Chapter 142 Don’t fall in love with stocks!
"Shanghai Steel Union is indeed the leading soul stock in the two cities. The last fifteen minutes of the last trading session were truly exciting."
After seeing the closing results of Shanghai Stock Exchange and the shocking reversal of this stock in the last fifteen minutes of late trading, some retail investors on the online stock forum couldn't help but marvel.
"There is no support from Fortune Road seats, and despite the negative performance, it is still going so strong. It seems that the market is not over yet!" "I caught up in the early trading. I thought I was buried, but I didn't expect there would be a surprise in the late trading.'
"Today's trend in the Shanghai Stock Exchange is a washout, right?'
"Absolutely. Looking at the time-sharing transactions in the last fifteen minutes of the late trading, it can be seen that big funds are actually buying, and those selling are basically loose orders.'
"Maybe the main force saves itself!'
"Whether it is a washout or self-rescue, you will know later when you look at the Dragon and Tiger List.
"Yes, the Shanghai Steel Federation has a great amplitude today, and the turnover rate is also quite high. There must be a dragon and tiger list."
"Although there is no second consecutive board, despite the market's expected weakness, it still closed sharply higher and outperformed the index. This is enough to prove the strength of this stock, and it is also enough to show that its market is not over.'
"Yes, the originally weak sentiment in the market was directly reversed by the late-day rise."
"However, the late-day rally is still a bit of a surprise. If the market had not been trending very well today and the investment sentiment on the market was hot, I am afraid that the Shanghai Steel Union would have dropped to the limit in the wave at about 1 o'clock.
"On the whole, the main direction of attack by active funds on the market today is on stocks with performance that exceeds expectations." "Where? Many blue-chip and white horse sectors with good performance, except for liquor, have basically remained unchanged. .
"It should be said that stocks in the emerging industry sector that have exceeded expected performance, such as Wangsu Technology and Fenda Technology, are indeed doing better than Shanghai Steel Alliance today."
"The logic is different, I still like Shanghai Steel Union, a company that goes straight to make huge profits.
"Me too, and I saw that after the Shanghai Steel Union appeared on Fortune Road, it fell all the way, and quickly stopped at the height of the ninth board that was the first wave of speculation in the early stage, which is around 20 yuan. This shows that the Shanghai Stock Exchange The logic of Steel Union's future expectations should be recognized by short-term funds in the entire market. Even without the support of Fortune Road's seats, market funds have great expectations for the future of this stock, which naturally shows that this check. ..there’s still a lot of room for upside.”
"Obviously, in the short term, whether it is weak or not, it is strong. This is the performance of the Shanghai Steel Federation today."
"I also feel that Shanghai Steel Union has strong support capabilities in the price range of 20 yuan to 23 yuan. Facts have proved that funds have been sold several times. In so many days, the cumulative turnover rate has exceeded 100%, that is, The chips on the market have almost changed, but Shanghai Steel Union continues to hold on at this position, so the stock price will inevitably rise in the future.
"Yesterday's daily limit should indicate the expected attitude of big funds towards this stock, right?'
When the discussion on Shanghai Steel Union's stock in the online stock forum increased again...someone in Su Yu's main hot money group also expressed surprise at the stock's trend today. .
"The trend of Shanghai Steel Federation today...is somewhat beyond expectations!"
"Indeed, I originally thought that this check could not be pulled up when the mood was fermenting in the early trading. In the afternoon, when all the funds in the market were chasing the performance tickets, it was going to fall to the limit. Unexpectedly, it actually pulled up from the water in the end. The funds used to make this check are worth something!"
"The Shanghai Steel Federation's future expectations are still there, and today the differences have turned into consensus."
“Yes, if many performance stocks that performed well today fall back tomorrow, then funds will naturally flow back into the ‘Internet Finance’ sector headed by Shanghai Steel Federation.
"To be honest... Ge is not optimistic about the main direction of today's funds, especially the liquor sector.'
"Not to mention that the current market is still a game of existing funds. It is impossible to pull these white horses and blue chips that are locked up. Even stocks such as Internet Speed Technology and Fenda Technology are almost time for a correction. After all, from 6 Since the market bottomed out on March 25, the cumulative increase in these stocks has been too great, and the profit margins have accumulated very thickly. At this time, funds are attacking these areas, and it is difficult to continue to create a money-making effect, and it is even more difficult for the general public to make money. Retail investors, in this position, continue to catch up and carry out relays.
"On the other hand, the Shanghai Stock Exchange and many purely conceptual 'Internet financial stocks' have made quite sufficient adjustments recently."
“Also, in this sector, almost all concept stocks have a small circulation, which is very suitable for the current attack direction of market funds.
“I also think that the Shanghai Steel Federation and the ‘Internet Finance’ sector are not over yet.
"After all, it is the core concept of 'financial technology' that is strongly promoted by the country's macroeconomics. I also think we can continue to do it.
"There are no 5x or 10x stocks like this core mainline concept, and it will definitely not end before the end."
"What about the leading target? Do you think it will still be driven by the Shanghai Steel Federation?'
"Currently, Shanghai Iron and Steel Federation is the most popular and has the greatest fund aggregation effect. If we want to do something, it will definitely be based on this check. Of course...Tianyu Information is not bad either.'
"Today, Tianyu Information is indeed doing better than Shanghai Steel Alliance."
"But the trend logic of Tianyu Information today should be completely different from that of Shanghai Steel Federation, right?
"Hey, the Shanghai Steel League or the Su brothers were so hurtful on the day they came on the scene. I'm afraid it will be very difficult to cross that huge negative line in the future!"
"Well, indeed...this check is essentially the core concept of Brother Su."
"It's a pity that Brother Su cleared his position at a high position after two waves of huge profits. He shouldn't come back again, right?'
"It's hard to say, Brother Su rarely plays his cards according to the routine!"
"Let's take a look at the Dragon and Tiger List. It was quite courageous to raise the funds of Shanghai Steel Union at the end of the day today. I wonder which one is the main force?'
Following the heated discussion, at 5:30 pm, the new Dragon and Tiger list was announced.
The Shanghai Steel Federation is on the list, and Su Yu’s Yuhang Fortune Road seat is on the buy list.
Although his seat purchase funds are not large, only 9.9 million, ranking third on the buy list, which is far inferior to buying one or two, when the majority of investors in the market saw that Yuhang Fortune Road appeared again in Shanghai Steel Union to buy At the moment when the list was announced, the crowd was still excited, and the discussion exploded in an instant.
"Damn it, Fortune Road appears on the Shanghai Steel Federation Dragon and Tiger List again!"
“Haha... Fortune Road is finally back, I knew it, I knew it... Shanghai Steel Union’s market will never end.
"I finally waited for the return of the King of Fortune Road. I was so moved... I took over the chips at 29 yuan. I hope I can finally get rid of the trap this time, right?'
"Shanghai Steel Union is indeed a favorite stock of Fortune Road!'
"What's the 'Rejuvenation' concept stock, what's the 'Internet Finance' concept leader, in my opinion...the biggest rising logic of Shanghai Steel Union is the Fortune Road concept. Only Fortune Road can dominate this stock," he said. People continue to take a high look, but what I didn’t say... is to grab the money tomorrow.'
“But today’s Fortune Road buying funds are not huge!’
“Today should be Fortune Road’s test position, right? Don’t worry, I think since Fortune Road is still buying, it will definitely continue to increase positions.
"It doesn't matter how much money you buy from Fortune Road. What matters is your attitude.'
"Yes, as long as you follow the trend quickly, you will not lose money at all within three trading days after buying on Fortune Road."
"Shanghai Steel United is considered the biggest bull stock in the market this year, right?'
"No, if we calculate the overall increase from the beginning of the year to today, Hua Qingbao is the real leader. Although Shanghai Steel Union has experienced two consecutive surges in the past two months, the corrections in each wave are also fierce. , it frequently rises or falls, and the overall increase is actually not that big.'
“Shanghai Steel Union can only be considered a monster stock, not a bull stock.
"But whether it is a monster stock or a bull stock, as long as it is one that Fortune Road has taken care of, it will be good. And if you see Fortune Road buying, you can buy it with confidence, just don't go up a lot later. Just keep chasing higher.”
"Indeed, speaking of it, the stocks that are rising sharply in the current market are all Fortune Road concept stocks!"
"Isn't that? Fenda Technology, Wangsu Technology, Huaqingbao, Changqu Technology, Tianyu Information... these tickets, which Fortune Road has never done? And in Fenda Technology, Huaqingbao, Tianyu Information, etc. The surge in stocks from the bottom is basically the work of Fortune Road.'
“I have to say that Fortune Road’s ability to dig out bullish stocks and create monster stocks is really unique.’
“There is no one with the strongest hot money in the current market.
Throughout the entire online and offline, countless retail investors who follow Shanghai Steel Federation are excited and surging. In the main hot money group where Su Yu belongs, everyone is also quite shocked by the Dragon and Tiger ranking data of Shanghai Steel Federation.
"Damn it, it's really Brother Su!"
"I just said that the funds that boosted the stock price of Shanghai Steel Union in the late trading had something to do with it, and it turned out to be true."
"Brother Su has made two in and two out. On this stock, he has made almost 5 times the profit, which is enough to make people envious and jealous. Are brothers Su planning to do it again?'
"It's very possible!'
"Looking at the market situation, after the Su brothers' seats were exposed again, the popularity of Shanghai Steel Union has directly soared to the first place in the hot stock rankings of the two cities.'
"I have to say, Brother Su is the best!"
"However, if the Shanghai Steel Federation continues to see another wave of market trends in this position, there should not be many people who dare to follow the trend, right? Can they be pulled up? Moreover, Brother Su's seat has too much influence. If he enters the market on a large scale, After that, especially after the two or three board heights are raised, I am afraid that many major funds will not dare to enter the market again.'
"After all, according to early experience, if it is too long after the Su brothers enter the field, they will follow the trend and relay at a high position."
"Once the Su brothers quickly come out and smash the market, the effect of retail investors following suit and smashing the market will be quite terrifying. No main funds can afford it."
Can catch it. ’
"Just like those major hot money companies that were taken over by the Shanghai Steel Union 30, they were directly massacred by the Su brothers.
"As long as the Shanghai Steel Federation's logic is strong enough, there will be no problem.'
"When Brother Su enters the market, there shouldn't be much risk within the third board. Outside of the third board, it's hard to say."
"Even if it is the height of the third board, it has to directly touch the 30 yuan position. That is a solid area for chips to be locked in. Brother Su shot him dead this time... Li Dao is really planning to join the People's Liberation Army?'
“It’s hard to say, Brother Su’s third appearance makes me less daring to follow.
"Take a step, take a look!'
"If the Shanghai Steel Federation, with the blessing of Brother Su's seat, really goes to a new high position of 30 yuan, when all the chips in the market are released, then I have to say that it can really take a high look.'
"Based on the two hard-core concepts of 'Rejuvenation System' and 'Internet Finance', the price of 30 yuan is almost the limit. Before the Su brothers came on the scene, they should also agree with 30 yuan. The bottom is three times the height. I think At the position of 30 yuan, it will be difficult to open up more space without other favorable incentives!'
"Overall, the height is too high. It depends on the combined force of market funds and changes in sentiment at every step of Shanghai Steel Union."
"But no matter what, the check from Shanghai Steel Federation has undoubtedly become the symbol of the Su brothers' seats. It is truly comparable to the time when Mr. Xu managed Yuzhou Beer."
"Yes, even if you are watching, seeing the Su brothers entering and exiting the Shanghai Steel Union and reaping several times profits, it is exciting and amazing!'
"But most people really can't hold this vote.'
"Don't talk about others. I entered and exited three times, but I didn't get the result. The total profit was less than 30%, which is miserable."
"Uh... 30% profit is still miserable? I've done more relays than you, but the total profit is less than 20%. "You're really screwed!'
The messages in the group continued to be refreshed. Su Yu looked at it for a while, did not speak, and closed the chat box in the group.
After establishing a private equity institution, as the amount of funds he handled became larger and larger, and as his seat became more and more influential, it was no longer easy for him to speak publicly.
After all, at this time
Every bit of his remarks may be amplified by the market, causing him unnecessary trouble.
If he really wanted to speak out and show some of his thoughts and opinions, he felt that the Dragon and Tiger ranking data revealed by the seats alone would be enough.
After exiting the group chat.
Su Yu took advantage of the opportunity before getting off work to continue to learn about the changes in positions of Jingda Investment's main funds from Lin Antu.
Knowing that the other party had indeed significantly reduced its holdings of Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao, and that it confirmed that his operating strategy was correct, he and Li Meng left work together with the company.
In the evening, as the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and ChiNext Index rebounded for two consecutive days.
The investment sentiment of the entire market has obviously recovered a lot.
For example, Shanghai Steel Union, Fenda Technology, Wangsu Technology, Huaqingbao, Changqu Technology, Tianyu Information... these core popular stocks on the GEM have continued to gain popularity, and the number of optimistic investors has also increased; and Investors who hold shares in the traditional financial sector, real estate, non-ferrous metals, steel, coal and other main board weighted sectors are still full of complaints and anger.
certainly
For example, today the overall sector rose by more than 3%, driving the entire "big consumption" rebound in the liquor sector.
Today, we are proud and proud, which has made many investors and large financial institutions trapped in this sector breathe a sigh of relief, giving rise to considerable hope of reversing the predicament.
Moreover, it benefited from the excellent performance of many stocks in the sector.
Core, first- and second-tier liquor brand stocks such as Qianzhou Moutai, Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Jincheng Fenjiu, etc., have been praised by numerous securities firms and investment institutions in buying research reports, and there is even an investment analysis by 'Anhe Securities' The teacher made a long analysis in the research report, and directly shouted the slogan of "ten times in five years" for these first- and second-tier liquor brand stocks, attracting the attention of many investors.
"Ten times in five years, these analysts really dare to say that!'
Li Meng read a lot of institutional research reports on the liquor sector and complained speechlessly.
Su Yu chuckled and said: "Some of the data in the agency's research report can be used as a reference, but if you really believe in their buying and selling suggestions, you are really stupid. Speaking of which... the 'ten times in five years' in the ship wine sector is not It's not impossible, and it's possible... if it's applied to any stock in the entire market.'
"After all, there is no certainty about the future, so you can say whatever you want."
“No matter how powerful an investment analyst is, he cannot see through and predict the market situation and industry changes in one or two years in advance, let alone five years.
"The current investment by market institutions, and 99.9% of fund managers, are just looking at quarterly and annual reports." "The speculation is only based on expectations for three months or half a year.'
"Who would be stupid enough to look at it in three or five years? After all, even the company itself doesn't know what its business situation will be like in three or five years.'
"Put it on the stock price
"Even if the performance has increased continuously for five years, the stock price trend in the market may first halve and then rise several times." Li Meng listened to his words, smiled, and said: "You mean these research results The trading opinions reported are not trustworthy, and in fact, the entire market and most long-term investments are just fortune telling!"
"Yes!" Su Yu said with a genuine smile, "Long-term investment and short-term investment are actually probabilistic investments. The so-called value investment and stock price speculation are essentially...different approaches to the same goal.'
"Is there really value investing in this market?" Li Meng asked after a pause.
Su Yu thought for a while and replied: "Well...for investors, it is faith. If you believe it exists, then it exists. If you think that all investments are essentially probabilistic investments, then it does not exist." .
"If not, how can we explain Berkshire's success?" Li Meng said in confusion.
Su Yu replied with a smile: "Thanks to the long-term growth of the U.S. stock market and the continuous improvement of national strength, when the macro environment has been very good, the operating risks and profitability of enterprises are relatively optimistic. At this time, individuals or Fund managers can achieve cycle-smoothing results through excellent position control and stock selection. Of course... fund managers who can essentially achieve this over the years are very rare.
"Preferred stocks." Li Meng said, "This is originally an explanation of value investing!'
Su Yu replied: "That's not necessarily true. In your opinion...what kind of corporate stocks do you think are excellent?'
Li Mengmeng thought for a while and said: "The operation is stable, the management has a broad vision and is down-to-earth, the wealth indicators are healthy and far ahead of its peers, it has core competitiveness, and has a wide moat...
"What about?" Su Yu continued to ask.
"As for A-shares, Qianzhou Moutai, Yangtze Electric Power, Gree Electric, Kewan Real Estate... Li Meng blurted out and gave examples of more than a dozen stocks.
Su Yu nodded with a smile and said: "According to the fundamental situation you mentioned, from the so-called corporate moat such as industry status, product pricing power, core technology brand influence, as well as historically excellent financial indicators and solid operating performance, Look, these...are really good stocks.'
"But this only shows that their historical performance and historical performance are very excellent."
"And when we invest, we look at the future.'
"Take Qianzhou Moutai, which you think has a unique business model and a very wide brand moat, as an example. Looking into the future, can its performance continue to grow?'
"Of course this is not possible!" Li Meng said, "No company can maintain its performance growth rate forever."
Su Yu nodded and said: "Yes, all excellence is relative. No matter how outstanding a company's history is, there will be times when performance stalls and fundamentals deteriorate. The so-called always seeking excellent corporate investments and practicing value investing is originally It's a false proposition. How do you know that it will continue to be excellent and its intrinsic stock value will continue to increase in the future?'
“So, in my opinion, stocks that have historically performed well
"The only thing that can give people some comfort is that it will make investors feel that its future performance will be worse than its historical performance. There is just a little more probability of continued excellent performance."
"Looking at Balao's investment history, he has been trial and error for decades. He is only using the principle of selecting stocks with excellent historical performance to increase the certainty of future investment. You I have never seen Balao invest in emerging industry stocks and stocks with no historical performance, right? That's the reason.'
“But by following this, sometimes you will fall into an ‘investment trap’
"When you accept the concept of value investing, when you believe that a company or a stock will continue to be excellent, then when its performance stalls and the stock price drops sharply, you will not notice it and will continue to do so. Believe that the intrinsic value of the company has not changed, but that the market is wrong. Under this illusion, generally an investor will not stop losses in time, but on the contrary, he will most likely continue to increase his position, because He believes value will eventually return.
"So, in my opinion, for the average investor."
“Especially for individual investors whose error tolerance is far lower than that of large institutions, value investing is an evil path.”
"When you fall in love with stocks, the final result is not to break up, but to be scarred by it, and eventually your faith collapses. In my opinion... the value of any stock is praised by market investors." Investing in stocks', its inherent nature has the demeanor of a 'scumbag'!'
