Chapter 143 The essence of trading is probability investment
"So... in your opinion, what is the right investment?" Li Meng asked.
Su Yu thought for a while and said: "There is no certain correct way to invest, because investment is inherently facing an uncertain future. What we can do is to increase the probability of investment profitability, regardless of 'value investment', 'trend investment' Investment', 'K-line technology investment... various schools, in fact, the essential thing they do is to try every means to increase the probability of profit from this kind of investment.
"What we can do
"It's just based on your own cognition and analysis, no matter what method you use, to achieve this fundamental goal." "If you can't see through this layer and believe in any investment school, it is a wrong path.
“Because only the methods and methods that suit you and conform to your own cognition can help you truly form your own trading system.
“Of course, since these genre techniques are widely circulated in the market, they are not useless.”
"It's just that when it comes to these 'technical' things, there's no need to get too obsessed.'
"After all, these are just summaries of experience, and the market does not change linearly, but has no rules and no definite logic at all.'
"That is to say, there is no stock god in this world, right!" Li Meng suddenly felt that his understanding of 'investing in a way' was vaguely deeper, and asked with a smile, "Everyone is actually just betting on probability. "
"Yes!" Su Yu replied, "The essence of trading is probability.
"Just saying
"The same transaction probability will sometimes have different results. Of course...the decisive factor is other things that need to be paid attention to.
"Yeah!" Li Meng nodded, "In addition to judgment, risk control will also bring different outcomes."
Of course, Su Yu had mentioned before about how to control risks and stop losses. After this period of practice, Li Meng had mastered some of them, so naturally he would not ask again.
The two continued chatting for a while before going to bed separately.
The next day, Wednesday, July 17th.
As soon as Su Yu arrived at the company, he received a call from his soon-to-be brother-in-law Zhang Jianbo. The other party said that after a week of preliminary contact, Ancai Paper Group had agreed to formal negotiations.
Despite the current situation of Ancai Paper Industry, the progress of this matter was within his expectations.
But when he really saw the dawn of winning that piece of land, he was still extremely excited.
Su Yu replied to Zhang Jianbo, letting him negotiate with peace of mind, and said that as long as the other party's asking price was within 100 million, there was no need to impose too many other conditions. It was important to seize the time and win the land.
There are still more than ten days and less than half a month before Kumho Group's internal shareholders' meeting is held.
For the time being, due to the fierce internal disputes and conflicts of interest within Kumho Group, the entire group has not yet focused on the backdoor listing.
This is the best time for him to secretly take action and win the key chips for the subsequent game.
If the talks are not settled during this period, when the internal disputes of Kumho Group are settled, the need to sort out interests will return to the core of backdoor listing, and have in-depth contact with Ancai Paper, then... he will try to seize food from the tiger's mouth again. , which is basically impossible.
After Zhang Jianbo inspected the location and area of the land,
Although I am still not sure of Su Yu's real motives, I have to admit that it is a treasure land, but it is far away from the core urban area and does not conform to the current overall urban planning direction of Yuhang. In addition, the current real estate market Just like the stock market, it is also experiencing a downturn, so no one is rushing to compete for this land.
Plus this is an industrial land.
Without macroeconomic and urban planning support from the province and city, it would be difficult to convert it to commercial development.
"Okay!" After listening to Su Yu's instructions, Zhang Jianbo responded on the phone, "After our investigation and understanding, the land where Ancai Paper's factory is located must be relocated and vacated under the pressure of the Environmental Protection Bureau. , currently we have no competitors, and comparing the area and market price, we can definitely win it for 100 million yuan.”
"Don't worry, I will definitely save whatever costs can be saved."
"But if I can't save money, I will naturally not 'lose a big deal for a small amount' and let the cost damage the original negotiation results."
Su Yu replied with a smile: "Brother Jianbo, I feel at ease when doing things. Of course...if the other party's asking price is too high, exceeding 100 million yuan, and they really can't make concessions and can't negotiate, you can give it to me again." Call me and I'll figure it out."
Negotiation is a game.
Although Ancai Paper is in urgent need of funds to complete the relocation of the new site and the establishment of a new product line, and it is also facing great administrative pressure, it does not rule out that the other party will bite the price, strive for premium profits, and extend the negotiation period. Case.
Therefore, on his side, in case of emergencies.
It is necessary to have backup plans.
Fortunately, he now has the maximum amount of funds at his disposal, that is, if he withdraws all the funds in his stock account, he can still collect nearly 30 million, which is fully able to cope with emergencies.
"Okay!" Zhang Jianbo responded with a smile and then hung up the phone.
After Su Yu answered the phone, he immediately turned around and returned to the company's fund trading room, focusing his attention on the two market quotation interfaces where the call auction had ended and was in a brief suspension stage before 9:30.
only saw
Due to the unsatisfactory trend of U.S. stocks last night, many of the investment sentiments that warmed up yesterday were offset. As a result, the three major indexes, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Composite Index, and ChiNext Index, all opened lower by almost 0.5%.
Sectors and individual stocks.
The major concept sectors of 'Electronic Information', 'Apple Industry Chain', and 'Mobile Games' that were strong yesterday all opened higher today. The main board's 'Liquor Concept' and 'White Home Appliances' concept sectors opened slightly red; among them, the popular concept stocks in each sector opened higher. , stocks such as Fenda Technology, Wangsu Technology, Changqu Technology, Jincheng Fenjiu, Gree Electric, Boss Electric, etc. also opened slightly higher, and the mood was relatively good.
As for Shanghai Steel Federation
Thanks to Su Yu’s seat bonus and yesterday’s unexpected late trading trend.
Today's check, during the collective bidding stage, attracted the attention of most short-term funds in the entire market. There was a certain rush for funds, and it opened almost 2 points higher.
In addition to these stocks, there are potential concept stocks in the so-called "Shanghai Free Trade Zone" newly established as "Yuhang No. 1".
Performance was not so good.
Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao, which have sluggish performance, continued to open lower today after bucking the trend yesterday, and during the call auction, even if Su Yu and Li Meng did not put pressure on the market, their capital trading conditions were still very low. The obvious selling of large orders suppressed the trend, which proved that the main funds in the market, other than them, continued to be unfavorable about these two checks and insisted on cutting positions and stopping losses.
Except for Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, which were the worst performers.
For example, Lujiazui, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Pudong Jinqiao, Jinjiang Investment, etc., are much duller. There is no financial attention and no obvious selling pressure. They just follow the fluctuations of the index and have no autonomy.
Su Yu took advantage of the five minutes between the short trading pauses to carefully sort out the individual stocks he was paying attention to and the overall market conditions of the two cities. He smiled and said: "The volume was heavy in the past two days, and I was emotionally drained. Today I encountered a bad external market situation. , it seems... the index has to take two steps and look back again."
"Well!" Li Meng responded and said, "The market still lacks incremental funds, and the existing funds have always been playing games. That's why whenever there is a disturbance in the external market, A-shares will not be stable, and there is a high probability of a correction. trend.”
Su Yu chuckled and said: "This is inevitable. After all, when the index bottoms out and the initial stage of bear-bull transition is originally a hazy period for the market, coupled with the lack of confidence you mentioned, the stock game, and the extremely limited new entry funds, The hold-up plate ahead is heavy, and you need to consume it bit by bit... and other reasons. The index turns back three times in one step, and turns back once in two steps. This is a healthy trend state, and... If at this stage, there is a continuous trend of holding high and hitting high, That is the precursor of the inevitable correction of the index. In fact, at this stage, it is easy to grasp the rhythm well, and the success rate of doing T will be quite high."
His voice is loud.
He said this not only to Li Meng, but also to Wang Can and several other new traders.
Li Meng smiled and nodded. He glanced at the time, which was quickly approaching 9:30, and asked, "Should we continue yesterday's operation?"
"Yes!" Su Yu nodded, "Taking advantage of the index correction is a good time to pressure the market and create panic." According to the detailed position information he received from 'Jingda Investment', the other party was in the Shanghai-Hong Kong Group Although the share of fund holdings in Waigaoqiao is not particularly large, the absolute market value of the holdings is not small. The combined market value of the overall holdings of the two stocks exceeds 200 million. And take the liquidity of Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao.
If you want to clear out the market value of these 200 million positions, it will not happen overnight.
Therefore, in order to make the other party liquidate their positions as soon as possible and help them reduce the cost of holding positions to an extremely low position, if you should use the chips in your hand to continue to suppress the market, then you have to suppress it.
Moreover, it is on the way to suppress Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao.
Su Yu also had to use the funds in his hands to continue to raise funds for Jincheng Fenjiu, creating a situation where funds continued to be raised and the trend continued to be strong.
Only in this way can the other party believe that the liquor sector is on the way to a 'difficulty reversal'.
Only in this way can the other party continue to add the funds reduced by Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group to the heavy liquor sector that can rapidly increase the net value of the other party's fund.
then
When 9:30 arrived, the stagnant stock prices in the two cities began to change.
Su Yu and Li Meng quickly began to repeat yesterday's operating routine, focusing on the opportunity to sell large orders, competing with each other to take over the buying orders, and smashed the market of Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group.
At the same time, other traders used fund sub-accounts with limited funds.
Do intraday operation exercises on several strong stocks that the fund holds large-scale positions. Follow the techniques and methods taught by Su Yu to become familiar with the market trends and improve your own operation skills and market sense.
And during this period
As the core concern of the two cities, Shanghai Steel Union has embarked on a continuous fundraising trend with one yang crossing the four lines.
