Chapter 144: Deep into the Trap
In its continued rise and strength, the "Internet Entry" concept sector, which has underperformed the GEM Index for many days, has once again returned as the king, leading the gains in both markets.
And due to the continuous drive of Shanghai Steel Federation.
Many short-term funds in the market that were chasing performance stocks yesterday began to flow out of the performance stocks that had risen sharply yesterday, and flowed into many core concept stocks at relatively low prices, performing continuous speculation of high and low switching.
Facing the high and low flow of short-term funds in the market and the switching of hot spots in the entire market.
In addition to continuing to pressure Waigaoqiao, Su Yu continued to follow the large orders that continued to attack the buying on Jincheng Fenjiu to grab selling orders, prompting the funds raised to continue to attack Jincheng Fenjiu's stock price upwards, without any unnecessary operations.
In his opinion, the Shanghai Steel Federation has ended the second wave of speculation, that is, it has come down from the 30-yuan floor. The room for adjustment is almost there, but there is still a little time left.
what he needs now
It is just necessary for the Shanghai Steel Federation to maintain continued market attention and popularity. It is not necessary for the Shanghai Steel Federation to adjust at this time when the adjustment is not particularly sufficient, and it is far away from the potential major benefits of the 'Shanghai Free Trade Zone'. When there was a considerable time gap, he rashly launched an attack on the heavy chip holding range of 30 yuan.
In essence, there is potentially major good news in the ‘Shanghai Free Trade Zone’.
It has not yet been vaguely informed by many short-term main funds in the market relying on information channels, that is to say, there is no new major benefit to support the Shanghai Steel Union.
Su Yu felt that this check should continue to expand beyond 30 yuan.
It is still quite difficult at present.
Therefore, when he has gathered popularity and funds in Shanghai Steel Union and does not lack any attention from the market, that is, when he does not need to stimulate anymore and maintains popularity, he will not pursue positions and further intensify the situation. The stock price of Shanghai Steel Union and its investment sentiment.
As the hot spots in the entire market continue to switch, the index lacks upward momentum and continues to move downward in the process of correction.
The inside of ‘Jingda Investment’ at this time.
Gu Chijiang, the main fund manager and general manager of the company, is looking at the Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group, which have fallen more sharply than the index during the index correction, and have shown obvious resistance to the decline, and are still going up against the trend. There is no shortage of big stocks. The Jincheng Fenjiu market, which showed traces of the fund-raising attack, finally recognized the fact that the liquor sector's "difficulty was reversed", and finally decided to add the funds deducted from Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group to the liquor sector. operation plan.
"Director Hao, after many first- and second-tier liquor brand companies announced their performance, the liquor sector has continued to perform better than the market. Isn't it enough to illustrate the reality of the liquor industry's 'difficulty reversal'?" Gu Chijiang said with a huge smile in the trading room. In front of the market quotation screen, with his hands behind his back, he asked Hao Weilai, the company's market analyst director, with a smile, "I want to continue to increase my share of the liquor sector. What do you think?'
"Of course this is great!" Hao Weilai said happily, "Judging from the market trajectory in the past two days, the main funds in the market have already made their choice.
"In other words
“In other words, the logic of ‘difficulty reversal’ in the liquor sector has been recognized by these major market institutions.
"Looking at the trends of core liquor stocks such as Jincheng Fenjiu, Qianzhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, the capital inflows in the past two days are very obvious."
"This already shows that these main funds are constantly increasing their positions in these stocks."
"Among them, Jincheng Fenjiu is the most important. Looking at the trend of the liquor sector in the past two days, Jincheng Fenjiu has been leading the rise, and has the largest net inflow of funds."
“Looking again at Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao
"After the disclosure of the semi-annual report, the trend of these two checks has collapsed. Yesterday it bucked the trend and fell. After the opening of the market today, there was no sign of compensatory growth. Instead, it continued to fall."
"This is obviously abandoned by funds. It also shows that other major funds in the market are consistent with our understanding and choices and are not optimistic about their future."
"Fortunately, Mr. Gu was wise and immediately issued trading orders to reduce positions in Waigaoqiao and Shanghai-Hong Kong Group.
“I think investing is about trial and error.
“It means constantly discarding stocks that do not meet expectations, and choosing stocks with obvious signs of future performance growth and extremely high expectations of stock price reversal, and then firmly holding them to obtain excess returns from the market.”
"Although our fund has done very well in retracement in the past six months, its active attack is still slightly insufficient."
"Now the signs of a 'difficult reversal' in the liquor sector are already very obvious, and the market index has been fluctuating back and forth for almost a month at 2,000 points. I think this is almost the bottom. We should change our thinking and move the fund The investment strategy shifts from defense to offense.”
"Although the GEM seems to be the core driving direction of this round of market conditions."
"But the high-quality stocks among them have indeed been speculated too high, and the valuation of 100PE is simply unaffordable."
"Looking at the entire market at this time, there is really no investment sector that is more attractive than the liquor sector, and the future expectations are also very strong."
In Hao Weilai's talking room
Team leader Lin of the trading team on the side wanted to say something, but hesitated. He sighed softly and swallowed his words.
He advocated diversification of investments and continued to keep positions to observe Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao. However, the market trend in the past two days proved his view, which would only bring losses to the fund and further decline in the net worth.
Therefore, at this moment, he felt a little lack of confidence in his heart.
Moreover, after his careful analysis last night, he really could not find any logical flaw in the current liquor.
As many institutional research reports and opinions expressed by many institutions, the current valuation of first- and second-tier liquor is truly the lowest in history.
At this historically low valuation, invest in the liquor sector
The ratio of risk to future profit is quite attractive. Even if he disagrees, he can't find any point to refute it.
"What does Team Leader Lin think?"
Noticing that Team Leader Lin was hesitant to speak, Gu Chijiang was silent for a moment and asked for his opinion before issuing the final trading order.
Team leader Lin thought for a while and said seriously: "Although Director Hao's investment logic is optimistic about the liquor sector's 'difficulty reversal' logic, no loopholes can be found. Moreover, the liquor industry has experienced the impact of 'plasticizers'. It is true that the worst industry situation has passed, and there are opportunities and substantial motivations for "difficulty reversal", but... Mr. Gu, I have always felt that too concentrated positions will aggravate the accumulation of fund risks, which is not a good thing, because of the investment logic Although there is no problem, it is sometimes difficult to eliminate the 'black swan' in the market."
The ‘plasticizer’ incident is considered a black swan, right?” Hao Weilai said with a smile, “Team Leader Lin is right, but we don’t
If you are bitten by a snake once, you will be afraid of the rope for ten years, right? The black swan of 'plasticizer' just happened before, so it will not happen again later. After all, there are so many 'black swans' in this market?'
"And, according to what you said
“When investing in any industry, you may face a ‘black swan’.”
"Is it because we are afraid that we will not invest?"
"I think Director Hao misunderstood." Team leader Lin said, "My opinion is to spread the positions as much as possible. No matter how optimistic about an industry, I think the overall position line of the fund cannot exceed 30%, and we are currently in The position in Jincheng Fenjiu has exceeded 30%, reaching 35%, so in order to spread the risk, I think we should not increase our position in the liquor sector, which will intensify the concentration of risks.'
"In addition to the liquor sector, does Team Leader Lin think there is any sector with greater certainty in the entire market?" Hao Weilai disagreed with Team Leader Lin's opinion and asked with a chuckle, "I also know that there are risks in investment. Diversification is the best policy, but what we need most right now is performance. When we see certain opportunities, do we have to sit back and do nothing, and deliberately buy some stocks with less certainty and worse stock price trends in order to spread risks? "
Gu Chijiang was silent for a while, and then asked: "Team Leader Lin, do you think there is any sector with greater certainty than liquor?"
If there are other investment sectors with greater certainty.
He feels that it is not impossible to diversify positions.
Team leader Lin thought for a while and said: "Based on the recent market trends and capital flows, there should be no greater certainty on the main board than the liquor sector, but I think... In fact, the GEM index can Those with moderate participation and deeper participation include LeTV, Internet Speed Technology, Fenda Technology, etc.
"Ah. On 100PE, are you taking over the orders for hot money?"
Hearing this, Hao Weilai couldn't help but chuckle, thinking that Team Leader Lin was talking nonsense.
At this time, to take over GEM stocks that have increased by more than 50% more than the Shanghai Composite Index, and to take over so-called growth stocks whose valuations are generally at least three times higher than the core stocks on the main board, isn’t that just swinging on a cliff and courting death?
When Gu Chijiang heard what Team Leader Lin said, he also frowned deeply.
After losing the opportunity, at this time, changing the defensive state and chasing GEM stocks will indeed put the positions pursued by the fund at greater risk of loss.
After all, if you are chasing after a very high valuation, let alone a huge correction, whether you can withstand it.
Moreover, if the performance of such mid- and small-capitalization stocks suddenly changes, the consequences will be disastrous.
So...he can't do this, and he doesn't agree with this investment strategy.
Thinking of this, Gu Chijiang glanced at Jincheng Fenjiu, which had already risen to 2%, and finally breathed out a breath and issued a new order: "Add the funds from the sale of Shanghai-Hong Kong Group and Waigaoqiao to Baijiu." Sector, of course, given that the position of Jincheng Fenjiu is already relatively heavy, some funds can be diversified into the stock of Qianzhou Moutai."
