Chapter 438: Small Profits for Others, Huge Profits for Him

Everyone agrees with Ye Zishu's words. At present, many things are difficult to clarify. For things that cannot be defined, a relatively conservative strategy is adopted.

On the contrary, it has more tolerance for emerging industries, because everyone has never seen it before, so it is impossible to make a comprehensive and accurate evaluation, but there is more room for development.

"These two new energy sources have their own advantages and disadvantages. The cost of laying solar power is relatively low, and the requirements for the environment are relatively low. As long as there is sunshine, it can be laid, and the requirements for the natural environment are not very harsh.

It's just that the efficiency of solar power generation is not very high at present. As long as this problem is solved, solar power generation will have a promising future.

The disadvantages are also obvious, that is, it can only generate electricity during the day, and it is almost impossible to generate electricity at night, and the seasonal changes are relatively large. If you want to make good use of it without causing serious waste, you need ultra-high energy regulation technology.

The investment in wind power generation is large, the requirements for the environment are relatively strict, and there are requirements for wind speed. Not all places can install wind turbines.

But the advantages are also obvious, that is, it can generate electricity no matter day or night, and the requirements for peak regulation in large time periods are relatively low, but the requirements for peak regulation in small time periods are relatively high.

I mean, both have the potential to develop, and it is possible to do both in the future, but at present I think the priority is to develop solar power generation technology, which is the best choice. "Leaf Book said.

At present, he has no effective way to reduce the power generation efficiency of wind energy. At most, he can do some tricks on the generator, but it takes a lot of thought and there is not much room for improvement.

The ultimate goal of his investment is to get a return, at least cheaper than coal power, if it is higher than coal power, there will be no competitiveness.

At the current stage, it is impossible for him to get subsidies from the state. It is already considered good not to allow wind energy to go online at a loss. It is no wonder that he can make money. This is the main reason why he does not choose wind energy.

Of course, there are some technical reasons. He believes that the ideal place for wind power generation is the ocean, without the obstruction of mountains, with relatively uniform wind force and the highest power generation efficiency, so there is no need to think too much about hourly short-term peak regulation.

However, the deployment of wind power generation on the ocean requires professional equipment. At present, he has not configured related industries. It is not cost-effective to develop supporting equipment for wind power generation alone.

In contrast, although solar power generation has a power generation gap between day and night, other problems are easy to solve. At least he has advanced technology to solve these shortcomings.

Hearing that he decided to develop solar power generation, the person in charge of the legal department said: "Mr. Ye chose to develop the solar power generation industry, did he make a huge breakthrough in the efficiency of solar power generation?"

In fact, the power generation efficiency is not the main problem, but the unit power generation cost is the main problem. As long as the power generation cost is low enough, it is enough to increase the area.

In densely populated places, the requirements for land area are relatively strict, but in my country's Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, XJ, Qinghai and other places, land is not a problem at all.

Anyway, solar power generation does not need good land. As long as there is no large-scale wind and sand, any relatively flat land can be used for solar power generation.

Ye Zishu nodded and said, "You guessed it right. The solar photovoltaic power generation efficiency I developed this time has reached 95%. Even if the actual production environment is reduced, the power generation efficiency can still be maintained at more than 90%."

Having said this, even those who do not understand solar power generation at the scene were surprised. It was said just now that the efficiency of the most advanced solar power generation is less than 20%.

And the technology brought out by the boss can actually achieve 95% of the level. The gap between the two is really too big, and there is no comparison at all.

In fact, this power generation efficiency can be further improved by adding more layers of light-energy-capturing materials, but he thinks it is unnecessary, and the diminishing marginal effect of cost is too obvious.

With such a power generation efficiency, it is enough to dominate the world. In fact, the third-generation semiconductor solar power generation efficiency of the previous generation reached 65%.

But the price is too high, mainly for space equipment.

Although everyone is not engaged in solar energy, they also know that with such a high power generation efficiency, as long as the cost is not high, it must be profitable. Perhaps solar power generation is really promising.

So the person in charge of the finance department asked: "Although such a high power generation efficiency is very important, the cost is the key to commercial development."

Although he didn't ask about the specific cost of power generation, Ye Zishu didn't hide it when he asked about it, and said directly: "As far as the technical level is concerned, the cost of this kind of solar power generation will be very high, and it doesn't have the value of large-scale commercialization.

The specific method is to superimpose special single-layer molecular materials layer by layer. At present, there is no technology in the world that can do this. For a long time in the future, it will be difficult to have technology that can easily do this.

If it is prepared in the laboratory according to the principle, not to mention whether it can be done, even if it is done, the price is comparable to gold, or even more expensive. "

Originally, when he said this, he thought it would cause a burst of exclamation, but the result was not as he expected, as if he could solve this problem, everyone was waiting for him to continue talking.

Seeing this situation, he suddenly felt that life was boring, so he had to continue: "But we can use mature technology to do this first, and reduce the cost to a level that we can afford.

The power generation industry calculates the cost according to how much per watt. Our solar power generation technology is estimated to have an actual cost of about 1 yuan per watt, which is lower than the current cost of semiconductor solar power generation technology.

However, based on the cost of technology, the cost announced to the public is definitely not this figure. It is necessary to leave enough profit margins for each link, and everyone can do a good job of keeping it secret. "

The cost he mentioned is the limit cost. If there is enough profit margin for each link, it means that the ex-factory price will be 10 times higher, reaching 10 yuan per watt.

Due to the high sensitivity of this solar power generation technology, the effective power generation time is much longer than that of ordinary solar power generation. In general, it can reach 2000 standard hours per year, which is twice as long as the effective power generation time of ordinary solar power generation.

Then, with a standard area of ​​one square meter, the power generation power is 1,000 watts, and the external sales price is 10,000 yuan. According to the design life of 25 years, the entire cycle power generation is 50,000 kwh.

That is to say, the cost per kilowatt-hour of electricity is 0.2 yuan, and the on-grid electricity price may be 0.3 yuan, and there is a profit margin of 0.1 yuan per kilowatt-hour of electricity.

Although it is profitable, it is definitely not a profiteering industry. It is lower than depositing money in a bank to obtain interest. Generally, companies will not invest money in this field.

In order for solar power to meet the energy needs of existing industries, he believes that at least 10 trillion degrees of annual power generation must be installed, which means that 5,000gw, or 5,000 billion watts of power generation, needs to be installed.

Even if Ye Zishu is rich and powerful, the construction cannot be completed in a short period of time. Even if calculated according to the cost price, the total investment scale is as high as 5 trillion yuan.

With his current strength, he invests 100 billion yuan per year to build a power generation capacity of 100 billion watts, and the annual power generation capacity is 200 billion kwh. If calculated according to the cost price, the annual profit is 56 billion yuan.

That is to say, the annual rate of return is as high as 56%, and it can continue to earn income for 25 years. This rate of return is simply ridiculously high. For Kirin Industrial Group, it is a very worthwhile industry to invest in.

If 100 billion yuan is invested every year and almost all profits are invested in it, it will take 10 years to complete the construction target of 5000GW.

If it only meets the needs of ordinary industrialization and residential electricity consumption, such installed capacity is sufficient, and my country's annual power generation in 2020 will not exceed 10 trillion kWh.

However, most of these electric energy needs to be used to produce food, milk, sugar, fiber and other products. The demand for energy is very large. In fact, the installed capacity is expected to be doubled.

It is difficult for him to build such a large scale at the beginning. After the previous investment gradually pays off, it will be very easy to build these new installed capacity later.

Therefore, he believes that the initial fixed investment of 100 billion yuan per year, plus the 50 billion yuan of income obtained from this 100 billion yuan, lasts for 10 years, and a large amount of income can be obtained later.

He doesn't mind if the country allows such photovoltaic products to be exported, because it is very difficult to imitate photovoltaic products produced by this technology, which is much more difficult than large-scale production of graphene.

It's just that the export price will be three times that of the domestic one, that is to say, the export price per watt will reach 30 yuan, because even at this price, it is very profitable in developed countries.