass the note to the host are the leaders of the ministries.

Obviously, policymakers want to know what the consequences of quantitative easing in the United States will be.

If this Financial Rescue Act can really restore the US economy, then for all countries in the world, it is nothing more than business as usual, everyone acts according to the previous economic order, and decision-making departments do not need to study and introduce new policies.

But if it is true as Li Weidong said, the United States will carry out large-scale quantitative easing, which will definitely have an impact on the economy of the world, and as a decision-making department, it also needs to introduce measures to deal with it.

Therefore, for the leaders of ministries and commissions participating in the forum, they are more eager to hear about various possibilities. If it's business as usual, then there's no need to listen to these economists.

The topic of quantitative easing appeared temporarily, and several economists obviously did not prepare in advance, but they can become experts, after all, they have a certain level, and they can make a few words on the spot.

Just listening to Professor Huang said: Quantitative easing means that the currency will release water, and the increase of currency in the market will inevitably lead to the depreciation of the currency. That is to say, if the United States implements large-scale quantitative easing, the dollar will inevitably depreciate.

This also means that other currencies will appreciate against the US dollar. If the RMB appreciates against the US dollar, it will inevitably affect our country's exports, and the specific situation depends on the extent of the depreciation of the US dollar.

Hearing that quantitative easing will affect exports, many people at the scene showed nervous expressions.

Professor Sun opened his mouth and said: Let me add Professor Huang, if the dollar depreciates, other countries are likely to follow the example of the United States and carry out quantitative easing in order to stabilize their exchange rates. At that time, there will be a situation where everyone will carry out currency release together, which is bound to happen. It will cause global inflation.

Both professors gave relatively pessimistic answers, and the microphone went to Dean Cai.

Only listening to President Cai said: Let me talk about the impact of quantitative easing in the United States from a monetary perspective! When the dollar depreciates due to quantitative easing, other countries can also hold more quantitative easing by holding more US dollars to stabilize the exchange rate.

If there are more people holding dollars, there will be fewer dollars on the market, and the exchange rate of the dollar will naturally rise. The U.S. dollar is the main trade currency and the most important foreign exchange reserve in the world, so holding more U.S. dollars is not a problem for all countries in the world.

But this is also equivalent to other countries absorbing the excess currency issued by the quantitative easing of the United States, and it is also equivalent to the United States passing on inflation to those countries that hold dollars. And if these countries want to obtain dollars, they must exchange their commodities for exchange, which is equivalent to the Federal Reserve turning on the money printing machine, which can exchange commodities from other countries for Americans to use.

The U.S. dollars held by various countries cannot generate income in the treasury, but will shrink due to the depreciation of the U.S. dollar. Therefore, buying U.S. bonds will become the safest way to preserve the value of U.S. dollar assets. The United States also allows the dollar to return to the United States by selling U.S. bonds.

This also means that the dollar is spared around the world, and then returned to the United States, and the United States also gets the goods provided by the world. And countries in the world are lending money to the United States, allowing Americans to carry out various consumptions. Even goods sold to the US are more like credit than for sale!

in 2008,

The concept of US dollar hegemony harvesting the world's wealth is not well known. This set of theories mentioned by President Cai is still very new to many people.

But freshness is freshness. After listening to this set of theories, everyone in the conference room couldn't help frowning. Before, everyone thought that by selling things to Americans, they were earning their dollars and earning foreign exchange by exporting.

Now listening to Dean Cai's analysis, I dare to say that they have printed a bunch of paper and then exchanged their products. In the end, they have taken back the printed paper. After working hard for a long time, I got a credit! So sad!

The host finally looked at Li Weidong: Chairman Li, you were the first to raise the possibility of quantitative easing, so may I ask what you think about quantitative easing?

Li Weidong picked up the microphone: The views of the three experts just now are all correct, and I agree with them very much. However, I am an enterprise, so I am used to viewing and analyzing problems from the perspective of the entity's industrial structure. Therefore, my views are not like the three experts. Experts are so pessimistic.

In my opinion, if the United States implements quantitative easing, it may not be a bad thing for our country's enterprises. What I see is an opportunity, an opportunity for industrial upgrading!

Here we must first make it clear that if the United States implements quantitative easing, in what form will the excess currency flow into the market. Is it through investment? trading? Financial system? Social Welfare? Or is it just sending money directly to the people?

For example, the rescue of the financial law proposed by the US government this time is to purchase derivatives of sub-prime loans, and who holds these derivatives of sub-prime loans? Obviously financial institutions. That is to say, the money flows directly into the financial institution.

Financial institutions get the money, and its only use is to invest it. But now the United States is experiencing a financial crisis, the financial industry is struggling, and the real economy is shrinking. Is there any other area worth investing in?

In addition to the United States, developed countries such as Europe and Japan have also been affected by the financial crisis. As far as I know, the sovereign debts of some European countries have already experienced problems, which is definitely not a good place for investment.

Other regions, such as Africa, South America, and India, have always been the sphere of influence of Western countries. If Western capital was willing to invest in these places, it would have gone there long ago, and it will not be necessary to wait until now.

So I think there is only one place where Western capital investment can invest, and that is China. If the United States implements quantitative easing, a large amount of capital will inevitably flow into China, and because our financial system has strict restrictions on foreign investment, this capital will inevitably enter our real economy.

This is of course a rare opportunity for us, and what we need to do is to make full use of this opportunity to develop overseas markets, and more importantly, to upgrade the industrial chain, build a complete industrial chain, and transform our manufacturing industry from Low-end to mid-to-high-end transformation!

Compared with what the three economists said before, affecting exports, inflation, and the harvest of US dollar hegemony, what Li Weidong said is obviously positive and positive news. The leaders of ministries and commissions sitting in the front row couldn't help but light up.

However, Li Weidong went on to say: But don't get too happy too soon. In addition to investment, the inflow of Western capital will also bring competition. The West has the advantages of brands and technologies, and in many industries, there are still rules and regulations. advantage of the rules.

When Western capital enters, it will bring all these brands, technologies, and rules to China. At that time, our local enterprises will inevitably be affected, and many enterprises will be eliminated.

The host went on to ask: Chairman Li, if it is as you said, Western capital brings brands, technologies, and rules to invest in the Chinese market on a large scale, how should our Chinese companies respond?

Two words, upgrade! Li Weidong continued: Enterprises need to upgrade their own technologies and make more competitive products, and it is best to compete with Western companies for the right to speak in the industry.

If we can make rules like the West, then we will be invincible. To become a rule maker, we need to build a complete industrial chain so that we can make rules.

To formulate industry rules is easy to say, but very difficult to do! Professor Huang said from the side.

Li Weidong responded: The road to the rise of a great country is full of thorns. If industry can develop so easily, then the world will be full of industrial powers!

President Cai said: Chairman Li, it is good to be a rule maker, but I don't think it is necessary to build a complete industrial chain, at least not necessary to pursue a complete industrial chain in all fields.

The process of globalization has been implemented for so many years, and the division of labor in various industries on a global scale has long been mature. If you deliberately pursue a complete industrial chain, it is equivalent to breaking the existing mature global division of labor.

Not to mention whether the construction of a complete industrial chain can be successful or not, the cost of building an industrial chain is definitely much higher than using an existing industrial chain. Even if the industrial chain is completed, it will face competition with the existing industrial chain. From a cost point of view, this is not cost-effective.

Li Weidong smiled slightly: To be honest, I have never believed in globalization! I don't believe in the globalization of labor. The concept of globalization was proposed by Americans. The Clinton administration of that year was to promote the so-called globalization.

But I think Americans promote globalization because globalization is good for the United States. As you just said, the US dollar is a global currency, and the US can harvest the world through US dollars and US debt, so Americans want globalization.

But what if one day globalization is no longer beneficial to the United States? Will the United States continue to support globalization? Maybe at that time, the United States will withdraw from various international organizations, give up dialogue with the other side, and only engage in unilateralism, and it is based on the premise that the interests of the United States are first.

Just like international trade, the United States no longer abides by the WTO agreement, but negotiates with more than 100 WTO members separately and reaches more than 100 different bilateral agreements. With the strength of the United States, this model of only talking about bilateral relations can obviously gain more benefits!

How is this possible! Free trade is the value of the United States, how can the United States give up its own value! President Cai curled his lips.

The value of the United States is only in the interests! Li Weidong shrugged and continued: Of course, what I said is just a prediction now. The predictions are accurate and not accurate. Whether my predictions are accurate or not will take time. inspection.

President Cai nodded. He felt that Li Weidong's mention of the word prediction at this time was equivalent to taking a step back and finding a way to go down, and he didn't need to fall into trouble again.

However, Li Weidong went on to say: It's just that my predictions are not inaccurate yet. So here, I also remind entrepreneurs to leave an extra hand in the supply chain.

You can't build the entire supply chain, but you must at least ensure that if the supply chain encounters a malicious interruption one day, you can find a replacement so that the company can survive!

...

The outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis has accelerated the industrial relocation of American industries, and the biggest beneficiary of American industrial relocation is naturally China.

In the early 21st century, China could only rely on low-end manufacturing to earn some hard-earned money. By 2010, China could already dominate part of the international supply chain.

But when the U.S. completely settled the subprime mortgage crisis in 2012, they suddenly discovered that China's position in the international supply chain was no longer something the U.S. could handle by itself.

So after the *** government entered its second term, it began to promote the TPP, and wanted to form a gang to pay China. When it comes to understanding the king, it is simply a trade war and sanctions, which directly help China to promote industrial upgrading.

The acceleration of the outward migration of American industries is inseparable from the four quantitative easings.

During the subprime mortgage crisis, the United States conducted quantitative easing four times. The first time was to lend money to the U.S. government to buy financial derivatives from subprime mortgages. The Fed prints money to lend to the U.S. government.

All the money from QE1 went into the pockets of financial institutions. When financial institutions got the money, they would reinvest it. At that time, the United States and Europe were in deep financial crisis, and there were no suitable projects to invest in, so the money was only Being able to invest in developing countries also promotes the relocation of American industries in disguise.

Part of the money from QE2 to QE4 is used for wars, such as maintaining military missions in Afghanistan and Yinrak, the Libyan war, the Syrian war, and the fight against ISIS, all of which cost money.

Another part is used for the economic policy of the government, the so-called American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, including the reform of the financial system, the reform of education and medical care, the increase of investment in infrastructure construction, and investment in the energy field.

As we all know, the final result is that apart from the achievements in the energy field, the United States has created a shale oil industry and achieved self-sufficiency in oil, but almost nothing else has been accomplished.

For example, in infrastructure investment, dozens of major infrastructure projects were set up at that time, and then discussions were started, but the discussions ended with no results until the end of the *** term.

*** Ambitious to build 20,000 kilometers of high-speed rail for the United States, but just one California high-speed rail has been demonstrated for 14 years. In the past 14 years, China has built nearly 40,000 kilometers of high-speed rail.

And this argument alone cost five billion dollars, and after five billion dollars were spent, not a single rail was seen.

In the end, the money from QE2 to QE4 also entered the US financial system, and was then used by financial institutions to invest in some profitable industries.

It is also for this reason that although the quantitative easing of the *** government has stabilized the US economy, it has not been positively evaluated, because the money has gone around in a circle, and finally fell into the hands of capital, and the common people have not seen it.

Compared with the unlimited QE conducted by the Sleeping King government, the evaluation is much higher, because there is a lot of money in the unlimited QE, which is directly distributed to the common people in the form of cash. At that time, the news reported every day that the United States had sent money again. One person was a few hundred dollars, and that was the money he used.

Although a large part of this money has also flowed into the stock market and property market, pushing up the Nasdaq index and making Tesla stock sky-high, according to economists' estimates, at least one-third is converted Direct consumption for the common people.

It's just that after a period of time, the common people still have to bear the inflationary consequences brought about by issuing money. Not only the United States, but all countries that issued money during the epidemic have experienced severe inflation after more than a year, which is also a sequela of money issuance.

In the face of inflation, the rich must be indifferent. The doubling of daily necessities is just a drizzle for the rich. They are all people who drive Bentley Rolls-Royces, and they still care about the 10 yuan per liter of oil. money? 98 directly fill up, not many beeps!

However, for the poor, it is an unbearable living burden, and it hurts to spend ten yuan more for a tank of oil. The hundreds of thousands of dollars that were issued that year were all spit out in one inflation, and I had to pay a fortune.

Closer to home, the four quantitative easing of the subprime mortgage crisis accelerated the transfer of American industries. At the time of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, industrial transfer was definitely not acceptable.

South Korea, Mexico and other countries have insufficient economic volume and can undertake very few industries. Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and Indonesia lack perfect infrastructure. As for India, everyone knows that it is a pit.

Therefore, the only destination for the transfer of American industries is China. China also took advantage of this period to establish a complete supply chain system.

When the low-end intensive manufacturing industry is transferred to Southeast Asia, China has already controlled the upstream supply chain. Countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh can only serve as a supplement to the Chinese supply chain.

For example, Vietnam, which has worked hard for half a year, has achieved a trade volume of 370 billion US dollars. It claims that its trade has grown by tens of percent. However, after reckoning, there is only a surplus of 700 million US dollars, and the profit is less than 0.4%. Spelling and taking volume promotions are more profitable than this.

This is because Vietnam is doing low-end processing with supplied materials, but has not mastered the complete industrial chain. The upstream is subject to raw material suppliers, and the downstream is subject to market sellers, and they have no pricing power at all.

According to Japan's flying geese theory, in the process of industrial specialization, the countries that undertake the industry should be scattered. The head goose of the United States left part of its core industries and gave some of it to Western Europe, Mexico, Japan and other countries.

Western Europe will then distribute the eliminated industries to Central Europe, followed by Eastern Europe, Mexico will spread its industries to Latin America, and Japan will distribute the industries to the Four Asian Tigers, and then from the Four Asian Tigers to the Four Asian Tigers, and then spread to other Asian countries.

In the end, developed and rich countries retain high value-added industries, while poor and backward countries are able to retain low-value-added industries. All countries add up to form a complete industrial chain, forming the so-called globalization.

However, this theory does not work in China. China is large enough to absorb the entire industrial chain. Therefore, when the industrial chain reaches China, it becomes digested within China, and finally a complete industrial chain is formed.

But this is not the most critical, the most critical is that while China has formed a complete industrial chain, it has also formed a huge domestic market for terminals.

Therefore, when the United States wants to remove the industrial chain from China, it will face two problems. One is that it cannot find a country to undertake such a huge industrial chain, and the other is that capital is no longer inseparable from the Chinese market.

The first question is that the *** government has launched a TPP, which has brought in a large number of Pacific countries, hoping to use the entire Pacific countries to undertake China's industrial chain.

As a result, after knowing Wang came to power, he left the group first, but China wanted to join this TPP and make other TPP countries become vassals of China's industrial chain.

And the second question is really unsolved. It is simply impossible to keep capital away from the market.

For example, in order to suppress China's chip industry, the United States spent more than 50 billion US dollars in subsidies, and created a Chip Law. One of the contents is that companies that take my subsidy are not allowed to invest in China for ten years. . This makes it clear that companies are allowed to choose one side or the other.

However, the first one who jumped out against this clause was not Samsung in South Korea, nor TSMC on the other side, but Intel in the United States.

Intel not only sells tens of billions of dollars in chips every year in China, but also invests in industries such as cloud computing, big data analysis, Internet of Things, smart devices, wearable technology, intelligent robotics, drones, Internet of Vehicles, and virtual reality. , Intel's advance in these industries is to gain more market share in the future.

In order to take billions of dollars in subsidies from the U.S. government and give up tens of billions of dollars in the market, do you really think I am Intel's hammer?

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